Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Mike88]

Important note from the Basque country turnout reports:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1282347292956274689

Attention, in EUSK there has been a very high rate of mail voting, which will raise the participation rate at the end of the day.

[Velasco]

It' s a pity but turnout in Galicia may end being a bit lower than the preceding election. On paper this points to no change

Turnout reports from the Basque Country suggest me a good result for EH Bildu, but I'm just speculating.

The face mask campaign was extremely boring and unremarkable, except for the coronavirus outbreaks in A Mariña (Lugo province, Galicia) and Ordizia (Gipuzkoa, BC). Pablo Iglesias has been particularly erratic and out of focus, regarding a Twitter controversy sparked by Pablo Echenique (a deplorable politician, imo). It's a huge mistake attacking journalists instead of focusing on achievements like the vital minimum income or social dialogue developments  (Yolanda Díaz is an asset). I don't know if such things will affect the Galicia en Común and Elkarrekin Podemos results (polls weren't good anyway). The PSOE is risking to be humliated in Galicia, in case the BNG comes second surpassing the socialists. The PP results will be uneven and interesting to analyze in terms of internecine wars. Vox has a chance of winning a seat for Alava in the Basque Country with that low turnout. Anything but a PNV-PSE majority in the BC would be a failure,  but that looks as unlikely as Feijoo losing majority in Galicia

[Mike88]

It' s a pity but turnout in Galicia may end being a bit lower than the preceding election. On paper this points to no change

Turnout reports from the Basque Country suggest me a good result for EH Bildu, but I'm just speculating.

The face mask campaign was extremely boring and unremarkable, except for the coronavirus outbreaks in A Mariña (Lugo province, Galicia) and Ordizia (Gipuzkoa, BC). Pablo Iglesias has been particularly erratic and out of focus, regarding a Twitter controversy sparked by Pablo Echenique (a deplorable politician, imo). It's a huge mistake attacking journalists instead of focusing on achievements like the vital minimum income or social dialogue developments  (Yolanda Díaz is an asset). I don't know if such things will affect the Galicia en Común and Elkarrekin Podemos results (polls weren't good anyway). The PSOE is risking to be humliated in Galicia, in case the BNG comes second surpassing the socialists. The PP results will be uneven and interesting to analyze in terms of internecine wars. Vox has a chance to win a seat for Alava in the Basque Country with that low turnout. Anything but a PNV-PSE majority in the BC would be a failure,  but that looks as unlikely as Feijoo losing majority in Galicia

I wouldn't be surprised if BNG surpasses PSOE in Galicia. The turnout figures from their strongholds seem to be way up compared with the PSOE ones. I believe Podemos in Galicia will not have a good night. It seems their voters have gone to BNG.

About turnout in the Basque Country, like in the post above, mail voting seems to be quite high but I don't know if they will be counted tonight or in the next few days. That could change some seats, like for Vox.

In half a hour we will know.

[jaichind]

When will polls close and any links to results ?

[Mike88]

When will polls close and any links to results ?

Polls close in half a hour, at 8pm local time, 2pm in NY.

Results pages:

Basque Country:
https://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados

Galicia:
https://resultados2020.xunta.gal/resultados/0/galicia

[Mike88]

Galicia Exit Poll: (TV Galicia/GfK)

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
       2 GeC

[jaichind]

Galicia Exit Poll

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
        2 GeC

Looks like PP underperformed

[Mike88]

Galicia Exit Poll

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
        2 GeC

Looks like PP underperformed

And the PSOE crashed.

Also, another exit poll gives the PP a clear majority and BNG ahead of PSOE:

GAD3-ABC exit poll:

40-42 PP
16-18 BNG
     16 PSOE
       2 GeC

[Velasco]

Vote by mail is counted on the very election night, alongside ordinary votes. Votes from abroad are counted days later, but usually they don't change anything

[Mike88]

Another exit poll for Galicia: (Sondaxe - La Voz)

42 PP
15 BNG
14 PSOE
  4 GeC

Exit poll for the Basque Country:

31 PNV
20 Bildu
11 PSOE
  7 Podemos
  5 PP+C's
  1 Vox

[Velasco]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

[Mike88]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

Would the PSOE acept that?

[Velasco]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

Would the PSOE acept that?

It would be suicidal for the PSOE in Galicia not accepting that

[Mike88]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

Would the PSOE acept that?

It would be suicidal for the PSOE in Galicia not accepting that

Well, becoming a junior partner of BNG could also be suicidal for them, IMO. It seems a lose-lose situation for them. But we'll see. PP could lose its majority but I'm still saying they will hold on with their majority at maybe 39 seats.

[Former President tack50]

It seems Feijoo will probably (but not 100% sure) keep his majority.

The Basque Country went as expected really

The big surprise of tonight will be that BNG beats PSOE for 2nd.

[Skye]

First votes are coming in.

[Velasco]

I'd bet that Feijoo holds, but in case PP loses majority progressive Galicians would demand a leftwing coalition. The PSOE is already a junior partner in the Basque Country and Cantabria. Anyway, a BNG premier would be a shock. Let's wait

[Mike88]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

[Mike88]

Results from Galicia: 7.43% in

58.4% PP
19.2% BNG
16.7% PSOE
  2.0% GeC
  1.7% Vox
  0.4% C's

Nothing yet from the Basque Country.

[Velasco]

Results from Galicia: 7.43% in

58.4% PP
19.2% BNG
16.7% PSOE
  2.0% GeC
  1.7% Vox
  0.4% C's

Nothing yet from the Basque Country.

I guess that 7% sample are overwhelmingly rural precincts. Basques must be waiting to have a more advanced count. It will be quick anyway

[jaichind]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

It also deceptively (no on purpose of course) list Podemos as a new party and does not show the sharp vote share drop from 2016

[Skye]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

It also deceptively (no on purpose of course) list Podemos as a new party and does not show the sharp vote share drop from 2016

Hardly deceptive. It's a different coalition, and usually, official sources will count them as new parties.

[Mike88]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

It also deceptively (no on purpose of course) list Podemos as a new party and does not show the sharp vote share drop from 2016

Hardly deceptive. It's a different coalition, and usually, official sources will count them as new parties.

Well, because Marea split they are presenting them differently. They could have put Marea compared with "EN MAREA-COMPROMISO POR GALICIA-PARTIDO GALEGUISTA-MAREA GALEGUISTA", but still.

[jaichind]

So far the results looks pretty good for PP in Galicia.  I assume the count so far as a rural lean?

[Skye]

So far the results looks pretty good for PP in Galicia.  I assume the count so far as a rural lean?

Correct, I just checked and the cities are way behind in the count (except for Ourense). The PP has nowhere to go but down from here, since in Galicia the cities for the most part lean to the left.