TX-Sen 2020 Hypothetical: Henry Cuellar (D) vs John Cornyn (R)

[voice_of_resistance]

How do you think this matchup would go in 2020? Just curious. Discuss.

[S019]

Tilt D

52-48 Cuellar

Cuellar draws moderate Republicans in the suburbs and outperforms the D nominee by several points

[Zaybay]

Likely R, perhaps Safe R. Cuellar demoralizes Ds and isn’t able to get the turnout needed from Democrats. There would most likely be large amounts of blank and protest votes as well. Cuellar would not be able to make the margin up with the 13, perhaps 14, GOP voters he got for being Conservative.

[Not Me, Us]

Beto did as well as he did by maximizing Dem turnout, not by trying to convert Republicans. If Beto can do as well as he did by running as a liberal, there's no reason why we would need to run a Blue Dog.

[Xing]

Cornyn would win easily. Democrats who think that we need a conservadem to win elections clearly haven't been paying attention.

[LoneStarDem]

Cornyn crushes him by double digits of around 20 percentage points.

Cuellar is like 63 years old I believe.

[UWS]

Lean R

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Cornyn crushes him by double digits of around 20 percentage points.

Cuellar is like 63 years old I believe.

No Republican is winning any statewide race in Texas by that margin unless the Democrat is a pedophile or murderer.


But yes, Cuellar would do worse than Beto did. he probably loses by around 8 points since he can't excite the Democratic base at all.

[Sestak]

Cuellar would tank.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cuellar would tank.

[The Mikado]

Cuellar has very little name recognition outside of the Valley and no real appeal to anyone, Democrats or Republicans. Cuellar isn't an idiot, either. He's more akin to a feudal lord in Laredo than a politician. He would have difficulty outside of his fiefdom.

[HarrisonL]

I would say Lean, probably Likely Republican.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R. A Blue Dog is not the way a Democrat can win Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R. A Blue Dog is not the way a Democrat can win Texas.

Andrew White would have helped Beto out, more so, than Lupe Lopez

[Politician]

Cornyn probably wins Harris and Bexar against Cuellar, let alone the election.

[lfromnj]

Cornyn probably wins Harris and Bexar against Cuellar, let alone the election.

LOL. Plz explain to me these Obama Obama Clinton Beto Valdez, D nominee 2020 Cornyn voters.

[Karpatsky]

Cuellar would suppress Democratic base turnout much more than he would gain the support of moderate Republicans.

[ON Progressive]

Cornyn probably wins Harris and Bexar against Cuellar, let alone the election.

LOL. Plz explain to me these Obama Obama Clinton Beto Valdez, D nominee 2020 Cornyn voters.

To be fair, I'd imagine it would be more like an Obama/Obama/Clinton/Beto/Valdez/PresiDem 2020 voter that leaves the ballot blank. I'm sure there would be plenty of those (but not enough for Cornyn to win Harris or Bexar by any means).

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

LMAO No, Cornyn will outperform Trump in TX and Trump will win TX by 7-9 points in 2020.

[Boobs]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

LMAO No, Cornyn will outperform Trump in TX and Trump will win TX by 7-9 points in 2020.

It’s quite difficult to ascertain which of your two statements is more ridiculous.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

LMAO No, Cornyn will outperform Trump in TX and Trump will win TX by 7-9 points in 2020.

It’s quite difficult to ascertain which of your two statements is more ridiculous.

Democrats are not gonna win by 8-9 points nationally in 2020. If you dont think that had anything to do with TX being within 3-5 points in 2018 then you are the one who is being wrong.

I mean we can look at 2010 and say that Michigan is gone for certain for Obama in 2012 as the GOP obliterated the Dems there in 2010 and guess what in 2012 Obama obliterated Romney in Michigan.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

LMAO No, Cornyn will outperform Trump in TX and Trump will win TX by 7-9 points in 2020.

It’s quite difficult to ascertain which of your two statements is more ridiculous.

Democrats are not gonna win by 8-9 points nationally in 2020. If you dont think that had anything to do with TX being within 3-5 points in 2018 then you are the one who is being wrong.

I mean we can look at 2010 and say that Michigan is gone for certain for Obama in 2012 as the GOP obliterated the Dems there in 2010 and guess what in 2012 Obama obliterated Romney in Michigan.

Uniform swing isn’t a thing, though. Some states trend a lot faster than others, which also makes PVI a deficient indicator more often than not.

The MI comparison makes no sense because the demographics of TX are a lot more troubling for the GOP than any changes happening in MI, not to mention that TX has fewer persuadable swing voters than MI.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, I’m sure Cornyn would win by more than Abbott and in places like Bexar and Harris because Trump-hating affluent suburbanites and hardcore leftists would skip the race or vote for noted progressive/moderate Cornyn because Cuellar cast a few vaguely moderate votes during his time in the House. 🙄

Get real. Cornyn would be lucky to win by more than 5 points with Trump on the ballot in a presidential year, even if Cuellar runs an awful campaign. Cornyn probably wins, but it definitely wouldn’t be a slam dunk.

LMAO No, Cornyn will outperform Trump in TX and Trump will win TX by 7-9 points in 2020.

It’s quite difficult to ascertain which of your two statements is more ridiculous.

Democrats are not gonna win by 8-9 points nationally in 2020. If you dont think that had anything to do with TX being within 3-5 points in 2018 then you are the one who is being wrong.

I mean we can look at 2010 and say that Michigan is gone for certain for Obama in 2012 as the GOP obliterated the Dems there in 2010 and guess what in 2012 Obama obliterated Romney in Michigan.

Uniform swing isn’t a thing, though. Some states trend a lot faster than others, which also makes PVI a deficient indicator more often than not.

The MI comparison makes no sense because the demographics of TX are a lot more troubling for the GOP than any changes happening in MI, not to mention that TX has fewer persuadable swing voters than MI.

Im not saying there is going to be a uniform swing , Im just saying  national environment matters though. The national environment was terrible for the GOP in 2018 and they underperformed across the board (with the one exception of FL lol). TX wasnt the exception really in 2018.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cuellar would tank.