UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Sestak]

Curious what everyone thinks what’s going to come of Brexit mess in coming weeks... May’s Deal Passes, NO Deal, General election or Second Referendum?

Always assume the worst, so no deal.

It seems to me, despite it being a horrific deal, that MP’s are giving in to May and laying down. They all said she would box them into a my deal or the highway situation and now here they are letting her do just that!

Errrrrr... what precisely leads you to this conclusion?

It went from a majority of 200+, to 140, to 58.. and now slowly more names are trickling in

Yeah, so maybe in another three weeks it can pass...oh wait.

[Zaybay]

With the SNP going against the Labour Customs Union, it seems safe to say that Britain will be going down the Brexit option.

[Zaybay]

Also, if No-Deal Brexit occurs, PM Corbyn becomes a 95% possibility, just due to the unpopularity of such a decision and the horserace between the two parties. Brexit would basically give the Labour Party control of government after the next election(whenever that is).

[Dereich]

With the SNP going against the Labour Customs Union, it seems safe to say that Britain will be going down the Brexit option.

There is no "Labour Customs Union" up for vote. I believe the official Labour position is still for their unicorn "CU with alignment with the single market but somehow no freedom of movement." Common Market 2.0 isn't the Labour plan. And anyway, the Ken Clarke CU plan has a decent chance of passing even without the SNP, who were never going to support it.

[Sestak]

Four votes today:

C (common market 2.0) is the same proposal that came close to passing last time.

D (customs union + single market) is supported by both Labour and SNP at the moment (SNP does not back  C)

E (confirmatory public vote) is the same force-referendum proposal as last time.

G (parliamentary supremacy) as an SNP proposal, which, if enacted, would force Parliament to choose directly between revoking Article 50 and No Deal if no agreement is reached by the 12th. This is the only one Labour is not supporting.

[Former President tack50]

Four votes today:

C (common market 2.0) is the same proposal that came close to passing last time.

D (customs union + single market) is supported by both Labour and SNP at the moment (SNP does not back  C)

E (confirmatory public vote) is the same force-referendum proposal as last time.

G (parliamentary supremacy) as an SNP proposal, which, if enacted, would force Parliament to choose directly between revoking Article 50 and No Deal if no agreement is reached by the 12th. This is the only one Labour is not supporting.

Why is the SNP not supporting C? It's probably what they want?

[Dereich]

Four votes today:

C (common market 2.0) is the same proposal that came close to passing last time.

D (customs union + single market) is supported by both Labour and SNP at the moment (SNP does not back  C)

E (confirmatory public vote) is the same force-referendum proposal as last time.

G (parliamentary supremacy) as an SNP proposal, which, if enacted, would force Parliament to choose directly between revoking Article 50 and No Deal if no agreement is reached by the 12th. This is the only one Labour is not supporting.

Why is the SNP not supporting C? It's probably what they want?

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111646559693877250

C is only the customs union. D is common market 2.0

[Helsinkian]

All four options in the indicative votes are rejected; customs union by only three votes, but we must remember that the cabinet were abstaining.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112823431953833991

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112823431953833991

Customs union was pretty close. There sure are a lot of abstains, though.

[Angel of Death]

Nick Boles just announced he's leaving the Conservative Party.

[Silent Hunter]

Nick Boles (Grantham) has resigned from the Conservative Party literally in the Commons Chamber.

FWIW, Grantham is the birthplace of Margaret Thatcher.

[YL]

Nick Boles (Grantham) has resigned from the Conservative Party literally in the Commons Chamber.

FWIW, Grantham is the birthplace of Margaret Thatcher.

Amusingly he is the second consecutive MP for Grantham & Stamford to leave the Tories; his predecessor Quentin Davies defected to Labour in 2007.

[jaichind]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

[Silent Hunter]

Some Labour MPs defied the party whip and the DUP voted against everything.

[YL]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

Lots of Remainers didn't support them.  Both would have passed, for example, if the 11 TIGgers and four or five Lib Dems who voted against it had abstained.

I fear this was a mistake.

[Sestak]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

Lots of Remainers didn't support them.  Both would have passed, for example, if the 11 TIGgers and four or five Lib Dems who voted against it had abstained.

I fear this was a mistake.

Basically remainders are trying to get rid of all options other than No Deal and Remain and then force a choice between them.

[Former President tack50]

Some Labour MPs defied the party whip and the DUP voted against everything.

At this point I wonder exactly what kind of Brexit the DUP wants. At least the other parties vote for something

[Dereich]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

Lots of Remainers didn't support them.  Both would have passed, for example, if the 11 TIGgers and four or five Lib Dems who voted against it had abstained.

I fear this was a mistake.

Basically remainders are trying to get rid of all options other than No Deal and Remain and then force a choice between them.

Of course that very choice was ALSO rejected in today's votes.

The only kind of Brexit Parliament ever agreed to was the "withdraw agreement after you go to the EU and make them give us everything we want" Brady Amendment.

Now May has a 3 hour cabinet session tomorrow where she'll have part of the cabinet demanding no deal or else they'll tear the government apart, part of the cabinet demanding a soft Brexit or else they'll tear the government apart, and part of the cabinet saying that if she goes ahead and demands an election THEY'LL tear the government apart. Theresa May hasn't exactly done a good job, but with this Parliament I doubt anyone could have passed a deal  without losing a VoNC within the hour.

[Pericles]

Owen Smith voted against a customs union. Yet more proof he is a HP.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing is, even if we No Deal, that doesn't end the matter, as someone will have to resolve the way out of this mess with the EU...

My country is a joke tonight.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can't they chose their favourite votes via preferential ballot or something?

[CumbrianLefty]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

Chuka and his CHUKS de facto voted for no deal. Ditto several LibDems and Caroline Lucas.

We now have inflexible remainer extremism to go along with the ERG/UKIP variety.

Oh joy.

[Pericles]

Can't they chose their favourite votes via preferential ballot or something?

They already have the option to vote for as many options as they want, and are just trying to game the system by voting down options that they actually could live with so they can get their preferred option. However, there may some validity to the argument that it is naive to expect parliament to solve Brexit in a week when the government couldn't do it in nearly three years. If Theresa May hadn't made leaving the customs union a red line then perhaps a less divisive and easier Brexit would have been possible, however after the last 3 years trying to get a compromise from scratch is much harder in 2019 than it would have been in the aftermath of the referendum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing is, even if we No Deal, that doesn't end the matter, as someone will have to resolve the way out of this mess with the EU...

Yes, 'No Deal' doesn't actually mean 'No Deal'. It means the opposite. It means this drags on forever. I do not understand why this point is not often made.