Quinnipiac: Trump at 47% approval, 50% disapproval in TX

[ON Progressive]

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2601

I was told that 2018 TX-Sen was totally a one-off that only happened because D+8 year and "uniquely unlikeable Ted Cruz" (who has a 51/40 approval in this poll but that ruins the narrative!)

[lfromnj]

I was also told by pundits that Cornyn was really popular. This poll confirms that with his +15 approval rating.

If Beto runs he is the incumbent not Cornyn. He would be smart to rather not define the race around Cruz like 2018(which wasn't a bad strategy against the polarizing Cruz in a turnout state) but rather to define it around himself and better yet Donald Trump.

[Del Tachi]

This is actually quite a good poll for Trump, given how atrocious his approval ratings typically are.  There's a sizeable number of "Disapproving" voters who will vote for him once they realize there's an actual Democratic nominee who will say/do stupid things and/or have flaws.

[2016]

This is actually quite a good poll for Trump, given how atrocious his approval ratings typically are.  There's a sizeable number of "Disapproving" voters who will vote for him once they realize there's an actual Democratic nominee who will say/do stupid things and/or have flaws.

Espciallly if it's a radical Progressive Nominee like Harris, Sanders, Booker, O'Rourke, etc.

[ElectionsGuy]

Obviously, there are people who disapprove but will vote for him anyway. I think all Trump needs to be at is higher than -10 approval in a state in order to have the potential to win it.

[Politician]

Likely R, closer to Lean then Safe though.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

This is actually quite a good poll for Trump, given how atrocious his approval ratings typically are.  There's a sizeable number of "Disapproving" voters who will vote for him once they realize there's an actual Democratic nominee who will say/do stupid things and/or have flaws.

Espciallly if it's a radical Progressive Nominee like Harris, Sanders, Booker, O'Rourke, etc.

Cory Booker?

Radical progressive?

What?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

So excited to be able to campaign my heart out for Beto and whoever the Democratic nominee is, Texas has at least two New Democrats here since 2018. 

[_]

This is actually quite a good poll for Trump, given how atrocious his approval ratings typically are.  There's a sizeable number of "Disapproving" voters who will vote for him once they realize there's an actual Democratic nominee who will say/do stupid things and/or have flaws.

Espciallly if it's a radical Progressive Nominee like Harris, Sanders, Booker, O'Rourke, etc.

Cory Booker?

Radical progressive?

What?

The bigger thing there is the fact that BETO WOULD LOSE VOTERS WHO PROBABLY VOTED FOR HIM over being a "Radical Progressive"

[Old Man Willow]

Kind of crazy to think that Trump's approval is about the same in TX as in AZ.

[mgop]

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2601

I was told that 2018 TX-Sen was totally a one-off that only happened because D+8 year and "uniquely unlikeable Ted Cruz" (who has a 51/40 approval in this poll but that ruins the narrative!)

so you are really hoping that any democrat can win texas next year? lol good luck with that...

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how accepting we are now of a Republican President having numbers underwater in Texas of all places.

[Matty]

It's amazing how accepting we are now of a Republican President having numbers underwater in Texas of all places.

It’s not that interesting because a significant portion will hold their nose and vote for him. If this Q poll is accurate, he likely wins the state by 6 or so.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Republicans don't have to like Trump to support him. This is a current refrain I hear from my more pro-Trump friends.

[Zaybay]

i think the big question isnt if Trump is underwater or above in key states, like TX, IA, GA, etc. The big question is how large the "I dont like Trump but Im gonna vote for him anyway" is.

This is really rough, but in 2018, Trump had an approval around 42/55 and the House Vote was 45/53, or about a 5 point overpreformance by the GOP on Trump's approval. I dont know if this will be true for Trump, or if this rough analysis is even really valid, but it's all we really got .

[IceSpear]

This is actually quite a good poll for Trump, given how atrocious his approval ratings typically are.  There's a sizeable number of "Disapproving" voters who will vote for him once they realize there's an actual Democratic nominee who will say/do stupid things and/or have flaws.

His approval rating isn't atrocious at the moment though? He's more or less at his -9 baseline, the same approval he got in the 2018 exit poll.

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how accepting we are now of a Republican President having numbers underwater in Texas of all places.

It’s not that interesting because a significant portion will hold their nose and vote for him. If this Q poll is accurate, he likely wins the state by 6 or so.

But it's Texas, no Republican should be in the negatives there.

[Matty]

I think this poll might be too unfriendly to Orange man

If he is truly at 44/53 or 45/52 approval nationally, I doubt he is only at 47 in TX

I think Q oversamples suburban swing voters too much

[lfromnj]

I think this poll might be too unfriendly to Orange man

If he is truly at 44/53 or 45/52 approval nationally, I doubt he is only at 47 in TX

I think Q oversamples suburban swing voters too much

which is why super popular Ted Cruz is at +10 after only winning by 3 points.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think this poll might be too unfriendly to Orange man

If he is truly at 44/53 or 45/52 approval nationally, I doubt he is only at 47 in TX

I think Q oversamples suburban swing voters too much

I am not sure it is really.

I am reminded of polls that showed Trump tied in the South and leading in the Midwest in terms of regionally aggregated polling. This ended up manifested in things like OH and IA voting about the same as TX and GA being so close.

These off season polls tend to pick up on these things in the Trump era and illustrate both dislike for Trump by Never Trump Republicans, and also a rising floor for Democrats in the Sunbelt.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also if Trump is -8 nationally and -3 in TX that means TX is 5% more pro-Trump than the nation as a whole. Account for the people who voted Trump last minute because of the Comey letter and such, as well as continued gains for the Democrats over time and the numbers aren't too far off from what I would expect.

[mgop]

I think this poll might be too unfriendly to Orange man

If he is truly at 44/53 or 45/52 approval nationally, I doubt he is only at 47 in TX

I think Q oversamples suburban swing voters too much

which is why super popular Ted Cruz is at +10 after only winning by 3 points.

trump won texas with +9%, but yeah lets believe in quinnipiac polls who failed miserably in all crucial states in 2016: pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, florida and even north carolina!

[Xing]

Well, considering Trump is at -4 in Iowa, which is Titanium R and way less likely to flip than KS, MS, SC, and MT, Trump at -3 must mean that Texas is also Titanium R.

[IceSpear]

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B-b-b-b-but I thought Republicans and WWC white men loved liberty and hated eminent domain and government overreach and stuffs. Don't tread on me!!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I keep saying this but Texas won't flip in 2020 even in spite of the encouraging numbers and demographic shifts. However, if it ends up being as close or even closer than in 2016, it definitely confirms my constant suspicion (even this early on) that Trump will not win the popular vote...again and maybe not even come close.