Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm still not over that unreal CPC ad and I won't be for some time. It just screams "unprofessional" and "petty". I stand by my theory that Tories can afford to come off a little petty and nasty, but they can't look like clowns, because the appeal of conservatism to moderates is the "adult in the room" thing.

Anyway, Innovative has a poll out. They typically favour LPC so I wouldn't put too much stock into it, but good grief, look at those CPC numbers in Ontario and BC.

[mileslunn]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

Agreed.  I think if party was leading in the polls, you would see them attract a lot more.  Ontario PCs had a much stronger roster as they were leading in polls two years up to election so many expected them to be next government.  Few expect Tories federally to win.

The reverse of this can be seen with Ontario Liberals. The federal Liberal caucus from Ontario is absolutely stacked, and it seems like they'll add Naqvi and Couteau, the latter of whom is a sitting MPP. The provincial Liberals, meanwhile, are nominating a whole bunch of nobodies for the next election.

Agreed.  While OLP has a chance, I think its much lower than federal Liberals and Ontario PCs still despite Ford's mistakes have a decent chance at winning although I think Ontario is less certain than federal. 

And with Tories being in government in most provinces, that too could limit their ability to get the best not just for candidates, but also communications team too.  In BC though I would think with BC Liberals in opposition and BC Conservatives being a joke some might be interested even if unlikely to win this time rather to learn the ropes to be ready in 2025 (if they win then).  And in Alberta too for open seats as lets be clear even if UCP does recover, they will win a lot less seats than they did in 2019 and not a whole lot of ones who have been members for a long time who are likely to retire.  Most who retire more likely will do so to avoid defeat.

[mileslunn]

I'm still not over that unreal CPC ad and I won't be for some time. It just screams "unprofessional" and "petty". I stand by my theory that Tories can afford to come off a little petty and nasty, but they can't look like clowns, because the appeal of conservatism to moderates is the "adult in the room" thing.

Anyway, Innovative has a poll out. They typically favour LPC so I wouldn't put too much stock into it, but good grief, look at those CPC numbers in Ontario and BC.

Even most Tories I follow on twitter are slamming the ad and also slamming O'Toole's stance on vaccine passports.  Its one thing for Liberal partisans to criticize Tories, that is expected.  But when your own party supporters aren't happy, then you know you've got trouble.

Even one MP and Brad Wall slammed this ad so when you have them commenting on this, you know its a major mistake.  While early on, reminds me of Kim Campbell Chretien face ad and Liberal's soldiers in our streets from 2006 ad as both got condemned by own party and both were damaging.

[Continential]

Luckily for the Tories, they didn't run it on TV.

[beesley]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

For Tories I'd say (not counting former MPs):
- Doug Currie, former Liberal MLA, interestingly, running for the CPC in Charlottetown
- Eddie Orrell, local PC MLA running in Sydney-Victoria, narrowly lost in 2019
- Jake Stewart, PC MLA and cabinet minister running in Miramichi-Grand Lake
- Mel Norton, former Saint John mayor running in Saint John
- Yves Levesque, former mayor of Trois-Rivieres running in...well, Trois-Rivieres. He ran in 2019 and came close
- Melissa Lantsman, Tory strategist/comms person and frequent TV talking head running in Thornhill.
- Leslyn Lewis, CPC leadership contender running in Haldimand-Norfolk.
- Helena Konanz, former tennis player who interestingly represented the US running in South Okanagan. Don't think I'd call her a star candidate though, maybe if she had represented Canada more recently, but representing the US in the 80s won't ring any bells
- Dave Hayer, former BC Liberal MLA running in Fleetwood-Port Kells

Yeah, I really stretched the definition of star candidate for the Tories by including MLAs, I only did that for the Liberals for the pretty notable ones like Naqvi and Pupatello. If we're using the same standard for Liberals, I'd have to add:

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

Hatman already covered the NDP using a similar standard. The Liberals have way more (and bigger) star candidates than the Tories and the NDP, but this is to be expected when the Liberals are in power and don't seem to be on the way out.

There are also a few municipal politicians running for the NDP, but they don't have Wikipedia articles, so I didn't include them.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

There are some long shots in ridings with no incumbents running:

Malpeque - Is this a Liberal seat or a Wayne Easter seat? Probably both. A strong Green candidacy could split the vote, but with the Greens in shambles, that probably ain't happening.
Miramichi
Trois-Rivieres - I doubt Levesque can gain on his 25% won last time. With the NDP no longer with the incumbency edge, their vote will go to the Bloc.
Kanata-Carleton - traditional Tory seat, but suburbanization is helping the Liberals.
Nunavut - Maybe if Aglukkaq runs
Yukon - The YP just won the PV in last year's territorial election, so there's still a conservative base there.

None of these are particularly likely pickups, though. I wonder if there are any ridings that have a lot of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers or people opposed to border restrictions that might see a Tory bump? Niagara Falls comes to mind, but it's already held by the Tories.

[MaxQue]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

There are some long shots in ridings with no incumbents running:

Malpeque - Is this a Liberal seat or a Wayne Easter seat? Probably both. A strong Green candidacy could split the vote, but with the Greens in shambles, that probably ain't happening.
Miramichi
Trois-Rivieres - I doubt Levesque can gain on his 25% won last time. With the NDP no longer with the incumbency edge, their vote will go to the Bloc.
Kanata-Carleton - traditional Tory seat, but suburbanization is helping the Liberals.
Nunavut - Maybe if Aglukkaq runs
Yukon - The YP just won the PV in last year's territorial election, so there's still a conservative base there.

None of these are particularly likely pickups, though. I wonder if there are any ridings that have a lot of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers or people opposed to border restrictions that might see a Tory bump? Niagara Falls comes to mind, but it's already held by the Tories.

Yukon has the Yukon public health director (the Tam/Fauci) of Youkon running for the Liberals and the Conservatives removed their candidate this week as he is an opponent of vaccine passports.

[MaxQue]

- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet

Very surprised. She was active in the Quebec NDP in the early 00's and kept saying Svend Robinson was her model.

[Continential]

- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet

Very surprised. She was active in the Quebec NDP in the early 00's and kept saying Svend Robinson was her model.

She was the Liberal candidate for the seat in 2019.

[Poirot]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

I'm not a fan of international travel. In Montreal a third of cases are linked to international travel, even if people are double vaccinated. People traveling and welcoming tourists seems like an increase in cases like how it arrived in the first wave.

[Poirot]

New Abacus: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

I wanted to pinpoint the Quebec numbers in particular. If the main anti-LPC parties in Quebec (BQ and Tories) split like that (poll suggests 22-19), the Liberals will win a good number of seats there without really having to increase their numbers all that much. A simple Tooclosetocall input of those numbers gives the LPC 45 seats in Quebec, 10 more than they won in 2019 and 5 more than 2015.

There is a bizarre anti-Trudeau strategic voting reasoning I've read a few times. Voting Bloc keeps Trudeau in power because Bloc can't form government. To replace Trudeau people need to vote for the Conservatives (only party that could win more seats)

I don't know if this theory is pushed by Quebec City because the more Bloc voters vote strategically this way, the more it helps Liberals at the moment (except 2-3 seats) if there is not one another strong party. 

[Poirot]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

[DabbingSanta]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

I'm not a fan of international travel. In Montreal a third of cases are linked to international travel, even if people are double vaccinated. People traveling and welcoming tourists seems like an increase in cases like how it arrived in the first wave.

You can't just keep a multi-billion dollar industry closed forever. 

[Poirot]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

For the Conservatives in Quebec, someone said the former Mayor of Trois-Rivières.
There is Dominique Vien in Bellechasse-Les Etchemins - Lévis. She is a former provincial Cabinet Minister for the Quebec Liberals. It will make at least one woman in their Quebec caucus.
Vincent Duhamel in Brome—Missisquoi who worked in investment and finance with an international career.
Frank Cavallaro in Mont-Royal, a tv weatherman.

The Bloc Québécois has Ensaf Haidar in Sherbrooke. She is the wife of Raif Badawi who has been detained in Saudia Arabia for many years.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

While I don't know much about QC politics, I'd imagine going for Quebec Solidaire voters is a much better approach for today's NDP than trying to rebuild that Layton Orange Wave. NDPers tend to have a lot of nostalgia for the Orange Wave, and understandably so given the historic nature of that election. But they need to snap out of it. Even under Mulcair they just barely held on to Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, Trois-Rivieres, Jonquiere and so on

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Seriously though, that Willy Wonka ad is so bad it's good. It's a parody of what the Conservative Party has been for six years now, a microcosm of their mentality. The fact that they still haven't taken it off Twitter makes it even more bizarre.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

While I don't know much about QC politics, I'd imagine going for Quebec Solidaire voters is a much better approach for today's NDP than trying to rebuild that Layton Orange Wave. NDPers tend to have a lot of nostalgia for the Orange Wave, and understandably so given the historic nature of that election. But they need to snap out of it. Even under Mulcair they just barely held on to Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot, Trois-Rivieres, Jonquiere and so on

Quebec Solidaire, if not Quebec Solidaire voters, is the loony left.  Quebec Solidaire is a number of degrees to the left of the NDP.  I don't know if that has any impact on the NDP securing the votes of Quebec Solidaire voters, but I can absolutely see why the NDP does not want to get close to Quebec Solidaire.

And, that is even without taking into account that Quebec Solidaire is a separatist party.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1426337403418066945

Nanos has the Tories back at 28% up from 23%. It appears that string of poor Tory polling in Nanos polls was an aberration and they are back around where other pollsters have them

Good thing we didn't overreact to those results and speculate about the death of the Tories. That would've been silly

[Mike88]

It's going to be on September 20th.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

I really can't see the NDP winning anything other than Rosemont at the moment. I suppose REB has an outside chance at Berthier - but she probably should've been campaigning the last 2 years to have a shot. And I guess they have a shot at Hochelaga, but the east end has been trending Liberal lately (provincially too). Hard to see the Liberals dropping there.

[NewYorkExpress]

Protesters protesting vaccine passports in Montreal were wearing yellow stars used by the Nazis to identify Jews.

Thousands gathered Saturday in the streets of Montreal to protest against the province of Quebec’s Covid-19 vaccine passport, which will go into effect early next month.

Holding signs that said “Freedom!” and “We are not laboratory rats,” the demonstrators, many of whom came with their families, paraded peacefully under a blazing sun in downtown Montreal.

Quebecers wanting to eat at a restaurant, go to a bar, exercise at the gym or attend a festival will need to present proof of vaccination against the coronavirus beginning September 1, under a measure introduced by the province earlier this week.

.....

Other signs in the crowd read “Dictatorship,” “The vaccine scam,” and “Health apartheid,” and were seen dotting the crowd alongside a number of Quebec flags.

Several women held posters reading “My body, my choice,” using the popular feminist slogan that is also associated with the abortion rights movement.

Some protests also wore a yellow star on their chest with “unvaccinated” written across it, in the fashion of the yellow Star of David that Jewish people were forced to wear during the Holocaust.

https://twitter.com/sock_william/status/1426620701453209602

[Bootes Void]

I heard some projections suggesting that the NDP will get up to 36 seats, which is where they were before 2019, where do you think those gains will likely come from? Probably not Quebec

[Oryxslayer]

I heard some projections suggesting that the NDP will get up to 36 seats, which is where they were before 2019, where do you think those gains will likely come from? Probably not Quebec

The LPC of course, which is why Trudeau's gamble has more facets than just his lead over the Conservatives. If the Liberal lead on election day is similar to present, there will be no need for ABC voting among NDP voters, so you probably see some large swings to the NDP in specific Liberal seats. This is of course a generalization and not a seat-by-seat breakdown, but the Liberals must fight on all sides for their majority, not just against the CPC.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I like the Liberals and NDP, I am in between them ideologically. I want a strong NDP, so they can keep the Liberals honest on things such as Pharmacare.

The NDP is like the Bernie wing, and the Liberals are like the Biden wing of the Democratic party.