CA-SEN 2018 results: Interesting urban-rural Democratic divide

[I’m not Stu]

Feinstein won most of the urban counties, but de Leon won white rural Democratic counties like Humboldt, Mendocino, and Alpine. Are rural white California Democrats more liberal than urban ones?
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Kevin de Leon (D)

[Politician]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

See also the Bernie vs Hillary 2016 map.

[junior chįmp]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

They voted DeLeon because hes not Feinstein. Voters dont even know the policies of the people they vote for but they do know Feinstein and don't like her even though DeLeon was more leftist.

You could probably bamboozle the dumb voters of this country by just changing your name every couple years. They'll just think its someone new

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

I'm pretty sure Humboldt county figured out that de Leon is the more left candidate.

[Bidenworth2020]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

They voted DeLeon because hes not Feinstein. Voters dont even know the policies of the people they vote for but they do know Feinstein and don't like her even though DeLeon was more leftist.

You could probably bamboozle the dumb voters of this country by just changing your name every couple years. They'll just think its someone new

Hmm... you sure. My 3rd cousin once removed was a DeLeon voter, and he carefully read the platforms of both and made pros and cons lists, and factored in Feinstein and DeLeon's existing records. All anecdotes are universal, so this must be true for all DeLeon voters.

[I’m not Stu]

Humboldt and Mendocino are very liberal Democratic counties. It was obvious de Leon would win them before the election took place.

[smoltchanov]

Humboldt and Mendocino are very liberal Democratic counties. It was obvious de Leon would win them before the election took place.

Well, San Francisco, Alameda, Marin and San Mateo are no less liberal Democratic, but de Leon didn't win them. Why?

[I’m not Stu]

Humboldt and Mendocino are very liberal Democratic counties. It was obvious de Leon would win them before the election took place.

Well, San Francisco, Alameda, Marin and San Mateo are no less liberal Democratic, but de Leon didn't win them. Why?

Marin has a large population of white collar businesspeople. The other counties have large minority populations who didn’t vote for Bernie Sanders. Look at the Newsom-de Leon counties (except Imperial).

[junior chįmp]

No, they're anti-establishment and anti-corporatist (ie Feinstein) and De Leon worked perfectly for them.

They voted DeLeon because hes not Feinstein. Voters dont even know the policies of the people they vote for but they do know Feinstein and don't like her even though DeLeon was more leftist.

You could probably bamboozle the dumb voters of this country by just changing your name every couple years. They'll just think its someone new

Hmm... you sure. My 3rd cousin once removed was a DeLeon voter, and he carefully read the platforms of both and made pros and cons lists, and factored in Feinstein and DeLeon's existing records. All anecdotes are universal, so this must be true for all DeLeon voters.

My weight lifting Scientologist sister in law doesnt even live in CA and she voted for DeLeon after comparing the two. CRAZY~

[Tintrlvr]

De Leon's relative performance in Mendocino and Humboldt wasn't that special. You'd expect a Republican who managed to lose by just 29 points in San Francisco (Clinton+75), as de Leon did, to win Mendocino (Clinton+30) by an even wider margin than de Leon did on a uniform swing. If anything, de Leon overperformed in San Francisco relative to Mendocino given that he was winning pretty much every Republican voter.

In fact, the result in Marin (Feinstein+31, Clinton+62) was exactly the same swing as the result in Mendocino (de Leon+1, Clinton+30).

So, no, Mendocino was not more any more favorable to de Leon than Marin than it is to a Republican candidate who does well state-wide.

Humboldt was slightly better for this case because it swing marginally more to de Leon than Marin/Mendocino did (de Leon+11, Clinton+25), but only by a few points, not enough to really be meaningful.

And Alpine (de Leon+2, Clinton+19) swung much less than Marin did.

[DrScholl]

Humboldt and Mendocino are the most liberal of the rural or semi-rural counties in the state. The Green Party received some of it's best percentages there in statewide races. Alpine is similar to Summit County, Utah in that it has become liberal because of ski resorts. All the rest of the counties voted for de Leon just because he wasn't Feinstein probably with the exception of Imperial which tends to lean towards candidates with the Hispanic surname when it comes to Democratic vs. Democratic races.

[I’m not Stu]

Are Democrats in GOP counties like Trinity and Del Norte similar to the ones in Humboldt? Bernie Sanders won them.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Humboldt and Mendocino are the most liberal of the rural or semi-rural counties in the state. The Green Party received some of it's best percentages there in statewide races. Alpine is similar to Summit County, Utah in that it has become liberal because of ski resorts. All the rest of the counties voted for de Leon just because he wasn't Feinstein probably with the exception of Imperial which tends to lean towards candidates with the Hispanic surname when it comes to Democratic vs. Democratic races.

[Mr. Smith]

Humboldt and Mendocino are very liberal Democratic counties. It was obvious de Leon would win them before the election took place.

Well, San Francisco, Alameda, Marin and San Mateo are no less liberal Democratic, but de Leon didn't win them. Why?

DiFi had the home-turf advantage [especially prominent in SF] and name-rec, and since she didn't offend the average low-info voter, she was pretty much a shoo-in (which explains why Yolo/Santa Cruz went for her).

As for Marin, that's Rockefeller Republican turf with all the limosine liberal values attached, de Leon would be anathema there anyway.

And I suspect Fremont/Hayward f*(ked over all the votes of Oakland and Berkeley again regarding Alameda.

The real point of interest is the lack of Sanchez/Feinstein votes.

[Sir Mohamed]

Many GOPers voted for deLeon due to their despise Feinstein. I myself know handful, including my neighbor who likes Trump. He voted for deLeon.

Dems would do the same with someone like McConnell and vote for Tea Partier first.

[Oryxslayer]

Ignore all idea of policy. This vote was pure partisanship - not any policy of De Leon caused him to hav this coalition.

- Are you a Republican? If so, you vote De Leon since you hate Feinstein's behavior during Kavanaugh. Or you are smart and leave the line blank (several hundred thousand did) because they are both Dem.
- Are you a Hispanic? If so, you vote De Leon because last name.
- Are you a rabid progressive? This is the only case where ideology matters - you live in a place like Berkeley or Humboldt and you voted for De Leon.

-Are you a democrat who doesn't qualify for the above? If so, you voted Feinstein.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

- Are you a Republican? If so, you vote De Leon since you hate Feinstein's behavior during Kavanaugh. Or you are smart and leave the line blank (several hundred thousand did) because they are both Dem.

Thanks for reminding me. I still need to finish my maps of abstention rates in the senate races for 2016 and 2018. I think I have all the data...

[I’m not Stu]

Did de Leon win Santee (in Duncan Hunter Jr. country)?

[Scrumtrulescent]

Did de Leon win Santee (in Duncan Hunter Jr. country)?

Yep,  52.6% - 47.4%