My Current Take On The 2006 Senate Races...

[Politico]

I know it's early, but we're political junkies, right? I see no harm in looking ahead to 2006, so here's my current take on all of the seats up for re-election:

Democrats

Up For Grabs:

Open seat in Minnesota

In Trouble:

None at the moment

Potentially Vulnerable:

Whoever fills Corzine's seat in New Jersey
Sarbanes' open seat in Maryland
Nelson in Nebraska
Nelson in Florida

Probably Safe:

Jeffords' open seat in Vermont *
Bingaman in New Mexico
Conrad in North Dakota
Cantwell in Washington
Stabenow in Michigan
Byrd in West Virginia
Clinton in New York **
Carper in Delaware
Kohl in Wisconsin

Untouchable:

Kennedy in Massachusetts
Lieberman in Connecticut
Feinstein in California
Akaka in Hawaii

 * - Seat will probably go to Rep. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who will caucus with the Democrats
** - Potentially vulnerable/possibly in trouble if Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) changes his mind and decides to challenge her. Potentially vulnerable/possibly in trouble if Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY) changes his mind and decides to challenge her. Neither scenario is likely.

Republicans

Up For Grabs:

Open seat in Tennessee

In Trouble:

Santorum in Pennsylvania
Talent in Missouri
DeWine in Ohio

Potentially Vulnerable:

Chafee in Rhode Island *
Burns in Montana
Snowe in Maine

Probably Safe:

Hutchison in Texas
Ensign in Nevada
Lugar in Indiana
Allen in Virginia **
Kyl in Arizona

Untouchable:

Thomas in Wyoming
Lott in Mississippi
Hatch in Utah

* - In trouble if Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) changes his mind and decides to challenge him
** - In trouble if Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) changes his mind and decides to challenge him. Not very likely to happen.

---------------

I look foward to hearing your thoughts...

[Blank Slate]

I know it's early, but we're political junkies, right? I see no harm in looking ahead to 2006, so here's my current take on all of the seats up for re-election:

Democrats

Up For Grabs:

Open seat in Minnesota

In Trouble:

None at the moment

Potentially Vulnerable:

Whoever fills Corzine's seat in New Jersey
Sarbanes' open seat in Maryland
Nelson in Nebraska
Nelson in Florida

Probably Safe:

Jeffords' open seat in Vermont *
Bingaman in New Mexico
Conrad in North Dakota
Cantwell in Washington
Stabenow in Michigan
Byrd in West Virginia
Clinton in New York **
Carper in Delaware
Kohl in Wisconsin

Untouchable:

Kennedy in Massachusetts
Lieberman in Connecticut
Feinstein in California
Akaka in Hawaii

 * - Seat will probably go to Rep. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who will caucus with the Democrats
** - Potentially vulnerable/possibly in trouble if Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) changes his mind and decides to challenge her. Potentially vulnerable/possibly in trouble if Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY) changes his mind and decides to challenge her. Neither scenario is likely.

Republicans

Up For Grabs:

Open seat in Tennessee

In Trouble:

Santorum in Pennsylvania
Talent in Missouri
DeWine in Ohio

Potentially Vulnerable:

Chafee in Rhode Island *
Burns in Montana
Snowe in Maine

Probably Safe:

Hutchison in Texas
Ensign in Nevada
Lugar in Indiana
Allen in Virginia **
Kyl in Arizona

Untouchable:

Thomas in Wyoming
Lott in Mississippi
Hatch in Utah

* - In trouble if Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) changes his mind and decides to challenge him
** - In trouble if Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) changes his mind and decides to challenge him. Not very likely to happen.

---------------

I look foward to hearing your thoughts...

I would agree with this, except that I think as the 2006 elections continue that the open seat in Maryland and the New Jersey seat and the two Nelsons  (Florida & Nebraska) will be better off than how they might appear, now. 

Also I would say we have not seen what bad news will befall Ensign of Nevada in the next year. 

Otherwise I would agree with this, but I really do feel the Democrats will keep all of their current seats (including New Jersey).     

Republicans will probably keep the Tennessee seat, despite my desire to see Ford win this seat, and DeWine, Santorum and Talent will all be defeated, which will leave Republicans still in control for the second half of  Bush's second term:

With this being what the parties will be in the Senate:

52R 47D 1i   

With an outside chance if I'm right about Ensign of:

51R 48D 1i

And of course this means another election of slow incremental gains of women in the Senate, with the pickup of Claire McCaskill of Missouri.

[Keystone Phil]

TN is up for grabs but PA is just in trouble?

[Ben.]

TN is up for grabs but PA is just in trouble?

In the end i think TN will be closer than expected, however I don't see Ford winning on anything other than a great night for the DNC, indeed both Hackett and Moore (should Lott retire) have far better chances than Ford IMO.

As for PA, it'll be closer in the end, but Casey will probably win it.

[Jake]

Uh, Tennessee is our Maryland, i.e. it's not going to happen.

[Blank Slate]

TN is up for grabs but PA is just in trouble?

In the end i think TN will be closer than expected, however I don't see Ford winning on anything other than a great night for the DNC, indeed both Hackett and Moore (should Lott retire) have far better chances than Ford IMO.

As for PA, it'll be closer in the end, but Casey will probably win it.

I will agree if Lott retires than there is an outside chance for the Democrats to pick up the Mississippi seat, but only if Hackett or Moore are the nominee (especially former Attorney General Moore).   

Also if the Democrats will pick senate president Jon Tester over state Auditor John Morrison and the other two Democratic candidates they do have a legitimate shot at defeating Burns in Montana.

If both of those are to happen than the Democrats will win control of the Senate, albeit by a small margin.

Here are the possibilites of Senate lineup going into Bush's second half of his second term:

Best for Democrats:

50 D 49 R 1 i

Reasonable best for Democrats if they win either the Montana or Mississippi seat:

50 R 49 D 1 i

Most likely best for Democrats:

51 R 48 D 1 i

Most probably outcome (with the Democrats keeping and defending all of their seats & taking Missouri, Ohio & Pennsylvania from the Republicans):

52 R  47 D 1 i

My most probable worse case scenario for the Democrats (I'm thinking with it being a midterm, the Democrats will at least win two seats from the Republicans {most likely Missouri & Pennsylvania, where the Democrats won't be as fractured in primaries as they might be in Ohio -- also the Democrats didn't help themselves any in Ohio with the ballott props on November 8, 2005}):

53 R  46 D 1 i     

Again, I will wait until at least the late spring of '06 to give any final prediction on this.

[Virginian87]

How vulnerable is Jim Talent?  I haven't heard too much about him.  What about Conrad Burns?  I took a look at Jon Tester's website for his campaign and Tester seems set to give Burns a run for his money next year.

[Sam Spade]

You put too many Senate candidates as being potentially safe.  The only way many of these seats become even potential switches is if they become open. 

Incumbents just don't get defeated very often in the Senate and even when they do or there's a 1980/1986/1994/2000, it's usually not more than 25% that go.

All of your potentially safe seats are really untouchable unless the incumbent retires.

Also, Snowe is untouchable unless she fulfills on her often-talked about plan to run for Governor, in which case she'll kick Baldacci's ass from here to kingdom come.  She's one of the most popular Senators, with a usual approval rate of around 70% (SurveyUSA had the Maine twins both at 79% approve last time).

Other than that, move the open seat in Tennessee from Up for Grabs to Potentially Vulnerable and your assessment will be correct for 2006 at this point in time.

[TheresNoMoney]

How vulnerable is Jim Talent?

Very. McCaskill has a 2% lead on him in latest Rasmussen poll. This is the Democrats' 2nd or 3rd best pickup opportunity.

What about Conrad Burns?

He can be beaten as well. This is the Democrats' 5th or 6th best pickup opportunity. Approval rating in latest Montana St. poll is only 48%. An everyman farmer like Jon Tester (current State Senate president) can beat him if he can raise enough money to be known throughout the state. The state auditor Jon Morrison also has a shot, but I think Tester has a better chance of connecting with the rural voters.

[Politico]

Just to clarify things:

Up For Grabs = Open seats that look like they could go either way at this point, which is usually the case with open seats a year out. Incumbents cannot fall into this category.
 
In Trouble = Worst possible category for an incumbent. Win or lose, 2006 looks like it's going to be a tough year for these candidates.

Potentially Vulnerable = Candidates are safe...for now. Obviously things could change, especially if these seats were to become open races.

Probably Safe = The closer we get to Election Day, the more this category morphs into "Almost Surely Safe." A month from Election Day, these candidates will either be in trouble (very unlikely), potentially vulnerable (unlikely), or untouchable (most likely)

Untouchable = No way will these candidates lose.

[Max Power]

Uh, Tennessee is our Maryland, i.e. it's not going to happen.

Jake, I'm going to keep this quote in case Ford and Steele win.

[RJ]

What about Kent Conrad? Is that Governor going to challenge him? If so, I say he hovers between potentially vunerable and in trouble.

[Gabu]

What about Kent Conrad? Is that Governor going to challenge him? If so, I say he hovers between potentially vunerable and in trouble.

Hoeven has already declared that he will not be challenging Conrad.

[memphis]

TN is up for grabs but PA is just in trouble?

While I'm doubtful of Ford's chances, I expect him to get a higher percentage of votes than Santorum. Ford is not consistantly trailing by double digits like Santorum is. Still, a lot could change in the next year. Iraq could be peaceful, the Messiah could come, Tom Delay could be found to be a decent human being...

[Blank Slate]

Just to clarify things:

Up For Grabs = Open seats that look like they could go either way at this point, which is usually the case with open seats a year out. Incumbents cannot fall into this category.
 
In Trouble = Worst possible category for an incumbent. Win or lose, 2006 looks like it's going to be a tough year for these candidates.

Potentially Vulnerable = Candidates are safe...for now. Obviously things could change, especially if these seats were to become open races.

Probably Safe = The closer we get to Election Day, the more this category morphs into "Almost Surely Safe." A month from Election Day, these candidates will either be in trouble (very unlikely), potentially vulnerable (unlikely), or untouchable (most likely)

Untouchable = No way will these candidates lose.

Okay, thanks for the clarification.  Then let me do this list, via the way you have this listed for the U.S. Senate.

DEMOCRATS

Up For Grabs  (open seats)

Maryland (Paul Sarbanes -- retiring)
Minnesota (Mark Dayton, DFL -- retiring)

In Trouble

NONE

Potentially Vulnerable

Tom Carper, Delaware*
Bill Nelson, Florida**
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan***
Ben Nelson, Nebraska****
New Jersey (Jon Corzine elected Governor this past week)
Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico*****
Kent Conrad, North Dakota******
Maria Cantwell, Washington*******

Probably Safe

Dianne Feinstein, California
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Dan Akaka, Hawaii********
Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts
Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York
Robert C. Byrd, West Virginia
Herb Kohl, Wisconsin

*Carper starts out potentially vulnerable because of how close his election to this seat was in 2000, but unless a stronger Republican candidate emerges than is being offered right now, Carper will probably go on to win re-election rather easily.
**Bill Nelson (see Carper above), Congresswoman Katharine Harris will not defeat this Nelson.  The other Republican woman, perennial candidate, Belinda Noah will go nowhere.  The strongest potential candidate for this Nelson would be Congressman Mark Foley from southeast Florida, who would appeal to many Democratic voters in this state.
***Stabenow (see Carper above)
****Ben Nelson (see Carper above)
*****Bingaman (see Carper above), although he has been in longer than Carper, but has had close elections in the past. 
******Conrad (see Bingaman above)
*******Cantwell (see Carper above), the main potential problem for Cantwell isn't in the general election, though.  Her main problem could crop up in the primary, but with Washington state having a "jungle" primary system it would be highly unlikely that Cantwell would not be the Democratic nominee.
********Akaka, the main worry for the Democrats in this seat would be if Akaka decides to retire.

REPUBLICANS

Up For Grabs (open seats)

Tennessee (Bill Frist not seeking re-election)

In Trouble

Jim Talent, Missouri
Mike DeWine, Ohio*
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania

Potentially Vulnerable

Trent Lott, Mississippi**
Conrad Burns, Montana***
John Ensign, Nevada****
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island*****
George Allen, Virginia******

Probably Safe

Jon Kyl, Arizona
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Kay Baily Hutchison, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

*DeWine like Cantwell has the potential of being defeated in the primary.  A matter of fact, DeWine is a probably a lot more vulnerable to this than Cantwell is.  It is possible before DeWine gets to November (on May 2, 2006), and before either Hackett or Brown meet him in November, that one of his two Republican rivals might defeat him:  Teacher & professional engineer William Pierce or retired USAF officer & systems analyst John Mitchel, and of course this is before the possible candidacy of former Congressman Bob McEwen.  This is part of the reason why I'm holding off until at least, late spring 2006, making any predictions when it comes to U.S. Senate next November, because DeWine could very well get defeated in the primary, and if any Senator does (in either party)  -- it will be DeWine.
**This is if Lott retires.
***Burns:  It will depend on who the Democrats nominate.  Again the best Democrat would have to be state Senate President John Tester.  State Auditor John Morrison may make it close, but I don't think he will win.
****Ensign:  This state that is still considered a swing state, and wasn't a state that Bush won in a huge manner in 2004 could have a potentially exciting Senate race.  Of course Democratic candidate (which might not be the eventual nominee), Jack Carter (the son of President Jimmy Carter) has a lot of ground to make up to be competitive. 
*****Chafee:  Again could be more vulnerable, but as of now the Democrats currently running have yet to be more competitive.   Chafee is also a liberal Republican (one of the few left) and may be able to stave off a strong Democratic challenger.
******Allen:   Allen has become potentially vulnerable because of the results in Virginia this last Tuesday.   Although whether he has a strong viable Democratic challenger is another question, altogether.  The one potential strong challenger could very well be, actor Ben Affleck.  But whether Affleck actually runs is also another question.  The only thing I might add is this, thank goodness Affleck is no longer dating J Lo!

INDEPENDENT

Up For Grabs (open seat)

Vermont (Jeffords retiring)*

*Sanders though will probably keep this seat, since Democrats don't want Sanders to not be the next Senator of this, now, reliable red state.       

Although, yes, I'm not making any firm predictions for the outcome of the U.S. Senate elections for 2006, until spring 2006, and therefore the way the Senate will be alligned for the second half of Bush's second term -- I will go ahead with current trends suggest what that Senate for the second half of Bush's term will look like.  And this is with the following caveats, that certainly could change before then:  1.  Lott does not retire.  2.  Akaka does not retire.  3.  Congressman Foley, FL does not run for the Senate.   4.  Tester is the Democratic nominee in Montana.    5.  DeWine wins renomination in Ohio, but in very weakened state for November.   6.  Cantwell wins renomination and survives the "jungle" primary in her state, and by a healthy margin.   7.  Despite all the noise coming out, as of now, actor Affleck decides against running for the U.S. Senate in Virginia against Allen.   8.  Jack Carter in Nevada, and any Democrat in Rhode Island do not pick up any speed to take on the Republican incumbents, Ensign and Chafee respectively.   9.  Democrats Carper,  the two Nelsons, Stabenow, Bingaman & Conrad do not get any top tier Republican challengers running against them.     10.   Ohio Democrats nominate, Congressman Sherrod Brown over Paul Hackett to challenge DeWine.   11.   Pennsylvania Democrats nominate  state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. to challenge Santorum.   12.  McCaskill, D. is challenging Talent, R. (and the poll numbers still show her quite comfortably ahead).   13.   In the open seats:    In Maryland, the nominees are:   Lt. Governor Michael Steele, R.  and Congressman Ben Cardin, D.  and attorney & Nader campaign press secretary Kevin Zeese, G. (and despite Steele being African-American, Cardin in polls is quite comfortably ahead, as Governor Ehrlich is having re-election troubles himself;  Zeese is just a blip on the radar and is not being taken seriously).    In Minnesota, the nominees are:  Congressman Mark Kennedy, R.  and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, DFL  and nurse Michael Cavlan, G.  and public access TV organization executive director Robert Fitzgerald, i.   (Calvan and Fitzgerald are considered after thoughts by most voters, by this point with Klobuchar having a slight lead in the polls).    In Tennessee, the nominees are:  Congressman Van Hilleary, R. (he defeated the more moderate Congressman Ed Bryant in the primary; despite the thought that nominees for Republicans would have thought to be more moderate to win, Hilleary though uses the thought that moderate Republicans in Congress defeated the Budget bill to win the primary) and Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., D.  and attorney and frequent candidate John Jay Hooker, i.  (Ford actually finds out he has a slight lead in the polls, surprising many including Hilleary and the Republican party in Tennessee)    And finally in Vermont, the nominees are:  Congressman Bernie Sanders, i and state Senator Mark Shepard, R.  and marketing consultant Craig Hill, G. and paralegal and marijuana legalization activist Cris Erikson, M  (Sanders is clearly in the lead in polls).   Finally, in New Jersey, Governor Corzine keeps his promise he just made and selects state Senator Nia H. Gill, D. to his vacant Senate seat (in a surprise) and being African-American is apparently not harming her as some had thought, earlier as the Democrats who might have decided to run against her (Congressmans Andrews, Menendez, Pascrell and even Pallone decide against it) and state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., R.  is her only opponent (and the polls are surprisingly showing Gill in the lead).   

So with this ending up being the case on November 6, 2006, with with what I wrote in the last paragraph, with the caveats is that on the eve of the November 2006 elections, after November 7, 2006, the Senate will be for the second half of Bush's second term, this linup:

50 R 49 D 1i +5D

(Newly elected U.S. Senators:   Benjamin Cardin, D. of Maryland, Amy Klobuchar, DFL of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill, D. of Missouri, John Tester, D. of Montana,  Sherrod Brown, D. of Ohio, Robert "Bob" Casey, Jr., D. of Pennsylvania, Harold E. Ford, Jr., D. of Tennessee and Bernie Sanders, i of Vermont; and sort of new is:  Nia H. Gill, D. of New Jersey)           

[Virginian87]

So with this ending up being the case on November 6, 2006, with with what I wrote in the last paragraph, with the caveats is that on the eve of the November 2006 elections, after November 7, 2006, the Senate will be for the second half of Bush's second term, this linup:

50 R 49 D 1i +5D

(Newly elected U.S. Senators:   Benjamin Cardin, D. of Maryland, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill, D. of Missouri, John Tester, D. of Montana,  Sherrod Brown, D. of Ohio, Robert "Bob" Casey, Jr., D. of Pennsylvania, Harold E. Ford, Jr., D. of Tennessee and Bernie Sanders, i of Vermont; and sort of new is:  Nia H. Gill, D. of New Jersey)          

I think you may be a little generous.  I certainly think Tester can win and Missouri is possible, but I just don't see Ford winning Tennessee's Senate seat. 

[Blank Slate]

So with this ending up being the case on November 6, 2006, with with what I wrote in the last paragraph, with the caveats is that on the eve of the November 2006 elections, after November 7, 2006, the Senate will be for the second half of Bush's second term, this linup:

50 R 49 D 1i +5D

(Newly elected U.S. Senators:   Benjamin Cardin, D. of Maryland, Amy Klobuchar, DFL of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill, D. of Missouri, John Tester, D. of Montana,  Sherrod Brown, D. of Ohio, Robert "Bob" Casey, Jr., D. of Pennsylvania, Harold E. Ford, Jr., D. of Tennessee and Bernie Sanders, i of Vermont; and sort of new is:  Nia H. Gill, D. of New Jersey)           

I think you may be a little generous.  I certainly think Tester can win and Missouri is possible, but I just don't see Ford winning Tennessee's Senate seat. 

Well one reason why I'm thinking this is going to be the outcome, and after the clarification on the levels of where the Senate races are, is this (and this is also from what I'm hearing both on radio, TV and the internet and also in person from the outcome of the 2005 off-off-year elections) is that I think that what the voters will attempt to do is try to modify or take the country back into a more moderate direction in D.C.   That's why in general I have expressed this thought, I think 2006 will be a good year for Democrats (now right now, I'm thinking that the Democrats will regain the House, but by only a few seats), but not an overwhelming one, so that the Senate will remain in Republican hands, but not by much.

I think this would also be an environment for a Bush second half of a second term that would help moderate Democratic Presidential nominee, Mark Warner of Virginia, and may not help more liberal possible Democratic Presidential nominee, Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2008.  (I myself, admire, Hillary, but I don't think she will be a good choice for the Democrats to have as their nominee in 2008).   But an outcome, in 2006, like this with the Senate being very close, but Republican controlled, and a House being very close but in Democratic control -- would probably make Hillary think perhaps 2008 her running for President is not a good idea; and again, helps the possible Democratic candidate that I would want to be the Democrats Presidential nominee in 2008, Warner a great deal.

BTW, I have heard from voters from Tennessee (and many of them from southeastern Tennessee), and many of them have expressed to me they really would like not to have another Republican U.S. Senator such as Bill Frist, and have expressed interest in Harold E. Ford, Jr.'s campaign.   Part of that is out of an issue that is becoming a red hot issue developing for many of the Congressional campaigns and possibly for the Governor's campaign here in Georgia, that many people throughout the rest of the U.S. are unware of, as of now (and this also might be affecting elections in western North Carolina, and already did in the 2005 elections with the outcome of African-American city councilwoman Terry M. Bellamy {who is known to be a Democrat} winning the mayor's race in Asheville, NC by a convincing margin against a much better funded "Republican" mayor's candidate, Dr. Joe Dunn by 57% to 43% to replace a "Republican mayor that had been in there since 1991).   And that issue is this:   There are several Republicans, Frist amongst them and Van Hilleary is another who pushed for the new I-3 (Interstate 3) through many areas in rural eastern Georgia, mountain areas of North Carolina and Tennessee -- of course now some of those Congressional members and our Georgia Governor have had to backpedal on that issue, when many rural and small city residents in all three states have expressed outrage over the thought of this I-3 being built, hurting much of the environment, destroying the natural beauty of the area, worries over over-building up of businesses along the proposed I-3, the possibilites of I-3 making the area overrun with huge trucks and finally the thought that the building of I-3 is an attempt to make it easier for nuclear waste to be transported through this beautiful area, oh and finally the fact that the building of I-3, especially in far northeast Georgia, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina would mean the explosions through mountains in all three areas.  So, this is why I say that Ford winning the Tennessee U.S. Senate seat with the Tennessee GOP nominating Hilleary is a definite strong possibility.         

[Jake]

Uh, Tennessee is our Maryland, i.e. it's not going to happen.

Jake, I'm going to keep this quote in case Ford and Steele win.

Feel free to hold on to it. Ben Cardin cannot be defeated by Mike Steele. Period.

BTW, just so I'm not taking pot shots here. This is my prediction thing a year out.

Safe Democrat
Everyone else ranging from Carper to Feinstein.

Strong Democrat
7. Washington
6. Michigan
5. Nebraska
4. Maryland
3. Florida

Florida will move into Leaning Democrat if the GOP can find a better candidate than Harris. Maryland should be a race, though Cardin shouldn't lose by less than 10% unless he pisses off blacks. Washington and Michigan should be easy wins for Cantwell and Stabenow. Nebraska could gte closer if Osborne or Heineman jump into the race. For now, it stays Strong Democrat.

Leaning Democrat
2. New Jersey *
1. Minnesota  *

Minnesota will be key for both parties. A pick-up here almost assures GOP control of the Senate, a defeat removes one of two real pick-up oppurtunities. In New Jersey, this race could go from Strong Democrat (Codey) to Lean GOP/Pick-up (Menendez) depending on who Corzine appoints and who runs next spring. I'll split the difference and wait for more.

Leaning Democrat/Pick-up
1. Pennsylvania

Can't be good to be down big a year out. Good thing it's a year out for Santorum. This race will be the biggest Senate battle in recent history and Casey has the early lead.

Leaning GOP
2. Montana
3. Missouri
4. Ohio
5. Rhode Island

Incumbent advantage here and the fact that only Burns and Talent have credible challengers.

Strong GOP
6. Tennessee *
7. Arizona
8. Virginia

Ford's only chance in Tennessee is the most brutal primary ever combined with a massive Democratic year, even then, it'll be tough for a black from Memphis to win outside of the city. Allen and Kyl are here only because they aren't super safe.

Safe GOP
Everyone else ranging from Hatch to Snowe

[Alcon]

Excellent analysis, Jake.  I agree fully.

[Jake]

I had to bring some semblance of sanity to the Democratic wet dream that was going on above.

[Blank Slate]

I had to bring some semblance of sanity to the Democratic wet dream that was going on above.

I think you're having a Republican wet dream, if you think everyone right now or even a year from now, are just totally loving the current Congress and President.

Also, your analysis has no in-depth analysis to it. 

Get a clue. 

[TheresNoMoney]

DeWine and Chafee have credible challengers as well. Hell, polls have shown DeWine already trailing at least one of his opponents in every poll.

[Jake]

I had to bring some semblance of sanity to the Democratic wet dream that was going on above.

I think you're having a Republican wet dream, if you think everyone right now or even a year from now, are just totally loving the current Congress and President.

Also, your analysis has no in-depth analysis to it. 

Get a clue. 

Please show me where that was stated. The facts for you and your pal Scoonie.

1) It is a year out. Last year, Bush and the Republicans were riding high. This time next year, Bush could be impeached and the Republicans could be facing a 1994 on steroids, or Bush could have plus fifty approval ratings and sitting pretty. It'll probably be in the middle of that meaning a slight Democratic edge.

2) Senate incumbents do not lose in large numbers unless they have outstanding opponents. Only Santorum and Talent fit in that category. Burns has two decent opponents, Dewine has an above average opponent, and Chafee has two average opponents.

3) Open Seats a competitive, but only with a candidate electable statewide, Kean is that candidate, Ford, Kennedy, and Steele are not.

Seeing that, I really doubt that more than 2-4 seats change hands. In a good year for the Democrats, y'all may be able to take Pennsylvania and two/three of the four lean GOPs and probably could defend your leaners. In a slightly Democratic year, y'all could take Pennsylvania and one/two of the lean GOPs, while maybe losing one of your own. In a neutral year, y'all will take Pennsylvania and one other, maybe losing one of your own seats. Unless a whole lot of really bad things happen for the Republicans, it won't get worse than a 4 seat loss. That'll hurt, but it will bring it to 51-49 at best. A victory, but to think that y'all can take six seats while defending every one of your own defies logic. Y'all don't have the funds to take down all five GOP incumbents in one election season, especially when you consider the picks you've made on the Gubernatorial side of the board.

[Alcon]

I had to bring some semblance of sanity to the Democratic wet dream that was going on above.

I think you're having a Republican wet dream, if you think everyone right now or even a year from now, are just totally loving the current Congress and President.

Also, your analysis has no in-depth analysis to it. 

Get a clue. 

Other than that all polls so far released support his analysis.

I actually might give the GOP a slight advantage in Minnesota at this point, so his prediction is hardly unreasonable.

[TheresNoMoney]

Polls have shown Democrats leading in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio and Minnesota.