2006/07 Gubernatorial Predictions
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  2006/07 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Author Topic: 2006/07 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 1727 times)
Frodo
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« on: November 11, 2005, 05:50:11 PM »
« edited: December 04, 2005, 06:17:04 PM by Frodo »

Key:

Dark Blue: Republican gains
Light Blue: Republican retains

Dark Red: Democratic gains
Pink: Democratic retains



Democrats should fare much better in the governors' mansions in the next two years than they will in trying to regain Congress, given that voters will likely have a much better opinion of Democratic governors than they have of the congressional Democratic Party.  Due in no small part to President George W. Bush's recently attained unpopularity, they could make a net gain of six new Democratic governors, especially in such states like New York, California, and Ohio. 

As far as Louisiana is concerned, Democrats will face a political disaster on top of the natural one as Republicans capitalize on Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco's flawed response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster, on top of the demise of the massive Democratic voting bloc in New Orleans as a direct result of the disaster.  They could possibly be in control of Louisiana's legislature by the time the dust clears, and the 2008 presidential campaign begins in earnest, as well as making gains in Iowa and Wisconsin. 
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2005, 06:00:25 PM »

Is there an election in MO 2007?  I thought it was 2008.  Blunt should go down regardless.

Maryland is going to be tough too.  Ive got this weird feeling in my stomach regarding Maryland '06 (senate and gov).  Its not a we're gonna' lose feeling.  Its more of a... This is going to be closer than I would like type of feeling.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2005, 06:04:59 PM »

Democrats make gains in:

-New York
-Massachusetts
-California
-Ohio
-Maryland
-Arkansas
-Minnesota
-Colorado
-Kentucky

Republicans make gains in:
-Iowa
-Louisiana

This results in 29 Democratic governors and 21 Republican governors.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2005, 06:18:15 PM »

For the GOP to take the state legislature in Louisiana they need to make some serious breakthroughs in rural districts; don't see any signs that they'll be able to do that. Not with the sort of Democrat you get in those areas...
Thing to remember about the Democratic vote in the New Orleans area is that it is (or was?) very concentrated... while the breakup of the machine could hurt certain statewide candidates very hard, it won't effect the results in (say) north-central Louisiana. The trouble for the Democrats will come when the districts are next redrawn; New Orleans will almost certainly lose a significant number of seats.
Not to say that the Louisiana state legislature results won't be interesting; personally I'm looking out for the results in New Orleans itself (for a range of reasons; including the number of people that actually vote*) and also (this may actually be more interesting) Baton Rouge; the population of the area has doubled making things wonderfully unpredictable.

*note to third party activists: move en masse to some of the really, really depopulated parts of New Orleans and actually win an election of more importance than county dogcatcher for once.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2005, 06:44:12 PM »

Is there an election in MO 2007?  I thought it was 2008.  Blunt should go down regardless.

Missouri is not until 2008.
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Jake
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2005, 06:58:48 PM »

I really doubt we get that many pickups for either side.

At this point:

Democratic Gains
-New York
-Massachusetts

Republican Gains
-Iowa

Democratic Leaners
-California
-Maryland
-Ohio

Republican Leaners
-Louisiana

Democratic Possibles
-Arkansas
-Kentucky
-Minnesota
-Georgia
-Colorado

Republican Possibles
-Tennessee
-Pennsylvania
-Wisconsin

GOP: 1-1-3
DEM: 2-3-5

I doubt more than half of the above will switch hands.
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Blank Slate
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2005, 07:53:18 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2005, 07:55:12 PM by Blank Slate »

I'm going to be a bit more optimistic than Scoonie (I still think 2006 is going to be a bad year all around for the Republicans, and although I will be honest three of these states (Florida, Georgia, Nevada) do seem just out of reach for the Democrats right now  -- I think they will go Democrat by November 7, 2006):

Democratic gains:

Arkansas
California
Colorado
Florida
Georgia (Cathy Cox becomes the first woman Governor of Georgia)
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Nevada
Ohio

Republican gains:

Iowa
Louisiana (not until 2007)

This leaves 32 Democratic governors and 18 Republican governors.
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2005, 08:36:22 PM »

My predictions:

I think the Democrats are certain to gain New York, and very likely to gain Massachusetts as well. 

They stand a good chance in Maryland, though that will be slightly tougher. Ehlrich may well surprise us and win a second term.

I actually think they have a good shot at picking up Colorado, due to the major (and nasty) divisions in the Republican primary.  I think the Colorado GOP has shot itself in the foot so many times I'm practically ready to throw this state to them.

California will certainly be competitive, another prime opportunity.  We are all well familiar with Ah-nold's troubles.

I'd rate Arkansas as a tossup, it's a yellow dog Democratic state, and it may return to its roots next year.

Should Ken Blackwell win the nomination, he has a fighting chance to keep Ohio in the Republican column.  He's already polling one or two points ahead of his prospective Democratic challengers.  He's also won three past statewide races by solid margins, so he should be taken very, very seriously.  The Democrats, if they win, will not win this in a walk.

I'd also watch Arizona.  Dan Goldwater has been polling very well against Napolitano, and this could be a sleeper.  It should be noted that she only won last time with 46%, one point ahead of her challenger.

Minnesota will be competitive, but by no means a sure thing for Democrats. Still, Pawlenty is no longer an overwhelming favorite for re-election.  A bit too close for me to say, but Minnesota has been quite favorable to Republicans in state office, more than some might think.

Jim Gibbons will keep Nevada in the Republican column, provided he gets through the primary with little trouble.

I think Georgia and Florida will also stay in the Republican column.  The Republican party on the local level is particularly strong in Florida, and they've done very well in local races as of late.

I would have written off Riley in Alabama, but he's polling well in the GOP primary, so there may be some resurgence in support.  He's still in trouble, regardless, and if he loses, it won't be a surprise.

Alaska may stay in the Republican column, but only if Frank Murkowski leaves.  He's been a disaster as governor, and his own party may be ready to throw him overboard.

Brad Henry in Oklahoma has Congressman Istook as a challenger, so this race could be one to watch.  Henry will have to win an overwhelming share of the rural vote to win.

I think Iowa is a pure tossup.  I'll defer to others who know more about this state's thinking right now.

Jim Doyle in Wisconsin will face Congressman Mark Green.  Could be a hard fought race, but I think Doyle has the edge.

Oregon will also be interesting.  I can't predict this one.  I don't even know if Kulongoski will even be renominated.
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2005, 08:39:06 PM »

For the GOP to take the state legislature in Louisiana they need to make some serious breakthroughs in rural districts; don't see any signs that they'll be able to do that. Not with the sort of Democrat you get in those areas...

True, but the wild card is party switchers.  I've heard that Senator Vitter has been on the lookout for potential party switchers.  If the Republicans pick up substantial ground in the legislature, a few North LA legislators may switch parties and bring them up to a majority.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2005, 11:43:41 AM »

True, but the wild card is party switchers.  I've heard that Senator Vitter has been on the lookout for potential party switchers.  If the Republicans pick up substantial ground in the legislature, a few North LA legislators may switch parties and bring them up to a majority.

There is always that possibility, yes. But to get to that stage, the Republicans actually have to make serious gains first. Can't completely rule it out though.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2005, 02:05:42 PM »

Whoa, pass around that crack pipe! I predict 55 GOP Governors as of 2007!

What a crock of sh**t this thread is.
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