Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Mike88]

While polling has almost completely stopped, and the few polling we have does not seem very consistent; it does seem Sánchez is not getting a "rally with the flag" effect. However a poll from Galicia today (which had to cancel its election scheduled for April) does show a "rally with the flag effect" for regional premier Alberto Núñez Feijoo:

I've read that many newspapers and media outlets are boycotting the government's press conferences as questions seem to have to sent to the government before the conferences. Maybe this isn't helping Sanchéz poll numbers.

[Mike88]

Why did she said this?

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1262812106447097856

Carmen Calvo's explanation about the expansion of the coronavirus: "New York, Madrid and Beijing are in a straight line, three of the big cities where there has been a problem with the devil"

[Mike88]

I get from El Español that Carmen Calvo might be referring, with someinaccuracies, to some research pointing that some cities hardly beaten by coronavirus around the world have similitudes in humidity and temperature. Perhaps these factors might contribute to the coronavirus spread, but the research has not been revised. The cities mentioned in the research are Wuhan, NY, Tehran, Madrid and some others

Carnen Calvo also said that she supports aconstitutional reform to make the Senate ''federal''

Apparently Pedro Sánchez will request a two-week extension for the state of alarm instead of a month, due to the Cs oppisition to the initial submission.

Nonetheless it seems odd. I found this on social media with many comments mocking her. There has been some mocking of Spanish politicians on social media here in Portugal, even the media sometimes mentions it, not mock but a slight critic.

The extention of the state of alarm is just in some regions like Madrid and Catalonia, right? The rest of the country is already exiting the lockdown. That's the sense I have and I visit normally the El País and El Mundo websites.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 5pm in Galicia is basically the same as in 2016:

2020 - 42.95% (+0.46)
2016 - 42.49%

Change by province:

A Coruña: +0.82%
Lugo: -0.93%
Ourense: -1.84%
Pontevedra: +1.30%

[Mike88]

Turnout at 5pm in the Basque Country colapses compared with 2016:

2020 - 36.02% (-8.36)
2016 - 44.38%

Change by province:

Araba/Álava: -9.27%
Bizkaia: -8.46%
Gipuzkoa: -7.79%

[Mike88]

Important note from the Basque country turnout reports:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1282347292956274689

Attention, in EUSK there has been a very high rate of mail voting, which will raise the participation rate at the end of the day.

[Mike88]

It' s a pity but turnout in Galicia may end being a bit lower than the preceding election. On paper this points to no change

Turnout reports from the Basque Country suggest me a good result for EH Bildu, but I'm just speculating.

The face mask campaign was extremely boring and unremarkable, except for the coronavirus outbreaks in A Mariña (Lugo province, Galicia) and Ordizia (Gipuzkoa, BC). Pablo Iglesias has been particularly erratic and out of focus, regarding a Twitter controversy sparked by Pablo Echenique (a deplorable politician, imo). It's a huge mistake attacking journalists instead of focusing on achievements like the vital minimum income or social dialogue developments  (Yolanda Díaz is an asset). I don't know if such things will affect the Galicia en Común and Elkarrekin Podemos results (polls weren't good anyway). The PSOE is risking to be humliated in Galicia, in case the BNG comes second surpassing the socialists. The PP results will be uneven and interesting to analyze in terms of internecine wars. Vox has a chance to win a seat for Alava in the Basque Country with that low turnout. Anything but a PNV-PSE majority in the BC would be a failure,  but that looks as unlikely as Feijoo losing majority in Galicia

I wouldn't be surprised if BNG surpasses PSOE in Galicia. The turnout figures from their strongholds seem to be way up compared with the PSOE ones. I believe Podemos in Galicia will not have a good night. It seems their voters have gone to BNG.

About turnout in the Basque Country, like in the post above, mail voting seems to be quite high but I don't know if they will be counted tonight or in the next few days. That could change some seats, like for Vox.

In half a hour we will know.

[Mike88]

When will polls close and any links to results ?

Polls close in half a hour, at 8pm local time, 2pm in NY.

Results pages:

Basque Country:
https://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados

Galicia:
https://resultados2020.xunta.gal/resultados/0/galicia

[Mike88]

Galicia Exit Poll: (TV Galicia/GfK)

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
       2 GeC

[Mike88]

Galicia Exit Poll

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
        2 GeC

Looks like PP underperformed

And the PSOE crashed.

Also, another exit poll gives the PP a clear majority and BNG ahead of PSOE:

GAD3-ABC exit poll:

40-42 PP
16-18 BNG
     16 PSOE
       2 GeC

[Mike88]

Another exit poll for Galicia: (Sondaxe - La Voz)

42 PP
15 BNG
14 PSOE
  4 GeC

Exit poll for the Basque Country:

31 PNV
20 Bildu
11 PSOE
  7 Podemos
  5 PP+C's
  1 Vox

[Mike88]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

Would the PSOE acept that?

[Mike88]

There is room for surprise in Galicia, according to that exit poll. Ana Ponton as premier would be a shock. BNG looks like the big winner, even if Feijoo holds

Would the PSOE acept that?

It would be suicidal for the PSOE in Galicia not accepting that

Well, becoming a junior partner of BNG could also be suicidal for them, IMO. It seems a lose-lose situation for them. But we'll see. PP could lose its majority but I'm still saying they will hold on with their majority at maybe 39 seats.

[Mike88]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

[Mike88]

Results from Galicia: 7.43% in

58.4% PP
19.2% BNG
16.7% PSOE
  2.0% GeC
  1.7% Vox
  0.4% C's

Nothing yet from the Basque Country.

[Mike88]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

It also deceptively (no on purpose of course) list Podemos as a new party and does not show the sharp vote share drop from 2016

Hardly deceptive. It's a different coalition, and usually, official sources will count them as new parties.

Well, because Marea split they are presenting them differently. They could have put Marea compared with "EN MAREA-COMPROMISO POR GALICIA-PARTIDO GALEGUISTA-MAREA GALEGUISTA", but still.

[Mike88]

So far the results looks pretty good for PP in Galicia.  I assume the count so far as a rural lean?

Yes, the vote so far is more rural, but some urban vote is already in, like from Vigo and A Coruña. In Vigo, the PSOE is in the lead, although with very few precincts reporting. However, the PSOE candidate uncle is the mayor, or rather, the king of Vigo. This may had an influence.

[Mike88]

Results from the Basque Country: (51.1% counted)

40.1% PNV, 32 seats
27.6% Blidu, 22
13.5% PSOE, 9
  7.8% Podemos, 5
  6.8% PP+C's, 5
  1.9% Vox, 1

[Mike88]

With the count at 30%, the PP is still at 45 and GeC is at 0 eaten by the BNG. PP seats will drop, but Feijoo will hold in all likelihood. No room for surprise, sadly

Would there not be another seat drop for PP once Podemos gets above the threshold to get seats ?

Yes, PP, in may view, will lose 3/4 seats, from their current 43 in the count, and CeG will gain 1/2 seats.

[Mike88]

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

[Mike88]

The Vox results are ridiculous, even if it ends winning that cheap seat for Alava

Wait, how did VOX win a seat with 1.9% of the vote. What is the threshold to win seats in Basque Country ?

They won a seat in Araba province where they are polling at 3.6%.

[Mike88]

With 71% of the vote counted, it starts to become stronger the possibility that GeC will not win a single seat.

[Mike88]

Results by muncipality:

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/mapa-resultados-12j-galicia-municipio_1_6098421.html

And the map:

https://twitter.com/EP_Data/status/1282422228785811457

[Mike88]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular sociakist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

Yeah, the map has that error. Weird. And the PSOE candidate for the Presidency of Galicia was his nephew.

And a seat is still in play in Pontevedra province. The PP currently leads the 11th seat by just 160 votes. The PP and PSOE are fighting for the seat

[Mike88]

The results in the Basque Country are also final:

39.1% PNV, 31 seats
27.8% Bildu, 22
13.6% PSOE, 10
  8.0% Podemos, 6
  6.7% PP+C's, 5
  2.0% Vox, 1

Map:
https://twitter.com/rtve/status/1282409416273338369