Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

I don't dispute that the center can always shift and that sustained large government budget deficits are a major potential cause for political shifts, especially if inflation isn't sufficiently addressed, however, I think the generally right wing punditocracy in Canada is simply too right wing to understand that it's them not in the center at present, and not the majority of Canadians.

More evidence of punditocracy centrism:

"The Liberal Party formed a minority government based on only 33 per cent of the people who voted in the last election. Our government just recently moved even further left with a formal confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP.

Where does that leave the majority of us in the middle? Not in a place that is sustainable for Canada, nor close to the future we deserve if we built it from the sensible centre."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-can-do-great-things-but-the-sensible-centre-mustnt-be/#_=_

50.44% voted Liberal or NDP, yet the "majority of us in the middle" are left out?

[MaxQue]

I don't dispute that the center can always shift and that sustained large government budget deficits are a major potential cause for political shifts, especially if inflation isn't sufficiently addressed, however, I think the generally right wing punditocracy in Canada is simply too right wing to understand that it's them not in the center at present, and not the majority of Canadians.

More evidence of punditocracy centrism:

"The Liberal Party formed a minority government based on only 33 per cent of the people who voted in the last election. Our government just recently moved even further left with a formal confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP.

Where does that leave the majority of us in the middle? Not in a place that is sustainable for Canada, nor close to the future we deserve if we built it from the sensible centre."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-can-do-great-things-but-the-sensible-centre-mustnt-be/#_=_

50.44% voted Liberal or NDP, yet the "majority of us in the middle" are left out?

Also, if you are writing in the Globe and Mail, you are simply not in the middle.

[DabbingSanta]

I don't dispute that the center can always shift and that sustained large government budget deficits are a major potential cause for political shifts, especially if inflation isn't sufficiently addressed, however, I think the generally right wing punditocracy in Canada is simply too right wing to understand that it's them not in the center at present, and not the majority of Canadians.

More evidence of punditocracy centrism:

"The Liberal Party formed a minority government based on only 33 per cent of the people who voted in the last election. Our government just recently moved even further left with a formal confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP.

Where does that leave the majority of us in the middle? Not in a place that is sustainable for Canada, nor close to the future we deserve if we built it from the sensible centre."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-can-do-great-things-but-the-sensible-centre-mustnt-be/#_=_

50.44% voted Liberal or NDP, yet the "majority of us in the middle" are left out?

This argument fails to address that there will be some Lib to PC voters in this election.  Moderates do not want a coalition government, radicals do.

The left is pulling similar tactics in the Ontario provincial election, and needless to say, this is rallying the base behind Ford more than anything.  I was going to vote minor party or sit out, but not any more.  A Liberal or NDP government will bring a return of masks, lockdowns, and communism.

[MaxQue]

I don't dispute that the center can always shift and that sustained large government budget deficits are a major potential cause for political shifts, especially if inflation isn't sufficiently addressed, however, I think the generally right wing punditocracy in Canada is simply too right wing to understand that it's them not in the center at present, and not the majority of Canadians.

More evidence of punditocracy centrism:

"The Liberal Party formed a minority government based on only 33 per cent of the people who voted in the last election. Our government just recently moved even further left with a formal confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP.

Where does that leave the majority of us in the middle? Not in a place that is sustainable for Canada, nor close to the future we deserve if we built it from the sensible centre."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-can-do-great-things-but-the-sensible-centre-mustnt-be/#_=_

50.44% voted Liberal or NDP, yet the "majority of us in the middle" are left out?

This argument fails to address that there will be some Lib to PC voters in this election.  Moderates do not want a coalition government, radicals do.

The left is pulling similar tactics in the Ontario provincial election, and needless to say, this is rallying the base behind Ford more than anything.  I was going to vote minor party or sit out, but not any more.  A Liberal or NDP government will bring a return of masks, lockdowns, and communism.

But, you're honest enough to admit you are not a centrist, unlike right-wing pundits pretending to be centrists. Of course the deal offends people on the right. Does it offend centrists, through?

[DabbingSanta]

I don't dispute that the center can always shift and that sustained large government budget deficits are a major potential cause for political shifts, especially if inflation isn't sufficiently addressed, however, I think the generally right wing punditocracy in Canada is simply too right wing to understand that it's them not in the center at present, and not the majority of Canadians.

More evidence of punditocracy centrism:

"The Liberal Party formed a minority government based on only 33 per cent of the people who voted in the last election. Our government just recently moved even further left with a formal confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP.

Where does that leave the majority of us in the middle? Not in a place that is sustainable for Canada, nor close to the future we deserve if we built it from the sensible centre."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-can-do-great-things-but-the-sensible-centre-mustnt-be/#_=_

50.44% voted Liberal or NDP, yet the "majority of us in the middle" are left out?

This argument fails to address that there will be some Lib to PC voters in this election.  Moderates do not want a coalition government, radicals do.

The left is pulling similar tactics in the Ontario provincial election, and needless to say, this is rallying the base behind Ford more than anything.  I was going to vote minor party or sit out, but not any more.  A Liberal or NDP government will bring a return of masks, lockdowns, and communism.

But, you're honest enough to admit you are not a centrist, unlike right-wing pundits pretending to be centrists. Of course the deal offends people on the right. Does it offend centrists, through?

You are correct, I am not a centrist, and how these actions will impact these voters is beyond me.  We saw how 2019 and 2021 played out, so my faith in Canada actually making the right decision is pretty limited.  However, the increasingly extreme power grabs in the past year with the Ottawa convoy and now forming a de-facto coalition might change a few minds...

[King of Kensington]

44% of Canadians polled (and 48% of those aware) think it's a good deal for Canada vs. 25-27% opposed.   

There is very little opposition from partisan Liberals (74% good, 6% bad).  Seems like there are very few of these imagined blue Liberals anymore.  More opposition in the NDP (15%).

https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-liberal-ndp-deal/

Majority governments usually obtain around 40% of the vote or so, so hard to say this deal lacks a "mandate."   

[DC Al Fine]

44% of Canadians polled (and 48% of those aware) think it's a good deal for Canada vs. 25-27% opposed.   

There is very little opposition from partisan Liberals (74% good, 6% bad).  Seems like there are very few of these imagined blue Liberals anymore.  More opposition in the NDP (15%).

https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-liberal-ndp-deal/

Majority governments usually obtain around 40% of the vote or so, so hard to say this deal lacks a "mandate."   

Globe and Mail in shambles

[beesley]

The two New Brunswick MLAs representing the People's Alliance have left the party to join the governing Progressive Conservatives, and the party is to be deregistered.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it went from 81% liberal in 2015 to just 46% in 2021.

[Estrella]

What happend in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it went from 81% liberal in 2015 to just 46% in 2021.

Newfoundland Newfoundlanded, that's what happened.

Under normal circumstances Liberals dominate, but as a parochial province where personality matters more than ideology, Newfoundland is more than willing to throw them out when they do something unpopular. The province has a thing for electing Liberals by Soviet margins when they do well nationally and coming within a couple hundred votes of voting them out the next election. This isn't even the most extreme example: Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte went from 82% Liberal in 1993 to just below 40% in 1997. That year, Liberal vote fell by 31 points in Bonavista—Trinity—Conception, 42 points in Burin—St. George's and 43 points in the aforementioned Humber.

These 1997 landslide near-defeats, if you can call them that, were due to Chrétien's cuts to employment insurance that hurt Newfie's seasonal fisheries workers and such, but the recent falls in Liberal vote might be due to the province becoming more like the rest of Atlantic Canada and slowly forgetting the old days of Smallwood. His basically Third World socialist and not exactly democratic Liberal regime was hugely popular up until the 1970s, and the tradition of clientelism made the province vote Liberal by default. Perhaps Liberals will start doing merely well in Newfoundland, rather than dominating.

[King of Kensington]

Rift between corporate Canada and Trudeau (for Globe subscribers):

"Finance Department veterans say the Prime Minister and his key advisers seem to talk more often to consultants and academics than to business leaders.
Some senior executives – a constituency that is, admittedly, not accustomed to being ignored – find this government aloof and indifferent to their advice and concerns. And while none were oblivious to the ethical risks governments face when appearing to accommodate corporate or private interests unduly, their overwhelming impression was that their interests – as leaders, as employers, as institutions – were treated as lesser priorities.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-the-big-rift-corporate-canada-wants-ottawa-to-focus-on-real-growth-not/#_=_

[MaxQue]

Rift between corporate Canada and Trudeau (for Globe subscribers):

"Finance Department veterans say the Prime Minister and his key advisers seem to talk more often to consultants and academics than to business leaders.
Some senior executives – a constituency that is, admittedly, not accustomed to being ignored – find this government aloof and indifferent to their advice and concerns. And while none were oblivious to the ethical risks governments face when appearing to accommodate corporate or private interests unduly, their overwhelming impression was that their interests – as leaders, as employers, as institutions – were treated as lesser priorities.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-the-big-rift-corporate-canada-wants-ottawa-to-focus-on-real-growth-not/#_=_

Oh, no, the poor snowflakes are hurt by being treated like everyone else.

[DC Al Fine]

What happend in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it went from 81% liberal in 2015 to just 46% in 2021.

Newfoundland Newfoundlanded, that's what happened.

Under normal circumstances Liberals dominate, but as a parochial province where personality matters more than ideology, Newfoundland is more than willing to throw them out when they do something unpopular. The province has a thing for electing Liberals by Soviet margins when they do well nationally and coming within a couple hundred votes of voting them out the next election. This isn't even the most extreme example: Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte went from 82% Liberal in 1993 to just below 40% in 1997. That year, Liberal vote fell by 31 points in Bonavista—Trinity—Conception, 42 points in Burin—St. George's and 43 points in the aforementioned Humber.

These 1997 landslide near-defeats, if you can call them that, were due to Chrétien's cuts to employment insurance that hurt Newfie's seasonal fisheries workers and such, but the recent falls in Liberal vote might be due to the province becoming more like the rest of Atlantic Canada and slowly forgetting the old days of Smallwood. His basically Third World socialist and not exactly democratic Liberal regime was hugely popular up until the 1970s, and the tradition of clientelism made the province vote Liberal by default. Perhaps Liberals will start doing merely well in Newfoundland, rather than dominating.

All good stuff.

Will briefly add that it's best to look at Atlantic Canadian election results through the lense of local politics; super parochial, extremely candidate based, and prone to wild swings even by Canadian standards.

[King of Kensington]

So how does the "1%" in Canada vote?

Conservatives overperform with high income voters, but do worse among the university educated.

Liberals overperform with high education voters (i.e. "the Brahmin left" though I prefer "Brahmin liberal" - the rich vote for liberal not social democratic parties).

The 1% in Canada are overwhelmingly university educated, so it's interesting to know what prevails in voting patterns.

My guess is fairly evenly split between Liberals and Conservatives, but less likely to vote for other parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

So how does the "1%" in Canada vote?

Conservatives overperform with high income voters, but do worse among the university educated.

Liberals overperform with high education voters (i.e. "the Brahmin left" though I prefer "Brahmin liberal" - the rich vote for liberal not social democratic parties).

The 1% in Canada are overwhelmingly university educated, so it's interesting to know what prevails in voting patterns.

My guess is fairly evenly split between Liberals and Conservatives, but less likely to vote for other parties.

You can tell where the richest neighbourhoods in Toronto are, because they're the only parts of the city that consistently vote Conservative, though not overwhelmingly so. Bridle Path, Forest Hill and York Mills are blue blotches in a sea of red.

[King of Kensington]

Found some interesting data on difference between top 10% and remaining 90%.

1963-1968  Liberals +10, NDP -4, Conservatives -8

1974-1979  Conservatives +6, Liberals -2, NDP -5

1980-1988  Conservatives +7, Liberals -2, NDP -4

1993-1997  Conservatives +6, Liberals 0, NDP -3 (probably Reform + PC but unclear)

2000-2008  Conservatives +4, Liberals +2, NDP -6

2011-2019  Conservatives +7, Liberals +4, NDP -8

Source:  Amory Gethin, Clara Martinez-Toledano, Thomas Piketty, Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities

Conservatives did best among high income, with exception of Diefenbaker interlude when party was more populist, non-metropolitan and did well in Atlantic Canada as well as the West.  Liberals increasingly have the "Brahmin" base (they get around 50% of postgrads I believe).  I suspect PCs in 1970s and 1980s did better with educated when university grads were a smaller, more elite group and the correlation between affluence and conservatism was stronger.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Found some interesting data on difference between top 10% and remaining 90%.

1963-1968  Liberals +10, NDP -4, Conservatives -8

1974-1979  Conservatives +6, Liberals -2, NDP -5

1980-1988  Conservatives +7, Liberals -2, NDP -4

1993-1997  Conservatives +6, Liberals 0, NDP -3 (probably Reform + PC but unclear)

2000-2008  Conservatives +4, Liberals +2, NDP -6

2011-2019  Conservatives +7, Liberals +4, NDP -8

Source:  Amory Gethin, Clara Martinez-Toledano, Thomas Piketty, Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities

Conservatives did best among high income, with exception of Diefenbaker interlude when party was more populist, non-metropolitan and did well in Atlantic Canada as well as the West.  Liberals increasingly have the "Brahmin" base (they get around 50% of postgrads I believe).  I suspect PCs in 1970s and 1980s did better with educated when university grads were a smaller, more elite group and the correlation between affluence and conservatism was stronger.

I understand the weirdness of Diefenbaker-era populist toryism is probably the main factor here, but it's so weird to think that there was a period when a conservative party underperformed a socialist party among the top 10% in any society.

[King of Kensington]

The full chapter is here:

https://wid.world/document/political-cleavages-class-structures-and-the-politics-of-old-and-new-minorities-in-australia-canada-and-new-zealand-1963-2019-world-inequality-lab-wp-2021-05/

NDP initially did better among skilled working class I believe.  It did best among 4th quintile in 60s, 2nd quintile in 70s and 80s.  Now it does best among the lowest quintile. 

Conservatives since 70s do best in top quintile.

[King of Kensington]

It's funny when people talk about the "good old days" of those thoughtful, reasonable, lovable Red Tories like Diefenbaker and Stanfield.  Dief hated Stanfield with a passion, was very different in temperament and style, represented a very different wing of the party etc.  And Stanfield represented the Bay Street wing, sort of like the Rockefeller Republicans in the US.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's funny when people talk about the "good old days" of those thoughtful, reasonable, lovable Red Tories like Diefenbaker and Stanfield.  Dief hated Stanfield with a passion, was very different in temperament and style, represented a very different wing of the party etc.  And Stanfield represented the Bay Street wing, sort of like the Rockefeller Republicans in the US.

I find that it's mostly Liberals who praise the good old days of Red Tories, kind of like how Candice Bergen has suddenly become Paul Martin's biggest fan. I guarantee you Bergen never voted for Paul Martin, and most of the latter-day Stanfield nostalgists probably would have voted for Pierre Trudeau.

[DC Al Fine]

It's funny when people talk about the "good old days" of those thoughtful, reasonable, lovable Red Tories like Diefenbaker and Stanfield.  Dief hated Stanfield with a passion, was very different in temperament and style, represented a very different wing of the party etc.  And Stanfield represented the Bay Street wing, sort of like the Rockefeller Republicans in the US.

I find that it's mostly Liberals who praise the good old days of Red Tories, kind of like how Candice Bergen has suddenly become Paul Martin's biggest fan. I guarantee you Bergen never voted for Paul Martin, and most of the latter-day Stanfield nostalgists probably would have voted for Pierre Trudeau.

Quite a few examples on Twitter of Boomers who want the return of Charest but voted for Chretien in '97

[Hatman 🍁]

I thought it anything, the NDP's support was less polarized by income than in the past when it was seen as more of a "socialist" party. I wonder if this is due to the increase in support among younger people?

[King of Kensington]

I think age is a big factor, and the declining number of workers in unionized industries.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I thought it anything, the NDP's support was less polarized by income than in the past when it was seen as more of a "socialist" party. I wonder if this is due to the increase in support among younger people?

The bulk of NDP support in those days probably came from union workers, who aren't necessarily "poor". Working-class =/= poor, particularly in heavily-unionized sectors. A solidly middle-class auto factory worker in Oshawa who negotiated his wages through UAW would have a much more direct link to the NDP than, say, a lobster fisher in rural New Brunswick who made less money, but made a living based on the market price of his lobsters.

As for now, yeah it's probably the age thing. Most polls show that NDP support is heavily skewed to the 18-34 age group. And on average, young people also have smaller incomes and definitely less wealth and property. And even then, my experience with urban 20-somethings in southern Ontario is that yuppies are more likely to vote Liberal, and to a lesser extent Tory, while the NDP is more popular with "creative class" types, social workers, etc who obviously make less than the former.

[King of Kensington]

You can see this in the poll by polls in inner Toronto.  The more "hipster" areas with young populations and early-stage gentrification are more NDP (i.e. Dufferin Grove, Parkdale, Kensington Market etc.), but the more "mature", affluent, established areas (like the Annex or North Riverdale) are Liberal.