Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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mileslunn
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« Reply #825 on: July 23, 2019, 10:56:06 PM »

At this rate, Sanchez is believing the polls, will allow Spain to go to a 2nd election, & will end up like Theresa May.

I think its still a toss up.  I suspect with risk for both parties, Podemos and PSOE will find a way to reach an agreement, but still only 166 For to 169 against so need either Bhildu or PNV to vote in favour.  Former is more left wing so seems more natural choice but leaves razor thin on budget and other votes.  Possible but far less likely Catalan nationalist will abstain while almost no chance Citizens will.  Real problem is a PSOE + Podemos majority only barely happens under the most optimistic polls while a Citizens + PP + Vox only showed in majority territory back in early April nothing since and recent polls show them well back never mind also probably Citizens and PP might fight over who would lead govt.  Off course with any early election a lot depends on whom is blamed so could swing either way.  I think Thursday's vote will probably fall short, but I suspect there will still be more negotiation before September to try and avoid an election, but who knows.
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Velasco
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« Reply #826 on: July 24, 2019, 03:56:36 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2019, 04:06:58 AM by Velasco »

At this rate, Sanchez is believing the polls, will allow Spain to go to a 2nd election, & will end up like Theresa May.

I think its still a toss up.  I suspect with risk for both parties, Podemos and PSOE will find a way to reach an agreement, but still only 166 For to 169 against so need either Bhildu or PNV to vote in favour.   

No. As I said in a previous post, in case PSOE and UP reach an agreement, PNV and Compromís will vote in favour and ERC will abstain. Then the result would be:

173 Yes: PSOE, UP, PNV, Compromis, PRC
19 abstain: ERC, EH Bildu
158 No: PP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT, CC, UPN

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Velasco
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« Reply #827 on: July 24, 2019, 04:02:45 AM »

In the news: Fear of fresh election could produce last-minute governing deal in Spain

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/24/inenglish/1563955112_759494.html

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In Spain, the pressure to reach a governing deal ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on Thursday has reached a new high after acting prime minister Pedro Sánchez failed to secure enough support to be confirmed as government leader.

The growing risk of a repeat election in the fall makes it more likely that the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos will finally strike a governing deal ahead of Thursday afternoon (...)

Sánchez has been in talks for weeks with Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Unidas Podemos, in a bid to reach a leftist governing deal. But negotiations have stalled and on Tuesday Podemos abstained – a sign that there might still be hope for an 11th-hour agreement before the second round of voting.

In the meantime, other regional parties that could hold the key to Sánchez’s success on Thursday, such as the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Valencia’s Compromís and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), are also pressuring for a deal to prevent a new election.

A few hours after the Tuesday vote, acting deputy PM Carmen Calvo phoned Podemos to take up the talks again. Pablo Echenique, a senior Podemos official, said that his party is awaiting the Socialists’ proposals. A meeting is expected for Wednesday.

Podemos leaders have been conveying the message that they are open to last-minute deals, as long as the PSOE offers them something more than “decorative” positions in the future government. After Sánchez cited Iglesias’ wish to be part of the Cabinet as the main stumbling block to an agreement, the Podemos leader this past weekend agreed to step aside (...)

So far, Sánchez seems unwilling to offer Podemos much more than he has already, which is a few newly created ministerial positions (with very little executive power, says Podemos) and a spot for a deputy PM who would oversee social affairs. On Tuesday, the Socialist leader said in Congress that the choice for the anti-austerity party is either that, “or voting the same way as the far right.”

Some people who are familiar with Sánchez’s personality believe he is acting this way to get more negotiating leverage. Others feel that he simply distrusts Iglesias and that he really is contemplating a fresh election.

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Skye
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« Reply #828 on: July 24, 2019, 01:18:20 PM »

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/07/24/actualidad/1563952484_391932.html

Sánchez has made his last offer to Podemos. It doesn't look like Podemos is thrilled with it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #829 on: July 24, 2019, 02:32:05 PM »

I could be wrong, but my prediction at this point, is investiture fails tomorrow, but a deal is reached before September as new election is a huge gamble and so its in the interest of both sides to avoid it.  Difficulty though will be passing legislation and the budget although since left wing parties do have a majority of seats, a broadly progressive agenda could theoretically pass if all sides put aside egos, but only need a few to not do so and it fails.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #830 on: July 24, 2019, 02:41:58 PM »

Sanchez has leaked on purpose the demands UP was making. UP demanded the deputy PM post (with competences in social rights and the envirnonment) as well as the ministries of Labour, Social rights, Equality, Science, Ecologic transition and Treasury (to be renamed "Fiscal Justice and fight against Fraud" ministry)

If you understand Spanish you can read the leaked document here:

https://es.scribd.com/document/419644189/Exigencias-de-Unidas-Podemos-al-PSOE
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #831 on: July 24, 2019, 03:53:03 PM »

PSOE also leaked their final proposal to Podemos. That one consisted of the deputy PM post and 3 ministries: Housing, Healthcare and Equality
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rob in cal
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« Reply #832 on: July 24, 2019, 04:03:28 PM »

Has there been much of an immigration debate in the government formation talks?  Is there much difference between PSOE and UP on the issue?
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Velasco
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« Reply #833 on: July 24, 2019, 04:15:38 PM »

Has there been much of an immigration debate in the government formation talks?  Is there much difference between PSOE and UP on the issue?

We know little about the actual talks, but I don't think so. UP is more "open borders":than PSOE, to put it simply. However, the differences are not so great to say they are unsurmountable and the issue is not a battle ground between PSOE and UP.

The differences on the Catalan question are more serious and were used by Sánchez as a pretext to sideline Iglesias
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #834 on: July 24, 2019, 04:32:05 PM »

Has there been much of an immigration debate in the government formation talks?  Is there much difference between PSOE and UP on the issue?

No, not really. Immigration is very low in the list of priorities for Spaniards. Even Vox doesn't talk about it that much compared to other similar parties in Europe
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Velasco
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« Reply #835 on: July 24, 2019, 04:49:20 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2019, 04:54:27 PM by Velasco »

I could be wrong, but my prediction at this point, is investiture fails tomorrow, but a deal is reached before September as new election is a huge gamble and so its in the interest of both sides to avoid it.  Difficulty though will be passing legislation and the budget although since left wing parties do have a majority of seats, a broadly progressive agenda could theoretically pass if all sides put aside egos, but only need a few to not do so and it fails.

It's a possibility, but not the best scenario. September could not be a good idea if PSOE and UP are seeking the ERC abstention, because the situation in Catalonia will be more agitated by then. September 11 is the date of the Catalan national holiday: la Diada. There have been huge pro-independence demonstrations in the past 7 years.  This year there will be massive protests in favour of the jailed separatist leaders. Additionally the ruling of Supreme Court is expected this autumn and the sentence could be severe for the Catalan leaders. The following months will be troubled and it'd be better if the investiture is solved and there is a government with full powers. If we go to elections, then it's going to be a terrible mess
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #836 on: July 25, 2019, 03:15:50 AM »

It sounds like there has not been much progress in negotiations between UP and Sanchez and that the latter is therefore likely to lose today's investiture vote. It feels like Sanchez is taking a massive risk thwt current polling does not show to he paying off. So it also seems really foolish.
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Skye
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« Reply #837 on: July 25, 2019, 04:41:10 AM »

Podemos made yet another proposal and PSOE rejected it almost immediately.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/07/25/actualidad/1564035519_677311.html

See you in November bois.
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Velasco
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« Reply #838 on: July 25, 2019, 11:22:44 AM »

Second investiture vote failed

124 Yes: PSOE, PRC
67 Abstain: UP, ERC*, PNV, EH Bildu, Compromis
155 No: OP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT*, CC, UPN

* 3 JxCAT and 1 ERC are suspended

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/25/inenglish/1564043857_784379.html

Quote
  Negotiations between the PSOE and left-wing Unidas Podemos continued right down to the wire today, but the two groups were unable to come up with a governing deal. The clock will now start ticking for another potential investiture vote in September, but if that also comes to nothing, Spain will head toward fresh elections in November. It would be the fourth time that Spaniards have been called to the polls to choose a government in four years, and the fifth election held this year alone.

“Today is not a good day, not for anybody who considers themselves progressive,” summed up PSOE spokesperson Adriana Lastra. “This is the second time, Mr Iglesias, that you are going to prevent a leftist government in Spain,” she added in a direct address to the leader of Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias (...)

For me the chief culprit is Sánchez,  but the UP demands (Treasure, Labour, Ecologic Transition...) were absurdly unrealistic. Maybe Iglesias will regret to have rejected the last PSOE offer. There is still a chance to solve this in the following two months, but the mutual recriminations and the deep mistrust won't make it easy. Countdown for elections starts now
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mileslunn
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« Reply #839 on: July 25, 2019, 12:30:59 PM »

What is the earliest the next investiture vote can be held?  Do they have to wait until September or if PSOE + Podemos strike an agreement can they call one earlier since once they have an agreement they have the numbers.  It seems largely egos here is the big thing standing in between one as Podemos was asking for more ministries than realistic, but PSOE saying none initially also delayed the talks and created a lot of bad will.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #840 on: July 25, 2019, 02:53:54 PM »

What is the earliest the next investiture vote can be held?  Do they have to wait until September or if PSOE + Podemos strike an agreement can they call one earlier since once they have an agreement they have the numbers.  It seems largely egos here is the big thing standing in between one as Podemos was asking for more ministries than realistic, but PSOE saying none initially also delayed the talks and created a lot of bad will.

King Felipe can schedule a new round of talks to establish whether any candidate stands a chance of becoming the next PM any time ahead of the September 23rd deadline. Of course, the only politician who stands a chance is Sánchez, with a new investiture hearing able to set before the deadline upon confirmation that he has sufficient support to win the vote.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #841 on: July 25, 2019, 03:37:13 PM »

From an outsiders perspective this all seems so superficial. I would have totally understood if the reason for the failure was a substantial policy difference (like in Israel), say on Catalonia or budget deficits. But the positions of the parties are so now close to each other, they agreed on a policy paper, they agreed on Iglesias to go out, they agreed on Podemos ministers in Governement...and now they are forcing the Country to new elections (and risking one of the few left-wing governments in Europe) because of squabbling over the exact allocation of ministries? Such things are usually (in Germany at least) the easiest thing to be settled. If people like Casado/Rivera say "well the left are too incompetent to even form a government, how are they going to keep the country together?", it will be hard to argue against that...  This is entirely on Sanchez (especially) and Podemos and they are putting the battle for the hegemony over the left ahead of the good of the country and ahead of progressive goals.

They will also probably face a lot of pressure from grassroots over this and if they end up blowing an opportunity, I suspect grassroots will be really angry.  Still things are moving closer and with 2 months left, an election may happen, but I think a deal is still very much a possibility.
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« Reply #842 on: July 25, 2019, 04:12:11 PM »

From an outsiders perspective this all seems so superficial. I would have totally understood if the reason for the failure was a substantial policy difference (like in Israel), say on Catalonia or budget deficits. But the positions of the parties are so now close to each other, they agreed on a policy paper, they agreed on Iglesias to go out, they agreed on Podemos ministers in Governement...and now they are forcing the Country to new elections (and risking one of the few left-wing governments in Europe) because of squabbling over the exact allocation of ministries? Such things are usually (in Germany at least) the easiest thing to be settled. If people like Casado/Rivera say "well the left are too incompetent to even form a government, how are they going to keep the country together?", it will be hard to argue against that...  This is entirely on Sanchez (especially) and Podemos and they are putting the battle for the hegemony over the left ahead of the good of the country and ahead of progressive goals.

The way I see it, Sánchez clearly doesn't want to give Podemos enough power so that they become more relevant for the next 4 years, which could pose a severe threat to their standing with voters on the left. Plus, there's also the fact that Podemos got only half of the votes (and a third of the deputies) that the PSOE got.
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Velasco
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« Reply #843 on: July 25, 2019, 04:14:04 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2019, 04:46:01 PM by Velasco »

I understand that someone from Germany, or someone from any other country with a tradition of coalition governments, finds this mess inexplicable. I'm still trying to find an explanation and I think many people in Spain is equally asking how we came to this point. I think it was Iglesias who said it's not possible to build a coalition agreement in two days, when you have been doing nothing in the previous 80 days. I think the exclusion of Iglesias was not fair (and socialists didn't expect he was accepting to step aside), but Sánchez had a point saying that Podemos was "asking for the moon" and seeking to form a parallel government.  The talks between PSOE and UP in the last days were not an actual negotiation. Egos aside, at the bottom is underlying a long history of rivalry between the two branches of the Spanish Left (socialdemocratic vs alternative/post-communist) and certain narrative about the "governing left" vs the "protesting left" . I mean, the PSOE is the only party in the Spanish Left with experience in government and never trusted the other leftist parties


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windjammer
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« Reply #844 on: July 25, 2019, 04:40:36 PM »

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.
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Velasco
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« Reply #845 on: July 25, 2019, 04:52:26 PM »

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?
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windjammer
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« Reply #846 on: July 25, 2019, 05:30:48 PM »

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?
I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias
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Velasco
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« Reply #847 on: July 25, 2019, 10:44:25 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2019, 10:52:08 PM by Velasco »

The first day of the investiture debate was depressing. Cs leader Albert Rivera is was particularly disastrous: overacting, deranged and resorting to conspiracy theories in the worst populist fashion. According to Rivera, Sánchez has a plan to destroy Spain. Currently the Cs leader is to the right of Casado and not so far from Vox, something like a modern José Antonio Primo de Rivera. Hearing his speech today, it's not difficult to understand why an increasing number of people is running away from the party. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is strained, which is unsurprising. The Podemos leader showed restraint in his first reply to Sanchez, trying not to burn the bridges, but it became evident the negotiation is ran aground. Sánchez is not very enthusiastic with the idea of a coalition, apparently. Someone believes elections in November is not a bad idea.


So I got a depressing theory about Rivera, a theory that stems from his precarious position politically right now. C's right now, touches almost every part of the spectrum, but is a master of no particular position besides centralism, and as such is vulnerable. Now, this problem may not have emerged if PP didn't flub as much as it did, because these results gave C's an initiative to go and usurp leadership of the Spanish right. If all of VOX's seats were PP seats, I have a feeling Rivera may have tried to come to the table, despite the reservations on both sides, when the egos failed moderate themselves between PSOE and Podems. At the same time C's is trying to coup PP, they face opponents from all sides. PSOE is trying to pull the moderates and left away, VOX is trying to pull the nationalist faction away, and PP is trying to pull back their rightists.

So Rivera is doing something spooky. He sees the VOX base, and how voters on the far right easily deserted him and PP after Andalusia. But at the same time, C's noticed how VOX voters are not like normal post-industrial populists, they are similar to C's voters. They also noticed how VOX's brand has fallen out of favor. What Rivera wants to do methinks is kill off VOX before it even has a chance to prove itself, and reorient C's into a populist party. POSE+Podemos is exactly what Rivera wants since he can now attack the full government as sellouts to the regionalists, not just Podemos. It also explains the C's high commands desire to work with VOX locally when PSOE+C's is an option. They are happy to throw the small left leaning wing of their party under the bus for a similar reason, but potentially not a good one in the long term.

I have no idea how this play will work in the long run, only I can suspect that it will lead to a C's that hardly resembles the one we now today.

It's possible that you are on the right track. I was thinking in a more radical populist turn when I heard the Rivera speech on Monday, but now I'm reading to a prestigious journalist that someone is advising Rivera to become in the Spanish Salvini. There was a social unrest in previous years reflected in the results of the 2015 elections, which introduced an increasing complexity n Spanish politics: weakening of the two traditional parties alongside the surge of Podemos (the moral winner) and Cs (oranges were backed by certain economic and media powers to counter the purple effect: the "Podemos of the right"). That unrest coincided with the peak of the economic crisis, as well with the fatigue of the political system born in 1978 and the increase of territorial tension (Catalonia). Podemos was the party that channelled the demands of the "indignados" movement (also known as 15 M), made up of young and prepared people whose future prospects were threatened by the crisis. But the increasing complexity caused by the surge of new parties has translated into political deadlock. As long as the mess is getting bigger, the people is increasingly less understanding and more fed up with politicians. This is the perfect breeding ground for another kind of unrest of very different nature, anti-political in opposition to the highly politicized "indignados". The surge of Vox is related to the spread of this kind of unrest among rightwing voters, the traditional base of PP. However, as I tried to explain when we were apparently going to succumb to the Vox tide, Santiago Abascal is not Matteo Salvini. Abascal has serious limitations as a leader, lacking the talent for politics and the charisma to become an idol of masses. Rivera is more talented than Abascal and he is turning increasingly aggressive. The turn to a more radical Spanish nationalism is accompanied by a more confrontational style, always in search of conflict and populist headlines (I doubt the incidents at the LGTB parade in Madrid were casual). Rivera is beginning to talk about conspiracy theories (the "Plan Sánchez") and deems his political opponents in the left and the peripheral nationalism as a "gang". This is very Salvini, don't you think?    

Meanwhile the Spanish Left is commiting suicide.
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Velasco
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« Reply #848 on: July 26, 2019, 12:48:12 AM »

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?
I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias

Well, the article says the Podemos demands were excessive and I agree with that. On the other hand,  Le Monde correspondent Sandrine Morel says that Sánchez was overconfident and let the time go by. Both criticisms are correct, in my opinion. I'm not fluent in French  and maybe I'm missing something

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/07/25/pourquoi-pedro-sanchez-n-a-pas-ete-reconduit-a-la-tete-du-gouvernement-espagnol_5493447_3210.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #849 on: July 26, 2019, 03:53:22 PM »

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?
I mean,
For most of them they just announced the news without any analysis. But for Liberation who is a well known leftwing newspaper, they have been extremely critical of Iglesias

Well, the article says the Podemos demands were excessive and I agree with that. On the other hand,  Le Monde correspondent Sandrine Morel says that Sánchez was overconfident and let the time go by. Both criticisms are correct, in my opinion. I'm not fluent in French  and maybe I'm missing something

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/07/25/pourquoi-pedro-sanchez-n-a-pas-ete-reconduit-a-la-tete-du-gouvernement-espagnol_5493447_3210.html

How likely do you think it is they manage to form something by September.  On program and most issues divide seems small and if an election is called and right wins, I suspect many on left will be really angry at blowing a golden opportunity for a progressive government.  Or will threat of an election but enough that one finally agrees.
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