CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip?
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  CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: CA-AD-72 2020: Does it finally flip?  (Read 1260 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: March 08, 2019, 05:57:39 PM »
« edited: March 08, 2019, 06:08:53 PM by ERM64man »

Tyler Diep won 52-48 against Josh Lowenthal. The district is a Clinton-Republican district that voted for Cox and Feinstein.
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Young Conservative
youngconservative
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2019, 06:23:19 PM »

If it didn't flip in 2018, it probably won't in 2020, which probably won't be as Democratic of a year.
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Scrumtrulescent
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2019, 06:32:30 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2019, 06:47:34 PM by Scrumtrulescent »

AD-68 looks just as enticing of a target as AD-72 in 2020.

It's also a Clinton/Cox district, albeit whiter & less Asian than AD-72. Choi's margin also fell more than in AD-72, going from +20.6 in 2016 to +6.2

As for the poll question, I'm leaning no.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2019, 01:32:26 AM »

Probably. The best case scenario/greatest chance of victory would come from Janet Nguyen flipping parties/running as an independent against Diep. She would be favored, and is a genuinely talented public servant.
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socaldem
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2019, 06:26:09 AM »

If one of the two Vietnamese Garden Grove City Councilwomen were to run, perhaps, it would be in play. If they can tie the incumbent to Trump--that would be quite damaging. I think Gavin Newsom plays pretty well in Orange County and with Asian-American voters, generally, so he is an asset for Dems in AD72 and AD68.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2019, 01:01:27 AM »

If one of the two Vietnamese Garden Grove City Councilwomen were to run, perhaps, it would be in play. If they can tie the incumbent to Trump--that would be quite damaging. I think Gavin Newsom plays pretty well in Orange County and with Asian-American voters, generally, so he is an asset for Dems in AD72 and AD68.

?? He lost AD72 by 4 points, and he won Orange County by 3,000 votes.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2019, 09:42:15 AM »

If one of the two Vietnamese Garden Grove City Councilwomen were to run, perhaps, it would be in play. If they can tie the incumbent to Trump--that would be quite damaging. I think Gavin Newsom plays pretty well in Orange County and with Asian-American voters, generally, so he is an asset for Dems in AD72 and AD68.

?? He lost AD72 by 4 points, and he won Orange County by 3,000 votes.

Newsom did as well as can be expected among Asian voters in OC. He  underperfromed with Whites, and frankly thats an expected reality of any partisan governor running for reelection. Democratic governor candidates are  going to do better in white-gop-but-less-red areas in red states, and vice versa for the GOP and white-dem-but-less-blue areas in Blue states. It's what happens with state executive elections and is generally how people like Hogan and Beshear can win. I frankly was surprised when OC stayed  blue nearly all the way down the  ticket, one  would expect it to Follow Riverside and flip.



This wonderful map from Miles basically confirms all that I just said. Newsom dropped  off the hardest from the Dem congressional sweep in Whiter areas like Huntington Beach and South OC, the precincts he gained were all Asian ones in CA-39. Now, Newsom wasn't giong to replicate Rouda's sweep, and he was going to outperform Kim's attempt to hold the most blue of the Clinton-Trump seats, but it's notable how well the White v Asian factor holds up outside of those specific regions.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2019, 01:09:46 PM »

Nah, it's ancestrally republican enough at that level with a good candidate like Diep to hold for a while. Likely R.
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 11:52:50 PM »

Former State Senator Janet Nguyen (R), who lost reelection last year in what has become a Democratic-leaning district, is running against Diep, as local party members and conservatives have become increasingly frustrated with his liberal votes and close ties to labor. There are rumors Diep may switch to the Democrats if he wins reelection.
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