Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

It would be fitting for the woke intersectionality crowd to settle on a WASP candidate who projects what they've judged as the right kind of white guilt over more accomplished competitors whose victories would actually matter in terms of representation.

You have a gay mayor, a Jewish Senator, several female Senators, two black Senators, an Asian entrepreneur, a Hispanic Cabinet Secretary, and others. Even Joe Biden of all people at least has a claim to working class roots.

Telling an audience that slavery is directly connected to mass incarceration of black people for profit and it must be dismantled in its current form is white guilt? K. Just sounds like the truth to me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sure, of course it was a personal donation from someone who just happens to work as a lobbyist for the fossil fuels industry. You're not getting any red flags from that at all?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1119307423905226758

Looks like you have to find something else to be faux outraged about.

[libertpaulian]

It would be fitting for the woke intersectionality crowd to settle on a WASP candidate who projects what they've judged as the right kind of white guilt over more accomplished competitors whose victories would actually matter in terms of representation.

You have a gay mayor, a Jewish Senator, several female Senators, two black Senators, an Asian entrepreneur, a Hispanic Cabinet Secretary, and others. Even Joe Biden of all people at least has a claim to working class roots.

Telling an audience that slavery is directly connected to mass incarceration of black people for profit and it must be dismantled in its current form is white guilt? K. Just sounds like the truth to me.

Every Democrat talks about that, albeit with varying degrees of subtlety.

O'Rourke's emphasis on his race has been covered as a major campaign theme and there's every reason to believe that his campaign desires this coverage.

I know it sucks, but our next President is going to be to the right of Fidel Castro.  Get used to it.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It would be fitting for the woke intersectionality crowd to settle on a WASP candidate who projects what they've judged as the right kind of white guilt over more accomplished competitors whose victories would actually matter in terms of representation.

You have a gay mayor, a Jewish Senator, several female Senators, two black Senators, an Asian entrepreneur, a Hispanic Cabinet Secretary, and others. Even Joe Biden of all people at least has a claim to working class roots.

Telling an audience that slavery is directly connected to mass incarceration of black people for profit and it must be dismantled in its current form is white guilt? K. Just sounds like the truth to me.

Every Democrat talks about that, albeit with varying degrees of subtlety.

O'Rourke's emphasis on his race has been covered as a major campaign theme and there's every reason to believe that his campaign desires this coverage.

I know it sucks, but our next President is going to be to the right of Fidel Castro.  Get used to it.

Beto O'Rourke is not going to be our next President.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would be fitting for the woke intersectionality crowd to settle on a WASP candidate who projects what they've judged as the right kind of white guilt over more accomplished competitors whose victories would actually matter in terms of representation.

You have a gay mayor, a Jewish Senator, several female Senators, two black Senators, an Asian entrepreneur, a Hispanic Cabinet Secretary, and others. Even Joe Biden of all people at least has a claim to working class roots.

Telling an audience that slavery is directly connected to mass incarceration of black people for profit and it must be dismantled in its current form is white guilt? K. Just sounds like the truth to me.

Every Democrat talks about that, albeit with varying degrees of subtlety.

O'Rourke's emphasis on his race has been covered as a major campaign theme and there's every reason to believe that his campaign desires this coverage.

I know it sucks, but our next President is going to be to the right of Fidel Castro.  Get used to it.

Beto O'Rourke is not going to be our next President.

This is inaccurate statement.  There is gonna be an anti-Sanders candidate. If Biden runs,  it will be him. If its not split, between Harris or Beto.  It depends on Biden. Then, there is the Tim Ryan, who is lurking around.

[SCNCmod]

Why is Beto not doing any of the CNN town hall's yet?  Or any of the Cable News shows?  ...If he did a media offensive like Pete- Beto would easily jump into the mid to high teens in the polls.

 (and its not because he lacks policy detail knowledge... he takes tough questions every day on the campaign trail & is very well versed regarding policy.  Many candidates focus on overall Policy goals- ie platitudes- rather than too many detailed policy prescription early on, for good reason... Obama did this, Pete has said he is also purposely doing this, etc.  )

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He only went on Oprah

[SCNCmod]

He only went on Oprah

That was very early on... a real media offensive involves the widely viewed CNN Town Halls, multiple Cable show appearances, the view, etc etc.  Also regarding Oprah- I'm not sure it was all that widely viewed since she's not on a major network anymore.  But even if, you need to be reinserting yourself in the media fairly often, especially in a crowded field, and also so that you can control the narrative rather than letting the talking heads do so.

Most candidates are about to do their 2nd CNN Town Hall, and some candidates like Buttigieg have made at least 20 appearances on various media shows in the last 3 weeks alone.

(my guess is that candidates like Beto... and somewhat Kamala- although she's done the CNN Town Halls & a few cable appearances... but my guess is both of them are placing a lot of importance on slowly growing then peaking at the right time, since early frontrunners seem to almost never come out on top.  

But Beto needs to be careful not to wait too long- and I think in general, due to the far more than usual number of qualified candidates, I'm not sure the peak at the right time strategy will be quite as effective as it may have been in the past.  That said- I do think some aspect of it will come into play, because "exceeding expectations" is such a big part of politics.  And in the latter part of the primary, if you are already on top, its almost impossible to exceed expectations- compared to the candidate that starts to rise in the polls.  (So who knows what strategy works best- best either way, Beto needs to at least start having some presence on Cable/ Media shows).

[RI]

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/beto-orourke-becky-bond-campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

People know who Beto is, for better or worse.

[GoTfan]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

The problem here is that town halls allow candidates to be questioned on their policy positions by voters. It might give off the impression that he doesn't want to be questioned who that he's not confident enough to be questioned.

Not saying it would, but he needs to finesse this point really carefully.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

The problem here is that town halls allow candidates to be questioned on their policy positions by voters. It might give off the impression that he doesn't want to be questioned who that he's not confident enough to be questioned.

Not saying it would, but he needs to finesse this point really carefully.

Huh? He has been doing town halls and taking questions for weeks. And posting them on his social media. This thing about being on CNN is just tremendously overblown. He will go on there when he’s good and ready.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

Keep telling yourself that.

Looks like Beto has got some good people heading his campaign in South Carolina.
Here’s who’s running Beto O’Rourke’s South Carolina campaign
Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke is forming his South Carolina campaign team, choosing veterans with ties to local elected officials whose endorsements would be considered coups in the Palmetto State.

The former U.S. congressman from Texas has selected Lauren Harper and Tyler Jones to serve as state director and senior adviser, respectively, according to an official announcement shared first with McClatchy.

Harper is a former policy and communications adviser to Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin, the city’s first black chief executive and current president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

[GoTfan]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

The problem here is that town halls allow candidates to be questioned on their policy positions by voters. It might give off the impression that he doesn't want to be questioned who that he's not confident enough to be questioned.

Not saying it would, but he needs to finesse this point really carefully.

Huh? He has been doing town halls and taking questions for weeks. And posting them on his social media. This thing about being on CNN is just tremendously overblown. He will go on there when he’s good and ready.

If someone said that about another candidate you'd froth at the mouth in hatred.

[SCNCmod]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Here is Iowa 2003-04 Polls. (the most similar primary to the current one)...

Iowa'03......JAN.....JUNE....JULY....DEC...(JAN1...JAN15)...Final Result
Gephardt.....23.......25........21.......22........(20...18)..........10%  ....Biden/Bernie?
Dean...........8........15........23.......26........(23...20)...........18%  .....Buttigieg?
Kerry..........24.......15........14........9.........(18...26)...........37%  .......Bernie/Biden?
Lieberman...13.......11........10........2...........(1...1)
Edwards......9.........5..........5.........5...........(9...23)...........32%  ........Beto?

Also- Throw in Wes Clark- who entered in late August & shot up to number 1 in the polls in Iowa... only to fall back and not finish in the top 5.

If the polls play out similar to above- Beto could easily win Iowa (Edwards probably would have won Iowa that year had the the caucus date been a week later). BTW- Beto's campaign manager was on the Edwards campaign... and the Obama campaign when he won Iowa (via a somewhat surge later in the year in 2007-08).

[GoTfan]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Here is Iowa 2003-04 Polls. (the most similar primary to the current one)...

Iowa'03......JAN.....JUNE....JULY....DEC...(JAN1...JAN15)...Final Result
Gephardt.....23.......25........21.......22........(20...18)..........10%  ....Biden?
Dean...........8........15........23.......26........(23...20)...........18%  .....Buttigieg?
Kerry..........24.......15........14........9.........(18...26)...........37%  .......Bernie?
Lieberman...13.......11........10........2...........(1...1)
Edwards......9.........5..........5.........5...........(9...23)...........32%  ........Beto?

Also- Throw in Wes Clark- who entered in late August & shot up to number 1 in the polls in Iowa... only to fall back and not finish in the top 5.

I would be very, very careful about applying stories from past primaries here. If there's one thing I've learnt so far, it's that this primary is going to be one of the most unpredictable.

[SCNCmod]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Here is Iowa 2003-04 Polls. (the most similar primary to the current one)...

Iowa'03......JAN.....JUNE....JULY....DEC...(JAN1...JAN15)...Final Result
Gephardt.....23.......25........21.......22........(20...18)..........10%  ....Biden/Bernie?
Dean...........8........15........23.......26........(23...20)...........18%  .....Buttigieg?
Kerry..........24.......15........14........9.........(18...26)...........37%  .......Bernie/Biden?
Lieberman...13.......11........10........2...........(1...1)
Edwards......9.........5..........5.........5...........(9...23)...........32%  ........Beto?

Also- Throw in Wes Clark- who entered in late August & shot up to number 1 in the polls in Iowa... only to fall back and not finish in the top 5.

I would be very, very careful about applying stories from past primaries here. If there's one thing I've learnt so far, it's that this primary is going to be one of the most unpredictable.

Sure- I agree with your point in general.  But there are psychological and political reasons that early leaders in Iowa, very often end up not winning the caucus... and a candidate further back in the pack ends up surging to the top spot or top 2 on caucus day.

Also- if you specifically look to 2004- there are many similarities. A year when many Dems were running to get to face Bush (who had lost the Popular vote in the prior election).  And you could certainly make the case that there are some similarities in candidates:

(Howard Dean~ Buttigieg ... Kerry~ Bernie... Gephardt~ Biden... Beto~ Edwards)... and Iowa'04 really did end up being a toss up b/n Kerry & Edwards- and could have very easily gone either way.

Young, New, Charismatic candidates have a history of late surges in Iowa (Obama & Edwards are good examples).  One thing that helps these two young X-factor personality candidates surge in Iowa... their spouses reluctantly hit the campaign trail in Iowa in Fall. This is something that the Beto campaign may want to think about. (I think the presence of their spouses seemed to help to ground these lighter resume, yet very charasmatic & likeable candidates in the minds of Iowa Voters.. and probably also helped reach some younger female voters, who identified why Elizabeth & Michelle).

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/DavidLauter/status/1120440021935427602

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/DavidLauter/status/1120440021935427602

Very interesting. A lot of candidates are heading to California very early. Not surprising. I was under the impression that Kamala would win in a blowout.

[SCNCmod]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Here is Iowa 2003-04 Polls. (the most similar primary to the current one)...

Iowa'03......JAN.....JUNE....JULY....DEC...(JAN1...JAN15)...Final Result
Gephardt.....23.......25........21.......22........(20...18)..........10%  ....Biden/Bernie?
Dean...........8........15........23.......26........(23...20)...........18%  .....Buttigieg?
Kerry..........24.......15........14........9.........(18...26)...........37%  .......Bernie/Biden?
Lieberman...13.......11........10........2...........(1...1)
Edwards......9.........5..........5.........5...........(9...23)...........32%  ........Beto?

Also- Throw in Wes Clark- who entered in late August & shot up to number 1 in the polls in Iowa... only to fall back and not finish in the top 5.

I would be very, very careful about applying stories from past primaries here. If there's one thing I've learnt so far, it's that this primary is going to be one of the most unpredictable.

Sure- I agree with your point in general.  But there are psychological and political reasons that early leaders in Iowa, very often end up not winning the caucus... and a candidate further back in the pack ends up surging to the top spot or top 2 on caucus day.

Also- if you specifically look to 2004- there are many similarities. A year when many Dems were running to get to face Bush (who had lost the Popular vote in the prior election).  And you could certainly make the case that there are some similarities in candidates:

(Howard Dean~ Buttigieg ... Kerry~ Bernie... Gephardt~ Biden... Beto~ Edwards)... and Iowa'04 really did end up being a toss up b/n Kerry & Edwards- and could have very easily gone either way.

Young, New, Charismatic candidates have a history of late surges in Iowa (Obama & Edwards are good examples).

I'm pretty familiar with John Edwards.. and the Edwards '04 Campaign was the 1st campaign I ever volunteered for as a teenager.   Beto & Edward '04 have very similar interpersonal skills and campaign styles.  And Edwards could have easily been the 2004 Dem Nominee, had timing of a few things been slightly different. (he came in a close 2nd in Iowa & easily won SC... Had he Won Iowa & SC... that election would have been a lot closer).... And Edwards was never over 7-8%, until late in the year in 2003, despite some early Beto-type buzz. (5 other candidates had at some point been near the 20% range throughout the year... Gephardt, Kerry, Dean, Liberman, Wes Clark).

If Beto could surge late & win Iowa, then win Nevada (Beto's home region.. similar to Edwards & SC)... he could be in a similar position that Edwards would have been in had he won Iowa/SC.  

...Edwards in '04 was VERY different than Edwards in '08, at which time all of the new found power/fame had gone to his head ... his marriage had deteriorated over time following the earlier death of the Edward's son, etc. For good reason Edwards has a bad reputation regarding his political career, now... but Edwards in 2003-04 was a genuine and good candidate & had a message (Two America's- one for the wealthy & one for everyone else) that proved to be pretty on target- a message largely influenced by being the 1st in his family to attend college & growing up in small mill towns in the Carolina's (and least IMO).

John Edwards in 2003 had just recently got involved in politics, I think as a search for a sense of purpose... following the sudden death of his 16 year old son Wade- who died in a freak 1 car accident as he was driving to their beach house with a friend... (a son he was very close too, they had just recently hiked Kilimanjaro together in Africa, etc). A purpose in which he was still in touch with during his 1st Presidential campaign as the newly elected NC Senator (That US Senate race in NC was his first time ever running for office).

[7,052,770]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Will we? Several prominent posters here didn't support Hillary in 2016 even though they would have supported Bernie, and millions of Americans who preferred her win over Trump voted 3rd party, stayed home, or #WriteInBernie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Will we? Several prominent posters here didn't support Hillary in 2016 even though they would have supported Bernie, and millions of Americans who preferred her win over Trump voted 3rd party, stayed home, or #WriteInBernie.

Trump tax cuts for millionaires and repeal of Obamacare does nothing: help people pay down student loans, increase the minimum wage to combat housing costs.  That's why, we will support even Sanders