Is Venezuela heading to civil war?

[UWS]

Recently, the Venezuelan authorities outrageously blocked aid from coming to the Venezuelan people. Juan Guaido is recognized as interim leader by the United States and their allies and Trump is not ruling out a military intervention against the Maduro regime.

According to you, is Venezuela heading to civil war?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This would require both sides have substantial weaponry.

[Lumine]

Not yet. That would require substantial military defections into the Guaido camp and not just a handful of officer not in key positions of power, and even then it gets tricky accounting for the thousands of pro-Maduro militias and paramilitary groups armed and trained by the government.

Unless something dramatically shifts the current balance of power - like the blocking of the attempt to introduce the aid getting out of control and resulting in large scale military revolts against the regime, which is unlikely - the prospect of a civil war appears dubious, and even then would likely not last very long account for Maduro's advantage in terms of the military.

[Big Abraham]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

[Skye]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

No, the blood is on Maduro's hands. He already has blood on his hands.

Civil war is an unlikely outcome. Never mind that the civilian population doesn't have weapons. As another user pointed out, it would have to be because internal military disputes. And for all the tough talk on behalf of the pro-Maduro military, I don't really see it as a likely possibility.

I have noticed that civil war is an outcome many people from other countries expect, but us Venezuelans really don't. And we hope it doesn't come to that, all we want is that Maduro and his gang leave peacefully.

[dead0man]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

why do you think Trump would replace Maduro with another socialist?  Do you think Trump is competent enough to pull something like that off?  Is this like how the left from a decade ago convinced themselves that Dubya was both a total moron and an evil genius, depending on what they were blaming him for at the time?

[Big Abraham]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

why do you think Trump would replace Maduro with another socialist?  Do you think Trump is competent enough to pull something like that off?  Is this like how the left from a decade ago convinced themselves that Dubya was both a total moron and an evil genius, depending on what they were blaming him for at the time?

Most U.S. regime change operations tend to go poorly; it's not just that I think Trump is incompetent. But that's not even the point. The point is the logic behind using American force to depose a foreign leader, and the U.S. military is now massing at the Venezuelan border. And obviously they seek to replace Maduro, and see his opposition (which is not 'socialist') as the most likely alternative, hence why Trump has already declared Guaidó as the legitimate President of Venezuela

[dead0man]

Most U.S. regime change operations tend to go poorly;

indeed

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wait, what?

[Big Abraham]

Most U.S. regime change operations tend to go poorly;

indeed

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wait, what?

The U.S. delegation is travelling by military aircraft to the Colombian border, being led by Elliott Abrams of all people, one of the most consummate neoconservatives who ever lived.

[dead0man]

so, not "massing" then

[Big Abraham]

so, not "massing" then

mass /mas/
verb, gerund or present participle: massing
assemble or cause to assemble into a mass or as one body.

So yeah, that's exactly what they're doing

Even putting that aside, it is indisputable that military forces are being led by Abrams to the Venezuelan border. Do you think this is for any other reason other than to hasten the deposition of the Venezuelan leadership?

[dead0man]

so, not "massing" then

mass /mas/
verb, gerund or present participle: massing
assemble or cause to assemble into a mass or as one body.

Yep, and a handful of transport planes bringing humanitarian aid is not that.

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what "military forces"?  I suppose you might be right and that is about to happen, but that memo doesn't say anything close to what you seem to think it says.

[Big Abraham]

Yep, and a handful of transport planes bringing humanitarian aid is not that.

To a country whose government they seek to topple. Led by one of the most notorious war criminals in American history. Okay, buddy

what "military forces"?  I suppose you might be right and that is about to happen, but that memo doesn't say anything close to what you seem to think it says.

You don't think military aircraft qualifies being part of "military forces"?

[dead0man]

Yep, and a handful of transport planes bringing humanitarian aid is not that.

To a country whose government they seek to topple. Led by one of the most notorious war criminals in American history. Okay, buddy

You really think there are US Military transport planes, full of things labeled "humanitarian supplies", but are really full of tanks, bazookas and machine guns heading towards Venezuela to "trick" them like bad guys do in movies?  Do you think we live in a cartoon?

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You don't think military aircraft qualifies being part of "military forces"?
[/quote]of course, but a C5/C17 can't do anything but carry stuff.  Sure, some of that "stuff" could be small arms and light weight equipment to assist in a potential coop, but it's NOT going to be full of US Marines, armor and heavy equipment needed to invade.



I should qualify, that you are right to worry due to who sits in the White House....pulling a trick bad guys pull off in movies certainly isn't out of this clown's wheel house.  But getting the DoD to go along with such a thing....quietly, seems rather impossible to me.

[Big Abraham]

You really think there are US Military transport planes, full of things labeled "humanitarian supplies", but are really full of tanks, bazookas and machine guns heading towards Venezuela to "trick" them like bad guys do in movies?  Do you think we live in a cartoon?

No, that'd be obviously naive and stupid. I never claimed they were going to invade; in fact, an all-out invasion is quite unlikely and isn't yet necessary for American interests. Take Libya for instance, no full ground invasion there, and yet the Gaddafi government was toppled all the same. It's quite easy for the military to make this excursion to the border on the pretext of humanitarian aid when in reality this is, like many other things, bringing American red-lines to the borders of Maduro's regime. You don't think Venezuela will see this as a provocation?

[Virginiá]

Talking about the US military 'massing' at the border of a country makes it sound like they are preparing a large invasion force. A blowhard criminal-turned-"special representative" and his attaché hardly counts as such. That is blowing it out of proportion. If they have a few divisions of US troops organizing at the border... sure, but is that what is happening?

You can criticize this trip without that kind of wording.

[Big Abraham]

Talking about the US military 'massing' at the border of a country makes it sound like they are preparing a large invasion force. A blowhard criminal-turned-"special representative" and his attaché hardly counts as such. That is blowing it out of proportion. If they have a few divisions of US troops organizing at the border... sure, but is that what is happening?

You can criticize this trip without that kind of wording.

The wording is accurate. Hell, it's the same one used by pro-American media sources, including this article by NPR and this one by the Washington Examiner.

American military equipment and foreign aid is strategically being massed there and obviously it is intended as a provocation to Maduro's government

[Virginiá]

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vs

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Even the article title itself explicitly says massing 'aid.'

You're undermining your own argument by stubbornly sticking to hyperbole that flies in the face of how people generally accept the term "[country] military massing at the [country] border." The US military is not massing an invasion force at the border of Venezuela. Now trying to force regime change through other measures... sure. But stop acting like the US is a hair away from a full-scale invasion of Venezuela just because it sent Elliott Abrams down there.

[Big Abraham]

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vs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Even the article title itself explicitly says massing 'aid.'

You're undermining your own argument by stubbornly sticking to hyperbole that flies in the face of how people generally accept the term "[country] military massing at the [country] border." The US military is not massing an invasion forces at the border of Venezuela. Now trying to force regime change through other measures... sure. But stop acting like the US is a hair away from a full-scale invasion of Venezuela just because it sent Elliot Abrams down there.

Uh yeah, I never denied that aid was being sent there. However, in the article, even U.S. officials acknowledge that positioning the aid on the border is designed to be a provocation. And we know from the Defense Department's memo that the military is employed in massing aid along the border, which is also made clear from the Examiner article, including potential aircraft carriers, which means that a significant naval and marine presence is now operating in proximity to Colombia and Venezuela and could very well lead to war.

I don't even think a full-scale invasion will happen anyway. It didn't in Libya, nor in Syria, even though we had (and continue to have) a military presence in those two nations. What I do think is that this blatant act of provocation on the part of Abrams and the Trump administration is intended to be the prelude to a military intervention in the country.

[Virginiá]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

[Big Abraham]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

[Big Abraham]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

You refuse to deal with the substance of my argument, and instead slander me on the basis of a supposed link with Russia. Can't you leave that to the Democrats?

[Karpatsky]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

Massing troops =/= massing aid, both in meaning and implication- this is a substantive difference, not merely semantics.

[Lumine]

After the fiasco of the other day - and the spectacle of the military burning down the trucks with humanitarian aid - it seems increasingly unlikely after the weekend.