Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1372664167434481677?s=19

I've noticed the Alberta Liberals polling better than usual. I know they have more history than the BC Conservatives but would I be at all correct in thinking that good polling for them is akin to Federal Conservative voters choosing the BC Conservatives in polls?

[beesley]

In theory Humber River-Black Creek could be a good fit for Carney electorally, but he'd be an awful fit demographically, not that that would stop them.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

It feels like the PC leadership is worried about potentially having a caucus revolt on their hands. There's a significant chunk of the PC base that's seemingly enraged with Ford over all of the new restrictions: formerly big Ford supporters have even taken to calling him a "communist" over them. Not to mention, the PCs aren't exactly working with a super-strong majority to begin with: they require 63 seats to hold down their majority, but they only have 71, so it'd only take 9 of their MPPs to cross the aisle & either sit as independents or even just to threaten their support for a VoNC, which the NDP & Liberals would likely be more than happy with. Their polling numbers have also started to tank over the last week or so, too, if the movement seen in the last few polls is anything to go by.

Thanks for a detailed response.

[beesley]

Rediscovered this gem:

[beesley]

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

I presume you expect Rankin also to be easily re-elected this (next?) year?

[beesley]

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers. 

Polls were all over the place before the 2018 election for the NDP.  Some of their numbers were quite good, and those polls stuck with voters, and gave them credibility to get a surge in their favour.

I remember hearing that the memory of Bob Rae's premiership discouraged voters, particularly 905 residents and obviously older voters from voting NDP. To me it hardly could have been decisive given the scale of Ford's victory but I would ask you what do you think of that suggestion?

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/katiederosayyj/status/1391855853649555457?s=19

Long way off but could be even harder for the BC Liberals to bounce back next time, especially as the bill eliminates the protected ridings in areas like Peace River.

[beesley]

Loewen's resignation letter is fairly scathing.

[beesley]

I was surprised in 2019 at how Calgary-heavy the cabinet was, but I guess it makes all the more sense now - Kenney didn't want to be surrounded by them - he only kept them as critics for unity's sake which was no longer necessary after he won his own mandate. Regardless, these are not the developments you'd see from a strong leader.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1394348332579950592?s=19

Interesting. I don't know enough about Edmonton politics to say whether he's a frontrunner but he'll certainly add to this race. If I recall correctly he was a councillor before his election to Parliament.

[beesley]

In other news I noticed that Alex McPhee, a map maker and one of my favourite Elections Twitter personalities is running for the NDP nod in Cypress Hills-Grasslands, one of the safest Conservative ridings and I believe the second safest outside of Alberta. A few of you here know him.

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1394424931211898883?s=19

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/MumilaaqQaqqaq/status/1395474408433618944?s=19

Surprised, I'm not sure I quite understand why she's not reoffering. Obviously not the best news for the NDP. It must be so difficult to represent a riding like Nunavut, not just due to its size but because of the sheer challenge of it.

[beesley]

Go on Kenney, call an election.

[beesley]

Just came to post this. No specific comments, except bloody hell. I hate defecting so I'll be interested to see what happens and whether her reasoning holds up.

[beesley]

In other selection news Brad Trost, one of the more socially conservative candidates from the 2017 CPC Leadership Election is running to succeed Tom Lukiwski as CPC candidate and likely MP for Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan in rural Saskatchewan. He was defeated for re-selection in his old seat of Saskatoon-University last time round. He doesn't appear to be a clear frontrunner there as of yet.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/JenicaAtwin/status/1404452811912486912?s=19

Ugh, pathetic.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1404519078014984206?s=20

Possibly the Tories' best pickup opportunity, who knows.

[beesley]

I think Liberals take Edmonton Centre.  Maybe Edmonton-Mill Woods but those are only two I could see them winning in Edmonton.  Ironically I think their chances are better in Calgary since although Tories stronger in Calgary than Edmonton, NDP is much weaker there (often get in single digits) thus smaller splits.  Calgary Centre, Calgary-Confederation and Calgary-Skyview I could all see going Liberals although will be tough as Tories probably get over 40% in all of those but at least unlike Edmonton NDP is weak enough its possible to beat Tories even if in low 40s whereas in Edmonton they need to fall into 30s to beat them.

Skyview also has the large Asian population a lot of which stayed with the provincial NDP. I don't know the mathematics of it but that suggests to me the Liberals have a chance there if the national circumstances are right.

[beesley]

I made a thing.



No cookies for guessing why I used the colour blue.

Obviously part of it is simply Conservatives voting in the way you'd expect, but it looks as if the MPs stance here is correlated with their district - obviously Alberta and Saskatchewan are socially conservative but outside of there it mostly seems to be Protestant heavy or Chinese-Canadian areas.

[beesley]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

[beesley]

Does Canada have a true equivalent to U.S "forgotten cities" cities like Des Moines, Iowa (Population 215,000), Boise, Idaho (Population 226,000) or Fargo, North Dakota (Population 121,000) tier ones?

These are insignificant on a national level, and not part of the national consciousness. But they're large conurbations with hundreds of thousands of people in them.

Something I noticed that Canadian cities seem to have much more of a national profile than American ones. Where a city like Saskatoon (Population 273,000) is well known across Canada and a part of the national consciousness. Which I assume is because the population of the country is smaller which leads to less "forgotten cities" so to speak. And thus the urban hierarchy is much more pinpointed and concentrated in centers of prestige. In contrast to the United States where each city has less prestige collectively and is less of a part of the national consciousness and feels more forgotten and inconsequential.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong. What's your perspective on my observation?

A Canadian can answer your first question (North Bay? Red Deer? I don't know if there is one really good example) but I think you've answered your own question. Saskatoon is in the top 20 cities in Canada, but I think saying it is part of the national consciousness could be an exaggeration. Another point is that it is the largest city in one of only 13 regions, and that if Saskatoon was a US city, it would barely crack the top 100, in the same band as the cities you mentioned.

[beesley]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

Is it EKOS you work for? I forget.

[beesley]

Would only matter in a close race, but a lot of the BC Liberals seats are smaller (e.g. the two Peace River seats) and under the new redistribution laws, those seats have their protections removed and will increase in size, while the new seats are likely to be in the Lower Mainland. 8 think North Coast is the only safe NDP seat that is undersized.

[beesley]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island but also just as supposedly left-wing?