Why do some people act like Wisconsin is the next Indiana?

[Scottholes 2.0]

It seems like Atlas R's are really convinced that they will have a solid lock on Wisconsin in the near future, that WI will be Lean R in 2020. It is my opinion, based on recent election data, that neither party in WI is safe as of right now. It is a closely divided state, and it is hard to predict which way WI will shift based on these two trends for each party:


An advantage for Dems is:
- The Milwaukee (Milwaukee County and WOW) and Madison Metros are getting more D, and are growing.
- The rural areas are shrinking in the midst of their growing Republican margins.
- The Republican vote share in the Fox Valley region has mostly stagnated.

An advantage for Reps is:
- W0W is still very Republican despite slowly trending D.
- Wisconsin's rapidly R-trending shrinking rural areas are still large enough to cancel out increasing D margins in urban/suburban areas in the short-term.
- As blue-collar, WWC voters, of which WI has an abundance, shift towards the Republican Party, Wisconsin remains competitive.
- They've left a legacy of voter suppression and gerrymandering to ascertain that they have a hold on the State Legislature.

An advantage for both parties:
- WI has a large chunk of swing voters who are open to alternating between the two parties depending on the candidate and political climate.

Another thing that annoys me: People are seriously convinced that Pennsylvania can't possibly vote to the right of Wisconsin in 2020, even though WI voted to the left of Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2012. Also, there were fewer third party voters in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin.

Moreover, Tammy Baldwin's U.S. Senate race illustrates that Milwaukee and Madison's voting power has grown considerably over the years. Below is Russ Feingold's 2004 map (turnout rate was 72.4% [higher than the 2018 WI U.S. Senate race], and WI is known to lean more D when turnout is high) to demonstrate. He won by the same margin as Tammy Baldwin:



Baldwin's map:




The maps below also not only show that Wisconsin really hasn't gotten that much redder since 2004, but the voting power of Milwaukee and Dane has increased. Like Kerry when he carried WI in 2004, Evers won 50% of the vote in Wisconsin. However, Walker won fewer counties than Bush (who lost the state) in 2004, yet managed to get a slightly lower percentage of votes than Bush:

Wisconsin's 2004 U.S. presidential election results:



Wisconsin's 2018 Gubernatorial Election:



The scary math for Wisconsin Dems is that if the driftless area continues to trend R as Northern Wisconsin gets more Republican, then R's will have a slight advantage. The bottom line is that both Wisconsin Dems and Reps have some good yet scary electoral math going forward, hence why Wisconsin SHOULD and ALWAYS be rates a tossup. It is NEITHER lean R nor lean D, but I've seen people overestimate Wisconsin's "R lean" more than they should. Voter suppression and gerrymandering also sway WI's electoral lean towards Republicans - that is the most important fact to keep in mind! Just my two cents. I still think Michigan (which is more D than WI) and Wisconsin will flip before Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact Dubya and Trump did so well. It is the bellweather of the next election

[King of Kensington]

Another thing that annoys me: People are seriously convinced that Pennsylvania can't possibly vote to the right of Wisconsin in 2020, even though WI voted to the left of Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2012. Also, there were fewer third party voters in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin.

Cuz Pennsylvania is "Northeastern"?  Or something.

[R.P. McM]

I agree with basically all of this. However:

An advantage for Dems is:
- The Milwaukee (Milwaukee County and WOW) and Madison Metros are getting more D, and are growing.

I think it's important to emphasize that the rate of growth ain't exactly brisk. The WOW counties are expanding at about half the national rate, and Milwaukee is more or less stagnant. Dane is the exception, but it anchors a much smaller metropolitan area. I've read similar posts about PA, so I just want to point out that when we're discussing growth rates of ~2%, the status quo has a pretty long shelf life.     

[Scottholes 2.0]

Another thing that annoys me: People are seriously convinced that Pennsylvania can't possibly vote to the right of Wisconsin in 2020, even though WI voted to the left of Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2012. Also, there were fewer third party voters in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin.

Cuz Pennsylvania is "Northeastern"?  Or something.

I am aware that PA is Northeasten. What's your point? PA is often compared to WI and MI because it has an even PVI like those two midwestern states and helped propel Trump to victory in '16.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I agree with basically all of this. However:

An advantage for Dems is:
- The Milwaukee (Milwaukee County and WOW) and Madison Metros are getting more D, and are growing.

I think it's important to emphasize that the rate of growth ain't exactly brisk. The WOW counties are expanding at about half the national rate, and Milwaukee is more or less stagnant. Dane is the exception, but it anchors a much smaller metropolitan area. I've read similar posts about PA, so I just want to point out that when we're discussing growth rates of ~2%, the status quo has a pretty long shelf life.     

You have a valid point. I will keep this in mind!

[Xing]

Because people jump to conclusions based on single elections. 2018 should at least show that Wisconsin is not on the verge of becoming a solid red state. Wisconsin did trend Republican in 2016. Whether or not it continues to trend Republican, remain a purple state, or start to trend the other way is really yet to be seen. My guess is that it will stay purple for the foreseeable future, but it depends on many different factors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Midwestern states vote GOP for Gov Walker, Synder, Pawlenty and Rauner all got elected because they werent seen as Boehner or Ryan GOPers.

Trump was seen like this at first until he corrupted the election

[jamestroll]

I am inclined to believe that Wisconsin will emerge as a lean Republican state when the dust settles in the next few cycles. WOW is budging somewhat but just not enough.

Consider this: Hamilton County in Indiana was far close to the state average in Indiana compared to any of the WOW counties in Wisconsin. In the other land of deplorables in the Midwest, Missouri, the suburban counties of St. Charles, Platte and Clay counties have been far more Democratic friendly.

The driftless region will only become more clearly Republican. Mitigated somewhat by population loss in rural Wisconsin and a very slight D trend in WOW and growth in the Madison will probably balance it out as a competitive Lean R state.

One correlation that is rather strong is how supportive a suburban area is of mass transportation and how quickly it trends to the Democrats. Does WOW has any mass transit system at all? in Missouri, St. Charles has a very limited transit system in its county seat and has been strongly Republican. On the other side of the state the bus system in both Platte and Clay counties are modest but at least they let the bus system in. And of course those counties are far more likely to vote Democratic compared to St. Charles County.

[jamestroll]

So in both the St. Louis and Chicago suburbs I have noticed a strong correlation with the amount of rabbits you see outside and how GOP friendly an area is. I wonder if that is true in other Midwestern suburbs as well.

Is WOW knee deep in rabbits?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Due to fact Dubya and Trump did so well. It is the bellweather of the next election

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

So in both the St. Louis and Chicago suburbs I have noticed a strong correlation with the amount of rabbits you see outside and how GOP friendly an area is. I wonder if that is true in other Midwestern suburbs as well.

Is WOW knee deep in rabbits?

This is an interesting hypothesis. From 2011–2013, a family of rabbits moved into our yard, returning each spring to mate and suckle their offspring. These dates obviously correspond to the 2011 election of Pete Buttigieg as Mayor of South Bend, the success of Joe Donnelly's 2012 senatorial campaign, Glenda Ritz's victory over Tony Bennet, and John Gregg's tantalizingly-close loss to Mike Pence in the 2012 gubernatorial campaign. In 2014, my dog killed one of the rabbits at the start of their mating season, ending the line. Since then, no Democrat has won statewide in Indiana and districts once rated as "tossup" are now solidly Republican. I conclude that there is a direct inverse relationship between the rabbit population of the Indianapolis suburbs and the electoral viability of Democratic candidates.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So in both the St. Louis and Chicago suburbs I have noticed a strong correlation with the amount of rabbits you see outside and how GOP friendly an area is. I wonder if that is true in other Midwestern suburbs as well.

Is WOW knee deep in rabbits?

This is an interesting hypothesis. From 2011–2013, a family of rabbits moved into our yard, returning each spring to mate and suckle their offspring. These dates obviously correspond to the 2011 election of Pete Buttigieg as Mayor of South Bend, the success of Joe Donnelly's 2012 senatorial campaign, Glenda Ritz's victory over Tony Bennet, and John Gregg's tantalizingly-close loss to Mike Pence in the 2012 gubernatorial campaign. In 2014, my dog killed one of the rabbits at the start of their mating season, ending the line. Since then, no Democrat has won statewide in Indiana and districts once rated as "tossup" are now solidly Republican. I conclude that there is a direct inverse relationship between the rabbit population of the Indianapolis suburbs and the electoral viability of Democratic candidates.

I start to think Watership Down was conceived as an elaborate parabole explaining the political dynamics of the United States. When General Woundwort, symbolizing right-wing Republicans, is defeated and the good bunnies (symbolizing Democrats) are free to live in peace from fear, everything's just hunky dory

[Scottholes 2.0]

I am inclined to believe that Wisconsin will emerge as a lean Republican state when the dust settles in the next few cycles. WOW is budging somewhat but just not enough.

Consider this: Hamilton County in Indiana was far close to the state average in Indiana compared to any of the WOW counties in Wisconsin. In the other land of deplorables in the Midwest, Missouri, the suburban counties of St. Charles, Platte and Clay counties have been far more Democratic friendly.

The driftless region will only become more clearly Republican. Mitigated somewhat by population loss in rural Wisconsin and a very slight D trend in WOW and growth in the Madison will probably balance it out as a competitive Lean R state.

One correlation that is rather strong is how supportive a suburban area is of mass transportation and how quickly it trends to the Democrats. Does WOW has any mass transit system at all? in Missouri, St. Charles has a very limited transit system in its county seat and has been strongly Republican. On the other side of the state the bus system in both Platte and Clay counties are modest but at least they let the bus system in. And of course those counties are far more likely to vote Democratic compared to St. Charles County.

This is by far the most rational explanation as to how WI could become a Lean R state. Very well-written! No, WOW is not supportive of a mass transportation system, nor do they even favor affordable housing projects. However, Evers is trying to change that through the proposed Milwaukee railway system. Otherwise, it sucks that WI's demographics could make it trend R. I suppose I'll enjoy its swing status as for right now.

[Scottholes 2.0]

You bring up a good point, re: Baldwin 2018 being the same margin as Feingold 2018 despite Feingold’s map appearing much more aesthetically blue. I guess Dems can take some solace in that as the Driftless region continues to drift more and more R. I think it will remain a swing state for some time, but it is much whiter and less educated than the nation as a whole and we all know which party those demograhics are heading towards

True.

[jamestroll]

I am inclined to believe that Wisconsin will emerge as a lean Republican state when the dust settles in the next few cycles. WOW is budging somewhat but just not enough.

Consider this: Hamilton County in Indiana was far close to the state average in Indiana compared to any of the WOW counties in Wisconsin. In the other land of deplorables in the Midwest, Missouri, the suburban counties of St. Charles, Platte and Clay counties have been far more Democratic friendly.

The driftless region will only become more clearly Republican. Mitigated somewhat by population loss in rural Wisconsin and a very slight D trend in WOW and growth in the Madison will probably balance it out as a competitive Lean R state.

One correlation that is rather strong is how supportive a suburban area is of mass transportation and how quickly it trends to the Democrats. Does WOW has any mass transit system at all? in Missouri, St. Charles has a very limited transit system in its county seat and has been strongly Republican. On the other side of the state the bus system in both Platte and Clay counties are modest but at least they let the bus system in. And of course those counties are far more likely to vote Democratic compared to St. Charles County.

This is by far the most rational explanation as to how WI could become a Lean R state. Very well-written! No, WOW is not supportive of a mass transportation system, nor do they even favor affordable housing projects. However, Evers is trying to change that through the proposed Milwaukee railway system. Otherwise, it sucks that WI's demographics could make it trend R. I suppose I'll enjoy its swing status as for right now.

I did a little bit of research and I saw that Waukesha County has a modest mass transportation system.

https://waukesha-wi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/TransitGuide-Jan2019

And also Ozaukee County has some mass transit. Could not find any quick information about Washington County. But they are all obviously very modest to laughable.

The GOP has a lot of room to grow in rural Wisconsin but I still have find it true that the upper Midwest has rural areas that are fundamentally less conservative compared to the lower Midwestern and Southern counter parts.

But at the end of the day on election night 2020. If the election is close for President I expect that Trump carries both Wisconsin and Michigan.

[R.P. McM]

In 2014, my dog killed one of the rabbits at the start of their mating season, ending the line. Since then, no Democrat has won statewide in Indiana and districts once rated as "tossup" are now solidly Republican. I conclude that there is a direct inverse relationship between the rabbit population of the Indianapolis suburbs and the electoral viability of Democratic candidates.

In 2005, when I was in college, a litter of cats was born in my parents' basement. Several years later, my mom massacred a rabbit burrow with the riding lawnmower (she felt terrible). Sufficed to say, the rabbits are no more. The Republicans? It's not looking good.