CA-House 2020/2022: Candidates, redistricting, retirements

[Greedo punched first]

Who might run, maybe Travis Allen or Steve Jones?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Baugh was the best option, but he left.

[S019]

Baugh
Rohrabacher comeback

[Greedo punched first]

Baugh
Rohrabacher comeback

Rohrabacher and Baugh have too many scandals. A Mimi Walters comeback would even make more sense because she lives in the district, which is more GOP than CA-45. I would assume CA-48 is on the NRCC’s target list. What about moderates like Janet Nguyen or Steve Jones?

[President Johnson]

I think Rouda is highly favored to win again. He's one my favorites.

[Greedo punched first]

I think Rouda is highly favored to win again. He's one my favorites.

He’s favored. Which of these Republicans would have the best chance to win the primary: Mimi Walters, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates, or Steve Jones?

[President Johnson]

I think Rouda is highly favored to win again. He's one my favorites.

He’s favored. Which of these Republicans would have the best chance to win the primary: Mimi Walters, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates, or Steve Jones?

I'd say Mimi Walters or Travis Allen.

[Oryxslayer]

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.

[Greedo punched first]

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.

CA-48 is more GOP than CA-39. What about Steve Jones, a moderate who is currently in power?

[Oryxslayer]

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.

CA-48 is more GOP than CA-39. What about Steve Jones, a moderate who is currently in power?

CA-48 is more republican than CA-39, but it is A: less Vietnamese (so less voters to swing hard right for ngyuen than Kim in 39) and B: Rouda is infinitly better then Cisneros.

I have no idea who Steve Jones is - do you mean the mayor of Garden Grove? If so, you got the problem that the contituency he represents is almost entirely outside the district. Not good for a moderate who needs to get past people further right in Top 2. So once again, there are problems with his candidacy.  

[Greedo punched first]

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.

CA-48 is more GOP than CA-39. What about Steve Jones, a moderate who is currently in power?

CA-48 is more republican than CA-39, but it is A: less Vietnamese (so less voters to swing hard right for ngyuen than Kim in 39) and B: Rouda is infinitly better then Cisneros.

I have no idea who Steve Jones is - do you mean the mayor of Garden Grove? If so, you got the problem that the contituency he represents is almost entirely outside the district. Not good for a moderate who needs to get past people further right in Top 2. So once again, there are problems with his candidacy.  

Jones is the mayor of Garden Grove, which is partially in CA-48 (Garden Grove’s Little Saigon is in CA-48).

[S019]

I think Rouda is highly favored to win again. He's one my favorites.

He’s favored. Which of these Republicans would have the best chance to win the primary: Mimi Walters, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates, or Steve Jones?

Why would Walters run on CA-48, that would create nonstop attack ads, since she chose to represent CA-45

[Greedo punched first]

I think Rouda is highly favored to win again. He's one my favorites.

He’s favored. Which of these Republicans would have the best chance to win the primary: Mimi Walters, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates, or Steve Jones?

Why would Walters run on CA-48, that would create nonstop attack ads, since she chose to represent CA-45

Walters lives in CA-48 (Laguna Beach). She was a carpetbagger in CA-45. CA-48 is more GOP than the 45th. She can’t be attacked for carpetbagging in the 48th.

[Scrumtrulescent]

I was gonna say Rouda beating Scott Baugh 51-49, but even Baugh seems aware of the likelihood of that occurring.

No way Mimi Walters attempts a run here.

I think Janet Nguyen will attempt a run, but the chances of CA-48 flipping get dimmer every day.

[Greedo punched first]

It makes more sense for Walters to run in Laguna Beach (her hometown) than in Anaheim (partially in CA-45).

[S019]

I watched Rouda yesterday on Meet the Press, he declined to endorse Kamala, and said that he would have found Trump' conduct with Cohen and his children troubling, even if a Democrat was the President who did it. He seems to be moving to the center and preparing for a tough reelection battle. This makes sense as currently he is on the left wing of the establishment wing of the party (-0.4 on VoteView).

Janet Nguyen would make it competitive
Regardless of where Walters lives, the ads would be something like "Walters chose Irvine, over us, let's choose Rouda over her"
Rohrabacher might pull this off, but performed a lot more worse than statewide Republicans
Baugh would also make this competitive, and maybe the GOP can coax him into running

[Gass3268]

Didn’t Rohrabacher move to Maine?

[S019]

Didn’t Rohrabacher move to Maine?

Great, then he can take down Jared Golden

[Greedo punched first]

What will Rouda’s district look like after 2022? 2020 will be the last election under the current map.

[lfromnj]

Didn’t Rohrabacher move to Maine?

Great, then he can take down Jared Golden

wow a district he could actually win in.

[S019]

Didn’t Rohrabacher move to Maine?

Great, then he can take down Jared Golden

wow a district he could actually win in.

Plus Rohrabacher would be back in Congress. If Eric Brakey or some other crazy radical jumps in, the GOP should coalesce behind Rohrabacher

Meanwhile Nguyen tries to take down Rouda (I think he loses, because the district is very Republican down ballot)
Also Walters should run in CA-45, Porter is a bit too liberal for her district, plus she would not face constant attack ads

[Greedo punched first]

If Irvine and Laguna Beach are moved into the same district in 2022, who would win a race between Porter and Rouda?

[Scrumtrulescent]

If Irvine and Laguna Beach are moved into the same district in 2022, who would win a race between Porter and Rouda?

I thought this thread was about GOP challengers

[Greedo punched first]

2020 will be the last election under this map, what will the new map look like?

[Scrumtrulescent]

Can this be converted into a general CA-48 megathread?

Or even a general CA House 2020 thread?