KY-SUSA: Bevin at 27% approval/54% disapproval, worse in rurals than urban

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1098568769448878081?s=21

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1098569279266525184

[MT Treasurer]

in b4 all the "Safe R because of polarization/red states don’t elect Democrats anymore" hottakes

[Zaybay]

Geez, thats really low.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky is Kentucky, but a governor with that low approval is never safe, in any state.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

in b4 all the "Safe R because of polarization/red states don’t elect Democrats anymore" hottakes

I don't think KY is that polarized compared to the vast majority of the south and have said repeatedly that Democrats are underestimated in this race. If Paul's Dem opponent could get 43% in 2016 with Trump on the top of the ballot than Bevin's opponent can inch past him. I would be surprised if the Dem made it to 50.1% or above though.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, not buying that he’s less popular in rurals than urban at all, sorry Politician.

Unless they think he’s not racist enough for them, that is.

Really something to STILL insult rural voters when they're polled exactly as you would (hopefully) want them to be...

[Politician]

Yeah, I can totally buy Bevin being more unpopular in rural areas then urban areas, especially since many of Kentucky's rural areas are still Democratic down-ballot and Kentucky has a lot of right-wing urban areas and suburbs.

[Xing]

Just because he's not popular in the rural areas doesn't mean they'll actually vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, not buying that he’s less popular in rurals than urban at all, sorry Politician.

Unless they think he’s not racist enough for them, that is.

Really something to STILL insult rural voters when they're polled exactly as you would (hopefully) want them to be...

I think you’re confusing me with someone else. I’ve always been on the IceSpear train when it comes to giving up on racist rednecks in unwinnable states. I’m not for giving up on the WWC, which you seem to be equating

I'm well aware of your contempt for rural people, insinuating in your first post that they are all racist and that's all they vote on.  What I am saying is that it really takes a lot to see a poll that shows rural voters AGREEING with your presumed position, and you're more dismissive of it than excited, with your first instinct to be to find a way to insult them.  It'd be like a poll of a Democratic governor being uncharacteristically unpopular with urban Black voters and a Republican saying, "this can't possibly be true, unless of course the governor isn't giving out enough handouts, even for them."

[Zaybay]

I would appreciate if SUSA would define what each area is in KY, for definition is highly important in this matter.

[Skye]

Kentucky is Kentucky, but a governor with that low approval is never safe, in any state.

[Zaybay]

The rurals being more angered at Bevin than Urban areas/Suburban areas do make a sort of sense, sort of. All the stuff that Bevin has been doing that has angered KY, the Teacher's Union fight, the Pension reform, these issues directly hurt rural KY more than Urban or Suburban KY. Much of Rural KY is, or was, a part of a Union, or has a pension from the government. Compared to the Urban, more business loaded areas of Lexington and Louisville, rural KY is rather disproportionately effected by Bevin's actions. Rural KY is also just kinda weird, and still pretty D downballot.

Anyway, thats just my theory

[Sestak]

Jesus, those are just some very low numbers.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s not like his numbers in urban and suburban areas are that much higher lol.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Can't wait for IceSpear to bump this thread in a year as proof everyone on Atlas thought Kentucky was Safe D and he was the one guy with any sanity.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, not buying that he’s less popular in rurals than urban at all, sorry Politician.

Unless they think he’s not racist enough for them, that is.

Really something to STILL insult rural voters when they're polled exactly as you would (hopefully) want them to be...

I think you’re confusing me with someone else. I’ve always been on the IceSpear train when it comes to giving up on racist rednecks in unwinnable states. I’m not for giving up on the WWC, which you seem to be equating

I'm well aware of your contempt for rural people, insinuating in your first post that they are all racist and that's all they vote on.  What I am saying is that it really takes a lot to see a poll that shows rural voters AGREEING with your presumed position, and you're more dismissive of it than excited, with your first instinct to be to find a way to insult them.  It'd be like a poll of a Democratic governor being uncharacteristically unpopular with urban Black voters and a Republican saying, "this can't possibly be true, unless of course the governor isn't giving out enough handouts, even for them."

I don’t believe they all are. Probably a little more than half though

I also find your pearl clutching pretty funny since I’ve almost certainly spent more of my life in a rural area than you have

I think generalizing people too broadly like that is just kind of bogus, regardless of where you grew up ... but I digress, and I don't want to derail the thread.

[2016]

Bevin is finished.

D GAIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone assumes that the Ohio region is gonna vote for Trump, weakness in R numbers im KY, IA and Va, shows optimism for Dems to reclaim Ohio, again

[Adam Griffin]

It's not hard to believe that Bevin is less popular in rural KY than elsewhere. Bevin isn't Donald Trump: he's a rich, status quo Republican who has targeted a whole host of services and programs that Kentuckians from all backgrounds (but particularly the poor and/or rural) rely on in order to save money for himself and his wealthy friends, while throwing out a bit of Trump-style pandering that is blatantly see-through. Rural KY is also much more ancestrally Democratic than the rest of the state, and Bevin was elected in a tough time for Democrats and against a weak Democratic candidate - he was NOT elected because people like him.

That of course doesn't mean that these areas will vote for a Democrat this year (see: OK-GOV 2018; almost an identical situation), but throwing out a poll because of this observation in Kentucky of all places is uncalled for right now.

[Mr. Smith]

This could just mean that the turnout drops even more, which allows him comfy re-election anyway.

After all, one doesn't have to vote at all to disprove, even if that's certainly the most effective way.

[junior chįmp]

It's not hard to believe that Bevin is less popular in rural KY than elsewhere. Bevin isn't Donald Trump: he's a rich, status quo Republican who has targeted a whole host of services and programs that Kentuckians from all backgrounds (but particularly the poor and/or rural) rely on in order to save money for himself and his wealthy friends, while throwing out a bit of Trump-style pandering that is blatantly see-through. Rural KY is also much more ancestrally Democratic than the rest of the state, and Bevin was elected in a tough time for Democrats and against a weak Democratic candidate - he was NOT elected because people like him.

That of course doesn't mean that these areas will vote for a Democrat this year (see: OK-GOV 2018; almost an identical situation), but throwing out a poll because of this observation in Kentucky of all places is uncalled for right now.

lol

[Young Conservative]

Its pretty unsurprising that his approvals are higher in the suburbs. Kentucky history would suggest that already.

[morgieb]

Isn't SurveyUSA kinda junky in Kentucky?

Also there's a difference between disapproval and actually voting for the Democrat. Being in an off-year election is a bit of an advantage for Team D though.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I don't think OK is a 100% fair comparison, since Fallin wasn't running again. With Bevin himself being the candidate, and if the Democrats nominate someone decent, I could see the ancestrally Democratic counties voting like WV-03 did in Manchin vs Morrisey last year. That might not be enough, especially if he holds up in the suburbs, but I seriously doubt eastern Kentucky is going to vote for Bevin like southeast OK voted for Stitt.

[_]

We'll see