Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/23/dnc-debate-1508516?fbclid=IwAR391sM9NwxHo4F3fnrPprzNtfCQFUPb4C-ir1cGUraCjWZIDmRyygiyiDI

"Candidates will need to clear 3 percent in four DNC-approved polls, up from the 2 percent required to qualify for the September and October debates. But the committee also created an additional early-state path to qualify: garnering 5 percent in two approved polls conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina."

A virtual death knell for all campaigns not named Biden, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Harris, Beto, or Yang.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the 5th debate, the donor count is *way* easier than the polling requirement this time. I'd really doubt anyone who can meet the polling requirement has trouble with the polling. For the 3rd and 4th debates, I think Klobuchar was the only candidate to reach the polling requirement before the donor requirement.

[The Mikado]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/23/dnc-debate-1508516?fbclid=IwAR391sM9NwxHo4F3fnrPprzNtfCQFUPb4C-ir1cGUraCjWZIDmRyygiyiDI

"Candidates will need to clear 3 percent in four DNC-approved polls, up from the 2 percent required to qualify for the September and October debates. But the committee also created an additional early-state path to qualify: garnering 5 percent in two approved polls conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina."

A virtual death knell for most campaigns.

"Most" in a numerical sense, maybe, but only because most of those campaigns couldn't meet the more lenient threshold that was already up. Out of the ten who were on stage in September, only Castro and maybe Klobuchar will have difficulty with this new threshold.

Fully expect:

Biden
Warren
Sanders
Buttigieg
Harris
Yang
Booker (assuming he stays in)
O'Rourke

To all be there in November. Maybe Klobuchar too, if lucky.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/23/dnc-debate-1508516?fbclid=IwAR391sM9NwxHo4F3fnrPprzNtfCQFUPb4C-ir1cGUraCjWZIDmRyygiyiDI

"Candidates will need to clear 3 percent in four DNC-approved polls, up from the 2 percent required to qualify for the September and October debates. But the committee also created an additional early-state path to qualify: garnering 5 percent in two approved polls conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina."


A virtual death knell for most campaigns.

"Most" in a numerical sense, maybe, but only because most of those campaigns couldn't meet the more lenient threshold that was already up. Out of the ten who were on stage in September, only Castro and maybe Klobuchar will have difficulty with this new threshold.

I can't see Booker or Castro making it.

[The Mikado]

Booker will almost certainly make it if he stays in. In the post-9/13 timeframe for qualification, he's already gotten 2 out of the four polls he needs.

[SN2903]

I have been very disappointed with Tulsi lately and her whole Trump is paid off by Saudi rhetoric but I still want to see her in the October debate because she's the only dem that doesn't seem to be obsessed with Trump. Well, her and Yang.

[Dr. Arch]

They should go for 5%. These big stage debates have run their course.

[IceSpear]

I have been very disappointed with Tulsi lately and her whole Trump is paid off by Saudi rhetoric but I still want to see her in the October debate because she's the only dem that doesn't seem to be obsessed with Trump. Well, her and Yang.

If only Gabbard was as popular among Democrats as she is among Trumpists she'd be guaranteed to make every debate.

[John Dule]

Yang will remain.

[Crumpets]

#DNCRigged
#SestakMediaBlackout

[The Other Castro]

Oooo this is gonna be a fun chart.

[SN2903]

Yang will remain.

Probably

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yang will remain.

Probably

Yes, I think Yang, Booker, and O'Rourke make it. Steyer and Klobuchar have some chance. Not looking good for Castro and Gabbard.

[SN2903]

Yang will remain.

Probably

Yes, I think Yang, Booker, and O'Rourke make it. Steyer and Klobuchar have some chance. Not looking good for Castro and Gabbard.

I don't think Tulsi will make it or Steyer. I think Booker and Klobuchar may possibly make it. O' Rourke I don't think so.

[Mr. Morden]

Yang will remain.

Probably

Yes, I think Yang, Booker, and O'Rourke make it. Steyer and Klobuchar have some chance. Not looking good for Castro and Gabbard.

I wouldn't totally rule out the possibility of Gabbard making it, though it would presumably take two early state polls at 5%.  In three of the last five NH polls, Gabbard has received either 5 or 6% support.  Of course, none of those were qualifying polls, but if that is in fact indicative of where she is in NH now (and that's a big if), then she could actually get in the Nov. debate with two qualifying polls of NH.  (Presumably, one of those would have to be tomorrow's Monmouth poll of NH, so we'll know soon if she has a shot.)

So I guess there's a very remote chance of more than 10 candidates qualifying for November, if Gabbard and Steyer both made it in, plus everyone who made the September debate minus Castro.

But that's unlikely.  More likely is that only about 8 candidates qualify for November.

[Tender Branson]

I would say there's a 70-80% chance that Gabbard will get her 4th qualifying poll today (Monmouth), because she has been "incredibly strong" there in recent polls.

It would really surprise me if she only gets 1% in this one.

On the other hand, Monmouth was always among her worse polls, so that's why the 20-30% doubt remains ...

[Gustaf]

Wouldn't Gabbard have a chance of making it into the next debate and then raising her profile enough to also make the November one?

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Where's @Castro2020 at with his chart for November?? I need it!

[The Other Castro]

Where's @Castro2020 at with his chart for November?? I need it!

Just waiting until after the Monmouth NH poll.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Where's @Castro2020 at with his chart for November?? I need it!

Just waiting until after the Monmouth NH poll.

Don't even know if I'm more hype for your chart or that poll

[Gass3268]

Gabbard qualified for October.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Where's @Castro2020 at with his chart for November?? I need it!

Just waiting until after the Monmouth NH poll.

Ugh, ugly numbers for Kamala. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gabbard qualified for October.

Dammit we should be shrinking the debate stage, not expanding it. They need to keep Warren and Biden on the same stage. Everyone else is moot at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Gabbard qualified for October.

So, what kind of debate will we get ?

One 12er ?

Two 6ers with 2-3 hours on following days ?

Two 6ers with 1.5 hours on the same day ?

[AngryBudgie]

Gabbard qualified for October.

So, what kind of debate will we get ?

One 12er ?

Two 6ers with 2-3 hours on following days ?

Two 6ers with 1.5 hours on the same day ?

Probably a two nighter again. Which probably hurts ratings and makes a break out for anyone unlikely.