Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Tender Branson]

It is likely that there will be a final rush of qualifying polls over the next week or two and the DNC will likely break the tie for 20th by using the candidate with the most 1% results ...

[Coldstream]

If there are 21 candidates they may as well let them all in, the GOP had an 11 candidate debate in 2015 - and they’ll be heavily winnowed by the September one anyway.

[scutosaurus]

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1135890100271898625

January 2019: Bennet will never run for president!
May 2019: Bennet won't be in the debates!
June 2019: Bennet won't win the debates!

And so on...

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1136437305558917120?s=21

Relevant for the July debate as well.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1136437305558917120?s=21

Relevant for the July debate as well.

The saddest-yet-funniest part of this primary by far is that Marianne Williamson hit 65,000 donors like a full month before Gillibrand (probably) will.

[The Other Castro]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

[Tender Branson]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

(...)

WTF ?

Wasn't the WaPo poll open-ended ? Which means this is actually a better indicator of support for a candidate, because names are not read to respondents and they have to volunteer a name on their own ... !

[The Other Castro]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

(...)

WTF ?

Wasn't the WaPo poll open-ended ? Which means this is actually a better indicator of support for a candidate, because names are not read to respondents and they have to volunteer a name on their own ... !

Correct, WTF indeed. This is pretty ridiculous of the DNC to do this (especially because, at the same time, they are being lenient with de Blasio and counting his Reuters poll)

[Tender Branson]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

(...)

WTF ?

Wasn't the WaPo poll open-ended ? Which means this is actually a better indicator of support for a candidate, because names are not read to respondents and they have to volunteer a name on their own ... !

Correct, WTF indeed. This is pretty ridiculous of the DNC to do this (especially because, at the same time, they are being lenient with de Blasio and counting his Reuters poll)

If true, the DNC is disgusting (or the ones who set this new criteria are).

Hopefully, a couple more polls will come out next week with Bullock at 1-2% support.

[The Other Castro]

Apparently the DNC told Bullock's team a while ago that the poll wouldn't count, but waited until today to reveal that to Politico. This is the Bullock campaign's statement:

[PaperKooper]

Bullock noooo!

[7,052,770]

Just let everyone in the first debate. Problem solved

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

#BullockBollocked

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I honestly missed De Blasio's announcement until third thread.

[Mr. Smith]

Bullock as the Lawrence Lessig is definitely not what I had expected.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Bullock as the Lawrence Lessig is definitely not what I had expected.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at the DNC rigging it against candidates who didn't have a chance anyways.

[eric82oslo]

Bullock needs to be in the debate in my humble opinion.
Republicans will laugh all the way to the bank if he's excluded.

[Sestak]

Yeah I don't fycking get this choice.

[Mr. Morden]

Now that we know the ABC/WaPo polls don't count, I think this is where we're at:

Biden 9
Booker 9
Buttigieg 9
Harris 9
Klobuchar 9
O’Rourke 9
Sanders 9
Warren 9
Yang 8
Castro 7
Gillibrand 6
Ryan 6
Hickenlooper 5
Inslee 5
Gabbard 4
Williamson 3 (but also has 65,000 donors, so is in good shape on tiebreakers)
Bennet 3
de Blasio 3
Delaney 3
Swalwell 3
———qualification line———
Bullock 2
Kerry 1
Messam 1

Bold = in bad shape on tiebreakers, if it comes to that.

New Selzer poll in Iowa tomorrow, but Bullock already got 1% in the last one, so getting 1% again in that poll doesn't help him.  If he gets 2% or more though, then it would help him on tiebreakers if he gets a third poll in the next few days.

Bennet or Delaney getting 2% in tomorrow's poll would also help them on tiebreakers, while de Blasio or Swalwell getting 1% or more would help them on tiebreakers.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a look at the final polls that might come out (and they have to come out over the next 5 days (Saturday-Wednesday) in order to be used for the June debate qualification. On Thursday, the DNC will already decide which candidates have qualified and who are going to miss the first debate):

A) polls that are used as criteria: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN (national), The Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio/Marist, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

B) the outlook:

* The new Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll will be released today

* NPR/Marist might release a new one (they did yesterday, on abortion etc.)

* FOX, Monmouth and Quinnipiac might, because their last polls are a month ago

* the red ones are disqualified by the DNC (ABC/WaPo) or have already released polls less than a month ago

* the brown ones are unlikely to release a new poll in the coming days, or at least it hasn't been announced that they will

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

The first 16 are basically a lock for the first debate at this point.

[Alben Barkley]

I still cannot believe MARIANNE WILLIAMSON is more assured to have a spot on the debate stage than a New York Senator, the NYC Mayor, a Montana Governor, a Colorado Governor AND Senator... What even is this timeline?

[Beet]

It's too bad Gravel won't qualify for the debates. It'd be nice to have a voice against SESTA/FOSTA, among other things.

[Saint Milei]

Amazing how trash Gillibrand is at running a presidential campaign. Also surprised Gabbard will qualify