Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

I doubt it's a coincidence that Bergen, the MP from the riding with the highest number of votes going PPC, was made the interim leader and has been unabashedly pro-trucker. The Tories probably figure that the Liberal and Trudeau brands are going to be so tarnished by the time the next election comes around that they'd lose to literally anyone (see: Premier Doug Ford), whereas if the PPC is able to seriously contest rural seats then the Conservatives have basically no path to a majority. However controversial they may be, nobody (except maybe traumatized downtown Ottawans who never vote Tory anyway) is going to be casting their ballot based on trucker protesters in a year, much like how the rail blockades had minimal impact on the last election.

The only real potential for a backfire would be if Trudeau suddenly decided to hold an election in the middle of the CPC leadership race, while they're still busy pandering to their base. In that case they'd actually have to deal with the disconnect now when people actually care, but I'm pretty sure it would also be completely unprecedented and early elections typically backfire on Prime Ministers. Still, with the inflation and supply chain issues I have a hard time imagining Trudeau having any better luck a year from now and at least right now there is a(n increasingly narrow) majority supporting mandates and lockdowns.

I think it's almost certainly a coincidence. Although Candice Bergen is one of the 'loudest voice' flamethrowers she was a (junior) cabinet minister under Stephen Harper, the House Leader under Andrew Scheer and then Deputy Leader under Erin O'Toole.

So, she has connections to all wings of the party and was easily the most obvious choice as interim leader given her qualifications.

[King of Kensington]

Lots of ultraconservative Mennonite communities in her riding with low levels of vaccination.

[T'Chenka]

RIP Canada. Maybe in the short term the conservatives going far right helps the Liberals but no party can stay in power forever and eventually the trucker lunatic party will be in charge again.

The citizens WILL NOT vote in a crazy trucker party, at least, not unless they have a leader that condones the insanity. Canadians on average just do not approve of MAGA deplorable behaviour and won't vote in a Prime Minister that's okay with it.

As Laddicus Finch said, conseratives can't win the culture war up here.

I think you meant a similar but very different word there?

Oops. Yep. Sleep deprivation is fun.

[T'Chenka]

Lots of ultraconservative Mennonite communities in her riding with low levels of vaccination.

This always confused me, as vaccines were invented over 1700 years after Jesus died. God and Jesus didn't have anything to say about vaccines.

[2952-0-0]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/CTM2201-Trucker-Protest-RELEASE-2-.pdf

In-depth poll that indicates that public opinion has swung sharply against the protest. It segments Canadians among their opinions about public health rules, and measures a change in their opinion last week.

Astoundingly, the "soft anti restrictions" demographic has swung 17 points against the protest since last week. This group also swung 31 points against the *way* of the protest.

If this continues and spreads, then Trudeau will have an overwhelming mandate for his own "just watch me" moment. If he does that, I won't put it past him to call a federal election immediately afterward, with a slogan of "law and order". I don't think the Conservative Party could survive that as we know it.

[T'Chenka]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/CTM2201-Trucker-Protest-RELEASE-2-.pdf

In-depth poll that indicates that public opinion has swung sharply against the protest. It segments Canadians among their opinions about public health rules, and measures a change in their opinion last week.

Astoundingly, the "soft anti restrictions" demographic has swung 17 points against the protest since last week. This group also swung 31 points against the *way* of the protest.

Thank god. I've been worried that the pandemic was a gateway to further political Americanization of this country. This is a good sign.

[CumbrianLefty]

Guys, surely Trudeau isn't going to call *another* snap election given how the most recent one gave him a genuine fright.

[DC Al Fine]

Guys, surely Trudeau isn't going to call *another* snap election given how the most recent one gave him a genuine fright.

Multiple recent polls have the Trudeau Liberals at sub-30%. Not exactly "call a snap election six months after the last one" territory.

[2952-0-0]

Of course not, but if something happens that forces a "just watch me" moment, then it's foolish to think he won't take advantage of it.

The Ottawa police have now toughened their rhetoric and declared the gathering on Parliament Hill to be illegal and dangerous, and will be taking measures to disperse it. They're also promising to erect road blocks and shut down highways and bridges to prevent additional hangers on. Also, they're promising much more police presence.

We'll see how far this is put into actual practice. If this can be done without too much fuss, then it will be best for everyone. If not, then...

[Central Lake]

The number of CPC memberships has increased over the last couple of days according to Global News.

[MaxQue]

The number of CPC memberships has increased over the last couple of days according to Global News.

Probably PPC entryism, Militant-style.

[Lief 🗽]

RIP Canada. Maybe in the short term the conservatives going far right helps the Liberals but no party can stay in power forever and eventually the trucker lunatic party will be in charge again.

The citizens WILL NOT vote in a crazy trucker party, at least, not unless they have a leader that condones condemns the insanity. Canadians on average just do not approve of MAGA deplorable behaviour and won't vote in a Prime Minister that's okay with it.

As Laddicus Finch said, conseratives can't win the culture war up here.

I hope you're right, but a lot of people said the same about Trumpism in the United States, and at least here he needed to cobble together 47% of the vote or so to win. Conservatives only need like 35-40% to win, so they can still take power even if 60% of the country finds them repugnant.

[DC Al Fine]

Eh, there's a pretty simple explanation here. Tory sympathizers and lapsed members bought memberships, once a leadership race was underway.

Heck, I bought a membership yesterday

[T'Chenka]

RIP Canada. Maybe in the short term the conservatives going far right helps the Liberals but no party can stay in power forever and eventually the trucker lunatic party will be in charge again.

The citizens WILL NOT vote in a crazy trucker party, at least, not unless they have a leader that condones condemns the insanity. Canadians on average just do not approve of MAGA deplorable behaviour and won't vote in a Prime Minister that's okay with it.

As Laddicus Finch said, conseratives can't win the culture war up here.

I hope you're right, but a lot of people said the same about Trumpism in the United States, and at least here he needed to cobble together 47% of the vote or so to win. Conservatives only need like 35-40% to win, so they can still take power even if 60% of the country finds them repugnant.

I know A LOT of center-left people who aren't particularly political and who don't vote who would start voting if that somehow happened and we ended up with a disaster right-wing government and people were forced to wake up. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

[mileslunn]

RIP Canada. Maybe in the short term the conservatives going far right helps the Liberals but no party can stay in power forever and eventually the trucker lunatic party will be in charge again.

The citizens WILL NOT vote in a crazy trucker party, at least, not unless they have a leader that condones condemns the insanity. Canadians on average just do not approve of MAGA deplorable behaviour and won't vote in a Prime Minister that's okay with it.

As Laddicus Finch said, conseratives can't win the culture war up here.

I hope you're right, but a lot of people said the same about Trumpism in the United States, and at least here he needed to cobble together 47% of the vote or so to win. Conservatives only need like 35-40% to win, so they can still take power even if 60% of the country finds them repugnant.

I know A LOT of center-left people who aren't particularly political and who don't vote who would start voting if that somehow happened and we ended up with a disaster right-wing government and people were forced to wake up. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

I think you will see that in Alberta next year.  If only those who normally vote show up, I think UCP is favoured.  But I think UCP has been so bad a lot who normally don't vote will show up and that is why NDP will win.  Mind you I think stereotype Alberta is a right wing province is why many on left stayed home, but several polls showing NDP in lead has showed maybe that is not the case.

[MaxQue]

And now Bergen purged all Francophones from the leadership team.

[T'Chenka]

And now Bergen purged all Francophones from the leadership team.

Seems sketchy. How many were there?

[MaxQue]

And now Bergen purged all Francophones from the leadership team.

Seems sketchy. How many were there?

1, Gérard Deltell, now there is none, which isn't surprising given the reports in Quebec news she has the repute of being quite anti-French and anti-bilinguism.

[T'Chenka]

And now Bergen purged all Francophones from the leadership team.

Seems sketchy. How many were there?

1, Gérard Deltell, now there is none, which isn't surprising given the reports in Quebec news she has the repute of being quite anti-French and anti-bilinguism.

With such a small sample size, it's hard to say that the motivation is related to him being Quebecois and not perhaps something to do with him personally, something he believes in, something he's said, the way he behaves. If they plan to add or replace people moving forward, let's see if they add francophones.

[MaxQue]

And now Bergen purged all Francophones from the leadership team.

Seems sketchy. How many were there?

1, Gérard Deltell, now there is none, which isn't surprising given the reports in Quebec news she has the repute of being quite anti-French and anti-bilinguism.

With such a small sample size, it's hard to say that the motivation is related to him being Quebecois and not perhaps something to do with him personally, something he believes in, something he's said, the way he behaves. If they plan to add or replace people moving forward, let's see if they add francophones.

Pro-trucker MAGA hat lady has a track record, she doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[2952-0-0]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

[Santander]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

He's even better than Trump.

[King of Kensington]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

He lives far away enough not to be impacted, and particularly enjoys the fact that the truckers are mostly harassing the "lefties" who live in central Ottawa.

[Pericles]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

They should, the commissionners were appointed last November.

In other news, Kevin Falcon is now the BC Liberals leader.