My 2020 Senate Map (March 2019)
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Author Topic: My 2020 Senate Map (March 2019)  (Read 893 times)
538Electoral
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« on: March 13, 2019, 07:59:35 AM »

Not sure where something like this belongs, But here's my current senate prediction for 2020.



Republicans 53
Democrats 45
Independents 2
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2019, 08:41:59 AM »



Lean D AZ McSally will still lose
Tossup CO, TX, AL
Tilt R NC & MT Bullock can still run
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Woody
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2019, 11:02:21 AM »



Lean D AZ McSally will still lose
Tossup CO, TX, AL
Tilt R NC & MT Bullock can still run
Alabama is a toss up??
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2019, 12:38:23 PM »



Lean D AZ McSally will still lose
Tossup CO, TX, AL
Tilt R NC & MT Bullock can still run
Alabama is a toss up??

Cory Gardner loses due to the state trend in Colorado.

AL is a tossup if Roy Moore runs against Doug Jones. ME is a D pickup if Paul "Vichy" LePage primaries Susan Collins. (not an anti-French smear, but an anti-fascist smear of a Quebecois-American who said something nasty about Jews).

IA is not safe for Ernst.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2019, 02:47:13 PM »

Not sure where something like this belongs, But here's my current senate prediction for 2020.



Republicans 53
Democrats 45
Independents 2

There’s a board for congressional elections. I’d say switch AL and ME, as well as MI and NH and it’s a reasonable map, though it would probably occur in a good year for Republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2019, 04:11:58 PM »



Lean D AZ McSally will still lose
Tossup CO, TX, AL
Tilt R NC & MT Bullock can still run
Alabama is a toss up??

Cory Gardner loses due to the state trend in Colorado.

AL is a tossup if Roy Moore runs against Doug Jones. ME is a D pickup if Paul "Vichy" LePage primaries Susan Collins. (not an anti-French smear, but an anti-fascist smear of a Quebecois-American who said something nasty about Jews).

IA is not safe for Ernst.
My map is a objective map, the other user uses normal means of states voting the same way and not splitting votes for Congress and Prez, clearly CO and AZ are lean Dem and IA, MT(Bullock) and AL are tossups, even if Harris-HICKENLOOPER carries 279 map
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2019, 05:24:40 AM »

I would rate AZ as Tossup and VA as safe D
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2019, 09:24:55 AM »



This map assumes a competitive Presidential race

>30%-tilt
>50%-lean
>70%-likely
>90%-safe
green: tossups
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UncleSam
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2019, 11:57:35 AM »

This far out the only seats I see flipping are AL and CO, with AZ as a toss up.

Seats that could become competitive will be MI and NH for Dems and NC, ME, IA, GA, and maybe TX in a bad night for Rs. I don’t think there will be much ticket splitting outside of possibly Maine, and even in Maine I think if Trump loses by more than 6 or 7 Collins will lose. None of these seats are favored to flip but some of them probably will.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2019, 02:04:56 PM »

MI should be Safe D. Unbeatable Titans Gary Peters, John Cornyn and Steve "Not Maryland Matt" Daines could literally shoot someone and still win in a landslide.

CO should be Lean R because you can’t beat somebody with nobody.
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Politician
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2019, 02:46:03 PM »

Texas should be Safe D. John Cornyn is an extremely weak candidate TM with no name recognition and obviously Ted Cruz was popular (which explains why every conservative R underperformed every moderate R in TX in 2018) and the Republicans will lose the Texas suburbs by 50 because muh trends.

Montana should be Safe D. Michigan should be Safe R. The state is gone for Democrats TM and Gary Peters is a Weak Candidate TM.

YES, THIS IS WHAT ATLAS SOUNDS LIKE
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