Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Saskatchewan stabbings: One of two suspects found dead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-62803059

One of the perpetrators is dead thankfully, other still on the loose w/o further evidence.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I could be wrong, but I bet you it's a guy chemically dependent to crystal methamphetamine doing the stabbing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-06/canada-stabbing-attack-suspects-brothers-manhunt/101408652

Crystal methamphetamine brings out the raw animal in people, and this crime appears, at first glance, to be very primal in nature.


A police forensics team investigates a crime scene after multiple people were killed and injured in a stabbing spree in Weldon, Saskatchewan, Canada on September 4, 2022.(Reuters: David Stobbe)

[RogueBeaver]

Paul Wells says that Freeland might leave politics instead of running to succeed Trudeau, who's not leaving soon and seems eager to fight Poilievre. If she does leave, then my guess is Grits prefer Joly or Anand to Champagne (Mendicino is supposedly also interested, but presumably for a better Cabinet slot). If they're in opposition then Anand has probably lost her seat. IDK which of them would stay for an opposition spell.

[dead0man]

Example A of how gun control does not stop mass killings. 

Homocides in America per 100,000 people with guns: 4.46(1)
Homocides in Canada per 100,000 people with guns: 0.52(2)

even if gun deaths aren't counted America still has a higher homicide rate than Canada and, as you said, Canada has a lot of guns too.  That leads me to an obvious conclusion, I suspect you'll come to a different one.

[Meclazine for Israel]

.....Myles Sanderson, is indeed a meth user, as well as a cocaine addict. You can read more about his... interesting, to say the least, history here.

Reading that article highlighted a key point. He should still be in jail for bashing a Police Officer.

Imagine the geniuses on the parole board trying to explain why they set him free with 30% remaining on his sentence.

[CumbrianLefty]

Example A of how gun control does not stop mass killings. 

No, it just makes them a lot less common.

(and as already said, this number of dead is rare in knife crime - but routine in shootings)

[MaxQue]

.....Myles Sanderson, is indeed a meth user, as well as a cocaine addict. You can read more about his... interesting, to say the least, history here.

Reading that article highlighted a key point. He should still be in jail for bashing a Police Officer.

Imagine the geniuses on the parole board trying to explain why they set him free with 30% remaining on his sentence.

Not much to explain. The law pretty much frees people on probation when they did 2/3 of their jail term, except in very rare cases.

[super6646]

Example A of how gun control does not stop mass killings.  

The empirical record says otherwise. I’m not a gun hater by any means, but less guns generally correlates with less crime.

Anyways what a shame these scum killed themselves. They should’ve rotted in prison for a long time

[Poirot]

From Poilievre twitter:
Our @CPC_HQ team will propose real solutions to fix this Liberal government’s incompetence, tax hikes, and out-of-control inflationary deficits.

What are tax hikes he is talking about? I'm thinking the federal carbon tax but it's only for provinces with no price on carbon. Are there other tax hikes?

[Benjamin Frank]

From Poilievre twitter:
Our @CPC_HQ team will propose real solutions to fix this Liberal government’s incompetence, tax hikes, and out-of-control inflationary deficits.

What are tax hikes he is talking about? I'm thinking the federal carbon tax but it's only for provinces with no price on carbon. Are there other tax hikes?

Payroll taxes are scheduled to increase.

[Benjamin Frank]

So, this is fairly complex, but I regard it as somewhat concerning.

Reporter David Akin was unhappy that Pierre Polievre wouldn't take any questions at his press conference and proceeded to shout over Polievre to ask him about Quebec M.P Alain Rayes who had just quit the Conservative caucus.

So, on the one hand, I think it was inappropriate for Akin to shout over Polievre (and Akin has since apologized), and the question was obviously a bit of a 'gotcha' question, on the other hand, I don't think that excuses Polievre's reaction.

First, Polievre refers to Akin as a 'liberal/Liberal heckler.' The idea that David Akin is a liberal is absurd. Second, Akin did not 'sneak in.'  Third, I don't think there is any question that Polievre regards Akin with a sneering dismissal similar to all right wing authororitarian leaders.

It should be noted that Polievre changed the plan on the fly when he said that he would take two questions, one in French and one in English, the reporters attending the press conference were originally told there would be no questions.

https://twitter.com/wdiazberthiaume/status/1569764043036000264
 

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1569749344211042304

https://twitter.com/JETrudeau/status/1570093172168040450

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1570183298160402432

https://twitter.com/CPC_HQ/status/1570237711721836545

[King of Kensington]

NDP is running an attack ad against Poilievre, as they feel as he's cutting into the working class base:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/who-is-the-real-pierre-poilievre-ndp-launch-attack-ad-against-new-conservative-leader-1.6075829

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

NDP is running an attack ad against Poilievre, as they feel as he's cutting into the working class base:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/who-is-the-real-pierre-poilievre-ndp-launch-attack-ad-against-new-conservative-leader-1.6075829

That's very demure and forgettable for an attack ad... on the other hand, it basically cost them nothing. They didn't really "advertise" it in the traditional sense of buying paid advertising time (or in the context of social media, buying "sponsored" slots). They basically just posted it on their social media and relied on retweets to do the job for them. It's a pretty smart, cost-effective tactic, because the only thing it cost them was to pay some tech-savvy NDP staffer (if not the free labour of some intern).

Come to think of it, that's Poilievre's trick too - bite-sized clips that are longer than traditional ads, but short enough to keep people's attention. People share/retweet/repost it, the algorithm bumps it up, more people repost it, and so on.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Angus Reid's first PP-era poll:

CPC: 37
LPC: 30
NDP: 20
BQ: 7
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
OTH: 1

As the toplines suggest, Poilievre is eating the Bernier's lunch - however, the regionals suggest that this isn't just a prairie bump skewing the national numbers. 7-point CPC lead in BC, 3-point lead in ON, tight margins out east, and we're seeing a pattern of polls suggesting that the CPC is crossing 20% in Quebec. These numbers would likely result in a strong CPC minority.

The gender gap is quite something. Nearly half of men intend to vote CPC, whereas with women, that number is less than 30%. Men between 18-34 are at 48% CPC, women of the same age are 23%, that's pretty stunning. I think there's definitely something to the "Poilievre appeal to young men" thing that goes beyond the "incel school shooter" meme.

[mileslunn]

Angus Reid's first PP-era poll:

CPC: 37
LPC: 30
NDP: 20
BQ: 7
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
OTH: 1

As the toplines suggest, Poilievre is eating the Bernier's lunch - however, the regionals suggest that this isn't just a prairie bump skewing the national numbers. 7-point CPC lead in BC, 3-point lead in ON, tight margins out east, and we're seeing a pattern of polls suggesting that the CPC is crossing 20% in Quebec. These numbers would likely result in a strong CPC minority.

The gender gap is quite something. Nearly half of men intend to vote CPC, whereas with women, that number is less than 30%. Men between 18-34 are at 48% CPC, women of the same age are 23%, that's pretty stunning. I think there's definitely something to the "Poilievre appeal to young men" thing that goes beyond the "incel school shooter" meme.

I have heard gender gap widest at younger ages.  Part of that could be people get married later or could be cultural changes where idea spouse votes same way less common than in past.  I know in US, wife voting Democrat, husband Republican is quite common, far more than in past. 

UK ironically is more age than gender.  There Tories are under 20% amongst millennials mind you comparing a party in power for over a decade to one in opposition kind of apples to oranges.

Quebec probably would mean few seat changes as 15-30% is sort of 10 seat Tory zone and under 15% start losing seats and have to cross 30% threshold before a whole bunch of seats start flipping.  High enough to pick up a few close ones, most likely Saguenay region and maybe extend the Quebec City region out a bit.

I have heard right wing radio in Quebec City big reason so much more conservative and seems to make sense as Conservative ridings in Quebec almost end exactly where you would lose radio signal from Quebec City

Ontario looks good on surface but big risk is does rural Ontario see similar shift to rural Midwest.  Rural Midwest under Obama was quite competitive and GOP in 50s mostly much like Tories in Ontario.  Under Trump started getting closer to 70% so if Tories start running up margins in rural areas could be problem.  Mind you rural Ontario even if solidly conservative is still diverse.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of similarities with Midwest, but Central Ontario is more tourism and lots of ex city people so don't see those type of blowouts happening there.

BC depends heavily on strategic voting as on surface looks good for Tories but if lots of strategic voting could be closer.

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

[MaxQue]

BC Liberals propose renaming themselves BC United. Membership vote to happen later this year.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals propose renaming themselves BC United. Membership vote to happen later this year.

Probably passes but does little to help.  Almost everyone in BC knows difference and virtually on one associates BC Liberals with federal Liberals so party needs to go through renewal and also hope NDP becomes less popular to win.

[Хahar 🤔]

Oh God, it's not even the United Party, so far as I can tell. Isn't BC United Wayne Rooney's team? Just a brutal name.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh God, it's not even the United Party, so far as I can tell. Isn't BC United Wayne Rooney's team? Just a brutal name.

I'll move to BC, donate the maximum amount to BC United every year, and vote for them in the next election if they change the title of the leader to "Striker"

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

Something interesting I've heard re: Newfoundland is that the large number of Alberta expats who came back to the rock brought their newfound conservatism with them. Surely that doesn't explain the whole shift, but it has probably played a role.

[Benjamin Frank]

Oh God, it's not even the United Party, so far as I can tell. Isn't BC United Wayne Rooney's team? Just a brutal name.

I assume 'party' would be added by the media and the voters.

I don't know if they or anybody else know the history. I'm back at work so I can know longer hear Keith Baldrey on the radio, but there is a fairly recent history in British Columbia behind the name 'United Party.' I don't know if there was a history with that name prior to that.

In terms of the politics of areas changing, I think most people would be surprised to know that Vancouver Island was not an NDP area provincially anyway until starting with Dave Barrett's win in the 1972 election. That brought a whole bunch of New Democrats to southern Vancouver Island.

The North of British Columbia was more competitive politically, but the first time the NDP won the North West riding of Prince Rupert was in the 1972 election when Graham Lea won the riding.

He ran for the NDP leadership to replace Dave Barrett in 1984 but was an also ran. The winner was a left winger (probably the second most left wing candidate after Margaret Burrell) named Bob Skelly who came up the middle between the two front runners, David Vickers and Bill King.  

According to Lea's own telling, he was listening to Skelly's victory speech and Skelly was stumbling around saying "I'm going to need the help of everybody up on this stage with me."

And Lea was thinking to himself "Bob's a nice guy, but he's not leadership material. What happened here? I'm not sticking around to help you."

Shortly after, Lea quit the NDP and sat as an independent. Shortly after that, he joined up with a few of the people who helped him in the leadership campaign to form the United Party.

About a year after that, Lea merged the United Party with the B.C Progressive Conservatives. The Progressive Conservatives had been a significant party up to about a decade prior, and were led at the time of this merger by a former mayor of Victoria named Peter Pollen (but no Mary) so, having a credible leader and now an MLA in the legislature seemed to show they were on the upswing, but when the 1986 came, for some reason the party had fallen apart and Lea ended up not running for reelection.

Anyway, sorry to invert the point like Rachel Maddow does, but at least I didn't take 20 minutes to get to the point.

The Vickers/King divide was the more traditional division, but it is kind of strange nontheless. When the CCF became the NDP merging with the Canadian Labour Congress, there were a number of New Democrats who opposed this merger not wanting to make what they themselves referred to as a 'special interest group' of labour into a formal part of the CCF coalition.

The odd part is that many of the people opposed like Bill King were either union officials or like Dave Barrett had been associated with unions (Dave Barrett was a civil servant, the Director of Training of probation officers at the Haney institution, was threatened with being fired when he put in his candidacy for the CCF. The lawsuit over this resulted in lower level public servants being allowed to run politically without having to quit or get fired.)

The supporters of this merger were people like Tom Berger and David Vickers. However, despite that, oddly both Berger and Vickers were accused of being 'closet liberals' and not genuine CCFers or NDPers. Berger won the NDP leadership shortly before the 1969 election over Dave Barrett and prior to that was a very high profile lawyer despite being only in his mid 30s.

David Vickers was similarly a high profile lawyer having been the Deputy Attorney General in the Barrett government, but many New Democrats were suspicious of him because he had known federal Liberal connections. Vickers confirmed this to many of them when he remained as Deputy Attorney General for around one year after Social Credit won the 1975 election.

Vickers likely lost the leadership in the end because of this. Vickers had never been elected to any office prior to running for the leadership, but that wasn't a handicap as Bill King had lost his seat in the 1983 election.

Following this, Mike Harcourt was with the Berger/Vickers faction right down to being accused of being a 'closet liberal' although he won the NDP leadership by acclamation. Ultimately that seemed to hurt him as he never had to sell himself to the membership which gave the party officials elected by the members more credibility.  Glen Clark was with the Dave Barrett/Bill King faction even though Clark too had been a union official.

Ujjal Dosanjh was with the Berger/Vickers/Harcourt faction with former provincial Liberal and PDA leader (People's Democratic Alliance) Gordon Wilson more or less recruited to run against him for the Barrett/Berger faction. (Gordon Wilson has supported pretty much every spectrum in British Columbia politics except for the fringe extremes.)  Due to various issues, Wilson dropped out of the leadership race shortly before the convention. That the race ended up as between Dosanjh and Corky Evans, who had also run against Glen Clark for the leadership on more of a rural theme, along with the long passage of time, pretty much ended the CCF/NDP factional rivalry.

The factions with the B.C NDP are now more over resource development as we see in the current leadership race.

[Benjamin Frank]

Angus Reid's first PP-era poll:

CPC: 37
LPC: 30
NDP: 20
BQ: 7
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
OTH: 1

As the toplines suggest, Poilievre is eating the Bernier's lunch - however, the regionals suggest that this isn't just a prairie bump skewing the national numbers. 7-point CPC lead in BC, 3-point lead in ON, tight margins out east, and we're seeing a pattern of polls suggesting that the CPC is crossing 20% in Quebec. These numbers would likely result in a strong CPC minority.

The gender gap is quite something. Nearly half of men intend to vote CPC, whereas with women, that number is less than 30%. Men between 18-34 are at 48% CPC, women of the same age are 23%, that's pretty stunning. I think there's definitely something to the "Poilievre appeal to young men" thing that goes beyond the "incel school shooter" meme.

I have heard gender gap widest at younger ages.  Part of that could be people get married later or could be cultural changes where idea spouse votes same way less common than in past.  I know in US, wife voting Democrat, husband Republican is quite common, far more than in past. 

UK ironically is more age than gender.  There Tories are under 20% amongst millennials mind you comparing a party in power for over a decade to one in opposition kind of apples to oranges.

Quebec probably would mean few seat changes as 15-30% is sort of 10 seat Tory zone and under 15% start losing seats and have to cross 30% threshold before a whole bunch of seats start flipping.  High enough to pick up a few close ones, most likely Saguenay region and maybe extend the Quebec City region out a bit.

I have heard right wing radio in Quebec City big reason so much more conservative and seems to make sense as Conservative ridings in Quebec almost end exactly where you would lose radio signal from Quebec City

Ontario looks good on surface but big risk is does rural Ontario see similar shift to rural Midwest.  Rural Midwest under Obama was quite competitive and GOP in 50s mostly much like Tories in Ontario.  Under Trump started getting closer to 70% so if Tories start running up margins in rural areas could be problem.  Mind you rural Ontario even if solidly conservative is still diverse.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of similarities with Midwest, but Central Ontario is more tourism and lots of ex city people so don't see those type of blowouts happening there.

BC depends heavily on strategic voting as on surface looks good for Tories but if lots of strategic voting could be closer.

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

One thing that I find interesting is the discrepancy between support for the PPC and the provicinal Quebec Conservatives. The PPC got what 4% of the vote or something in Quebec, but here we see these provincial Conservatives at between 15-20%  It certainly shouldn't be the case that most Federal Conservatives in Quebec are supporting these provincial Conservatives, because the Federal Conservatives are more alligned with the CAQ.

Of course there is the Poilievre factor right now, but should it not be the case that PPC members should be asking themselves if Bernier is a liability for their party?

[mileslunn]

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

Something interesting I've heard re: Newfoundland is that the large number of Alberta expats who came back to the rock brought their newfound conservatism with them. Surely that doesn't explain the whole shift, but it has probably played a role.

I think also feeling a left behind and feeling Liberals are too much of a big city party.  Fairly or not, I think Liberals and NDP have image they are large city parties whereas Tories more rural one so that probably plays some role as not always ideology but also views on which party most understands my issues.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Angus Reid's first PP-era poll:

CPC: 37
LPC: 30
NDP: 20
BQ: 7
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
OTH: 1

As the toplines suggest, Poilievre is eating the Bernier's lunch - however, the regionals suggest that this isn't just a prairie bump skewing the national numbers. 7-point CPC lead in BC, 3-point lead in ON, tight margins out east, and we're seeing a pattern of polls suggesting that the CPC is crossing 20% in Quebec. These numbers would likely result in a strong CPC minority.

The gender gap is quite something. Nearly half of men intend to vote CPC, whereas with women, that number is less than 30%. Men between 18-34 are at 48% CPC, women of the same age are 23%, that's pretty stunning. I think there's definitely something to the "Poilievre appeal to young men" thing that goes beyond the "incel school shooter" meme.

I have heard gender gap widest at younger ages.  Part of that could be people get married later or could be cultural changes where idea spouse votes same way less common than in past.  I know in US, wife voting Democrat, husband Republican is quite common, far more than in past. 

UK ironically is more age than gender.  There Tories are under 20% amongst millennials mind you comparing a party in power for over a decade to one in opposition kind of apples to oranges.

Quebec probably would mean few seat changes as 15-30% is sort of 10 seat Tory zone and under 15% start losing seats and have to cross 30% threshold before a whole bunch of seats start flipping.  High enough to pick up a few close ones, most likely Saguenay region and maybe extend the Quebec City region out a bit.

I have heard right wing radio in Quebec City big reason so much more conservative and seems to make sense as Conservative ridings in Quebec almost end exactly where you would lose radio signal from Quebec City

Ontario looks good on surface but big risk is does rural Ontario see similar shift to rural Midwest.  Rural Midwest under Obama was quite competitive and GOP in 50s mostly much like Tories in Ontario.  Under Trump started getting closer to 70% so if Tories start running up margins in rural areas could be problem.  Mind you rural Ontario even if solidly conservative is still diverse.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of similarities with Midwest, but Central Ontario is more tourism and lots of ex city people so don't see those type of blowouts happening there.

BC depends heavily on strategic voting as on surface looks good for Tories but if lots of strategic voting could be closer.

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

One thing that I find interesting is the discrepancy between support for the PPC and the provicinal Quebec Conservatives. The PPC got what 4% of the vote or something in Quebec, but here we see these provincial Conservatives at between 15-20%  It certainly shouldn't be the case that most Federal Conservatives in Quebec are supporting these provincial Conservatives, because the Federal Conservatives are more alligned with the CAQ.

Of course there is the Poilievre factor right now, but should it not be the case that PPC members should be asking themselves if Bernier is a liability for their party?

I question the premise that the federal CPC's closest equivalent in Quebec is CAQ. In 2018 this would have been true, but Legault has really governed from the centre in many ways and is strongly opposed to the CPC's pipeline/environment policy (which is a defining issue for Quebec in federal politics). He did tepidly endorse O'Toole in 2021, and that endorsement seemed to make no difference, which is telling.

More than that though, the rise of the PCQ shouldn't be understood as a Quebec equivalent to the PPC. The COVID measures alienated a large number of right-wing voters who had previously voted CAQ, and that drove many to the PCQ. But it's also the emergence of a "movement conservative" party in Quebec, something not previously seen. The people in the Capitale-Nationale area who vote CPC because they believe in a standard Anglo-American conservative ideology now have a provincial equivalent in PCQ - CAQ is not an equivalent.