Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.

[Velasco]

The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.

The best way for me is that parties learn to reach compromises and forge agreements. I prefer MMP or PR to FPTP or majority bonus, because I think the former reflect better the people's will than the latter.

Regarding negotiations between PSOE and UP,  I think the main problem is the mutual distrust between Sánchez and Iglesias.  They have differences on econony and the policy towards Catalonia, but they are not irreconcilable. It's the personal factor what makes agreement harder. A possible compromise solution is that PSOE gives up the pretension to govern alone and Iglesias gives up his pretension to be Deputy PM.

Pablo Iglesias will call a plebiscite in order the Podemos grassroots approve his coalition policy, while Andalusian leader Teresa Rodríguez says she won't vote because questions are biased. Rodríguez and her faction oppose a coalition government and favour programmatic agreements similar to the existing in Portugal between PS and the leftist parties.

In other news, Vox is demanding the Madrid regional government the names of LGTB activists that give talks on diversity at schools. It seems obvious Vox aims is to create a "black list" and intimidate activists. Regional government says there are no lists because talks are extracurricular, as well providing that information is illegal. Cs didn't say a word against.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez says the deal with Podemos is dead in water

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/15/inenglish/1563184342_660104.html

Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) has announced that his talks with the leftist Unidas Podemos are over, dimming his chances of securing the necessary majority of votes in Congress on July 22 and 23 (...)

On Monday, Sánchez told the Cadena SER radio network that bilateral talks are over after he learned of the content of a internal consultation that Iglesias is about to hold, asking grassroots members what Podemos’ position should be at the investiture vote next week.

The Iglesias plebiscite angered Sánchez,  who claims it's a "masquerade" aimed tp justify the opposition to his investiture. Podemos membership is asked to choose between two options, neither of them including the last offer made by Sánchez: incorporation of Podemos ministers with a "technical profile". Sánchez will try to meet this week with the leaders of the three main opposition parties (including Iglesias, likely Cs leader will refuse), in order to ask them to abstain. PP and Cs already said they won't do it. Investiture is doomed to fail, apparently

[Velasco]

How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spend months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.

Sánchez has a great deal of responsibility, that's obvious. However, regardless how questionable has been his attitude in the last months, he's not the only guilty party. The political stalemate is a consequence of the excessive polarization of Spanish politics (this climate dates back to the final days of Aznar and the Madrid bombings) and the lack of grandeur. The era of consensus building is long gone and (additionally) there is no tradition of coalition governments at national level. Political parties are engaged in a war on narratives that is not good for the country.

Regarding A, asking PP and Cs to abstain has the tactical purpose of making the opposition parties responsible for the country's stability and counter the narrative that Sánchez is selling Spain to separatists. While it's reasonable to argue the responsibility to form a government belongs to the leader of the winning party, the apocalyptic tone of Casado and Rivera portraying Sánchez as a traitor to the nation has been damaging and objectionable. So there is a point in asking them to abstain, in order the investiture of Sánchez does not rely on ERC or Bildu. In any case, there is a difference between PP and Cs. It's true that Sánchez championed the "No is No", but it's nonetheless true that he paid a heavy price for that and at the end most of his party abstained for the sake of stability. Casado and the PP can easily find pretexts, though. The case of Rivera and Cs is very different. Given the election results, a deal between PSOE and Cs would have been the obvious choice in normal circumstances. Obviously that's not the case, but apparently Sánchez still had some hopes that Cs turned to a position at least favourable to abstention. The reasons are the approachment between Sánchez and Macron, whom met in Paris immediately after the EP elections, and the tactical move of Manuel Valls in Barcelona. However Rivera didn't move from his initial position, despite he has been pressed from all sides.

It's strange that I have to say this about someone I never liked very much, but Manuel Valls made the only positive thing in this period by offering his votes to Ada Colau in exchange for nothing. The move was replicated by Ïñigo Errejón in Madrid, offering outside support for an alternative regional government formed by PSOE and Cs. Oranges made clear they preferred a separatist as mayor of Barcelona, as well as PP (despite corruption) and Vox (through the back door) to govern the key region of Madrid.

Regarding B, the arguments made by Sánchez are basically the differences on the Catalan question and that PSOE and UP are short of a majority. I think the main reason to oppose a formal coalition is that the perspective of having Pablo Iglesias as Deputy PM is very uncomfortable for Pedro Sánchez. It is certainly hard to imagine that a strong character like Iglesias can accommodate to a "modest" role within the government, in accordance to the weight of UP in parliament. Every statement made by the Podemos leader in that regard had the effect to exacerbate the mistrust of Sánchez. It's not possible to make coalition agreements when there exists mutual distrust, even less after the plebiscite called by Iglesias among his grassroots. Still. they are doomed to reach a compromise and it's entirely reasonable that UP demands to participate in the government. Given that Sánchez was moving from his initial position (minority government, confidence and supply agreement), my opinion is that UP should have been more flexible and patient in negotiations. For instance, accepting to discuss the political platform before discussing who enters the government, as certain PNV leader advised recently.

A repetition of elections could be a potential disaster and in neither case would solve the stalemate, even if the PSOE gets better results. Additionally it would damage the reputation of Sánchez in Europe.      

[Velasco]

I remember I read an article a while back that pretty much claimed that in other countries with multi-party systems, the burden to form a government is in the government appointed by the informateur or whoever is in charge of coalition building. Meanwhile it seems that in Spain, the burden is not in the government to be formed, but rather in the opposition to not be an obstacle.

If we go to elections in November, the main responsible for that failure will be Pedro Sánchez. The PSOE leader was commissioned by the king to form a government "as soon as possible". Once you accept the commission, it's reasonable to expect that you will try your best to succeed. So the main guilty is always Sánchez, regardless the narrative from La Moncloa.

Regarding polarization, I would not blame polarization "per se", but rather the multi party system.

The multiparty system is the consequence of the people's will. The composition of the Congress reflects a clear mandate: people is demanding that parties negotiate and reach agreements. It's unlikely that we go back to the two-party system. The political stalemate shows that parties are failing to meet the hopes of their voters. In the eventuality of a snap election, the disappointment within the Left is likely to reflect in lower turnout.

Finally, there have been moves by Errejón that seem to signal that he wants to create his own party and run. I doubt that will go anywhere, but if it does that also hurts UP by a lot.

'Más País' represents my last hope to have a national party somewhat close to my views, so I wish Errejón will go somewhere with his project. Given the electoral results in Madrid, I'd say the Podemos founder has a base of support strong enough to win seats in Congress. However, he needs to build an organization in Madrid before extending to the rest of the country. Errejón has an excellent relationship with Mónica Oltra (Compromís), but he needs more time to build a network of regional alliances. A snap election in November is too early for Errejón, but if he runs I have no doubt he will come back to Congress and damage UP.

[Velasco]

Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)


Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)

Podemos and IU ran separately in the Canary Islands, so UP is not in the coalition. The electoral coalition led by Noemi Santana was called "Sí Podemos Canarias" and incorporated Podemos,  Sí Se Puede (local party based in Tenerife founded years before Podemos) and Equo. IU ran in its own and failed to win seats. The members of regional government are:

Premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Deputy Premier, Finance and Planning: Román Rodríguez (NC)
Economy, Knowledge and Employment: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Public Works, Transport and Housing: Sebastián Franquis (PSOE)
Ecologic Transition: José Antonio Valbuena (PSOE)
Healthcare: Teresa Cruz (PSOE)
Education, Universities, Culture and Sports: María José Guerra (Ind)
Agriculture, Farming and Fisheries: Alicia Vanoostende (PSOE)
Public Administration, Justice and Security: Julio Pérez (PSOE)
Social Affairs, Youth, Equality and Diversity: Noemi Santana (Podemos)
Tourism: Yaiza Castilla (ASG)

It's worth noting that CC lost two historical strongholds: the Cabildo of Tenerife and the local government of the island's capital Santa Cruz. In both cases thanks to a deal between PSOE and Cs, with the outsie support of Podemos. The Cs councilors in the Cabildo and the Santa Cruz town hall have been suspended provisionally by party leadership. Cs does not believe anymore in "democratic regeneration", apparently

The PP mayor-president of Ceuta rejects categorically deals with Vox. Possibly he will be propped up by PSOE.

[Velasco]

The results of the Podemos consultation have been publicized this evening. Unsurprisingly 70% supported the option backed by Pablo Iglesias, that is "integrated coalition without exclusions". The second option was a "government designed by the PSOE, collaboration at administrative levels subordinate to the government and programmatic agreement". The wording of the second proposal angered Pedro Sánchez, who claimed having offered the incorporation of Podemos ministers with a "technocratic" profile (implying the exclusion of Pablo Iglesias and other members of party leadership).

More importantly, this morning Pedro Sánchez made abundantly clear that Pablo Iglesias is the main obstacle for a deal between PSOE and Podemos. The acting PM was crystal clear in an interview with journalist Antonio Ferreras. Sánchez said he cannot accept the presence of Iglesias due to the deep differences in affairs of state, namely the crisis in Catalonia. "Pablo Iglesias talks about political prisoners (referring to separatist leaders awaiting judgment) and I need a Deputy PM who defends the Spanish democracy". The ruling of the Supreme Court is expected to be in October and the acting PM fears turbulence in Catalonia, so he wants inner unity in his cabinet to face the situation. Another reason argued by Sánchez is mutual distrust, referring to some statements made by Iglesias remarking the presence of Podemos is necessary to ensure the compliance of agreements. Sánchez also claims that all the conversations between him and Iglesias have been focused in the re partition of ministries (Iglesias would have demanded Finance, Labour or Communication). Despite these words, Sánchez reiterates his coalition offer consisting in the incorporation of "skilled" Podemos members. However, he warned the offer expires after the investiture vote. Sánchez also reiterates his appeal to PP and Cs to abstain allowing the investiture. No doubt Pedro Sánchez is playing strong.

In other news: "Spain will propose economy minister as new IMF chief if backed by EU"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/18/inenglish/1563435731_182529.html

The Spanish government is ready to nominate its economy minister, Nadia Calviño, to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as long as she receives enough support from other European countries.

The EU’s proposal to put current IMF chief Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank has opened up a race for her succession. EU countries want to put forward a single candidate to increase their chances of having a European in control of the Washington-based organization (...)

[Velasco]

Socialists are now open to the incorporation of any Podemos member to a coalition government, with the sole exception of Pablo Iglesias. This means the incorporation of people with a "political profile" like the second-in-line Irene Montero is possible now, while the previous offer to Podemos was limited to people with a "technical profile"

200 artists make a plea for a progressive government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/19/inenglish/1563525487_105458.html

  A group of Spanish artists has signed a manifesto urging the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos to reach a governing deal in order to prevent a repeat election.

 
Javier Bardem and 200 other artists make plea for a progressive government in Spain
With talks between the Socialists and Podemos at a deadlock, a group of writers and performers has signed a manifesto demanding a deal to avoid a repeat election.

The petition is signed by more than 200 personalities from the world of culture, including actor Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men, The Sea Inside), writer Almudena Grandes (The Ages of Lulu, The Wind From the East) and film director Iciar Bollaín (Take My Eyes, Flowers From Another World) (...)

The manifesto states: “The April elections opened up the possibility that a progressive majority could reach an understanding to govern together. The people came out in force to send a clear message: We don’t want the far right anywhere near the mechanisms of power. But the general enthusiasm after the elections is dissipating as the PSOE and Unidas Podemos struggle to reach an agreement in government negotiations.”

“No party won a big enough majority to govern alone and polls have since shown that the people prefer for there to be an agreement between progressive parties. Now is the time to make a deal, come to an understanding, reach an agreement. Now is the time to make policy for the people,” the manifesto adds.

[Velasco]

Urgent news: Pablo Iglesias steps aside and gives up his pretension to be  in the government, providing there are no more exclusions and UP can select its prople getting a share proportional to its size. "I won't be the pretext for the PSOE to prevent a left-wing coalition government"

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/07/19/actualidad/1563550732_115972.html

[Velasco]

How much of the time spent on arguing between PSOE and Podemos could be used for negotiations with minor parties?

In case PSOE and Podemos reach an agreement, Pedro Sánchez could pass with relative ease the second investiture vote taking place on Thursday next week. I guess the PSOE will have to carry out parallel talks with PNV and Compromís, but both parties are willing to reach an agreement. On the other hand, ERC and Bildu spokepersons stated they won't be an obstacle for the investiture, which can be interpreted as a likely abstention. JxCAT is expected to vote against, following instructions from Puigdemont.

A possible investiture scenario, providing the negotiations against the clock between PSOE and UP are successful, could be:

173 in favour: PSOE, UP, PNV, Compromís, PRC
19 abstentions: ERC, EH Bildu
158 against: PP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT, CC, UPN

Simple majority (enough to pass the second vote)

[Velasco]

According to journalist Enric Juliana, Dilma Rousseff contacted Iglesias and advised him not to carry the responsibility for a new election on his shoulder, as the consequences would be devastating for him and Podemos. In other words, Iglesias gave up to prevent the suicide of his organization

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190720/463591241649/el-mensaje-de-dilma-rousseff.html

[Velasco]

According to journalist Enric Juliana, Dilma Rousseff contacted Iglesias and advised him not to carry the responsibility for a new election on his shoulder, as the consequences would be devastating for him and Podemos. In other words, Iglesias gave up to prevent the suicide of his organization

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190720/463591241649/el-mensaje-de-dilma-rousseff.html

Why is Dilma Rousseff relevant to Spain?

Apparently, his Chief of Staff, Pablo Gentili, & her are close.

Pablo Gentili is an Argentinian professor who worked  for Lula and Dilma before, as well he has been adviser for the governments of Colombia and Argentina. Gentili was hired recently by Pablo Iglesias, who wanted someone experienced to work alongside the Podemos' young cadres. Possibly Dilma was informed of the situation by Gentili and contacted Pablo Iglesias. Apparently she advised the Podemos leader to keep cool. Iglesias is clever and got the message.

[Velasco]

Negotiations are being held in a climate of secretiveness. The PSOE team is headed by Deputy PM Carmen Calvo alongside parliamentary spokeswoman Adriana Lastra and Finance minister María Jesús Montero. The UP team is headed by Pablo Echenique and Irene Montero. The chicken game between Sánchez and Iglesias that ended last Friday have forced a sleepless negotiation against the clock. However, the budget settlement between PSOE and UP provides a basis for programmatic agreement. Actually both parties had prepared the documents for negotiations since months ago, but their staffs have been focused exclusively on communication strategies and narratives. UP nominations and office sharing would be the major obstacles. The share of UP ministries could range between 3 and 5 or 6, depending if it's calculated by seats in parliament or by popular vote (the PSOE-UP ratio is 3:1 and 2;1, respectively)



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/21/spain-socialist-government-sanchez-iglesias-catalonia

  Spain is likely to install a leftwing government this week after Pablo Iglesias, leader of the anti-austerity Podemos, agreed to step aside to enable a coalition between his party and the Socialist Workers’ party, led by Pedro Sánchez.

Months of wrangling since April’s general election came to a head last week when Sánchez said he was prepared to form a coalition on the condition that Iglesias did not have a ministerial position. He said Iglesias was “the principal obstacle” to agreeing on a coalition, adding that other Podemos members would be offered cabinet positions. Among those tipped to join the government is Irene Montero, the party’s number two, who is also Iglesias’s partner.

“We are convinced we are going to reach an agreement in response to the millions of people who voted on 28 April for a progressive government,” Adriana Lastra, the Socialist party spokeswoman, said.

“Over the next few days we will work with discretion and loyalty with the aim that next week the country will have a functioning government,” she added. “We are going to talk about the program and the reforms the country needs.”(...)

Assuming it all goes ahead, the coalition government will have to deal with a country that is still hauling itself out of recession. Overall unemployment stands at around 14%, and more than twice that for 18-24-year-olds. Meanwhile, there is growing unrest in Madrid and Barcelona over soaring rents, street crime and over-tourism, not to mention the perennial and intractable Catalan question.

But Sánchez is ambitious, both for himself and his country, which he wants to position as a leading force in southern Europe. After years of stagnation, Spain is now waiting to see if his campaign slogan “make it happen” has any substance.

Feminism, decent employment and climate crisis will be the focuses of the investiture speech, reports El País

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/07/20/actualidad/1563647948_991843.html

[Velasco]

The first day of the investiture debate was depressing. Cs leader Albert Rivera is was particularly disastrous: overacting, deranged and resorting to conspiracy theories in the worst populist fashion. According to Rivera, Sánchez has a plan to destroy Spain. Currently the Cs leader is to the right of Casado and not so far from Vox, something like a modern José Antonio Primo de Rivera. Hearing his speech today, it's not difficult to understand why an increasing number of people is running away from the party. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is strained, which is unsurprising. The Podemos leader showed restraint in his first reply to Sanchez, trying not to burn the bridges, but it became evident the negotiation is ran aground. Sánchez is not very enthusiastic with the idea of a coalition, apparently. Someone believes elections in November is not a bad idea.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/22/inenglish/1563807689_858287.html

 Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, on Monday urged Congress to entrust him with office so that Spain “does not end up deadlocked.” (...)

In a two-hour address, Sánchez discussed the challenges that he will be tackling as the new leader of Spain: “Unemployment and precarious jobs, the digital revolution, the climate emergency, the discrimination of women and the future of Europe.” He also defended constitutional reforms to prevent future situations of post-election deadlock (...)
Towards the end of his speech, Sánchez appealed directly to Unidas Podemos: “Dealmaking is not easy, but we are united by the promise of the left.”

Podemos, which was aiming for a coalition government with the Socialists, says that so far Sánchez has only offered them “symbolic responsibilities” within his future government. The latter holds that a joint government with Podemos would be impossible due to irreconcilable differences over critical matters such as the situation in Catalonia (...)
 

[Velasco]

Final result of the first round of votes (Majority needed: 176)

Yes: 124 (PSOE, PRC)
Abstain: 52 (UP, PNV, Bildu, Compromis)
No: 170 (PP, Cs, Vox, ERC, JxCat, CC, NA+)

The original intention of UP was to vote "no", but all the deputies except Irene Montero abstained. UP decided to give a last chance to the PSOE, while Deputy PM Carmen Calvo left the doors ipen in an appearance in Congress this morning. The reason why Montero'vvoted "no" is that she cast her vote telematically and early in the morning, as she stayed home caring her children (Pablo Iglesias is the father). UP decided to change the vote in a later meeting. Also, the tone of ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián was more measured than it's usual in him. It's still possible that ERC abstains if PSOE and UP reach a last minute agreement, and they have already the abstention of Basque nationalist parties. Despite this result, the chances are slightly higher today and the general ambience is not as grim as tonight. Still, if agreement is possible and we have a government, the mutual distrust between coalition partners won't be easy to manage.

[Velasco]

The decision made by UP to abstain in the first investiture vote, instead of voting against as it was the original plan, surprised the PSOE in a similar way the decision made by Pablo Iglesias on Friday. Today's abstention and the withdrawal of Iglesias make more difficult for the PSOE to blame UP for a repetition of elections. The inner circle of Pedro Sánchez held a  meeting in Congress that lasted more than three hours and decided to make a new offer to negotiate . This circle of top 'Sanchistas' incorporates Deputy PM Carmen Calvo, parliamentary spokeswoman Adriana Lastra, secretary for organization and minister for Development José Luis Abalos, Finance minister María Jesús Montero and Chief of Staff Iván Redondo. PNV, Compromis and ERC are pressing for an agreement. The two former would vote for Sánchez on Thursday and the latter would abstain in case of PSOE-UP deal. Socialists and UP will hold the key meetings tomorrow

[Velasco]

.  I don't see Spain going to FTFP, but seat bonus for winner like Greece and Italy have is always a possibility, although with regionalist parties might be a tougher sell in Spain than those two, not sure about that.

PP leader Pablo Casado has proposed the introduction of a seat bonus already, but the constitutionality of the bonus is more than dubious. The problem is that we haven't replaced the (imperfect) two-party system by a flexible multiparty system, rather we have now a rigid two-block system that tends to deadlock. I blame the strategic decision made by Albert Rivera more than the existence of regionalist and peripheral nationalist parties. The latter have been always there and reflect the regional diversity of the country and the existence of different cultural identities. Despite the separatist drive in Catalonia has created a big mess, these regionalist parties have the same right as national parties to play a role in the country's governability. In the case of Cs, being a party that (theoretically) occupies the centre of the spectrum, the decision to put a veto on socialists has limited the room for manoeuvre for deals and the flexibility of the party system, not to mention the confrontational attitude with regard to peripheral nationalists tends to aggravate tension  

[Velasco]

At this rate, Sanchez is believing the polls, will allow Spain to go to a 2nd election, & will end up like Theresa May.

I think its still a toss up.  I suspect with risk for both parties, Podemos and PSOE will find a way to reach an agreement, but still only 166 For to 169 against so need either Bhildu or PNV to vote in favour.   

No. As I said in a previous post, in case PSOE and UP reach an agreement, PNV and Compromís will vote in favour and ERC will abstain. Then the result would be:

173 Yes: PSOE, UP, PNV, Compromis, PRC
19 abstain: ERC, EH Bildu
158 No: PP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT, CC, UPN

[Velasco]

In the news: Fear of fresh election could produce last-minute governing deal in Spain

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/24/inenglish/1563955112_759494.html

In Spain, the pressure to reach a governing deal ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on Thursday has reached a new high after acting prime minister Pedro Sánchez failed to secure enough support to be confirmed as government leader.

The growing risk of a repeat election in the fall makes it more likely that the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos will finally strike a governing deal ahead of Thursday afternoon (...)

Sánchez has been in talks for weeks with Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Unidas Podemos, in a bid to reach a leftist governing deal. But negotiations have stalled and on Tuesday Podemos abstained – a sign that there might still be hope for an 11th-hour agreement before the second round of voting.

In the meantime, other regional parties that could hold the key to Sánchez’s success on Thursday, such as the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Valencia’s Compromís and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), are also pressuring for a deal to prevent a new election.

A few hours after the Tuesday vote, acting deputy PM Carmen Calvo phoned Podemos to take up the talks again. Pablo Echenique, a senior Podemos official, said that his party is awaiting the Socialists’ proposals. A meeting is expected for Wednesday.

Podemos leaders have been conveying the message that they are open to last-minute deals, as long as the PSOE offers them something more than “decorative” positions in the future government. After Sánchez cited Iglesias’ wish to be part of the Cabinet as the main stumbling block to an agreement, the Podemos leader this past weekend agreed to step aside (...)

So far, Sánchez seems unwilling to offer Podemos much more than he has already, which is a few newly created ministerial positions (with very little executive power, says Podemos) and a spot for a deputy PM who would oversee social affairs. On Tuesday, the Socialist leader said in Congress that the choice for the anti-austerity party is either that, “or voting the same way as the far right.”

Some people who are familiar with Sánchez’s personality believe he is acting this way to get more negotiating leverage. Others feel that he simply distrusts Iglesias and that he really is contemplating a fresh election.

[Velasco]

Has there been much of an immigration debate in the government formation talks?  Is there much difference between PSOE and UP on the issue?

We know little about the actual talks, but I don't think so. UP is more "open borders":than PSOE, to put it simply. However, the differences are not so great to say they are unsurmountable and the issue is not a battle ground between PSOE and UP.

The differences on the Catalan question are more serious and were used by Sánchez as a pretext to sideline Iglesias

[Velasco]

I could be wrong, but my prediction at this point, is investiture fails tomorrow, but a deal is reached before September as new election is a huge gamble and so its in the interest of both sides to avoid it.  Difficulty though will be passing legislation and the budget although since left wing parties do have a majority of seats, a broadly progressive agenda could theoretically pass if all sides put aside egos, but only need a few to not do so and it fails.

It's a possibility, but not the best scenario. September could not be a good idea if PSOE and UP are seeking the ERC abstention, because the situation in Catalonia will be more agitated by then. September 11 is the date of the Catalan national holiday: la Diada. There have been huge pro-independence demonstrations in the past 7 years.  This year there will be massive protests in favour of the jailed separatist leaders. Additionally the ruling of Supreme Court is expected this autumn and the sentence could be severe for the Catalan leaders. The following months will be troubled and it'd be better if the investiture is solved and there is a government with full powers. If we go to elections, then it's going to be a terrible mess

[Velasco]

Second investiture vote failed

124 Yes: PSOE, PRC
67 Abstain: UP, ERC*, PNV, EH Bildu, Compromis
155 No: OP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT*, CC, UPN

* 3 JxCAT and 1 ERC are suspended

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/25/inenglish/1564043857_784379.html

  Negotiations between the PSOE and left-wing Unidas Podemos continued right down to the wire today, but the two groups were unable to come up with a governing deal. The clock will now start ticking for another potential investiture vote in September, but if that also comes to nothing, Spain will head toward fresh elections in November. It would be the fourth time that Spaniards have been called to the polls to choose a government in four years, and the fifth election held this year alone.

“Today is not a good day, not for anybody who considers themselves progressive,” summed up PSOE spokesperson Adriana Lastra. “This is the second time, Mr Iglesias, that you are going to prevent a leftist government in Spain,” she added in a direct address to the leader of Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias (...)

For me the chief culprit is Sánchez,  but the UP demands (Treasure, Labour, Ecologic Transition...) were absurdly unrealistic. Maybe Iglesias will regret to have rejected the last PSOE offer. There is still a chance to solve this in the following two months, but the mutual recriminations and the deep mistrust won't make it easy. Countdown for elections starts now

[Velasco]

I understand that someone from Germany, or someone from any other country with a tradition of coalition governments, finds this mess inexplicable. I'm still trying to find an explanation and I think many people in Spain is equally asking how we came to this point. I think it was Iglesias who said it's not possible to build a coalition agreement in two days, when you have been doing nothing in the previous 80 days. I think the exclusion of Iglesias was not fair (and socialists didn't expect he was accepting to step aside), but Sánchez had a point saying that Podemos was "asking for the moon" and seeking to form a parallel government.  The talks between PSOE and UP in the last days were not an actual negotiation. Egos aside, at the bottom is underlying a long history of rivalry between the two branches of the Spanish Left (socialdemocratic vs alternative/post-communist) and certain narrative about the "governing left" vs the "protesting left" . I mean, the PSOE is the only party in the Spanish Left with experience in government and never trusted the other leftist parties

[Velasco]

The French newspapers are blaming Podemos for this failure, accusing them of wanting to create a parallel government.

Interesting. Are all the French papers blaming Podemos to the same degree? What say Le Figaro, Le Monde or Liberation?

[Velasco]

The first day of the investiture debate was depressing. Cs leader Albert Rivera is was particularly disastrous: overacting, deranged and resorting to conspiracy theories in the worst populist fashion. According to Rivera, Sánchez has a plan to destroy Spain. Currently the Cs leader is to the right of Casado and not so far from Vox, something like a modern José Antonio Primo de Rivera. Hearing his speech today, it's not difficult to understand why an increasing number of people is running away from the party. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is strained, which is unsurprising. The Podemos leader showed restraint in his first reply to Sanchez, trying not to burn the bridges, but it became evident the negotiation is ran aground. Sánchez is not very enthusiastic with the idea of a coalition, apparently. Someone believes elections in November is not a bad idea.

So I got a depressing theory about Rivera, a theory that stems from his precarious position politically right now. C's right now, touches almost every part of the spectrum, but is a master of no particular position besides centralism, and as such is vulnerable. Now, this problem may not have emerged if PP didn't flub as much as it did, because these results gave C's an initiative to go and usurp leadership of the Spanish right. If all of VOX's seats were PP seats, I have a feeling Rivera may have tried to come to the table, despite the reservations on both sides, when the egos failed moderate themselves between PSOE and Podems. At the same time C's is trying to coup PP, they face opponents from all sides. PSOE is trying to pull the moderates and left away, VOX is trying to pull the nationalist faction away, and PP is trying to pull back their rightists.

So Rivera is doing something spooky. He sees the VOX base, and how voters on the far right easily deserted him and PP after Andalusia. But at the same time, C's noticed how VOX voters are not like normal post-industrial populists, they are similar to C's voters. They also noticed how VOX's brand has fallen out of favor. What Rivera wants to do methinks is kill off VOX before it even has a chance to prove itself, and reorient C's into a populist party. POSE+Podemos is exactly what Rivera wants since he can now attack the full government as sellouts to the regionalists, not just Podemos. It also explains the C's high commands desire to work with VOX locally when PSOE+C's is an option. They are happy to throw the small left leaning wing of their party under the bus for a similar reason, but potentially not a good one in the long term.

I have no idea how this play will work in the long run, only I can suspect that it will lead to a C's that hardly resembles the one we now today.

It's possible that you are on the right track. I was thinking in a more radical populist turn when I heard the Rivera speech on Monday, but now I'm reading to a prestigious journalist that someone is advising Rivera to become in the Spanish Salvini. There was a social unrest in previous years reflected in the results of the 2015 elections, which introduced an increasing complexity n Spanish politics: weakening of the two traditional parties alongside the surge of Podemos (the moral winner) and Cs (oranges were backed by certain economic and media powers to counter the purple effect: the "Podemos of the right"). That unrest coincided with the peak of the economic crisis, as well with the fatigue of the political system born in 1978 and the increase of territorial tension (Catalonia). Podemos was the party that channelled the demands of the "indignados" movement (also known as 15 M), made up of young and prepared people whose future prospects were threatened by the crisis. But the increasing complexity caused by the surge of new parties has translated into political deadlock. As long as the mess is getting bigger, the people is increasingly less understanding and more fed up with politicians. This is the perfect breeding ground for another kind of unrest of very different nature, anti-political in opposition to the highly politicized "indignados". The surge of Vox is related to the spread of this kind of unrest among rightwing voters, the traditional base of PP. However, as I tried to explain when we were apparently going to succumb to the Vox tide, Santiago Abascal is not Matteo Salvini. Abascal has serious limitations as a leader, lacking the talent for politics and the charisma to become an idol of masses. Rivera is more talented than Abascal and he is turning increasingly aggressive. The turn to a more radical Spanish nationalism is accompanied by a more confrontational style, always in search of conflict and populist headlines (I doubt the incidents at the LGTB parade in Madrid were casual). Rivera is beginning to talk about conspiracy theories (the "Plan Sánchez") and deems his political opponents in the left and the peripheral nationalism as a "gang". This is very Salvini, don't you think?    

Meanwhile the Spanish Left is commiting suicide.