Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?

I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias

Well, the article says the Podemos demands were excessive and I agree with that. On the other hand,  Le Monde correspondent Sandrine Morel says that Sánchez was overconfident and let the time go by. Both criticisms are correct, in my opinion. I'm not fluent in French  and maybe I'm missing something

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/07/25/pourquoi-pedro-sanchez-n-a-pas-ete-reconduit-a-la-tete-du-gouvernement-espagnol_5493447_3210.html

[Velasco]

How likely do you think it is they manage to form something by September.  On program and most issues divide seems small and if an election is called and right wins, I suspect many on left will be really angry at blowing a golden opportunity for a progressive government.  Or will threat of an election but enough that one finally agrees.

The relationship between PSOE and UP is broken and it's going to be extremely difficult to restore. I'll summarize last developments in telegraphic style.

1) Deputy PM Carmen Calvo ruled out today the possibility of a coalition government. The last offer made to Podemos expired when Iglesias rejected it before the second investiture vote. Previously Pedro Sánchez said that socialists will reset and explore "other ways".

2) IU released a statement asking Podemos to reach a programmatic agreement with the PSOE, even without a coalition government. This reveals divisions within UP, with some coalition partners and factions criticizing the way Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle conducted negotiations.

3) The king will postpone the next round of talks, in order to give time to the parties.

Right now everything points to elections in November, but two months is a long time.

[Velasco]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

[Velasco]

Wondering what went wrong

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/26/inenglish/1564127930_233324.html

It all happened so fast that there are plenty of people still trying to understand it. Not even the main protagonists of Thursday’s events in Congress are completely clear on just how negotiations on issues that are by no means impossible to agree on could have ended so badly, with a desperate last-ditch offer from Pablo Iglesias voiced from the lectern itself in Spain’s lower house of parliament.

[Velasco]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

You obviously right on the political dynamics but it seems to me that Sanchez has to threaten an outcome that is even worse for  Podemos  than status quo.  Not sure what it should be.

Repetition of elections is already a terrible outcome for Podemos. IU and other factions within UP will try to convince Iglesias to reach a confidence and supply agreement if a coalition government is not possible (and that possibility is dead in its tracks, according to deputy PM Calvo)

United Unknown made 13 satirical micro videos in square format for twitter about the Spanish political class that are funny and very well crafted. There are videos for the king, former PMs González, Aznar and Rajoy, the leaders of the main parties and even unemployment lines and  media sewers. Here you have Casado, Rivera and Arrimadas

https://twitter.com/unitedunknown/status/1154725428118118400?s=20

[Velasco]

Will errejon's run faction run in a new election?

Rumours exist, but Errejón and his collaborators deny some press reports and say their efforts are focused on the organization in Madrid. But Errejón admits there exists a space for "nonsectarian" and progressive forces, as well he says there is many people "excited" with that possibility and doesn't rule out to run. The rumours say Errejón is seeking to forge regional alliances, in order to create some sort of confederation. Possible allies are Compromís (Valencia), En Comú Podem (ECP, Catalonia), En Marea (Galicia) or even Adelante Andalucía (AA). The Valencian and the Galician parties already broke with Podemos, as well Errejón and Compromís leader Mónica Oltra have an excellent relationship. The Catalan and the Andalusian parties are still members of UP and it'd be complicated they ally a party led by Errejón. However, there is no great affinity between Ada Colau and Pablo Iglesias; the ECP leader and Barcelona mayor has a better relationship with Errejón. On a curious note, Errejón speaks Catalan as he decided t learn the language despite lacking family links with Catalonia (it's not an usual thing). Regarding Adelante Andalucía, the leader Teresa Rodríguez is member of the Anticapitalist faction of Podemos. It's notorious the relationship between Rodríguez and Iglesias is bad and some rumours say she would prefer to ally with Errejón, despite ideological differences (Rodríguez is more "radical" and Errejón is more "moderate"). Rodríguez is seeking more autonomy for AA within UP, but tbh I see extremely difficult it would leave the alliance with Iglesias in the eventuality of a November election. But people in UP fear Errejón could make a lot of harm to them standing lists in the largest constituencies, while people at La Moncloa (the government's seat) is making calculations.

Recently the Errejón party Más Madrid won a senator, appointed by the regional assembly. The MM member joined ECP, AA, Compromís and Més per Mallorca to create a parliamentary group called "Confederal Left". These parties joined forces in order to get more visibility in the Upper House, as Podemos lost all its representatives in the last general election.

https://twitter.com/unitedunknown/status/1154725641742356481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Velasco]

Who is being blamed for this fiasco?

There is a Metroscopia poll that says people blames PSOE the most. This doesn't imply necessarily voters will punish the socialists more than UP. But again, leftwing voters are angry and disappointed. Additionally, the fear of Vox has disapoeared. They might stay at home if we go to elections.

The CIS poll is obviously unreliable. Tezanos is saying something yhat we knew already: Sánchez is too sexy for this world

[Velasco]

"Spain’s voters upset at stalemate but divided over a new election", according to a 40dB poll for El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/08/01/inenglish/1564644095_006608.html

A study by the pollster 40dB shows that 71.6% of citizens are either upset or at the very least concerned about the way their political representatives have conducted themselves throughout the prolonged post-election period, which ended in a failed investiture bid last week.

Only right-wing and far-right supporters feel that a return to the polls would be a good solution for Spain, which has already gone through three general elections in under four years. The last one, on April 28, was won by the Socialist Party (PSOE) but the party fell short of an overall majority and has been struggling to form a government.

Political instability makes Spain to fall two spots in the Good Governance Index, from 25th to 27th

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/30/inenglish/1564483345_766673.html

Political instability in Spain is hurting its global image. The country has fallen from 25th to 27th place on the Good Governance Index, compiled by the MESIAS project with support from España Global (or Global Spain), a state agency working to monitor and improve the country’s image abroad.

The index ranks countries in six different areas: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. Spain fell in all parameters from 2016 to 2017 except for rule of law, where it moved up one place to 26th spot. But the most pronounced fall was in the area of political stability, where Spain fell from 33rd to 40th position on the list of 145 countries.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso will be the next premier of the Madrid region leading a PP-Cs coalition government. She has secured the Vox support after Cs accepted the lowered demands of the far right party. According to Cs regional leader and next deputy premier Ignacio Aguado, the parties found a "common denominator" and the document submitted by Vox doesn't affect the previous deal signed by PP and his party. The Vox paper relinquishes the following demands:

 a) reduction of regional governmet members (cabinet posts were increased from 9 to 13, in order to make room for PP and Cs politicians)
b) the modification of LGTBI legislation
c) the transfer to the origin countries of the health costs of irregular immigrants
d) a common deal signed by the three parties: a verbal and public commitment will be enough

Vox opted to focus on issues assumable for PP and Cs such as:

 a) more tax cuts (Madrid is already the Spain's tax haven)
b) creation of a new department of social affairs, family and natality aimed to "reverse the demographic winter")
c) freedom of school choice
d) PP and Cs accept the police has full access to all the data of irregular immigrants collected by regional administration
e) development aid will be used preferentially in regional projects against depopulation
f) all victims of violence, intimidation and harassment will be treated in the same way, preventing they have different levels of protection (this probably implies regional programme against gender based violence will be replaced by generic measures against "domestic violence", but possibly that's contrary to national legislation)

Ángel Gabilondo, the PSOE candidate in Madrid who placed first in elections, deems the Vox paper "disturbing"

A similar arrangement was made in previous days  between PP, Cs and Vox to govern the region o Murcia. The new premier Fernando López Miras (PP) thanked Cs and Vox for their generosity

PSOE will govern Navarre in coalition with GBai, Podemos and IU. EH Bildu held a grassroots consultation and 75% of voters agreed to allow the investiture of the socialist María Chivite with the abstention of their members in regional assembly. 

A coalition deal was reached in Aragón between PSOE, Podemos, PAR and CHA with the additional support of IU. The coalition incorporates the regional left and the centre-right Aragonese Party (PAR), a regionalist force often allied to PP. The PAR rejected a rightwing coalition due to incompatibility with Vox's radical centralism, opting to make a deal with the PSOE. Socialist premier Javier Lambán was reelected yesterday

[Velasco]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/02/inenglish/1567410896_725381.html

Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, trusts that the current political deadlock will be resolved without the need for a repeat general election. In an interview with EL PAÍS he gave on Friday of last week at La Moncloa, the seat of the Spanish government, the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader earnestly defended a “third way” that would also bypass the option of a coalition with the leftist Unidas Podemos.

Sánchez, who will present his latest proposal on Tuesday in Madrid, said that it is based on a common progressive program that should allow him to secure enough parliamentary support to be confirmed as the new prime minister of Spain. He has been heading an acting administration since the election of April 28, which the PSOE won but without a majority to form a government. An investiture session held in July ended in defeat when Sánchez failed to attract the 176 votes he needed. This in turn triggered a countdown for new elections that ends on September 23. Fresh polls would be held in November, and would mark the fourth time Spaniards have been called to a general election in four years.  

[Velasco]

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

Let's see what the last offer is about, but basically is what you say. Either Sánchez & Co expect that Iglesias presses the panic button before day 23, or they are overconfident with the scenario of a new election.

From my perspective, both Sánchez and Iglesias are mistaking. The Podemos leader made a brilliant move in July, when he stepped aside and forced socialists to negotiate a coalition that Sánchez never wanted. However, Iglesias ruined his tactical success by asking too much and rejecting the last offer made by the socialists. Also, appointing someone like Pablo Echenique to talk with the socialists wasn't a wise decision in my opinion. Anyway a coalition agreement is totally impossible now, since there is no way to form a solid and stable government when there is no trace of mutual confidence

[Velasco]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?

PP got 33% of the vote and won 137 seats in the repetition of elections that took place in 2016. It was a good result for Rajoy, but clearly insufficient to conform a majority in Congress. I doubt Sánchez will improve that mark in November, so there is no alternative to a deal with Podemos in the present circumstances

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/03/inenglish/1567518646_547318.html

Acting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has presented a series of 370 policy pledges to try to convince Unidas Podemos to back his bid to be voted back into office. What’s more he has offered the leader of the left-wing anti-austerity party, Pablo Iglesias, “a rigorous system of control” to ensure that a potential government headed by his Socialist Party (PSOE) sticks to any governing deal (...)

Sánchez also today offered Unidas Podemos – which itself is a coalition of the party founded by Iglesias and the United Left (IU) – “key responsibilities” in state institutions that are not subordinated to the Cabinet. He also called on the parties’ negotiating teams to meet on September 5. Another meeting between Sánchez and Iglesias has yet to be confirmed, but it could take place sometime next week.

Sánchez described the offer as a “triple guarantee” for Podemos, given that it includes an office connected to the Finance Ministry that would ensure that any governing deal is respected; monitoring committees in both Congress and the Senate; and a third guarantee mechanism in which members of civil society would participate. “We don’t want votes at our investiture for free,” Sánchez said of what he described in an interview with EL PAÍS published this past weekend as a “third way” forward, somewhere between the coalition government that Podemos has been demanding, and the PSOE minority government that the acting prime minister is pushing for.

“If the problem with Unidas Podemos is mistrust, let’s build trust and establish maximum guarantees,” Sánchez told a crowd of 700 people today at a presentation of the 370 measures. “Our attitude is sincere, we must not become enemies. We can be loyal allies as we have been in the past.”

Hours before Sánchez took to the stage, during an interview on state broadcaster TVE, Iglesias repeated his demand for Unidas Podemos to be given ministries in exchange for support for the PSOE. But the acting PM today repeated his view that this would be “unworkable” and “unfeasible” after the failure of the investiture vote in July, before which Iglesias had been offered one of the two deputy prime ministerial roles in the Cabinet, and three ministries.

Some of the policy points meet the UP demands, others have slight differences with the UP stance (UP wants to repeal the current labour legislation, while PSOE just wants to reform some controversial aspects) and there's a mention to Catalonia that reflects the PSOE's stance opposing a referendum on self-determination (which UP suports, although it's not a "red line" for them). In spite of the later, apparently ERC would not oppose the investiture of Sánchez in case PSOE and UP reach a deal.

The policy points announced today by the PSOE include the reversal of labor reforms implemented by the conservative PP, constitutional protection for pension rises, and tax hikes for higher earners and large companies in order to pay for a wide range of social measures.

Some of the other plans include measures to combat “abusive” rent rises, a roll-out of a free daycare system across the country, “low-emission zones” similar to the Madrid Central scheme in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, and a tightening of sexual assault laws to ensure that if a women “does not specifically say yes, everything else is a no.” 

The complaints of people on here aren't reflected in the polls (for now). SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos are both out with new polls that show the left gaining.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.

I'm wondering the same question. As far as I'm concerned, I care more about policies and less about power sharing. Personally I think the relationhip between PSOE and UP is too deteriorated to form a coalition governmet right now. However, I also think that Sánchez would have acted differently in case he was truly committed to reach an agreement. His offer comes less than three weeks before deadline, with little room for anything but "take it or leave it".  Possibly the best way to deal with this would be a gradualist approach, a negotiation step by step (first we agree a common platform and build confidence, then we discuss collaborative mechanisms or a coalition agreement).

[Velasco]

PSOE and UP delegations met yesterday and talked for nearly five hours. However, there was no significant progress and both parties stand in their initial positions. PSOE and UP concurred they have very distinct positions, stating their willingness to continue talking in spite of their differences. UP spokepersons claim there is still room for compromise, but criticize the "immovable" attitude of the PSOE. Socialists are firm in their rejection to resume the proposal to form a coalition government they made in July. Podemos MP Ione Belarra stated at the end of the meeting that PSOE is unwilling to negotiate and showed her "concern", while MP Yolanda Díaz stated there is time to negotiate and and consider the proposals on the table. The government expects "the new means of dialog" will be completed with a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias.

Previously and with the clear aim of pressing and encircling Podemos, Pedro Sámchez held meetings with the leaders of PRC (acting PM met in Cantabria with premier Miguel Ängel Revilla), PNV (with chairman Andoni Ortuzar in Madrid), while lieutenants José Luis Ábalos and Adriana Lastra met with ERC parliamentary spokesman Gabriel Rufián. PSOE has secured the PRC support already and the PNV endorsement is almost certain (Basque nationalists, however, were upsetted because socialists haven't contacted them this summer), while Gabriel Rufián (his conversion from parliament fool to statesman is amazing) made clear that ERC won't be an obstacle to the investiture of Sánchez and sent a not so veiled message to Pablo Iglesias (implying that maybe the Podemos leader is too obsessed with getting ministries).

Finally the negotiating teams: no changes in PSOE and some new faces in UP

PSOE: Carmen Calvo (Deputy PM), Adriana Lastra (parliamentary spokeswoman) and María Jesús Montero (Minister of Finance)

UP: Pablo Echenique (Podemos secretary for government action), Ione Belarra (MP, replaces parliamentary spokeswoman Irene Montero during her maternity leave), Yolanda Díaz (MP for Galicia en Común, IU member), Jaume Asens (MP for En Comú Podem), Enrique santiago (IU MP, secretary general of the PCE) and Juan López Uralde (MP, leader of Equo)

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/05/actualidad/1567669329_430319.html?rel=lom

[Velasco]

 No contacts this weekend. PSOE and UP will resume talks tomorrow

GAD3 poll for ABC newspaper

PSOE 32.1% 137
PP 19.9% 82
Cs 14% 45
UP 13.3% 35
Vox 7.9% 14
ERC 3.8% 15
JxCAT 1.9% 7
EAJ-PNV 1.4% 7
Bildu 1% 3
NA+ 0 4% 2
Others 3.3% 3

Turnout 70%

PSOE, UP and PNV would have majority.

Even in this optimistic scenario, Sánchez and Iglesias still need to solve their differences. In case turnout falls below 70% (highly likely, imo), the left will get poorer results in November.

[Velasco]

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.

[Velasco]

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.

Now the context is different. Many in UP suspect one of the main reasons to call elections is that Sánchez is trying to exterminate them and pursuing a comeback of the two-party system. As some PNV spokeperson said today: neither PSOE nor UP are rising to the occasion. They are disappointing the expectations of their voters and maybe they will have to pay a price

EDIT: While there exists a huge rivalry and mistrust between PSOE and UP, they are nothing if compared with the hostility between PD and M5S in Italy. I think it's obvious PSOE and UP are lacking pragmatism and professionalism. Shame on them.

[Velasco]

This morning in parliament Pablo Iglesias asked Pedro Sánchez a face-to-face meeting to unlock the investiture, but the acting PM refused. Sánchez told the Podemos leader that, in case there is an alternative proposal to the coalition government, he can call the negotiation table. The impression is that Pedro Sánchez and spin doctor Iván Redondo are determined to go to elections and destroy Podemos, while Iglesias is making a desperate attempt to save the situation and survive. However, repetition of elections is like playing Russian roulette and we ignore what's the information held by the government. Maybe Sánchez and Redondo are gambling, in order to force Iglesias to cave in and support investiture in exchange for nothing. Recent polls report increasing pessisism on the political and economic situation. This is not a good environment to call elections.

[Velasco]

The king calls political leaders for a last round of talks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/12/inenglish/1568291663_895588.html

Spain’s King Felipe VI has summoned political leaders to a last round of consultations to determine a prime ministerial candidate ahead of a possible investiture vote, according to a press release from La Zarzuela royal palace. The meetings, which will take place on September 16 and 17, will be the last before Spaniards are potentially called back to the polls once more, with a likely November 10 vote marking the fourth time in as many years that Spain holds a general election.6 

Catalan independence rally draws the smallest (but still impressive) crowd in seven years. Currently there exists division within the independence movement. The Diada takes place every year on September 11

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/more-than-half-a-million-call-for-catalan-independence

  More than half a million people have gathered in Barcelona on Catalonia’s national day (Diada) to renew calls for regional independence as Spain awaits the verdict in the landmark trial of 12 separatist leaders over the failed breakaway bid two years ago.

Despite the politically charged atmosphere, police in the Catalan capital said that around 600,000 people had taken part in the annual event – dramatically down on the 1 million who turned out for the previous two Diadas. 

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

[Velasco]

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

Results in other rich sections of LPGC follow a similar pattern: PP ahead with Cs performing a strong second, PSOE is usually third and strong results for Vox (notice this party is relatively weak in the Canaries, with average results in general election between 6% and 7%)

The poorest section is located in a neighbourhood called El Polvorín, a slum area of degraded residential blocks. District 4 ,Section 59 LPGC. Income 5628

PSOE 47%, UP 14%, PP 14%, Cs 8%, CC 6%, Vox 4%, Others 6%

The poorest section in Gran Canaria island is in a place called Valle de Jinámar, located in the neighbouring municipality of Telde (District 1, Section 61. Income 4756). Pretty similar results: PSOE 43%, UP 21%, PP 10%, Cs 8%, CC 4%, Vox 4%, Others 9%.  

[Velasco]

Interesting in many Western countries income is no longer a major factor.  In UK age is main factor while in US and Canada its education.  Right does best amongst older voters regardless of income while in Canada and US areas with lots of university educated types favour left while areas with relatively few favour right regardless of income.

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

To be honest, that is a very surprising place for the richest precinct in town which I did not expect. The surrounding area is certainly well above the city/regional average, but not quite the richest in town (around 14000-18000€), so that precinct stands out quite a bit.

If I had been asked, I would have probably pointed out to the Ciudad Jardín area (large houses in the city center, a bit to the north of where this precinct is) or maybe the Tafira parts that fall inside LPGC (rich suburbs/exurbs, right at the edge of the municipality line)

Of course, in terms of voting places like Ciudad Jardín and Tafira see similar patterns, while similarly, other poor areas in town see similar voting patterns to the places you showed

It surprised me a bit, but I've been at someone's apartment located in that precinct and it's a luxury flat. I know Ciudad Jardín better, though. There are precincts above 20,000 located in Ciudad Jardín, Tafira and in a newer development called La Minilla. I overlooked this, but Cs came first in some of La Minilla precincts. Similarly Cs is the strongest party in some new urban developments north of Madrid, whose inhabitants are usually young professionals.

District 4, Section 73 LPGC. Income 20363

Cs 27%, PSOE 21%, PP 15%, UP 12%, Vox 12%, CC 4%, Others 8%

As you see, PP is surprisingly low for a high income precinct (but Vox is quite high). I think the differences in behaviour are due to the younger age of the residents.

Link to the map of results by precinct:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/01/actualidad/1556730293_254945.html

[Velasco]

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

I know they're probably here somewhere; but have you got breakdowns by party by age somewhere?

Curious to see how PSOE and Vox did by age group.

No, but the data and crosstabs must be available in the CIS post-election survey released in May. The graph below shows the distribution of party vote by age group, according to the CIS. The most remarkable thing is that about a half oh PP voters are older than 65. Vox is more successful among voters aged between 35 and 54, with a peak in the 35-44 segment. Regarding the leftwing vote, the graph shows that Podemos has a strong base among the youngsters and the PSOE vote grows with age.



Some findings on the party vote and interactive graphs

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190430/datos-hablan-radiografia-del-voto-voto-grupos-sociales/1930141.shtml

1) The PP vote is stronger in municipalities with higher proportion of retirees

2) The PSOE vote tends to be stronger in municipalities with higher unemployment rate, as well in the municipalities with higher proportion of people with primary education or without education

3) There is a positive correlation between income and the vote for Cs and Vox, but not with the PP. The vote for Cs and Vox drops sharply in the older segments that overwhelmingly vote for PP.

4) The vote for UP is stronger in municipalities with a higher proportion of urban land. The level of education is positively correlated to the vote for UP (but not income).

5) The vote for Vox is stronger in younger populations and among males. Vox performs better in high income municipalities and in those with a higher proportion of foreign nationals registered. Regarding to the latter, I'd say that it's true for the Vox strongholds in Almería or Murcia (El Ejido, Torre Pacheco), but the neighbourhoods in the main cities where Vox gets better results are usually the most affluent and not the places where immigrants use to live.

[Velasco]

I found the data by age group in the CIS post-election survey.

http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/3240_3259/3248/cru3248edad.html

In question 23R respondents answer spontaneously which party they voted in the last general election. Total results:

PSOE 27.2, PP 10.2, Cs 10.8, UP (plus ECP) 12, VOX 4.9, ERC 3.6, JxCAT 1.9, PNV 1.1, Bildu 1

Keep in mind this is raw data including don't know/don't answer and there is a sample bias. Breakdown by age group is as follows

18-24: PSOE 18.4, PP 4.9, Cs 13.5, UP 21.3, VOX 3.3, ERC 3.8, JxCAT 1.6, PNV 0.2, Bildu 2.7
25-34: PSOE 21, PP 4.5, Cs 13.7, UP 20.8, VOX 6.6, ERC 3.5, JxCAT 0.2, PNV 0.7, Bildu 1.1
35-44: PSOE 24.1, PP 6.3, Cs 13.1, UP 14.4, VOX 7.7, ERC 4.4, JxCAT 0.5, PNV 0.5, Bildu 1.3
45-54: PSOE 29.6, PP 7.2, Cs 11.6, UP 11, VOX 5.3, ERC 3.5, JxCAT 1.8, PNV 0.8, Bildu 0.7
55-64: PSOE 30.9, PP 10.9, Cs 9,UP 11.5, VOX 2.8, ERC 4.4, JxCAT 1.8, PNV 1.5, Bildu 1.2
65+: PSOE 31, PP 19.5, Cs 7.1, UP 4.1, VOX 3.4, ERC 2.5, JxCAT 1.3, PNV 2, Bildu 0.2

[Velasco]

I know the crosstabs will be tiny. But that's a hell of an age gap between PNV and Bildu - not even sure you can put it down to the ETS ceasefire as they were still active until quite recently

The PNV is a broad tent nationalist party, ideologically moderate, champion of the Basque traditions and self-rule. Additionally it has the aura of the natural party of government. I'd say the PNV has all the conditions to be the preferred party of the old Basque Country folk. Probably it was the same before the ETA ceasefire.

[Velasco]

The consultation round of the king with the different parties starts on Monday. Consultations follow an increasing order, from the smallest party to the largest. ERC and Bildu won't participate due to their republican and separatist character, but I think a JxCAT representative will meet with Felipe VI. The attitude of peripheral nationalist parties is allowing the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, either with affirmative vote or abstention and with the exception of JxCAT that would vote against. PP and Cs remain in their opposition, while UP would abstain in an eventual investiture vote in case there is not a last minute agreement with the PSOE. The odds are not good. Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias will meet the king on Tuesday.

A couple of days ago, Pedro Sánchez rejected a last offer for a "trial coalition government" made by Pablo Iglesias (it sounded to me an unnecessary humiliation, tbh).

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/13/inenglish/1568368550_238353.html

    Spain’s acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has rejected the latest offer made by the leftist group Unidas Podemos in a bid to reach a governing deal that would prevent a repeat general election in November.

In their first telephone conversation in a month-and-a-half, Podemos chief Pablo Iglesias and the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) talked for 10 minutes about the possibility of a “trial coalition” between both political forces (...)

Iglesias offered to stay together until mid-2020, after which the PSOE could end the relationship if it felt it was not working. Even then, Unidas Podemos would continue to support Sánchez throughout the rest of the political term.

But Sánchez, who is seeking to head a minority government with external support, rejected the offer

Meanwhile Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo suggested a grand coalition between PSOE and PP. “Sánchez should talk with the rest of the chamber and tell the PP: "I propose a governing coalition, a grand coalition in our country because I don’t trust Podemos", said Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

[Velasco]

"BREAKING NEWS: Albert Rivera offers the PP to abstain together to invest Pedro Sanchez in exchange of:
-Breaking off the (PSOE+GBai+Podemos) deal in Navarra.
-Negotiate article 155 for Catalonia.  They'd commit not to pardon those imprisoned of the 'procés'.
-An economic program not to raise taxes.

(That's the best I could do).

- Cs leader demands in first point that socialists break the deal with Geroa Bai (moderate Basque nationalist) and Podemos in Navarra. This region is located next to the Basque Country in northern Spain. Navarra is among the wealthiest Spanish regions, but it's also a messy place (politically and demographically). The north of the region is Basque speaking and has a strong Basque nationalist vote, while the southern part is Castilian speaking and the main parties sre rightwing regionalist UPN and PSOE. The largest force in regional elections was Navarra Suma (NA+), a coalition incorporating UPN, PP and Cs. However NA+ only won 20 of 50 seats (6 short of a majority) and it has no potential allies in the regional parliament. The alternative coalition led by the PSOE has only 23 seats, so the socialist candidate needed the abstention of 5 EH Bildu members to be elected premier in a second vote. EH Bildu is a leftwing separatist coalition of Basque parties that still carries the stigma of being 'the "heir of ETA", so the national "constitutionalist" parties have established a cordon sanitaire. Despite socialists rejected to negotiate anything with EH Bildu, the Spanish Right claims the abstention of the Bildu members was not for free and there must be some agreement under the table. Also, UPN has been always the champion of the Navarrese integrity against the region's annexation to the Basque Country envisioned by Basque nationalism. There is not a majority supporting the annexation and moderate nationalists are aware of that, so the issue is not on the table. In short, the Right demands that PSOE gives up the region in the name of some sacred interests.

- The second point refers to the article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which allows central government to impose direct rule on regions when constitutional order is in danger. It was implemented when the Parliament of Catalonia made a proclamation of unilateral independence two years ago. Implementing 155 preventively for no good reason is likely unconstitutional, but that's what the Spanish Right demands. PP and Cs also demand to Sánchez a clear statement denying pardon to the  Catalan separatist leaders that currently are awaiting the rule of the Suoreme Court.

- The third point is commitment to tax cuts.

Pedro Sánchez replied there's no reason to oppose his investiture by PP and Cs, because the three conditions are met already. He claims there's no deal with Bildu in Navarra and the regional government is constitutionalist, also that central government watches for the constitutional order in Catalonia (and would implement 155 if necessary) and the PSOE platform incorporates tax cuts for lower and middle classes.