2006/07 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the GOP to take the state legislature in Louisiana they need to make some serious breakthroughs in rural districts; don't see any signs that they'll be able to do that. Not with the sort of Democrat you get in those areas...
Thing to remember about the Democratic vote in the New Orleans area is that it is (or was?) very concentrated... while the breakup of the machine could hurt certain statewide candidates very hard, it won't effect the results in (say) north-central Louisiana. The trouble for the Democrats will come when the districts are next redrawn; New Orleans will almost certainly lose a significant number of seats.
Not to say that the Louisiana state legislature results won't be interesting; personally I'm looking out for the results in New Orleans itself (for a range of reasons; including the number of people that actually vote*) and also (this may actually be more interesting) Baton Rouge; the population of the area has doubled making things wonderfully unpredictable.

*note to third party activists: move en masse to some of the really, really depopulated parts of New Orleans and actually win an election of more importance than county dogcatcher for once.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True, but the wild card is party switchers.  I've heard that Senator Vitter has been on the lookout for potential party switchers.  If the Republicans pick up substantial ground in the legislature, a few North LA legislators may switch parties and bring them up to a majority.

There is always that possibility, yes. But to get to that stage, the Republicans actually have to make serious gains first. Can't completely rule it out though.