Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Yesterday there was a meeting of the Podemos' "citizen council", the party's executive committee. Pablo Iglesias made his case with the coalition, arguing that the only way to change policies is entering the government ("programmatic agreements are dead letters", he said). Currently the "citizen council" consists in the Iglesias' supporters and the regional leaders, given that a majority of the members close to Íñigo Errejón faction has left and the remaining are mere spectators. The only opposition to Pablo Iglesias comes from regions like Andalusia and Aragon, whose representatives favour programmatic agreement instead coalition government as well as a greater decentralization of the party structure. The spokesman of the Andalusian branch warned about the risk of a coalition with the PSOE in a moment the European Commission is demanding cuts to Spain. Pablo Iglesias analyzed the causes of the bad electoral results, arguing they were due to internal division and organizational weakness. The Podemos leader criticized the weak regional structures and the lack of territorial leadership. He only acknowledged the work well done by José María González (aka Kichi, mayor of Cádiz) and Ada Colau (the mayor of Barcelona is not a Podemos member and her reelection is not secured). Iglesias argued that he performed better in general elections (not a good result, but above expectations), showing little capacity for self-criticism in the view of many analysts. The Podemos leader claims he wants to lead a new political stage with coalition governments at all administrative levels. The two-party system is dead and now "compromise and dialogue" are necessary. Iglesias warned again on the possibility that Pedro Sánchez tries to deal with Cs. Finally the renewal of the Podemos leadership entails that Pablo Echenique has been replaced by the Canarian deputy Alberto Rodríguez as Secretary for organization (third-in-line after Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero) and that Ïñigo Errejón no longer appears as member in the party website.

The "serious doubts" towards the PP of the Cs candidate Francisco Igea favour an approach to the PSOE in Castile and León. PSOE candidate José Luis Tudanca encouraged Igea to reach an agreement in the view of their "multiple coincidences". PP governs the region since 1987.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez opens the negotiations for his investiture today. He will hold consecutive meetings (in this order) with Pablo Iglesias, Albert Rivera and Pablo Casado. The strategy of the governing party is to direct pressure over opposition leaders making them responsible for the stability of the country. The alternatives are a PSOE government or the repetition of elections, warned José Luis Äbalos from the PSOE's HQs. Socialists take for granted a repetition of elections would entail the downfall of UP and a decrease for Cs. Ábalos stressed that Spaniards won't forgive those who jeopardize stability. Today Pedro Sánchez will demand political actors "generosity", "patriotism" and "giving in for the common good". "It's important that Spaniards know which parties have constructive willingness (...) and which ones want to kick the table". PP and Cs will be pressed to abstain in the investiture vote, invoking the 2016 precedent when most of the PSOE MPs abstained to allow the investiture of Mariano Rajoy (Pedro Sánchez opposed and was ousted from leadership shortly thereafter). Sánchez claims abstention would be an act of consistency and offers PP and Cs "big agreements" on pensions, regional funding and infrastructures.

PSOE leadership rules out the "Navarrese Path" for investiture. The abstention of the  UPN deputies in Congress would be useless, because it would entail the withdrawal of PNV support. Right now the PSOE is willing to allow NA+ (UPN, PP and Cs) to govern Pamplona, replacing the acting local government led by EH Bildu. Results in Pamplona: NA+ 13 councilors, EH Bildu 7, PSOE 5 and GBai 2. The PSOE won't support EH Bildu mayoral candidates in Navarre and refuses to negotiate with Basque separatists. Despite this, PSOE candidate María Chivite won't give up her attempt to govern the region. Chivite would need the support of GBai (Basque nationalists) and the leftist parties to succeed, as well as the abstention of EH Bildu. Composition of regional parliament: NA+ 20 seats, PSOE 11, GBai 9, EH Bildu 7, Podemos2, IU 1.

Socialists maintain their rejection to a coalition government with Unidas Podemos, arguing they would consider the possibility if both parties had a majority. PSOE and UP only have 165 seats, while majority is set at 176. They also argue that a coalition with UP would substract the support of parties like CC. They also dislike some Iglesias' statements claiming that UP would be vigilant in order to ensure progressive policies are implemented. However Pablo Iglesias is not willing to give up. The Podemos leader says he won't give blank cheques to Pedro Sánchez. "If we are not in the government, the PSOE would agree with us some social measures" merely cosmetic "to decide the broad policy lines with the right".Iglesias says Podemos is not seeking "State ministries" such as Foreign Affairs or Defense, but ministries with social portfolios.

Today begins the investiture debate at the Valencian regional parliament. PSOE agreed on the dead line with Compromís and UP that coalition partners will have a half of the cabinet seats. There are differences on the division of management areas. PSOE candidate Ximo Puig seeks reelection as premier of the Valencian Community, while Compromís leader Mónica Oltra will be the deputy premier. After the 2015 elections Podemos signed a confidence and supply agreement with PSOE and Compromís, but this time UP (Podemos+IU) enters the regional government.

PP candidate in Ceuta and acting mayor-president of the autonomous city Juan Jesús Vivas seals an agreement with the PSOE, rejecting the agreement between PP and Vox national leaderships to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority. "We don't want to know anything about Vox", said Vivas. Socialists will vote the investiture of the  PP candidate, but they won't enter the local government.

Meanwhile Cs leader in Madrid Igancio Aguado lifted the ban and met with Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio, in order to agree who is the speaker of the Madrid regional assembly and composition of the bureau.This meeting could pave the way for a three way agreement between PP, Cs and Vox.

Cs national leadership warns Castile and León candidate Francisco Igea that PP is the preferential partner for coalitions.

PNV and PSOE sign a deal that could seize 8 municipalities in the Basque Country from EH Bildu
 

[Velasco]

PSOE and UP agreed to negotiate a "government of cooperation"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/11/inenglish/1560259078_292095.html

After meeting on Tuesday for an hour and 20 minutes, the parties announced they have agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation.”

Complex negotiations will now begin on the exact nature of this cooperation. For the PSOE, this means negotiating with Iglesias’s party to decide who will take ministerial positions. “We will look for formulas for a plural government with people who are leaders in their fields. [Pablo] Iglesias has told the prime minister that he will consider it. It is an inclusive government, not a closed one like a coalition government,” said PSOE parliamentary spokesperson Adriana Lastra after the meeting.

For Unidas Podemos, it means that they will have a say in who is named minister. At the press conference, Lastra did not rule out the possibility that Iglesias will be part of the executive. “In the last 12 months, we have shown that the left knows how to understand one another,” she said(...)

So "government of cooperation" appears to be a rhetoric compromise solution rather than an innovative formula for governance. Both parties agreed they need to reach an agreement.

As expected, PP and Cs leaders rejected to abstain in the investiture. The goal to achieve an investiture without the cooperation of ERC seems unattainable. After the first round of conversations with the parliamentary groups -excluding EH Bildu and Vox- the socialists reached an agreement with the PRC (Cantabria regionalists). However the spokepersons of the regionalist parties CC (Canaries) ad UPN (Navarre) stated their rejection. In the case of CC, deputy Ana Oramas said again her party will never support any government participated by Podemos, either coalition or programmatic agreement. In the case of UPN, they'll vote against if socialists govern Navarre. So the positions are fixed and we haven't moved from the starting point. Pedro Sánchez can secure 173 votes (3 short from majority) reaching agreements with UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. In order to be elected in the second investiture vote, it's necessary that at least one of the separatist parties (ERC, JxCAT and EH Bildu) abstains.

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders at the Supreme Court is remitted for decision. The defendants call for a political solution of the crisis in their final speeches

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/13/inenglish/1560408638_344315.html

The 12 Catalan separatist leaders on trial for rebellion and other crimes in connection with the unilateral secession attempt of October 2017 made their final statements at the last hearing on Wednesday.

All of them insisted that they are political prisoners on trial because of their ideas. They said their only aim had been to give Catalan citizens a chance to express themselves through a referendum, and called for political dialogue with the central government in Madrid as the only way out of the conflict.

The sentence is expected in October and the political repercussions will be huge. Prosecutors have used tortuous legal arguments to support the charge of rebellion and the existence of the "necessary violence". The defendants admit they are guilty of disobedience, but they tried to minimize the i,importance of the unilateral declaration of independence and the previous events in September and October 2017.

BComú and PSC will negotiate a preliminary agreement that would allow Ada Colau to be reelected as Mayor of Barcelona, with the "unconditional support" of the councilors loyal to Manuel Valls.

Meanwhile Cs confirms its total allegiance to the rightwing bloc. PP, Cs and Vox are aimed at reaching agreements to govern the regions of Madrid and Murcia. In the case of Madrid, the Colón Triumvirate secured the control of the regional assembly's bureau, seizing one seat from Más Madrid to Vox (Errejón said they will appeal to the Constitutional Court). PP and Vox agreed the far right party will be rewarded with some regional secretariats, as Cs still opposes that Vox gets cabinet seats in regional governments. PP and Cs reached a preliminary agreement to govern Castile and León as well., despite the initial reluctance of Cs candidate Francisco Igea.

CC offered the PP to lead regional government in the Canary Islands.

The PP-Cs regional government reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia that allows to pass this year's budget. It entails concessions on ideological and "cultural battle" affairs, such as renaming gender-based violence (now it's called "domestic violence") or changes in historical memory regarding victims of the Civil War (limitation to "actions in mass graves, recovery and tracking of mass graves and DNA bank") and the "enhancement of the discovery of America and subsequent exploits"

[Velasco]

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

José Luis Martínez- Almeida (PP) replaces Manuela Carmena as Mayor of Madrid with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. Begoña Villacís (Cs) will be Deputy Mayor. PP signed separate deals with Cs and Vox. The details are published in media and maybe I could translate some measures tomorrow in case anyone's interested

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/06/15/madrid/1560585242_658455.html

There's nothing illegal in the decision to work with Vox, says the new mayor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/15/spanish-parties-far-right-vox-madrid

Martínez-Almeida succeeds Manuela Carmena, a leftwing former judge whose four-year stint as mayor was marked by a commitment to diversity and the environment.

The new mayor shrugged off criticism of his party’s decision to work with Vox, challenging anyone “to find anything that lies outside the legal order” in his deals.

But he also promised to serve all the people of Madrid.

“Between us, we will build Madrid,” said Martínez-Almeida. “We won’t leave behind those who want a more open Madrid. We want to write the future and not remember the past.”

Carmena congratulated her successor and reminded him of the importance of both feminism and democracy.

“We need to look after democracy because we know what it cost to bring democracy to this country,” she said. “It took so much, such an effort and so many lives that we cannot forget it.”  

Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú) reelected Mayor of Barcelona with the support of BComú, PSC and 3 independent councilors of the Manuel Valls list (the 3 Cs councilors abstained)

While Madrid, Zaragoza and the towns in Galicia have been lost, arcelona and Cadiz remain as strongholds of the alternative left (besides Valencia, where Joan Ribó of Compromís was reelected).

"Power to the people": renewables revival in Barcelona and Cádiz

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/14/power-to-the-people-how-spanish-cities-took-control-of-energy

 After a close fight, Barcelona’s radical mayor, Ada Colau, is expected to take office for a second term on Saturday, vindicating her often-criticised policies, which have included making sure all the city’s municipal buildings and services run on renewable energy.  

In the nearby Badalona the PSC candidate Alex Pastor was elected Mayor with the support of his party, the ERC-Guanyem list of former mayor Dolors Sabater, En Comú Podem and JxCAT. PP candidate and former mayor Xavier García Albiol expected to be elected, as his list came first and there was no alternative coalition to oust him. However Dolors Sabater stepped aside and all the councilors of her list voted for the PSC candidate, despite nationalists got more votes than socialists in elections. García Albiol is well known for his anti-immigrant stances and ran a personalist campaign without PP banners...

[Velasco]

The personal factor often weighs more than ideology in local elections and Zamora is a clear example. IU mayor Francisco Guarido forged his reputation as a hard-working opposition councilor. The sapping of the PP local government and the infighting within local PSOE paved the way for Guarido in 2015. Guarido remains loyal to the IU banner and rejects alliances with Podemos. His work as mayor was approved by the neighbours of this middle-sized conservative town in Castile and Guarido was easily reelected this year. The only IU mayor in a provincial capital was a school janitor before entering politics.

[Velasco]

Manuela Carmena resigned her council seat this morning and quits politics. The former Mayor of Madrid met the press briefly, thanked journalists their kindness and told them she is no longer a public figure, took a look to the flowers at the balcony in Plaza Mayor and continued her stroll.

[Velasco]

Manuel Valls had already warned he would break with Cs once the deals with Vox in Madrid and elsewhere crystallised. Claiming now that Cs breaks with Valls because he voted for Colau, as he had warned already, strikes to me another sample of political cynicism.

The Valls move prevented that Barcelona becomes the capital of a non-existing republic ruled by a "reborn separatist" who displays the zeal of the convert. Valls chose what he considers the lesser evil. That's what politics is about. I never liked Valls very much, but in my opinion his decision is worthy of praise.

Right now there are problems within the Colón Triumvirate in Madrid, because Vox is demanding its share in local government and more visibility against the Cs wishes...

[Velasco]

Ciudadanos breaks with Manuel Valls

https://www.politico.eu/article/spains-ciudadanos-manuel-valls/#superComments

Spain’s liberal Ciudadanos has cut ties with Manuel Valls after the former French prime minister supported the leftist Ada Colau for Barcelona mayor.

Valls — who was born in Barcelona, grew up in France and is a French citizen — had himself run for mayor under a common banner with Ciudadanos, but Colau’s party and a separatist party came out on top.

Valls said he and his representatives supported Colau when city hall members voted for a new mayor over the weekend because he didn’t want a separatist in office, but Ciudadanos representatives opted to cast blank ballots, according to El País.

On Monday, a spokeswoman for Ciudadanos said it had officially cut ties with Valls and its representatives would no longer work with him, arguing there was “very little difference” between Colau and the separatists’ mayoral candidate.

Though Colau is not a separatist, Ciudadanos has taken issue with her support for Catalan secessionists jailed during a trial over their push for independence.

"We were right [not to support Colau] when we saw that her first decision was to put on the yellow ribbon," said Ciudadanos spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas, referring to a symbol that has been worn to show support for the jailed politicians and which Colau put up at city hall. Arrimadas said that if a pro-separatist politician became mayor, they would have done the same.

“We want our own voice in the city hall of Barcelona,"Arrimadas said.

The relationship between Albert Rivera and Manuel Valls is strained since months ago, to the point the Cs leader didn't participate in the Barcelona campaign with his star candidate. Rivera and Valls haven't talked in months, being Inés Arrimadas the main contact between the former French PM and the Cs leadership. The cause of disagreement is obviously the association between Cs and Vox that began after regional elections in Andalusia. Valls attended the Colón Square rally in February,  but refused to come on stage with the Vox representatives. He claimed being there in defence of the Spanish Constitution and not to attack the government. Valls already threatened to break with Cs once the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid crystallized. In previous days he exchanged praising tweets with acting Aragon premier Javier Lambán (PSOE). There are rumours pointing to the possible creation of a new centrist force in Catalonia led or participated by Valls, but they have been ruled out. In any case there's an empty space in Catalan politics ranging from pragmatic nationalists to moderate Catalanists wanting to remain in Spain. Middle-ground options on the national question, to the left and the right side of the spectrum, have been overwhelmed by the polarization created by the procés (Catalan separatist drive)

[Velasco]

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.

I had some hopes placed in Arrimadas, but I lost my faith in her. Cs is not as monolithic as it appears, there are some "social-liberals" who are not very happy with the coalition policies. Party founder Francisco de Carreras is demanding Rivera a correction, in order that Cs abstains in the investiture of Sánchez. Allegedly there is a strong pressure from the business world in the same direction, because PSOE-Cs is preferable for economic powers to a government dependant on Podemos and ERC. However, Rivera clings to the idea of becoming the leader of the Spanish Right and his leadership in Cs is undisputed. Arrimadas is not showing signs of independence, her move to Madrid didn't pay off and weakened Cs in Catalonia. Manuel Valls could try to fill that void, if rumours on a new party "inspired"* by him are true. Apparently the business world that backed Rivera is now in love with Valls...

*Valls would be the one of the mentors of the new party, but not the leader. Apparently the proposed name is Lliga Democratica ("Democratic League") and it'd be a centre-right catalanist force. Councilor Eva Parera could be one of the visible leaders and Valls would remain formally as the leader of his local party Barcelona pel Canvi. In fact, the BpC municipal group is reduced to Valls and Parera, because Celestino Corbacho joined the Cs group today as an independent.

[Velasco]

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.

PP rewarded Cs Burgos and Palencia, yes. PSOE and Cs made some weird agreements in certain municipalities of Castile-La Mancha, but such alliances were the exception and the deals with PP and Vox were the norm. The case of Palencia pales in comparison with the amazing events that took place in Melilla, though. The longtime mayor-president of that North African autonomous city, the PP candidate Juan José Imbroda, was replaced by the only Cs councilor Eduardo de Castro. The Cs candidate was backed by the Coalition for Melilla (CpM) and the PSOE, while Imbroda was backed by his party and Vox. The inaugural session at the Melilla Town Hall was tense, some people called "traitor" to the new mayor and Imbroda (19 years in office) bullied him when they crossed paths.

Results in Melilla:

PP 37.8% 10 councilors
CpM 30.6% 8 councilors
PSOE 14.4% 4 councilors
Vox 7.8% 2 councilors
Cs 5.5% 1 councilor 

[Velasco]

Manuel Valls: “With Vox you end up getting your hands dirty, and to some extent, your soul”

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/20/inenglish/1561019292_995673.html

Former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls admits he is upset that the center-right party Ciudadanos (Citizens) has broken the coalition that was formed nine months ago to support Valls’ bid for Barcelona mayor. On Monday, Ciudadanos announced that its 13-member executive committee had decided to break with the Barcelona-born politician for helping Ada Colau, of the leftist Barcelona en Comú party (the regional branch of Podemos), get reelected as the mayor of Barcelona – a decision Valls made to stop City Hall falling into the hands of the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC).

But the tensions run deeper. Valls has been a vocal critic against making deals with the far-right party Vox, whose support Ciudadanos and the right-wing Popular Party (PP) need if they are to take power in several municipal and regional governments – including the Madrid region.

The first moment of tension arose over a protest in Madrid’s central Colón square in February called by the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox to demand the resignation of acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE). Valls’ team had said he would not attend the event, but a few hours later, facing pressure from Ciudadanos, he confirmed he would be present to defend the Spanish Constitution – not to push for Sánchez’s resignation. Valls also refused to take the stage to have his photo taken alongside members of the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox (...)

PSOE reached an agreement with New Canaries, Podemos and the Casimiro Curbelo's group to govern the Canary Islands. Ängel Víctor Torres will be the second socialist premier since the establishment of the Canarian autonomous government. This deal puts an end to 26 years of governments led by the Canary Coalition (CC), whose establishment was the result the amalgamation of several parties (AIC, CDS, ICAN and AM) that seized power through a no confidence motion against socialist premier Jerónimo Saavedra in 1993. The result of the 2019 elections placed the cacique of La Gomera island Casimiro Curbelo as the kingmaker. Curbelo is a former socialist who left the party in 2011 after an incident involving the senator for La Gomera and his son in a sauna located in Madrid. He could have supported the CC candidate and acting premier Fernando Clavijo, since his group has been propping up the CC minority government alongside PP. Additionally Curbelo and Clavijo have befriended. However, Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an affair that took place during his tenure as Mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife). For that reason Cs rejected to back a deal between CC, PP and ASG with Clavijo as candidate. Given that a CC-led government lacked a majority and the last hour desperate attempts to negotiate an alternative failed, Curbelo decided to seal a pact with the Left. This is a major setback for CC, in addition to the loss of Santa Cruz de Tenerife and La laguna (both elected PSOE mayors) and the possible loss of several Cabildos including Tenerife.

Similarly PSOE made a preliminary agreement to govern the Balearic Islands with Podemos and the "eco-sovereigntist" MÉS.

PSOE and UP will form a coalition government in La Rioja.

The agreement between PP and Cs in Castile and León is almost sealed. This deal entails that PP awarded Cs with the mayoralty of Palencia and Burgos, but the latter elected a PSOE mayor because Vox failed. The agreement with PP was imposed by the Cs national leadership, despite the regional candidate preferred a deal with the PSOE and put an end to 32 years of conservative governments.

The situation in Navarre is complex. Socialists are trying to reach an agreement with Geroa Bai (moderate Basque nationalists), Podemos and IU. This coalition needs the collaboration of EH Bildu (Basque separatists), either affirmative first vote or abstention in the second vote. The PSOE rejects to negotiate with EH Bildu, a political force that bears the stigma of being the "heir of ETA". Dealing with EH Bildu in Navarre creates problems to the PSOE in the rest of Spain, so negotiations are always very difficult. However, the parties involved managed to reach a complicated formula to negotiate the election of the speaker (GBai) and the composition of the regional parliament's bureau, avoiding direct contact between PSOE and EH Bildu. This could be the prelude of a similar arrangement in the election of the regional government, which would help to secure the PNV support in the investiture of Pedro Sánchez but also would entail the UPN deputies vote against.

[Velasco]

Cs parliamentary spokesman for economic affairs Toni Roldán leaves the party, arguing that its turn to the right represents a high cost for Spain. Roldán considers that Cs is betraying its founding principles: reformism, regeneration or fight against corruption and fight against nationalism. Roldán is an economist disciple of Luis Garicano, the leader of the Cs delegation in the EP. He was member of the Cs executive committee, responsible for the economic platform and deputy for Barcelona.  Major setback for Albert Rivera and his strategy

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez heads investiture debate in July without having secured the UP support. Negotiations between PSOE and its "preferential partner" stalled, as both parties have different points of view concerning the elephant in the room, that is to say, the entry of Pablo Iglesias and his fellows in the government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/27/inenglish/1561623443_293514.html

  The political situation in Spain remains deadlocked with the Socialist Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos group still unable to reach an agreement that would allow Pedro Sánchez to be reelected as prime minister.

  Sánchez and Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias had agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation” but are refusing to budge from their respective positions over what this means. The PSOE leader is willing to offer Iglesias mid-level government positions but the anti-austerity chief wants Cabinet positions that will reflect his party’s weight relative to the PSOE in parliament (42 seats versus 123) – an idea Sánchez has rejected.

In an effort to break the deadlock, the acting prime minister announced that he will set a date for the investiture vote with the speaker of Congress, Meritxell Batet, on Tuesday. While the government says no decision has yet been made, the vote is likely to happen on July 16.

But the move has not had the desired effect. On Wednesday, Iglesias warned that the first investiture vote, where an absolute majority of 176 votes is needed, will fail. “An agreement is closer than it seems, although we will have to wait two-and-a-half months,” he said (...)

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are playing the "chicken game": there are two cars in collision course coming from the opposite sides of the road, the one who gets out first loses. Both have their reasons to defend their positions. Socialists feel uncomfortable with a coalition government for various reasons including lack of tradition, personal factors (focused on Pablo Iglesias) and affairs of state (crisis in Catalonia and differences between parties on the way to handle the situation). The main reason why Pablo Iglesias plays this game is that his presrnce in a coalition government could be his salvation. It would help him to silence opposition within Podemos and allies, as well as mitigate the effects of the bad electoral results. Also, being in the governnent would pave the way for a peaceful succession of Pablo Iglesias, to be replaced by his partner Irene Montero in Podemos leadership.

Apparently there are different points of view in the Pedro Sánchez entourage, regarding the possibility of fresh elections in autumn. Spin doctor Iván Redondo likes the idea, but minister and right hand José Luis Abalos is not so enthusiasmed

[Velasco]

Exactly what is Sánchez's concern about having UP as part of the government?  Would he not want that so they share in the "blame" for any difficult decisions ?

I guess the main reason is that there's no tradition of coalition governments at national level. PSOE is the party that has been more years in power since 1977, when the first elections of the present democratic period took place. Socialists governed between 1982 to 1996, then from 2004 to 2011 and they came back to power in June 2018. They have governed always alone, with majorities in parliament in the 1980s and with confidence and supply agreements later. So we are talking about a party with government experience and accostumed to exercise power without sharing it. On the contrary, Podemos is a party founded five years ago with no experience in government (except at local level, with different electoral formulas in Madrid or Barcelona). The dazzling Podemos outbreak disrupted the political chessboard and threatened the PSOE's hegemony in the Spanish Left. I suspect some socialists still see Podemos as an intruder. Additionally, the arrogant attitude of Pablo Iglesias during the failed negotiations in 2016 doesn't help. Now Iglesias is adopting a more humble attitude and his demands sound more reasonable, as the balance of forces is less favourable for his interests. The personal relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is much better now, particularly since the Podemos leader played a key role in the success of the no confidence motion that ousted Mariano Rajoy*. However, Iglesias is a man with a strong personality and Sánchez doesn't like the idea of having him as Deputy PM. Such a perspective makes him nervous. Other possible reasons are pressures from economic powers**, the differences between PSOE and Podemos on Catalonia or that the coalition with Podemos doesn't have the numbers and would have to rely on the support of ERC or Bildu.  

*Pablo Iglesias forced Albert Rivera to make a strategic mistake with the consequence that Pedro Sánchez secured the PNV support, necessary to win the no confidence vote. The Podemos leader announced that, in case the Pedro Sánchez's attempt failed, he would submit another motion with the only purpose to call elections. Albert Rivera backed enthusiastically the Iglesias' proposal, as he was impatient because Cs was leading in the polls a year ago. However, the perspective of a Cs victory frightened the PNV because of the centralism of Rivera and his opposition to the Basque fiscal system. Despite the PNV voted the Rajoy's budget the previous week, the fear of Rivera made Basque nationalists to vote the no confidence motion.

**Cs leader Albert Rivera is being pressed already from various sides to allow the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, but his personal ambition is stronger than reasons of state and other arguments concerning the problematic relationship with Vox

[Velasco]

The CIS poll is a joke.

There is a Sigma Dos poll with a vote estimation more in line to the result of the EP elections

PSOE 32.6%, PP 19.4%, UP 13.2%, Cs 13.1%, Vox 8%, ERC 4.2%

The last Invymark poll is better for the PSOE. However, I think a repetition of elections is too risky for Pedro Sánchez.  Election fatigue will likely boost abstention and hurt socialists. A scenario similar to Andalusia is unlikely in a general election, but a higher abstention won't help to create majorities.

There are problems within the Colón Triumvirate. Negotiations in the Madrid region are stalled and the PP candidate in Murcia didn't pass the first investiture vote because Vox didn't back him. The party led by Santiago Abascal demands three way negotiations and that oranges stop pretending that Cs and Vox are not talking. The PP candidate in Madrid already said that Cs and Vox are in contact on a daily basis. Isabel Diaz Ayuso is visibly exhausted of this game.

[Velasco]

ox voted against the investiture of Fernando López Miras, the PP candidate in the region of Murcia, preventing his election. The reason is that Vox demanded to PP and Cs a publc meeting and a basic programatic agreement signed by the three parties. Cs agreed to the first condition and the parties held a meeting this morning. Albert Rivera remained in silence, but Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas and deputy Juan Carlos Girauta stated that in neither case they will reach agrements with Vox. They attended the meeting only to "have a coffee" and explain Vox representatives the deal between PP and Cs. These statements outraged Vox and provoked the withdrawal of its representatives from the meeting.

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

The tensions surrounding the ongoing negotiations in the Madrid and Murcia regions to choose a new premier, and the pressure on far-right party Vox to support the candidates chosen by the conservative Popular Party (PP), exploded on Wednesday on social media, with one tweet that even contained personal insults aimed at the leader of the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) party.

The controversy was sparked by a message posted on Twitter from the official account of Vox, an ultra-nationalist group that picked up considerable support at the recent national, regional and municipal polls. “The height of nerve,” read the post, which was aimed at the Ciudadanos party. “Tell that scared, shameless boss of yours to forget about a cordon sanitaire, to stop kissing [French President Emmanuel] Macron’s ass and to let you sit down at a table and reach agreements with normal people. And if not, go and do a deal with the PSOE [Socialist Party], which is what you want anyway.”
The message referred to the unwillingness of Ciudadanos to enter into direct talks with Vox, despite both it and the PP needing the votes of the far-right group in order to form a government in regions such as Madrid and Murcia, thus keeping the left from taking power. Vox has already lent its support to the PP and Ciudadanos in Andalusia to form a government, and in Madrid City Hall. But talks are going nowhere in both Madrid and Murcia, with the clock ticking to the moment when fresh elections will have to be called.

The controversial tweet was sent in response to Ciudadanos’ organization secretary, Fran Hervías, who had criticized Vox for starting to “paralyze institutions by aligning itself with [left-wing] Podemos and the PSOE,” in allusion to its vote against the PP’s candidate for regional premier in Murcia, Fernando López Miras, and its refusal to support Isabel Díaz Ayuso for the same role in Madrid. “Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias must be delighted with their new partners,” the message added, in reference to the leaders of the PSOE and Podemos, respectively.

Shortly after the message was sent, Ciudadano sent a light-hearted reply. “Wow, classy. Congratulations, you are now a summer hit,” the Twitter post read, accompanied by a music video from a group called Locomía, singing their song Loco vox (or, “crazy vox”).

LocoVox tune by the dancing guys from Ibiza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=197&v=75nOiN6qDH0

[Velasco]

The CIS poll points something that is relevant. There is a growing concern among citizens over the state of Spanish politics

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562225341_303951.html

Politicians and political parties are considered one of the biggest problems facing Spain, according to the June survey from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS). The poll found that politicians rank behind only unemployment on the list of Spaniards’ concerns. Almost a third of those interviewed – 32.1%, four percentage points more than in May – say they are worried about the country’s politicians. This is the highest level since 1985.

The results come as political deadlock in Spain continues to deepen, more than two months after the April 28 general election. Although acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), has set a date for an investiture vote, he does not currently count on the necessary support from other political parties to be voted back into office by deputies in Congress. One of the main stumbling blocks has been the political stalemate between the Socialists and the left-wing anti-austerity group Unidas Podemos, whose 42 votes are needed to ensure Sánchez’s investiture bid is successful.

Up until a decade ago, around 10% of Spaniards were concerned about politicians but this figure began to rise in the middle of 2009 during the financial crisis. Since then, the downward trend has continued.

According to the June results, almost two-thirds (62.5%) of Spaniards say unemployment is the biggest national problem, followed closely by politics.

Political discontent reached similar peaks (above 30%) on two occasions in 2012 and 2013, just before the emergence of new political parties. After the repeat general elections of 2016, concern over politicians began to rise again until reaching the historic level in June (...)

Will Cs turn to PSOE?

Right now it's very unlikely. At this point it's more a personal question for Albert Rivera than anything. The "social-liberal" faction favourable to deal with PSOE is small and the resignation of Toni Roldán weakened it further. Additionally, Rivera will purge the few remaining dissident elements from party leadership. The Vox insults are unacceptable, but they have every reason to complain at Cs cynicism. Regardless I loathe the party's ideology and proposals, I understand their anger when they are treated by CS as servants who must hide when visits come home. Anyway I think PP, Cs and Vox will find the way to retain Madrid and Murcia.

[Velasco]

Why is there such personal loathing between Rivera and Sanchez? I never understood how it started, or when exactly things went to hell between the two of them after the 2016 PSOE-C's deal.

It's a good question and there are different answers, depending on whom are you asking about. By the time of the PSOE-Cs deal Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera had a fluid relationship and that helped to overcome the difficulties in negotiations. PSOE and Cs acknowledged the deal was not easy to forge and both made concessions "for the common good". However, PSOE and Cs lacked a majority in Congress and the investiture of Sánchez failed due to the opposition of Podemos. The party led by Pablo Iglesias was excluded from negotiations because of the explicit veto opposed by Cs (and the implicit veto of the PSOE's establishment). In any case, Cs deemed the deal with PSOE as dead letter once the failure of the investiture led to new elections. June 2016 elections strengthened Rajoy and were disappointing to Iglesias and Rivera, while Sánchez retained the leadership of opposition by a narrow margin.

The relationshop between Sánchez and Rivera began to cool down since then, due to their differences on the Rajoy's investiture. Despite Rivera promised during the campaign he'd never support Rajoy, the Cs leader changed his mind for the sake of stability. Sánchez, however, remained firm in his opposition to Rajoy despite the heavy pressure on socialists to abstain. "No is No" was the motto of the socialist leader those days. Rivera accused Sánchez of blocking the country. Finally tensions within PSOE led to the replacement of Sánchez by a provisional leadership promoted by the party's establishment. Shortly after, Pedro Sánchez resigned his seat in parliament and his personal contact with Rivera was reduced to the minimum. When Pedro Sánchez won the leadership contest in May 2017, Rivera congratulated him via social networks. Days before Rivera warned Sánchez that he could not rely on Cs "to govern with nationalists". Despite Sánchez was regarded a moderate in his party when he won leadership by the first time, he campaigned on a leftist platform the second time, stating his willingness to reach deals with Podemos and peripheral nationalists. This turn was not motivated by ideological reasons, rather his motivations were tactical: seek the support of party grassroots against the establishment on the one hand, and counter the Podemos' threat from the left on the other hand. In a meeting that took place in December 2017, on the anniversary of the Constitution, Sánchez said: "I love Rivera, but he says I'm a Podemos supporter". Rivera replied to Sánchez: "you owe me an investiture". On the other hand, as the crisis in Catalonia worsened by Autumn 2017 and Cs rocketed in opinion polls, Sánchez hardened his stance against separatists. He agreed with Mariano Rajoy the implementation of article 155 limited in time and with immediate elections, against the wishes of hardliners in PP and Cs. Cs achieved a big success with Inés Arrimadas in the Catalan elections taking place on December 21, although it wasn't enough to govern the region.

 The no confidence motion against Rajoy in the following year broke up the personal relationship between Sánchez and Rivera. Both leaders agreed the court ruling in the PP's corruption scheme had to be the end of the Rajoy's career. However, Sánchez and Rivera had great differences on the purpose and the modus operandi. Sánchez argued his role as leader of the opposition entitled him to be the alternative candidate to Rajoy, while Rivera demanded a motion with an "instrumental candidate" aimed to call elections as soon as possible. Some people argue that Rivera felt outraged when Sánchez revealed details of private conversations between José Luis Äbalos (PSOE) and José Manuel Villegas (Cs) during their fierce debate in Congress. Namely, Sánchez revealed that Villegas advanced to Äbalos that Cs was not going to vote the 2019 budget, nor he expenditure ceiling the new government had to pass weeks later. Pedro Sánchez argues in his book 'Manual of resistance' that Rivera is not reliable and devotes himself to "intoxicate". The PSOE leader says Rivera didn't want to talk with him and derived contacts to their seconds in line, while beginning the narrative that Sánchez doesn't talk with Rivera because the aim of socialists is to deal with separatists. What is clear is the no confidence motion and its success outmaneuvered Rivera in a moment his party was leading the opinion polls. Since then, Rivera has been the most fierce opponent of Sánchez. The personal contact between both leaders is virtually non existent. After elections, the Cs leader attended meetings at La Moncloa visibly uncomfortable and he even rejected the last meeting offer a couple of days ago. Rivera's second in line José Manuel Villegas is the man in Cs who contacts the Sánchez's lieutenants José Luis Äbalos and Adriana Lastra.

[Velasco]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

The Vox people has reasons to feel pissed at Cs hypocrisy, but the vulgar language of that tweet  is characteristic of bullies.

Cs annoys everybody, on the other hand. Yesterday a Cs delegation led by Inés Arrimadas was escorted out the Gay Pride parade in Madrid. The presence of Cs members provoked protests. There was a performance of people dressed in the Handmaid's Tale fashion (with orange robes) and a sit-in that caused a 1 1/2 delay in the parade. Some angry people screamed and insulted the Cs people and the oranges replied. The organizers said they called the police to prevent serious incidents and luckily nobody was injured. Obviously he motivation of protests is that Cs is making deals with Vox, a party that is openly against the LGTB movement. It's like Cs people was living in a parallel reality: oranges claim they make no deals with Vox, but they can't get their share of power without the far right. Politics is about making choices and oranges refuse to clarify their position. They want the Vox support without staining their hands in an open negotiation. Likewise they want to attend a gay parade as an organization, while they are dealing with a homophobic party through the back door. Nobody believes them because they are not credible.

[Velasco]

Funny you say that since I'm seeing Errejón tweeting about the issue criticizing the C's. He was openly an admirer of Hugo Chávez, and chavismo is a notoriously anti-LGBT movement.

Errejón and Iglesias have distanced themselves from chavismo. The leader of Más Madrid devoted his doctoral thesis to Evo Morales, btw. There is a lot of people in the left who admired Chávez years ago, including some personal friends of mine. They thought the deceased Venezuelan leader was a hope for Latin America and later changed their minds, particularly since the situation in Venezuela worsened with Maduro. I think everybody has the right to evolve and change. I was always skeptic about Chávez, but I try not to make recriminations to my friends saying "I told you". Likewise, I won't do it with Errejón when he's now positioned far from Venezuelan coordinates. He and his followers are unquestionably committed to women and LGTB rights. On the contrary, Vox is openly against the vindications of women and LGTB movements. Dealing with Vox in the present time represents a threat for their rights. It's legitimate to criticize Cs for that, especially when oranges claim they are a liberal party advocating LGTB rights. While I regret oranges were insulted, I understand the anger of many people. This year the Gay Pride was a massive outcry against the far right and the presence of Cs as political organization was rather unfathomable, since oranges made the conscious choice to ally with Vox through the back door. PP was more consistent and didn't attend the parade, although some PP members attended individually (which is great, because LGTB people voting for the right is represented). On the other hand, it's unacceptable that Arrimadas accused the openly gay Interior minister to have provoked the incidents. I concur with Grande Marlaska that deals with the far right have consequences: they affect the credibility of the Vox allies within the LGTB community

[Velasco]

Madrid Central low emissions scheme reinstated on judge's orders. The rightwing council fails to reverse the policy of former mayor Manuela Carmena

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/08/inenglish/1562569693_221178.html

Fines for entering the Madrid Central low-emissions zone were reactivated at midnight on Sunday, after a judge overturned a decision by the new city council to suspend the scheme.

Mayor José Luis Martínez-Almeida, of the conservative Popular Party (PP), took the decision to temporarily halt the fines for vehicles that entered the central area, backed by his partners in City Hall, center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens), and the far-right party Vox, upon whose votes the PP needed to take power and will rely on to pass legislation.

However, the move caused widespread anger among residents of the Spanish capital, prompting a street protest last week as well as hitting the headlines around the world, with Madrid becoming the first major European city to actually roll back a measure aimed at improving pollution levels. A year ago, the Madrid Central project was instrumental in sparing Spain legal action by the European Commission before the EU Court of Justice. At that point, the Spanish capital had been exceeding European pollution thresholds for nearly a decade.

On Friday a Madrid court took the precautionary measure of suspending the mayor’s moratorium to, in the words of the judge, avoid pollution from rising “without any kind of controls.” City Hall has been given three days to present its defense for the move. The decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by a body known as Platform in Defense of Madrid Central, which is made up of more than 80 organizations, including environmental NGOs Ecologists in Action and Greenpeace (...)

Today Pedro Sánchez opens a new round of conversations with little expectations. Spanish PM will meet Pablo Casado (PP) and Pablo Iglesias (UP) today, while Albert Rivera (Cs) rejected days ago the Sánchez's offer to hold a meeting. Sánchez and Iglesias haven't moved from their initial positions. PSOE leader claims that differences on Catalonia and the veto of possible allies are reasons to oppose the entry of UP members in government. Socialists issued a proposal to form a minority government, offering Podemos a programmatic agreement. The main concession would be the possible appointment of independent ministers close to Podemos, or the appointment of UP members in the second level of government (secretaries of state, general directors). Pablo Iglesias stated the programmatic offer was insufficient and somewhat regressive with regards to the PSOE-UP budget deal. Iglesias said he would sign a document committing himself the official line in Catalonia and proposed the coalition government is voted alongside the investiture of Sánchez, promising that he would give up his pretensions if the investiture fails. Socialists rejected the offer, among other things because there is a high chance that Sánchez passes the investiture on the grounds of a coalition agreement. PNV, Compromís and PRC would not oppose to a PSOE-UP coalition and ERC seems to be willing to allow the investiture.

Yesterday morning PP and Cs signed a deal to govern the region of Madrid, ignoring Vox again and provoking the indignation of party leader Santiago Abascal and regional spokeswoman Rocío Monasterio. PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso tweeted that she incorporated the Vox proposals to the agreement with Cs, as well she commits herself to fulfill and defend them. Monasterio deemed the PP-Cs agreement as "shameful", while Abascal demanded a three way meeting between him, Casado and Rivera. The Cs leader rejected the offer and proposed a meeting of the regional teams. Vox and Cs are playing another "chicken game". Regardless I think the attitude of Cs is cynic and hypocritical, maybe oranges will get what they want (power) given that Vox has few alternatives. In case the collision course continues, Madrid and Murcia could face new regional elections. Vox has little to gain in this scenario, but I doubt Cs will perform better in a repetition.

[Velasco]

Political deadlock increases the likelihood of fresh elections

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/09/inenglish/1562685123_273818.html

Long after Spaniards cast their votes in national, regional and local polls, political parties remain unable to reach governing deals, raising the chances of repeat elections. Most political actors describe the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust, while politicians blame one another for a deadlock that could force an exhausted electorate to return to the ballot boxes ahead of time.

At the national level, a Tuesday meeting between acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Pablo Iglesias of the leftist Unidas Podemos evidenced the divide between two politicians who have been trying to reach a governing agreement since the elections of April 28 (...)

The Socialists – who won the election but fell well short of an overall majority – are still refusing to consider a coalition government with Unidas Podemos.

The most that Sánchez’s party will consider is the possibility of placing independent candidates “of renown” in a few ministerial positions. As an alternative, Podemos members could be offered mid-level government posts.

But Iglesias – whose Unidas Podemos came in fourth at the election with 42 seats, compared with the PSOE’s 123 lawmakers – views this as insufficient.

“What Spain needs is a leftist coalition government, and we hope to convince the PSOE to be more flexible,” said the Podemos leader following the meeting. “[Sánchez’s] position defending a single-party government goes against what citizens voted for. And I think that sooner or later they will rectify.”

The Socialists quickly issued a reply. “Today’s meeting did not bear fruit; it seems that Iglesias is more concerned about Cabinet appointments than about policymaking,” said Adriana Lastra, the party vice-secretary and congressional spokesperson for the PSOE (...)

Deadlock in Madrid

Spanish politics are not just blocked at the national level. A similar scenario is on display in key regions such as Madrid, where a government is yet to be formed following the May 26 election.

The Madrid regional assembly is about to hold an investiture session without any actual candidate to invest with power, and a repeat election will be held if no cross-party agreement emerges before early September.

On Tuesday, the far-right Vox party informed the regional assembly leader that its 12 lawmakers will not support Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP’s nominee to head the Madrid region, at a vote scheduled for Wednesday.

“We are not going to support the [governing] agreement between the PP and Ciudadanos because it is dead,” said Vox’s own candidate to lead the region, Rocío Monasterio. Ever since it burst onto the political scene at the Andalusian elections of December 2018, Vox has been propping up right-wing governments in several parts of Spain without officially joining the executives.

Without Vox’s support, Ayuso has 56 votes (from her own PP and from the center-right Ciudadanos) compared with 64 for the socialist candidate Ángel Gabilondo, who is backed by the PSOE, Unidas Podemos and the leftist Más Madrid group. Neither figure is enough for a majority.

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

The possibility of a PP-Cs alliance in small-sized provinces in addition to further fragmentation in the left and lower turnout could be damaging, indeed. It is rumoured that Íñigo Errejón is planning to enter national politics, expanding Más Madrid ("Más País" would be the provisional name) and seeking regional alliances with parties like Compromís. It'd be a "New Left" party greatly inspired by AOC's "Green New Deal" that would compete against Pablo Iglesias and UP. A new election may precipitate the forming of this new alternative force. Errejón was great in the Madrid assembly, showing once again the huge contradictions of Cs regional leader Ugnacio Aguado. Cs is clearly the weakest link of the Spanish Right.

I read Enric Juliana regularly, but also the conservative analyst José Antonio Zarzalejos: he's former editor of ABC, very smart, dislikes Vox and distanced from Cs due to its cynic attitute towards the far right. Obviously Zarzalejos dislikes Podemos too and his analysis of the strategy followed by Sánchez and his spin doctor Iván Redondo is more favourable. I don't share his point of view, but it's interesting to read

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/notebook/2019-07-06/pedro-sanchez-ivan-redondo-psoe-antoni-gutierrez-rubi_2109295/

[Velasco]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.

At best you could get a partial deal for the Senate.

There is some precedent for this last option. Back in 2000, PSOE and IU did a deal where IU would drop out in several Spanish provinces for Senate and endorse PSOE. In practice, it didn't work because Aznar won a massive majority.
.

Don't take for granted that PP and Cs won't make alliances. The Spanish Right has experienced already the consequences of fragmentation under our electoral system. It's possible that Rivera has realized that Cs can't replace PP and is more open to take steps towards the re-foundation of the Big Common House. This is the wet dream of Aznar: reuniting the Spanish nationalist right currently splitted between PP, Cs and Vox is a mid-term strategic goal. While reunification won't happen tomorrow, Cs is already tied to PP and Vox. I think electoral alliances in Senate or small-sized provinces are feasible. They would help to pave the way for the final strategic goal. Also, as Entic Juliana writes today, the right will not let to happen a repetition of elections in Madrid. Vox is asserting its importance, while showing the hypocrisy of Cs. Rocio Monasterio is more clever than Ortega Smith, who was fooled by the promises of the new PP mayor of Madrid. Monasterio will get some concessions from PP and Cs. The astonishing Isabel Diaz Ayuso will likely be elected premier by September

While I understand to some extent the reluctance of Sánchez to have Pablo Iglesias in the government (I've read socialists fear a"Salvini effect", which may be exaggerated but it's not entirely baseless), PSOE has gone too far. Forcing the situation to the point that a new election seems inevitable may end in disaster. Also, making nods to Cs has revealed worthless. Despite the big pressure he's been facing, Rivera has gone too far in his strategy and will never leave the Colón Triumvirate. Cs has never been "liberal" or "progressive", it has been always a modernized version of the Spanish nationalist right. I hope that PSOE and UP find a way; although I don't feel very optimistic

[Velasco]

I think I may have asked this before but did CIS ever come out with an evaluation of the social traits of voters in the most recent parliamentary election? Previous data did indicate that VOX voters were quite distinct from right-wing populist voters in the rest of Europe.

According to the last CIS survey, 61.8% of the Vox voters is male. Unlike similar parties in the rest of Europe, Vox has little support in low income households. On the contrary, Vox is the party with the highest level of support in high income families. 63.6% voted for PP in the 2016 elections.

 Previous surveys highlighted other traits. The Vox average voter has 46 years, similar age to the Cs voter, younger than PP (60) or PSOE (55) and older than Podemos (44). The highest level of support is in the age group ranging between 35 and 44, while the support among the older than 65 is low (the oldest vote for PP). The level of education is above average, corresponding to the socioeconomic profile. Regarding professional activities, Vox has a very strong support among militaries and policemen (this was evident looking at certain precinct results in general elections). Other professions trail at great distance, being managers and farmers the following in importance. Unsurprisingly, the Vox voter is much more concerned about separatism in Catalonia than the average Spanish voter.