Galactic Overlord
Jr. Member
Posts: 364
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« on: November 11, 2005, 08:36:22 PM » |
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My predictions:
I think the Democrats are certain to gain New York, and very likely to gain Massachusetts as well.
They stand a good chance in Maryland, though that will be slightly tougher. Ehlrich may well surprise us and win a second term.
I actually think they have a good shot at picking up Colorado, due to the major (and nasty) divisions in the Republican primary. I think the Colorado GOP has shot itself in the foot so many times I'm practically ready to throw this state to them.
California will certainly be competitive, another prime opportunity. We are all well familiar with Ah-nold's troubles.
I'd rate Arkansas as a tossup, it's a yellow dog Democratic state, and it may return to its roots next year.
Should Ken Blackwell win the nomination, he has a fighting chance to keep Ohio in the Republican column. He's already polling one or two points ahead of his prospective Democratic challengers. He's also won three past statewide races by solid margins, so he should be taken very, very seriously. The Democrats, if they win, will not win this in a walk.
I'd also watch Arizona. Dan Goldwater has been polling very well against Napolitano, and this could be a sleeper. It should be noted that she only won last time with 46%, one point ahead of her challenger.
Minnesota will be competitive, but by no means a sure thing for Democrats. Still, Pawlenty is no longer an overwhelming favorite for re-election. A bit too close for me to say, but Minnesota has been quite favorable to Republicans in state office, more than some might think.
Jim Gibbons will keep Nevada in the Republican column, provided he gets through the primary with little trouble.
I think Georgia and Florida will also stay in the Republican column. The Republican party on the local level is particularly strong in Florida, and they've done very well in local races as of late.
I would have written off Riley in Alabama, but he's polling well in the GOP primary, so there may be some resurgence in support. He's still in trouble, regardless, and if he loses, it won't be a surprise.
Alaska may stay in the Republican column, but only if Frank Murkowski leaves. He's been a disaster as governor, and his own party may be ready to throw him overboard.
Brad Henry in Oklahoma has Congressman Istook as a challenger, so this race could be one to watch. Henry will have to win an overwhelming share of the rural vote to win.
I think Iowa is a pure tossup. I'll defer to others who know more about this state's thinking right now.
Jim Doyle in Wisconsin will face Congressman Mark Green. Could be a hard fought race, but I think Doyle has the edge.
Oregon will also be interesting. I can't predict this one. I don't even know if Kulongoski will even be renominated.
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