CA 48

[Brandon H]

The Primary was held on Oct. 4 and no candidate got over 50% so there will be a run-off on Dec. 6 between the top vote getters of each party.

Primary results: http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/e26/results.htm

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)       41420       45.5%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP)    15595    17.1%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI)    13423    14.8%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM)    7941    8.7%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN)       790       0.9%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB)    731    0.8%

Campbell, Gilchrist, Young, Tiritilli, and Cohen advance to the run-off. There were about 10 candidates who got 1% or less of the vote. Voter turn-out (which was at 22% in the primary) will be the key along with where Brewer's supports end up going.

[Sam Spade]

The Democrat will get most of Brewer's votes.  This is one of the GOP's safer, more reliable districts in CA. (Orange County)

Expect the final total to be in the range of:

Campbell 50%-55%
Young 25%-30%
Gilchrist 15%-20%
Others 0%-5%