DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[Diouf]

DR's result site allows you to look at results per multimember constituency:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/resultater/folketingsvalg

Christian Democrats prognosis in Western Jutland on 5.3%, which would be enough for a constituency seat.

And SK at 2.9% in Zealand, which apparently isn't enough. How much would they need?

It is standard D'hondt with 1, 2,3 divisors. There are 20 seats, but the exact point will depend on other parties. In 2015, the last seat required 3.92%

[Former President tack50]

So it seems that SK will barely miss all the thresholds?

[DavidB.]

Radikale now above DF. Oof. Meanwhile SK's returns don't seem to be good enough...

[mileslunn]

At this point looks like Red Bloc will win as Social Democrats have pulled ahead, my guess is urban polls take longer to come in thus why looked good for Blue Bloc at first.  Still will be interesting to see who meets threshold and what type of coalition is formed.

Although does look like Blue Bloc will outperform polls.  Probably something along the lines of 52-48 or 53-47 I am guessing when everything is counted.

[DavidB.]

At this point looks like Red Bloc will win as Social Democrats have pulled ahead, my guess is urban polls take longer to come in thus why looked good for Blue Bloc at first.  Still will be interesting to see who meets threshold and what type of coalition is formed.

Wow, thanks for this wonderful insight!

[Diouf]

Christian Democrats prognosis on 5.3% means they just take the 13th constituency seat in Western Jutland. Social Liberals are on their heels with 5.2%. The other quotas around the treshold is a 5th seat for Liberals (12th in order), and 5th seat for Social Democrats (15th in order).

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance on 0 seats in Northern Zealand, which means party leader and foreign minister Anders Samuelsen has lost his seat.

[Diouf]

So it seems that SK will barely miss all the thresholds?

I don't have the vote ratio calculation available. It would require for them to be markedly weaker in 1 of 3 regions. I don't think this looks likely, but I don't have any calculations. The constituency seat looks far away. 2% nationally probably their best bet.

[mileslunn]

What is the current Red Bloc vs. Blue Bloc results?  Likewise since Blocs are fairly fixed but with differences how long should it take before a government is formed?

[Diouf]

Social Liberals just went to prognosis of 5.3% in Western Jutland, passing Christian Democrats also on 5.3%, so they are out. Very tight for the 13th seat there.

[crals]

Liberal Alliance on 0 seats in Northern Zealand, which means party leader and foreign minister Anders Samuelsen has lost his seat.

Won't he get a compensatory seat?

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance on 0 seats in Northern Zealand, which means party leader and foreign minister Anders Samuelsen has lost his seat.

Won't he get a compensatory seat?

Not right now. Their 4 compensatory seats are in Copenhagen, Southern Jutland, Zealand and Eastern Jutland currently. But it is quite tight.

[Diouf]

92.3% counted in Western Jutland. Social Liberals and Christian Democrats still both projected on 5.3%, but Social Liberals apparently just ahead so KD is out.

[Diouf]

Social Democrat prognosis now to lose 0.1% compared to 2015. Probably due to city votes starting to come in. In Copenhagen they are at 18.1%, down 4.2%. However, still the largest party there as Red-Green Alliance is only at a projected 16.7%.
Liberals are having a quite good election for the party. At 23.4%, up 3.9%. This means 43 seats, up 9. The new Minister for Science and Higher Education, Tommy Ahlers, looks like he will get the party a lot of progress in Copenhagen. A projected 14.6%, up 4.3%. 3 seats, up 1.
Overall, it is of course still a loss as the PM post is very likely gone. But very interesting what Løkke (and his rivals) will do.

[lilTommy]

Social Democrat prognosis now to lose 0.1% compared to 2015. Probably due to city votes starting to come in. In Copenhagen they are at 18.1%, down 4.2%. However, still the largest party there as Red-Green Alliance is only at a projected 16.7%.
Liberals are having a quite good election for the party. At 23.4%, up 3.9%. This means 43 seats, up 9. The new Minister for Science and Higher Education, Tommy Ahlers, looks like he will get the party a lot of progress in Copenhagen. A projected 14.6%, up 4.3%. 3 seats, up 1.
Overall, it is of course still a loss as the PM post is very likely gone. But very interesting what Løkke (and his rivals) will do.

What happened to Red-Green? Losing votes to SF/B? They were polling as high as over 10% just in May?

[Diouf]

Social Democrat prognosis now to lose 0.1% compared to 2015. Probably due to city votes starting to come in. In Copenhagen they are at 18.1%, down 4.2%. However, still the largest party there as Red-Green Alliance is only at a projected 16.7%.
Liberals are having a quite good election for the party. At 23.4%, up 3.9%. This means 43 seats, up 9. The new Minister for Science and Higher Education, Tommy Ahlers, looks like he will get the party a lot of progress in Copenhagen. A projected 14.6%, up 4.3%. 3 seats, up 1.
Overall, it is of course still a loss as the PM post is very likely gone. But very interesting what Løkke (and his rivals) will do.

What happened to Red-Green? Losing votes to SF/B? They were polling as high as over 10% just in May?

As I wrote in the preview, some of the same things happened in 2015 when they lost the breath towards the end. They are down in every multi-member constituency, except Copenhagen. But yes, SPP probably took a fair share of their vote. Maybe Skipper's tone became too agressive towards the end, while Dyhr had a more conciliatory tone.

[seb_pard]

Social Democrat prognosis now to lose 0.1% compared to 2015. Probably due to city votes starting to come in. In Copenhagen they are at 18.1%, down 4.2%. However, still the largest party there as Red-Green Alliance is only at a projected 16.7%.
Liberals are having a quite good election for the party. At 23.4%, up 3.9%. This means 43 seats, up 9. The new Minister for Science and Higher Education, Tommy Ahlers, looks like he will get the party a lot of progress in Copenhagen. A projected 14.6%, up 4.3%. 3 seats, up 1.
Overall, it is of course still a loss as the PM post is very likely gone. But very interesting what Løkke (and his rivals) will do.

What happened to Red-Green? Losing votes to SF/B? They were polling as high as over 10% just in May?

As I wrote in the preview, some of the same things happened in 2015 when they lost the breath towards the end. They are down in every multi-member constituency, except Copenhagen. But yes, SPP probably took a fair share of their vote. Maybe Skipper's tone became too agressive towards the end, while Dyhr had a more conciliatory tone.

Did they lost momentum against SPP after the european election?

[Diouf]

All votes counted in Western Jutland. My quick math says Christian Democrats miss out on a constituency seat and parliamentary representation by 82 votes!

[Diouf]

Did they lost momentum against SPP after the european election?

You could say that. The EP election was also worse than expected for the Far Left Alliance (Red-Green Alliance + People's Movement against EU), so perhaps they were simply overpolled. More young voters and minorities who maybe didn't turn up in the end.

[Diouf]

All votes counted in Western Jutland. My quick math says Christian Democrats miss out on a constituency seat and parliamentary representation by 82 votes!

Official results.
Social Liberals win the 13th seat on 17 202 votes
Christian Democrats miss out with 17 013

So it was 189 vote difference. I don't really know whether there are provisions for recounts. I think they normally automatically recount everything tomorrow, when they count personal votes. But recounts of course rarely changes anything. Really close for KD.

[Diouf]

97.4% counted

The compensatory seats are jumping back and forward. But right now, the four LA seats are Copenhagen, Zealand, Eastern Jutland and Western Jutland. So no seat in Northern Zealand for party leader and Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen. Deputy leader and Minister for Economy and Interior, Simon Emil Ammitzbøll, will win the seat in Copenhagen, Minister of Transport, Ole Birk Olesen, will win the seat in Eastern Jutland. Zealand and Western Jutland would see the young Laura Lindahl and Alex Vanopslagh winning seats. Lindahl has been a MP since 2015 and is also a Frederiksberg councillor. Vanopslagh is a former LA Youth leader.
If these are their new 4 MP group, Ammitzbøll will be the heir apparent. Other strong cards like Christina Egelund and Joachim B. Olsen are also gone.

[jaichind]

So in the end the vote share of the Red bloc (including Å) is only around 52% ?

[Diouf]

New Right's 4 seats look like going the expected way. Party leader Pernille Vermund wins a seat in Southern Jutland, deputy leader Peter Seier Christensen winning a seat in Zealand, former Aarhus councillor Lars Boje Mathiesen winning a seat in Eastern Jutland, and the party's only councillor, Mette Thiesen, winning a seat in Northern Zealand. But again compensatory seats can jump back and forward based on small changes in their and others' party share.

[Diouf]

Løkke announcing that his government will resign tomorrow due to the election result, and that he will recommend that the queen calls a "queen round" to be held tomorrow. This means all parties send two representatives to the queen to tell who their preferred PM is. The alternative left wing parties have made different statements at different times. But based on what they have said recently, it might be something like this. Alternative prefers Uffe Elbæk as PM (but might say that their second option is a humanist, green government with another PM), Social Liberals have talked about wanting a government contract with pro-EU views, a responsible economic policies, looser immigration policies etc, SPP has said their first preference is to join the government so it would be logical if that was their message to the queen. The red-greens have not been super clear, but they might also make a conditional support for Frederiksen like the Social Liberals (with other economic preference of course).

[Diouf]

So in the end the vote share of the Red bloc (including Å) is only around 52% ?

Yes. 52.2% right now. A 4.5% increase compared to the 47.7% received in 2015, but lower than the 53.5% in the last polling average and the 54-55% they routinely had in the polls during the campaign. Perhaps there were a lot of doubters among 2015 Blue Bloc voters, who ended up opting for a Blue party again. The three blue parties below the treshold means the seat win is bigger.