MO-06 and MO-03 question

[MassBlueDog]

I think either MO-06 or MO-03 could get more competitive in the next 10 or so years (but still staying Republican).  St. Charles is getting a teensey bit more Democratic with each election, and the Kansas City suburbs are already pretty competitive.  It'll take time, but with changing demographics, I think that they'll change.  Am I just crazy?

[lfromnj]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

[MassBlueDog]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

I do know these districts are heavily Republican.  It just seems to me, with the large suburban population in both districts, that they might get bluer over the next five to ten years, and I wanted to know if I wasn't completely crazy.

[lfromnj]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

I do know these districts are heavily Republican.  It just seems to me, with the large suburban population in both districts, that they might get bluer over the next five to ten years, and I wanted to know if I wasn't completely crazy.

thats the TREND MAP not the percentage map.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Democrats continue their suburban trend and somehow start winning Clay, Platte, Jefferson, and St Charles. Odds are Republican will make MO-05 a D voting sink strictly within I-470 and sacrifice MO-02 to Dems in St Louis area to prevent any surprises. 

[lfromnj]

If Democrats continue their suburban trend and somehow start winning Clay, Platte, Jefferson, and St Charles. Odds are Republican will make MO-05 a D voting sink strictly within I-470 and sacrifice MO-02 to Dems in St Louis area to prevent any surprises. 

yeah im sure Republicans will go 5-3 in a state trump won by 20 points with one district thats already Clinton+60 making it an effective D sink and making the rest of the state have an R+14 PVI.

[Thunder98]

2016 MO Prez Trend Map



2018 Sen MO trend map

[lfromnj]

2016 MO Prez Trend Map



2018 Sen MO trend map

tbf the MO trend map was a bit due to AKins

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Democrats continue their suburban trend and somehow start winning Clay, Platte, Jefferson, and St Charles. Odds are Republican will make MO-05 a D voting sink strictly within I-470 and sacrifice MO-02 to Dems in St Louis area to prevent any surprises. 

yeah im sure Republicans will go 5-3 in a state trump won by 20 points with one district thats already Clinton+60 making it an effective D sink and making the rest of the state have an R+14 PVI.

The geography of the state benefits the Democrats. The only saving the Democrats in Missouri is that KCMO and St Louis are on opposite sides of the state.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Democrats continue their suburban trend and somehow start winning Clay, Platte, Jefferson, and St Charles. Odds are Republican will make MO-05 a D voting sink strictly within I-470 and sacrifice MO-02 to Dems in St Louis area to prevent any surprises. 

yeah im sure Republicans will go 5-3 in a state trump won by 20 points with one district thats already Clinton+60 making it an effective D sink and making the rest of the state have an R+14 PVI.

The geography of the state benefits the Democrats. The only saving the Democrats in Missouri is that KCMO and St Louis are on opposite sides of the state.

Republicans will never let the current MO-02 stand come redistricting. If 2020 confirms the areas leftward swing then expect Republicans to split up the burbs between two or more redneck seats

That was very stupid of them. I think they will move MO-1 out west and have MO-2 and MO-3 split the suburbs along I-64 or bring MO-8 into St louis.