My Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump Map

[538Electoral]

Trump 322
Warren 216

I think Warren is the worst Democrat running at this time.

What does your map look like?

[McGarnagle]

I don't think Warren will be the nominee, I think it will be Bernie

If she is though, I think she flips Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania could go either way

She'd win the popular vote but the EC would be up in the air

About a 50% chance she wins or loses, it's either a really close win or 2016 redux

[Frenchrepublican]

She would be one of the worst possible democratic candidate but I don’t think that MN and Nv would flip maybe NH but NV is fairly unleastic and Trump is very unpopular in the Minneapolis area so even someone like Warren would be favored to win Minnesota

[Da2017]

Not the worst I,d say,but she definitely one of the weaker ones.

[S019]

Trump/Pence: 326 EV 49.7%
Warren/Bullock: 212 EV 49.5%

Also Kamala Harris will be the nominee

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

280 - 258

[Rookie Yinzer]

She will lose. Trump will continue to use the Native American stuff to drive up the narrative that Warren is fundamentally corrupt and dishonest even though he has sh**t all over the rule of law. Fortunately for him Democrats are much more inclined to stay home or vote third party if they dislike a candidate. The Democratic nominee will have to be damn near perfect.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

She would do worse than Clinton i believe. Trump would do (much) better in the South and Mountain states. Warren would slightly underperform Clinton in the West. I still think she narrowly carries Nevada but it would be close. I'm less sure about the Rust Belt. Those states could go either way, but i just think Trump narrowly carries MN, WI, MI and PA. Warren would improve Clinton's numbers in the North-east because of more regional appeal and Trump not being popular there. Warren would underperform Clinton in the PV but still carry the PV.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump 322
Warren 216

I think Warren is the worst Democrat running at this time.

What does your map look like?

This

[538Electoral]

Calculated based on the 7 maps of this thread so far

The general opinion of Atlas seems to be my exact map.

[IceSpear]

Something like this I guess. At this point in time I'd bet on Trump, but a million different things can happen in the next 2 years.

And yes, Virginia/Ohio are safe. Get over it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie or Harris would win the 279, Bernie is stronger in IA. Warren would be the weakest

[Skill and Chance]

Looks about right. I wouldn't assume any relative strength in northern New England, though.

[

This might be her ceiling.

[MT Treasurer]

Something like this I guess. At this point in time I'd bet on Trump, but a million different things can happen in the next 2 years.

And yes, Virginia/Ohio are safe. Get over it.

If OH is Safe R and MN a Toss-up, IA should definitely be Safe R, not Likely R. I don’t get why this forum thinks IA voting to the right of OH is such an impossible scenario even though it happened in 2016. I pretty much agree with the rest of your map though, especially NH/ME.

[Xing]

Something like this I guess. At this point in time I'd bet on Trump, but a million different things can happen in the next 2 years.

And yes, Virginia/Ohio are safe. Get over it.

If OH is Safe R and MN a Toss-up, IA should definitely be Safe R, not Likely R. I don’t get why this forum thinks IA voting to the right of OH is such an impossible scenario even though it happened in 2016. I pretty much agree with the rest of your map though, especially NH/ME.

And why do you think that it's inevitable?

Anyway, I'd move Maine to Lean D and Nevada to Likely D, otherwise I think IceSpear's map is pretty good.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Atlas: Minnesota is trending R fast due to Republican populists like Trump!

also Atlas: a populist Democrat like Elizabeth Warren would lose Minnesota

[Technocracy Timmy]

[IceSpear]

Atlas: Minnesota is trending R fast due to Republican populists like Trump!

also Atlas: a populist Democrat like Elizabeth Warren would lose Minnesota

Haha, Warren could run the most #populist campaign in US history, and it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference if middle school drop out Joe Sixpack "perceives" her as a shrill elitist bitch, which he probably would.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Atlas: Minnesota is trending R fast due to Republican populists like Trump!

also Atlas: a populist Democrat like Elizabeth Warren would lose Minnesota

Haha, Warren could run the most #populist campaign in US history, and it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference if middle school drop out Joe Sixpack "perceives" her as a shrill elitist bitch, which he probably would.

Joe Sixpack already had that perception of Hillary in 2016 and she won Minnesota against blank-slate Trump. I'm as much of a subscriber to the "Trump will still dominate in rural areas" narrative as you but he's bound to face some attrition at the margins now that he's been in office for several years and voters can't project whatever they want onto him. The only way Warren would lose Minnesota would be if there was a mass defection of educated urban/suburban voters and, given the alternative of a Donald Trump reelection, I think that's unlikely to happen. Also hard not to see Warren doing at least as well with women as Hillary did (I think she'd do better) which means the defection would have to be almost entirely male.

[RaphaelDLG]

Two observations:
1) In the unlikely event that Warren wins the 2020 primary, it will likely be due to some phenomenal resonance with Americans or some unusual strength as a candidate, not because she was "next in line," had a ton of money, or a ton of establishment support... So in that case, she'd be a far more formidable candidate that most here are giving her credit for.

2) I'm very much in the camp that, while candidate quality is vitally important, and Trump is consistently underestimated by the average person on here, depending on how the next year unfolds we could get to the point where any democrat with a pulse could beat Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

She would probably win Nevada by a smaller than usual margin for a Democrat but beyond that, I agree with the map that has everything the same as 2016 but with Trump picking up Minnesota.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Between the negative agricultural effects of Trump's tariffs, Clinton's hawkish record, and Warren's economic populism, I don't see Warren doing any worse than Clinton did in IA/MN/WI.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Between the negative agricultural effects of Trump's tariffs, Clinton's hawkish record, and Warren's economic populism, I don't see Warren doing any worse than Clinton did in IA/MN/WI.

None of that actually matters though. She's "Pocahontas" and will turn America into Venezuela.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Between the negative agricultural effects of Trump's tariffs, Clinton's hawkish record, and Warren's economic populism, I don't see Warren doing any worse than Clinton did in IA/MN/WI.

None of that actually matters though. She's "Pocahontas" and will turn America into Venezuela.

You're somewhat onto something. Warren's advantages over Hillary can be more than negated by weaknesses she has that Hillary didn't have.