CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip? (user search)
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  CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip? (search mode)
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Question: ?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip?  (Read 1284 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: November 26, 2019, 09:42:15 AM »

If one of the two Vietnamese Garden Grove City Councilwomen were to run, perhaps, it would be in play. If they can tie the incumbent to Trump--that would be quite damaging. I think Gavin Newsom plays pretty well in Orange County and with Asian-American voters, generally, so he is an asset for Dems in AD72 and AD68.

?? He lost AD72 by 4 points, and he won Orange County by 3,000 votes.

Newsom did as well as can be expected among Asian voters in OC. He  underperfromed with Whites, and frankly thats an expected reality of any partisan governor running for reelection. Democratic governor candidates are  going to do better in white-gop-but-less-red areas in red states, and vice versa for the GOP and white-dem-but-less-blue areas in Blue states. It's what happens with state executive elections and is generally how people like Hogan and Beshear can win. I frankly was surprised when OC stayed  blue nearly all the way down the  ticket, one  would expect it to Follow Riverside and flip.



This wonderful map from Miles basically confirms all that I just said. Newsom dropped  off the hardest from the Dem congressional sweep in Whiter areas like Huntington Beach and South OC, the precincts he gained were all Asian ones in CA-39. Now, Newsom wasn't giong to replicate Rouda's sweep, and he was going to outperform Kim's attempt to hold the most blue of the Clinton-Trump seats, but it's notable how well the White v Asian factor holds up outside of those specific regions.
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