Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[_.]

The NDP has the most based housing policy!

Justin Trudeau made big promises – but he’s neglected the housing crisis in Canada – and families are struggling to stay in the communities where they live and work.

Jagmeet and the NDP have a plan to tackle the housing crisis – including building 500,000 new units of affordable housing starting right away, and dealing with the speculation and money laundering that fuel skyrocketing housing prices.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP has the most based housing policy!

Justin Trudeau made big promises – but he’s neglected the housing crisis in Canada – and families are struggling to stay in the communities where they live and work.

Jagmeet and the NDP have a plan to tackle the housing crisis – including building 500,000 new units of affordable housing starting right away, and dealing with the speculation and money laundering that fuel skyrocketing housing prices.

 Have they said where they'll build this new housing when zoning is a municipal issue and it's dominated by nimby interests?

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP has the most based housing policy!

Justin Trudeau made big promises – but he’s neglected the housing crisis in Canada – and families are struggling to stay in the communities where they live and work.

Jagmeet and the NDP have a plan to tackle the housing crisis – including building 500,000 new units of affordable housing starting right away, and dealing with the speculation and money laundering that fuel skyrocketing housing prices.

 Have they said where they'll build this new housing when zoning is a municipal issue and it's dominated by nimby interests?

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but my narrower point is, since the NDP aren't in power federally, and don't have the ability to unilaterally construct housing, this is an incomplete promise. Obviously no provincial government or municipality will have negotiated this with the NDP yet since the NDP aren't in power.

My broader point, and this is why the idea that 'politicians should bring people together and not divide us' is to me naive and misunderstands the nature of politics.  Yes, politicians shouldn't go out of their way to be divisive like Donald Trump clearly enjoyed doing, but politics inherently involves choosing one thing over another and so, is inherently divisive.

If the NDP do get into power and construct these 500,000 units, and I hope that is done, NIMBY interests are going to be angry at the three levels of government.

[Poirot]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

While I don't know much about QC politics, I'd imagine going for Quebec Solidaire voters is a much better approach for today's NDP than trying to rebuild that Layton Orange Wave. NDPers tend to have a lot of nostalgia for the Orange Wave, and understandably so given the historic nature of that election. But they need to snap out of it. Even under Mulcair they just barely held on to Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, Trois-Rivieres, Jonquiere and so on

Quebec Solidaire, if not Quebec Solidaire voters, is the loony left.  Quebec Solidaire is a number of degrees to the left of the NDP.  I don't know if that has any impact on the NDP securing the votes of Quebec Solidaire voters, but I can absolutely see why the NDP does not want to get close to Quebec Solidaire.

And, that is even without taking into account that Quebec Solidaire is a separatist party.

QS and NDP in Montreal have the reputation of being close. The federal NDP did not support the new party NDP Québec last time. I guess it's not to keep good relations with QS and their volunteer.

Half of QS voters are not for sovereignty. It's more for social justice and sovereignty is not their main issue.

[Poirot]

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

I really can't see the NDP winning anything other than Rosemont at the moment. I suppose REB has an outside chance at Berthier - but she probably should've been campaigning the last 2 years to have a shot. And I guess they have a shot at Hochelaga, but the east end has been trending Liberal lately (provincially too). Hard to see the Liberals dropping there.

I agree probably only Rosemont. Beauport-Limoilou I think is because Limoilou is reprsented by QS provincially. The Liberals are running a union leader, the Conservative a former MP. Liberals want to win it.

A former NDP MP is running for the Liberals. François Lapointe in Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup. He was contacted by the LPC. He says NDP is not his political family anymore, how they treated Mulcair and how the current leader refuse to dissociate from the comments by an Ottawa University professor who called the Quebec government white supremacist.

Quand le PLC m’a contacté, il m’a fallu prendre un temps de réflexion. Je savais que le NPD n’était plus ma famille politique. Ils ont traité Tom Mulcair avec une sorte de mépris et j’ai été sérieusement désabusé de voir l’actuel chef des néo-démocrates refuser de se dissocier des propos du professeur d’université d’Ottawa qui a traité le gouvernement québécois de suprémaciste blanc, poursuit-il.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1817081/francois-lapointe-candidat-parti-liberal-canada-plc-montmagny-lislet-kamouraska-rdl

[perpetual_cynic]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

[Estrella]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

Yes, there is, but... I don't entirely trust polls showing Conservatives at <50% in Alberta; still, if they're lucky, I think Liberals could gain one or more of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and maybe Calgary Confederation or Calgary Forest Lawn. The only obvious NDP target is Edmonton Griesbach. But if you want riding by riding predictions in Canada, at the start of a campaign, in cities that may or may not swing away from a previously dominant party, you might as well toss a coin  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[mileslunn]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

Yes, there is, but... I don't entirely trust polls showing Conservatives at <50% in Alberta; still, if they're lucky, I think Liberals could gain one or more of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and maybe Calgary Confederation or Calgary Forest Lawn. The only obvious NDP target is Edmonton Griesbach. But if you want riding by riding predictions in Canada, at the start of a campaign, in cities that may or may not swing away from a previously dominant party, you might as well toss a coin  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Agreed, only way Tories fall below 50% is if Maverick Party or PPC get in double digits, then it is certainly possible.  Rural Alberta will go over 70% right wing likely over 80%, but possible Maverick or PPC get in double digits in several ridings there as many feel O'Toole not right wing enough.

In Calgary and Edmonton different story.  Split on right non-issue but Liberals and NDP do have a few seats they could flip.  I think for Liberals 2-4 seats most likely, NDP 1-2 seats.  Kenney's unpopularity hurting Tories a fair bit.  At same time no way right wing vote in Alberta falls below 50%.  Below 60%, I think its quite likely and certainly would be 69% like last time, but I still think in end combined right wing vote will be in 50s in Alberta.  However, this will probably be first election where Tories get higher percentage in Saskatchewan over Alberta.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

While I don't know much about QC politics, I'd imagine going for Quebec Solidaire voters is a much better approach for today's NDP than trying to rebuild that Layton Orange Wave. NDPers tend to have a lot of nostalgia for the Orange Wave, and understandably so given the historic nature of that election. But they need to snap out of it. Even under Mulcair they just barely held on to Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, Trois-Rivieres, Jonquiere and so on

Quebec Solidaire, if not Quebec Solidaire voters, is the loony left.  Quebec Solidaire is a number of degrees to the left of the NDP.  I don't know if that has any impact on the NDP securing the votes of Quebec Solidaire voters, but I can absolutely see why the NDP does not want to get close to Quebec Solidaire.

And, that is even without taking into account that Quebec Solidaire is a separatist party.

QS and NDP in Montreal have the reputation of being close. The federal NDP did not support the new party NDP Québec last time. I guess it's not to keep good relations with QS and their volunteer.

Half of QS voters are not for sovereignty. It's more for social justice and sovereignty is not their main issue.

I was not aware that QS and the Federal NDP were close in Montreal, but I presume that is at the grassroots level and not anything more official.  

I know QS reaffirmed their support for separatism not that long ago and the NDP in Quebec is generally regarded as a centralist federalist party, though the NDP has succeeded in having that perception modified in recent years, but I can see why the two parties might not want to be seen as too closely officially aligned.

In regards to QS voters, saying half of QS voters not being for 'sovereignty' is not really a help for the NDP given that QS only received 16% of the vote in 2018.  It would certainly not surprise me if many QS voters vote for the BQ given the overall perception of the BQ being a left wing party, though I'm sure there are many differences as well between QS and the BQ.

[perpetual_cynic]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

Yes, there is, but... I don't entirely trust polls showing Conservatives at <50% in Alberta; still, if they're lucky, I think Liberals could gain one or more of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and maybe Calgary Confederation or Calgary Forest Lawn. The only obvious NDP target is Edmonton Griesbach. But if you want riding by riding predictions in Canada, at the start of a campaign, in cities that may or may not swing away from a previously dominant party, you might as well toss a coin  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Agreed, only way Tories fall below 50% is if Maverick Party or PPC get in double digits, then it is certainly possible.  Rural Alberta will go over 70% right wing likely over 80%, but possible Maverick or PPC get in double digits in several ridings there as many feel O'Toole not right wing enough.

In Calgary and Edmonton different story.  Split on right non-issue but Liberals and NDP do have a few seats they could flip.  I think for Liberals 2-4 seats most likely, NDP 1-2 seats.  Kenney's unpopularity hurting Tories a fair bit.  At same time no way right wing vote in Alberta falls below 50%.  Below 60%, I think its quite likely and certainly would be 69% like last time, but I still think in end combined right wing vote will be in 50s in Alberta.  However, this will probably be first election where Tories get higher percentage in Saskatchewan over Alberta.

338canada puts the Tories at 52% right now in Alberta. I also wonder about the Liberals chances of taking back Regina-Wascana, it's rated as leaning Conservative right now. I also think Calgary Centre is definitely the most likely to be pulled from the Cons in Calgary. I also wonder how much of an effect Kenney will have with his 'coat tails' so to speak, with the NDP polling ahead of the UCP in ALB at the provincial level.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

[Oryxslayer]

Also remember that Provincial NDP =/= federal NDP or even the federal Liberals, every provincial party is kinda its own thing and tries to accommodate the provincial electorate. Notley pushed for pipelines like every Alberta premier. This is also something to remember for Quebec: QS =/= NDP, they differ on key policies, and do not cooperative. But they have enough indirect overlap on progressive policies that base QS voters in places like Sherbrooke and the Plateau are also NDP voters federally.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

Generally true, but you cannot ignore local candidate factors which no model will pick up.  2011 proves that since Regina-Wascana is maybe slightly more Liberal than other SK ridings, but not so much so you get 40%, but not above 9% anywhere else.  That shows it was a local candidate.  Model also would mess up in Vancouver-Granville where JWR won as independent but not running again.  Most ridings local candidates only make a minor difference, but you do have a handful where they make massive differences.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

Generally true, but you cannot ignore local candidate factors which no model will pick up.  2011 proves that since Regina-Wascana is maybe slightly more Liberal than other SK ridings, but not so much so you get 40%, but not above 9% anywhere else.  That shows it was a local candidate.  Model also would mess up in Vancouver-Granville where JWR won as independent but not running again.  Most ridings local candidates only make a minor difference, but you do have a handful where they make massive differences.

But they correctly predicted that JWB would win Vancouver-Granville in 2019 and was only off by 0.5% and now rate it as a lean Liberal riding, as it was before 2019.

[mileslunn]

They include riding polls too and I am pretty sure Mainstreet will have one for Regina-Wascana at some point.

[Poirot]

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

Not Dusseault. The NDP candidate is Marika Lalime, a history student. Someone with the same name ran in Châteauguay last election, I'm guessing the same person. In Sherbrooke the four bigger parties have women candidates.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1817121/femmes-candidates-sherbrooke-elections-2021

[Suburbia]

How about you Canada?

I know that the British Royal Family are just royals in Canada symbolically, as Canada is a Commonwealth nation, but who are the real Canadian royalty?

The Gretzkys? Sidney Crosby? Any well-known Canadian that is beloved in Canada?

[Lincoln Republican]

I see the CPC has pulled ahead of the Liberals in the latest polling and the momentum is now with the CPC.

The only thing Trudeau and the Liberals have to offer is  more lies, cover up and pomposity.

[Suburbia]

I think an endorsement of the Tories by Wayne Gretzky would seal the election for O'Toole......

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not particularly topical but I just found this extraordinary gem:

En pays pittoresque: un documentaire sur la Gaspésie

Well worth a skim, especially the opening. To me the narrator sounds so strange: a mix of an old-fashioned stilted newsreel voice and a good old provincial accent. Enjoy the bears at 11:15

[beesley]

Not particularly topical but I just found this extraordinary gem:

En pays pittoresque: un documentaire sur la Gaspésie

Well worth a skim, especially the opening. To me the narrator sounds so strange: a mix of an old-fashioned stilted newsreel voice and a good old provincial accent. Enjoy the bears at 11:15

I can see why it has earned its reputation as one of Canada's top retirement destinations even if life has changed much. There used to be a train from Montreal to Gaspé via the Bonaventure area, though that has ceased. Thanks for sharing.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/angeloisidorou/status/1444064196002410500?s=19

Seems to have been a well regarded figure, he worked in the Harper government and subsequently several local Conservative branches but was more well-known in the movement than that suggests. The more relevant point was how he got the gun within Canada, which conveys a tragic juxtaposition. My sincere condolences to those affected.