Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[eric82oslo]

I only wish either one more or like four fewer had qualified. Debates with ten candidates on stage are the pits.

They are tiresome indeed and unfair for most of the candidates except the top two or three on stage.

[Gass3268]

When will ABC be holding their hour long debate lottery show? It's not a Democratic debate without it. /s

[Mr. Morden]

The DNC has notified the ten campaigns that they've qualified, and ABC has released some more debate details:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/final-lineup-set-sole-night-abc-democratic-primary/story

The DNC formally notified the campaigns Thursday that their candidates had qualified for the debate. The podium order -- where the candidates will stand on the debate stage in relation to each other -- will be announced at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC News Live's "The Briefing Room."

The debate format will be one minute and 15 seconds for direct responses to questions and 45 seconds for responses and rebuttals. Candidates will have the opportunity to deliver opening statements, but there will be no closing statements.

As previously announced, ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos, ABC News "World News Tonight" Anchor and Managing Editor David Muir, ABC News Correspondent Linsey Davis and Univision Anchor Jorge Ramos will moderate.

The debate will be held at Texas Southern University, a public, historically black university, and will air from 8 to 11 p.m. ET across ABC, Univision with a Spanish translation, locally on KTRK-TV and on ABC News Live. The streaming channel is available on the ABCNews.com, Good Morning America and FiveThirtyEight websites and mobile phone apps, as well as Hulu Live, The Roku Channel, Facebook Watch, AppleTV, Amazon Fire TV, YouTube, Apple News, and Twitter.

A 3 hour debate.  That's got to be the longest one then, right?

[eric82oslo]

A 3 hour debate.  That's got to be the longest one then, right?

Nice. Yeah it is, but just slightly. The CNN debate was about 2 hours and 40 minutes long.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Interesting that (according to Politico), Warren will be in the middle with Biden, not Bernie. I wonder what polls they used to determine that.

[The Other Castro]

Interesting that (according to Politico), Warren will be in the middle with Biden, not Bernie. I wonder what polls they used to determine that.

The 10 most recent qualifying polls, according to ABC.

[rhg2052]

Not that any of them are going to qualify for October, but do we have any indication of current donor numbers for the candidates that didn't hit the donor threshold?

[Alben Barkley]

Where do I get my paycheck for perfectly predicting exactly 10 candidates would qualify, and exactly who those 10 are?

was there a PredictIt bet I missed?

[The Other Castro]

October debates will be October 15 and 16, polling deadline 11:59 PM October 1.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/EwallWice/status/1167847469910282242

[Mr. Morden]

October 15th is a Tuesday and October 16th is a Wednesday.  With this timing, they avoid going up against either the NFL or the World Series.  I guess we don't know yet what TV network will be airing this, though my *guess* is that it's one of the cable news networks, as opposed to a broadcast network.  The broadcast networks are reluctant to preempt their regular fall TV programming, and so they'd be more likely to only do this if it was on a weekend.  (I guess it could also be PBS.  In fact, I'll offer a wild guess that it'll be PBS, since CNN and MSNBC have already done one.)

[Shadows]

Could be PBS but CBS has also not gotten a debate & they'd probably take it.

Gabbard & Steyer get 1 full month to qualify. Hopefully, the DNC raises the polling criteria to atleast 4%, maybe even 5% for the 5th & 6th debate. The Nov & Dec debates will be just before Iowa & this non-sense of 10 candidates has to end. There should be 4-5 candidates or at maximum 6-7 in Nov.

With a 4% criteria, Klobuchar & Castro will surely be out unless they do amazing in the 3rd & 4th debate. By current polling trends, Booker & Yang will also find it hard to get 4% in 4 qualifying polls. Beto is now pushing up to 3-4% in many polls so he has a chance. The Top 5 will definitely get through. So it will be 5-8 people (provided nothing major happens in Debate 3/4).

If it goes to 5%, even Buttigieg has to push to get it. Maybe Beto gets lucky & goes to 5%. I don't see Booker or Yang making it. That would make the field between 4 to 6 (depending on Debate 3 & 4).

DNC has to increase the polling Criteria significantly. This is diluting the process & this clusterf**k 10 person debate with people having no chance attacking Biden (like Gillibrand in Debate 2) is helpful for people like Biden who have a huge advantage in polling!

[SN2903]

Wikipedia is showing Gabbard has 3 qualifying polls now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#cite_note-castro-90

[The Other Castro]

Anyone can edit Wikipedia with false information.

[SN2903]

Anyone can edit Wikipedia with false information.

None of it has been wrong so far on the polls and donors: who has qualified.

[The Other Castro]

Anyone can edit Wikipedia with false information.

None of it has been wrong so far on the polls and donors: who has qualified.

Yes it has, it just usually gets fixed pretty quickly once the mistakes are discovered. Like right now, for instance. Gabbard has two polls, not three.

[SN2903]

Anyone can edit Wikipedia with false information.

None of it has been wrong so far on the polls and donors: who has qualified.

Yes it has, it just usually gets fixed pretty quickly once the mistakes are discovered. Like right now, for instance. Gabbard has two polls, not three.

Still a very high chance she gets 2 more in the next 4 weeks.

[Cassandra]

Anyone can edit Wikipedia with false information.

None of it has been wrong so far on the polls and donors: who has qualified.

Yes it has, it just usually gets fixed pretty quickly once the mistakes are discovered. Like right now, for instance. Gabbard has two polls, not three.

Still a very high chance she gets 2 more in the next 4 weeks.

Why is that?

[ElectionsGuy]

Debates with 10 people would be fine if they would hold the overall length of the debate to a standard of time per person (for example 15 min per person x 10 people = 2 hrs 30 min whereas 15 min per person x 6 people = 1 hrs 30 min) and also make sure everybody gets to speak on every topic brought up. However, with constant people talking over each other (and invoking names, which creates tangents) this is very difficult to control.

I hope the October debates do have either Tulsi and/or Steyer just because the networks probably won't make the debates much shorter even if it's only 5-6 candidates per night.

[The Other Castro]

Steyer will very likely qualify tomorrow, CBS/YouGov has IA, NH, SC, and possibly NV polls coming out.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer will very likely qualify tomorrow, CBS/YouGov has IA, NH, SC, and possibly NV polls coming out.

As a reminder, Gabbard already got 2% in their last NH poll and Steyer already got 2% in their last Iowa poll, so neither of them can double dip in those particular states.

[LeBron]

Steyer will very likely qualify tomorrow, CBS/YouGov has IA, NH, SC, and possibly NV polls coming out.

This is the first time in a month that we're getting any early state polls that count. These debate rules suck.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Steyer will very likely qualify tomorrow, CBS/YouGov has IA, NH, SC, and possibly NV polls coming out.

This is the first time in a month that we're getting any early state polls that count. These debate rules suck.

I guess they wanted to wait until after Labor day for more reliable polling, which means they're too late for the 3rd debate. I thought pollsters would mostly wait until after the debate at this point.

[LeBron]

Steyer will very likely qualify tomorrow, CBS/YouGov has IA, NH, SC, and possibly NV polls coming out.

This is the first time in a month that we're getting any early state polls that count. These debate rules suck.

I guess they wanted to wait until after Labor day for more reliable polling, which means they're too late for the 3rd debate. I thought pollsters would mostly wait until after the debate at this point.

I guess that's a possibility, but I've also heard some of these pollsters aren't getting the funding they need from their partners to conduct them.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like ABC will also be releasing a national poll shortly:

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1170449159855337472

Neither Gabbard nor Steyer got 2% in their last one, so both of them could add to their total # of qualifying polls if they get 2% in this one.