Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Walmart_shopper]

Even if Sánchez gets a bigger number in a hypothetical snap election (say, 30-35% of the vote), won't that be for naught if the PSOE doesn't get a majority of the seats? It'd be like what's going on right now.

The idea is that the bargaining chips would be greater.

[jaichind]

Exactly what is Sánchez's concern about having UP as part of the government?  Would he not want that so they share in the "blame" for any difficult decisions ?

[Velasco]

Exactly what is Sánchez's concern about having UP as part of the government?  Would he not want that so they share in the "blame" for any difficult decisions ?

I guess the main reason is that there's no tradition of coalition governments at national level. PSOE is the party that has been more years in power since 1977, when the first elections of the present democratic period took place. Socialists governed between 1982 to 1996, then from 2004 to 2011 and they came back to power in June 2018. They have governed always alone, with majorities in parliament in the 1980s and with confidence and supply agreements later. So we are talking about a party with government experience and accostumed to exercise power without sharing it. On the contrary, Podemos is a party founded five years ago with no experience in government (except at local level, with different electoral formulas in Madrid or Barcelona). The dazzling Podemos outbreak disrupted the political chessboard and threatened the PSOE's hegemony in the Spanish Left. I suspect some socialists still see Podemos as an intruder. Additionally, the arrogant attitude of Pablo Iglesias during the failed negotiations in 2016 doesn't help. Now Iglesias is adopting a more humble attitude and his demands sound more reasonable, as the balance of forces is less favourable for his interests. The personal relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is much better now, particularly since the Podemos leader played a key role in the success of the no confidence motion that ousted Mariano Rajoy*. However, Iglesias is a man with a strong personality and Sánchez doesn't like the idea of having him as Deputy PM. Such a perspective makes him nervous. Other possible reasons are pressures from economic powers**, the differences between PSOE and Podemos on Catalonia or that the coalition with Podemos doesn't have the numbers and would have to rely on the support of ERC or Bildu.  

*Pablo Iglesias forced Albert Rivera to make a strategic mistake with the consequence that Pedro Sánchez secured the PNV support, necessary to win the no confidence vote. The Podemos leader announced that, in case the Pedro Sánchez's attempt failed, he would submit another motion with the only purpose to call elections. Albert Rivera backed enthusiastically the Iglesias' proposal, as he was impatient because Cs was leading in the polls a year ago. However, the perspective of a Cs victory frightened the PNV because of the centralism of Rivera and his opposition to the Basque fiscal system. Despite the PNV voted the Rajoy's budget the previous week, the fear of Rivera made Basque nationalists to vote the no confidence motion.

**Cs leader Albert Rivera is being pressed already from various sides to allow the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, but his personal ambition is stronger than reasons of state and other arguments concerning the problematic relationship with Vox

[Skye]

So... there's a new CIS poll and the results are as follows:

PSOE: 39.5
C's: 15.8
PP: 13.7
Podemos: 12.7
VOX: 5.1
ERC: 3.9

In other words:

PSOE+UP: 52.2
C's+PP+VOX: 34.6

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3252marMT_A.pdf

EDIT: April election results:

PSOE+UP: 43
C's+PP+VOX: 42.8

Big swing to the left if true. Though isn't CIS a bit too friendly to the left?

[Former President tack50]

So... there's a new CIS poll and the results are as follows:

PSOE: 39.5
C's: 15.8
PP: 13.7
Podemos: 12.7
VOX: 5.1
ERC: 3.9

In other words:

PSOE+UP: 52.2
C's+PP+VOX: 34.6

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3252marMT_A.pdf

EDIT: April election results:

PSOE+UP: 43
C's+PP+VOX: 42.8

Big swing to the left if true. Though isn't CIS a bit too friendly to the left?

Yeah. CIS got lucky with the election, but outside campaign season it's massively biased for PSOE.

To get an idea of how biased, with those results, PSOE would get its first overall majority since the González era! (1986 to be precise)

In fact those results would be very reminiscent of something out of the mid 80s to an extent. The left vs right results are almost identical to those from 1982! (the largest landslide ever in Spanish history).

Needless to say, PSOE is not getting anywhere close to 40%

[Velasco]

The CIS poll is a joke.

There is a Sigma Dos poll with a vote estimation more in line to the result of the EP elections

PSOE 32.6%, PP 19.4%, UP 13.2%, Cs 13.1%, Vox 8%, ERC 4.2%

The last Invymark poll is better for the PSOE. However, I think a repetition of elections is too risky for Pedro Sánchez.  Election fatigue will likely boost abstention and hurt socialists. A scenario similar to Andalusia is unlikely in a general election, but a higher abstention won't help to create majorities.

There are problems within the Colón Triumvirate. Negotiations in the Madrid region are stalled and the PP candidate in Murcia didn't pass the first investiture vote because Vox didn't back him. The party led by Santiago Abascal demands three way negotiations and that oranges stop pretending that Cs and Vox are not talking. The PP candidate in Madrid already said that Cs and Vox are in contact on a daily basis. Isabel Diaz Ayuso is visibly exhausted of this game.

[Velasco]

ox voted against the investiture of Fernando López Miras, the PP candidate in the region of Murcia, preventing his election. The reason is that Vox demanded to PP and Cs a publc meeting and a basic programatic agreement signed by the three parties. Cs agreed to the first condition and the parties held a meeting this morning. Albert Rivera remained in silence, but Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas and deputy Juan Carlos Girauta stated that in neither case they will reach agrements with Vox. They attended the meeting only to "have a coffee" and explain Vox representatives the deal between PP and Cs. These statements outraged Vox and provoked the withdrawal of its representatives from the meeting.

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

The tensions surrounding the ongoing negotiations in the Madrid and Murcia regions to choose a new premier, and the pressure on far-right party Vox to support the candidates chosen by the conservative Popular Party (PP), exploded on Wednesday on social media, with one tweet that even contained personal insults aimed at the leader of the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) party.

The controversy was sparked by a message posted on Twitter from the official account of Vox, an ultra-nationalist group that picked up considerable support at the recent national, regional and municipal polls. “The height of nerve,” read the post, which was aimed at the Ciudadanos party. “Tell that scared, shameless boss of yours to forget about a cordon sanitaire, to stop kissing [French President Emmanuel] Macron’s ass and to let you sit down at a table and reach agreements with normal people. And if not, go and do a deal with the PSOE [Socialist Party], which is what you want anyway.”
The message referred to the unwillingness of Ciudadanos to enter into direct talks with Vox, despite both it and the PP needing the votes of the far-right group in order to form a government in regions such as Madrid and Murcia, thus keeping the left from taking power. Vox has already lent its support to the PP and Ciudadanos in Andalusia to form a government, and in Madrid City Hall. But talks are going nowhere in both Madrid and Murcia, with the clock ticking to the moment when fresh elections will have to be called.

The controversial tweet was sent in response to Ciudadanos’ organization secretary, Fran Hervías, who had criticized Vox for starting to “paralyze institutions by aligning itself with [left-wing] Podemos and the PSOE,” in allusion to its vote against the PP’s candidate for regional premier in Murcia, Fernando López Miras, and its refusal to support Isabel Díaz Ayuso for the same role in Madrid. “Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias must be delighted with their new partners,” the message added, in reference to the leaders of the PSOE and Podemos, respectively.

Shortly after the message was sent, Ciudadano sent a light-hearted reply. “Wow, classy. Congratulations, you are now a summer hit,” the Twitter post read, accompanied by a music video from a group called Locomía, singing their song Loco vox (or, “crazy vox”).

LocoVox tune by the dancing guys from Ibiza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=197&v=75nOiN6qDH0

[bigic]

Will Cs turn to PSOE?

[Velasco]

The CIS poll points something that is relevant. There is a growing concern among citizens over the state of Spanish politics

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562225341_303951.html

Politicians and political parties are considered one of the biggest problems facing Spain, according to the June survey from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS). The poll found that politicians rank behind only unemployment on the list of Spaniards’ concerns. Almost a third of those interviewed – 32.1%, four percentage points more than in May – say they are worried about the country’s politicians. This is the highest level since 1985.

The results come as political deadlock in Spain continues to deepen, more than two months after the April 28 general election. Although acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), has set a date for an investiture vote, he does not currently count on the necessary support from other political parties to be voted back into office by deputies in Congress. One of the main stumbling blocks has been the political stalemate between the Socialists and the left-wing anti-austerity group Unidas Podemos, whose 42 votes are needed to ensure Sánchez’s investiture bid is successful.

Up until a decade ago, around 10% of Spaniards were concerned about politicians but this figure began to rise in the middle of 2009 during the financial crisis. Since then, the downward trend has continued.

According to the June results, almost two-thirds (62.5%) of Spaniards say unemployment is the biggest national problem, followed closely by politics.

Political discontent reached similar peaks (above 30%) on two occasions in 2012 and 2013, just before the emergence of new political parties. After the repeat general elections of 2016, concern over politicians began to rise again until reaching the historic level in June (...)

Will Cs turn to PSOE?

Right now it's very unlikely. At this point it's more a personal question for Albert Rivera than anything. The "social-liberal" faction favourable to deal with PSOE is small and the resignation of Toni Roldán weakened it further. Additionally, Rivera will purge the few remaining dissident elements from party leadership. The Vox insults are unacceptable, but they have every reason to complain at Cs cynicism. Regardless I loathe the party's ideology and proposals, I understand their anger when they are treated by CS as servants who must hide when visits come home. Anyway I think PP, Cs and Vox will find the way to retain Madrid and Murcia.

[Lumine]

Will Cs turn to PSOE?

Right now it's very unlikely. At this point it's more a personal question for Albert Rivera than anything. The "social-liberal" faction favourable to deal with PSOE is small and the resignation of Toni Roldán weakened it further. Additionally, Rivera will purge the few remaining dissident elements from party leadership. The Vox insults are unacceptable, but they have every reason to complain at Cs cynicism. Regardless I loathe the party's ideology and proposals, I understand their anger when they are treated by CS as servants who must hide when visits come home. Anyway I think PP, Cs and Vox will find the way to retain Madrid and Murcia.

Why is there such personal loathing between Rivera and Sanchez? I never understood how it started, or when exactly things went to hell between the two of them after the 2016 PSOE-C's deal.

[Velasco]

Why is there such personal loathing between Rivera and Sanchez? I never understood how it started, or when exactly things went to hell between the two of them after the 2016 PSOE-C's deal.

It's a good question and there are different answers, depending on whom are you asking about. By the time of the PSOE-Cs deal Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera had a fluid relationship and that helped to overcome the difficulties in negotiations. PSOE and Cs acknowledged the deal was not easy to forge and both made concessions "for the common good". However, PSOE and Cs lacked a majority in Congress and the investiture of Sánchez failed due to the opposition of Podemos. The party led by Pablo Iglesias was excluded from negotiations because of the explicit veto opposed by Cs (and the implicit veto of the PSOE's establishment). In any case, Cs deemed the deal with PSOE as dead letter once the failure of the investiture led to new elections. June 2016 elections strengthened Rajoy and were disappointing to Iglesias and Rivera, while Sánchez retained the leadership of opposition by a narrow margin.

The relationshop between Sánchez and Rivera began to cool down since then, due to their differences on the Rajoy's investiture. Despite Rivera promised during the campaign he'd never support Rajoy, the Cs leader changed his mind for the sake of stability. Sánchez, however, remained firm in his opposition to Rajoy despite the heavy pressure on socialists to abstain. "No is No" was the motto of the socialist leader those days. Rivera accused Sánchez of blocking the country. Finally tensions within PSOE led to the replacement of Sánchez by a provisional leadership promoted by the party's establishment. Shortly after, Pedro Sánchez resigned his seat in parliament and his personal contact with Rivera was reduced to the minimum. When Pedro Sánchez won the leadership contest in May 2017, Rivera congratulated him via social networks. Days before Rivera warned Sánchez that he could not rely on Cs "to govern with nationalists". Despite Sánchez was regarded a moderate in his party when he won leadership by the first time, he campaigned on a leftist platform the second time, stating his willingness to reach deals with Podemos and peripheral nationalists. This turn was not motivated by ideological reasons, rather his motivations were tactical: seek the support of party grassroots against the establishment on the one hand, and counter the Podemos' threat from the left on the other hand. In a meeting that took place in December 2017, on the anniversary of the Constitution, Sánchez said: "I love Rivera, but he says I'm a Podemos supporter". Rivera replied to Sánchez: "you owe me an investiture". On the other hand, as the crisis in Catalonia worsened by Autumn 2017 and Cs rocketed in opinion polls, Sánchez hardened his stance against separatists. He agreed with Mariano Rajoy the implementation of article 155 limited in time and with immediate elections, against the wishes of hardliners in PP and Cs. Cs achieved a big success with Inés Arrimadas in the Catalan elections taking place on December 21, although it wasn't enough to govern the region.

 The no confidence motion against Rajoy in the following year broke up the personal relationship between Sánchez and Rivera. Both leaders agreed the court ruling in the PP's corruption scheme had to be the end of the Rajoy's career. However, Sánchez and Rivera had great differences on the purpose and the modus operandi. Sánchez argued his role as leader of the opposition entitled him to be the alternative candidate to Rajoy, while Rivera demanded a motion with an "instrumental candidate" aimed to call elections as soon as possible. Some people argue that Rivera felt outraged when Sánchez revealed details of private conversations between José Luis Äbalos (PSOE) and José Manuel Villegas (Cs) during their fierce debate in Congress. Namely, Sánchez revealed that Villegas advanced to Äbalos that Cs was not going to vote the 2019 budget, nor he expenditure ceiling the new government had to pass weeks later. Pedro Sánchez argues in his book 'Manual of resistance' that Rivera is not reliable and devotes himself to "intoxicate". The PSOE leader says Rivera didn't want to talk with him and derived contacts to their seconds in line, while beginning the narrative that Sánchez doesn't talk with Rivera because the aim of socialists is to deal with separatists. What is clear is the no confidence motion and its success outmaneuvered Rivera in a moment his party was leading the opinion polls. Since then, Rivera has been the most fierce opponent of Sánchez. The personal contact between both leaders is virtually non existent. After elections, the Cs leader attended meetings at La Moncloa visibly uncomfortable and he even rejected the last meeting offer a couple of days ago. Rivera's second in line José Manuel Villegas is the man in Cs who contacts the Sánchez's lieutenants José Luis Äbalos and Adriana Lastra.

[Former President tack50]

There is also the fact that Rivera is trying to (unsuccessfully) replace PP as the main party of the right, so they are avoiding deals with PSOE. Similarly, they have always been accused of having no principles, so maybe Cs is trying to overcorrect with their hard no to Pedro Sánchez?

[Skye]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

[windjammer]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

[Velasco]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

The Vox people has reasons to feel pissed at Cs hypocrisy, but the vulgar language of that tweet  is characteristic of bullies.

Cs annoys everybody, on the other hand. Yesterday a Cs delegation led by Inés Arrimadas was escorted out the Gay Pride parade in Madrid. The presence of Cs members provoked protests. There was a performance of people dressed in the Handmaid's Tale fashion (with orange robes) and a sit-in that caused a 1 1/2 delay in the parade. Some angry people screamed and insulted the Cs people and the oranges replied. The organizers said they called the police to prevent serious incidents and luckily nobody was injured. Obviously he motivation of protests is that Cs is making deals with Vox, a party that is openly against the LGTB movement. It's like Cs people was living in a parallel reality: oranges claim they make no deals with Vox, but they can't get their share of power without the far right. Politics is about making choices and oranges refuse to clarify their position. They want the Vox support without staining their hands in an open negotiation. Likewise they want to attend a gay parade as an organization, while they are dealing with a homophobic party through the back door. Nobody believes them because they are not credible.

[Skye]

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.

I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

The Vox people has reasons to feel pissed at Cs hypocrisy, but the vulgar language of that tweet  is characteristic of bullies.

Cs annoys everybody, on the other hand. Yesterday a Cs delegation led by Inés Arrimadas was escorted out the Gay Pride parade in Madrid. The presence of Cs members provoked protests. There was a performance of people dressed in the Handmaid's Tale fashion (with orange robes) and a sit-in that caused a 1 1/2 delay in the parade. Some angry people screamed and insulted the Cs people and the oranges replied. The organizers said they called the police to prevent serious incidents and luckily nobody was injured. Obviously he motivation of protests is that Cs is making deals with Vox, a party that is openly against the LGTB movement. It's like Cs people was living in a parallel reality: oranges claim they make no deals with Vox, but they can't get their share of power without the far right. Politics is about making choices and oranges refuse to clarify their position. They want the Vox support without staining their hands in an open negotiation. Likewise they want to attend a gay parade as an organization, while they are dealing with a homophobic party through the back door. Nobody believes them because they are not credible.

Funny you say that since I'm seeing Errejón tweeting about the issue criticizing the C's. He was openly an admirer of Hugo Chávez, and chavismo is a notoriously anti-LGBT movement.

[Velasco]

Funny you say that since I'm seeing Errejón tweeting about the issue criticizing the C's. He was openly an admirer of Hugo Chávez, and chavismo is a notoriously anti-LGBT movement.

Errejón and Iglesias have distanced themselves from chavismo. The leader of Más Madrid devoted his doctoral thesis to Evo Morales, btw. There is a lot of people in the left who admired Chávez years ago, including some personal friends of mine. They thought the deceased Venezuelan leader was a hope for Latin America and later changed their minds, particularly since the situation in Venezuela worsened with Maduro. I think everybody has the right to evolve and change. I was always skeptic about Chávez, but I try not to make recriminations to my friends saying "I told you". Likewise, I won't do it with Errejón when he's now positioned far from Venezuelan coordinates. He and his followers are unquestionably committed to women and LGTB rights. On the contrary, Vox is openly against the vindications of women and LGTB movements. Dealing with Vox in the present time represents a threat for their rights. It's legitimate to criticize Cs for that, especially when oranges claim they are a liberal party advocating LGTB rights. While I regret oranges were insulted, I understand the anger of many people. This year the Gay Pride was a massive outcry against the far right and the presence of Cs as political organization was rather unfathomable, since oranges made the conscious choice to ally with Vox through the back door. PP was more consistent and didn't attend the parade, although some PP members attended individually (which is great, because LGTB people voting for the right is represented). On the other hand, it's unacceptable that Arrimadas accused the openly gay Interior minister to have provoked the incidents. I concur with Grande Marlaska that deals with the far right have consequences: they affect the credibility of the Vox allies within the LGTB community

[Velasco]

Madrid Central low emissions scheme reinstated on judge's orders. The rightwing council fails to reverse the policy of former mayor Manuela Carmena

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/08/inenglish/1562569693_221178.html

Fines for entering the Madrid Central low-emissions zone were reactivated at midnight on Sunday, after a judge overturned a decision by the new city council to suspend the scheme.

Mayor José Luis Martínez-Almeida, of the conservative Popular Party (PP), took the decision to temporarily halt the fines for vehicles that entered the central area, backed by his partners in City Hall, center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens), and the far-right party Vox, upon whose votes the PP needed to take power and will rely on to pass legislation.

However, the move caused widespread anger among residents of the Spanish capital, prompting a street protest last week as well as hitting the headlines around the world, with Madrid becoming the first major European city to actually roll back a measure aimed at improving pollution levels. A year ago, the Madrid Central project was instrumental in sparing Spain legal action by the European Commission before the EU Court of Justice. At that point, the Spanish capital had been exceeding European pollution thresholds for nearly a decade.

On Friday a Madrid court took the precautionary measure of suspending the mayor’s moratorium to, in the words of the judge, avoid pollution from rising “without any kind of controls.” City Hall has been given three days to present its defense for the move. The decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by a body known as Platform in Defense of Madrid Central, which is made up of more than 80 organizations, including environmental NGOs Ecologists in Action and Greenpeace (...)

Today Pedro Sánchez opens a new round of conversations with little expectations. Spanish PM will meet Pablo Casado (PP) and Pablo Iglesias (UP) today, while Albert Rivera (Cs) rejected days ago the Sánchez's offer to hold a meeting. Sánchez and Iglesias haven't moved from their initial positions. PSOE leader claims that differences on Catalonia and the veto of possible allies are reasons to oppose the entry of UP members in government. Socialists issued a proposal to form a minority government, offering Podemos a programmatic agreement. The main concession would be the possible appointment of independent ministers close to Podemos, or the appointment of UP members in the second level of government (secretaries of state, general directors). Pablo Iglesias stated the programmatic offer was insufficient and somewhat regressive with regards to the PSOE-UP budget deal. Iglesias said he would sign a document committing himself the official line in Catalonia and proposed the coalition government is voted alongside the investiture of Sánchez, promising that he would give up his pretensions if the investiture fails. Socialists rejected the offer, among other things because there is a high chance that Sánchez passes the investiture on the grounds of a coalition agreement. PNV, Compromís and PRC would not oppose to a PSOE-UP coalition and ERC seems to be willing to allow the investiture.

Yesterday morning PP and Cs signed a deal to govern the region of Madrid, ignoring Vox again and provoking the indignation of party leader Santiago Abascal and regional spokeswoman Rocío Monasterio. PP candidate Isabel Díaz Ayuso tweeted that she incorporated the Vox proposals to the agreement with Cs, as well she commits herself to fulfill and defend them. Monasterio deemed the PP-Cs agreement as "shameful", while Abascal demanded a three way meeting between him, Casado and Rivera. The Cs leader rejected the offer and proposed a meeting of the regional teams. Vox and Cs are playing another "chicken game". Regardless I think the attitude of Cs is cynic and hypocritical, maybe oranges will get what they want (power) given that Vox has few alternatives. In case the collision course continues, Madrid and Murcia could face new regional elections. Vox has little to gain in this scenario, but I doubt Cs will perform better in a repetition.

[seb_pard]

The PSOE are playing with fire. Now the PNV are considering abstaining. Tremendous irresponsibility from the Socialists.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

[seb_pard]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

[Velasco]

Political deadlock increases the likelihood of fresh elections

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/09/inenglish/1562685123_273818.html

Long after Spaniards cast their votes in national, regional and local polls, political parties remain unable to reach governing deals, raising the chances of repeat elections. Most political actors describe the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust, while politicians blame one another for a deadlock that could force an exhausted electorate to return to the ballot boxes ahead of time.

At the national level, a Tuesday meeting between acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Pablo Iglesias of the leftist Unidas Podemos evidenced the divide between two politicians who have been trying to reach a governing agreement since the elections of April 28 (...)

The Socialists – who won the election but fell well short of an overall majority – are still refusing to consider a coalition government with Unidas Podemos.

The most that Sánchez’s party will consider is the possibility of placing independent candidates “of renown” in a few ministerial positions. As an alternative, Podemos members could be offered mid-level government posts.

But Iglesias – whose Unidas Podemos came in fourth at the election with 42 seats, compared with the PSOE’s 123 lawmakers – views this as insufficient.

“What Spain needs is a leftist coalition government, and we hope to convince the PSOE to be more flexible,” said the Podemos leader following the meeting. “[Sánchez’s] position defending a single-party government goes against what citizens voted for. And I think that sooner or later they will rectify.”

The Socialists quickly issued a reply. “Today’s meeting did not bear fruit; it seems that Iglesias is more concerned about Cabinet appointments than about policymaking,” said Adriana Lastra, the party vice-secretary and congressional spokesperson for the PSOE (...)

Deadlock in Madrid

Spanish politics are not just blocked at the national level. A similar scenario is on display in key regions such as Madrid, where a government is yet to be formed following the May 26 election.

The Madrid regional assembly is about to hold an investiture session without any actual candidate to invest with power, and a repeat election will be held if no cross-party agreement emerges before early September.

On Tuesday, the far-right Vox party informed the regional assembly leader that its 12 lawmakers will not support Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP’s nominee to head the Madrid region, at a vote scheduled for Wednesday.

“We are not going to support the [governing] agreement between the PP and Ciudadanos because it is dead,” said Vox’s own candidate to lead the region, Rocío Monasterio. Ever since it burst onto the political scene at the Andalusian elections of December 2018, Vox has been propping up right-wing governments in several parts of Spain without officially joining the executives.

Without Vox’s support, Ayuso has 56 votes (from her own PP and from the center-right Ciudadanos) compared with 64 for the socialist candidate Ángel Gabilondo, who is backed by the PSOE, Unidas Podemos and the leftist Más Madrid group. Neither figure is enough for a majority.

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

The possibility of a PP-Cs alliance in small-sized provinces in addition to further fragmentation in the left and lower turnout could be damaging, indeed. It is rumoured that Íñigo Errejón is planning to enter national politics, expanding Más Madrid ("Más País" would be the provisional name) and seeking regional alliances with parties like Compromís. It'd be a "New Left" party greatly inspired by AOC's "Green New Deal" that would compete against Pablo Iglesias and UP. A new election may precipitate the forming of this new alternative force. Errejón was great in the Madrid assembly, showing once again the huge contradictions of Cs regional leader Ugnacio Aguado. Cs is clearly the weakest link of the Spanish Right.

I read Enric Juliana regularly, but also the conservative analyst José Antonio Zarzalejos: he's former editor of ABC, very smart, dislikes Vox and distanced from Cs due to its cynic attitute towards the far right. Obviously Zarzalejos dislikes Podemos too and his analysis of the strategy followed by Sánchez and his spin doctor Iván Redondo is more favourable. I don't share his point of view, but it's interesting to read

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/notebook/2019-07-06/pedro-sanchez-ivan-redondo-psoe-antoni-gutierrez-rubi_2109295/

[jaichind]

But on the Right side would not a weaker VOX drag down the Pan-Right seat count by eating up Right votes but falling short of thresholds in many places to get seats in an new election ?

[Former President tack50]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.

At best you could get a partial deal for the Senate.

There is some precedent for this last option. Back in 2000, PSOE and IU did a deal where IU would drop out in several Spanish provinces for Senate and endorse PSOE. In practice, it didn't work because Aznar won a massive majority.

It is worth noting that Navarra Suma is also not the first regional alliance, especially not for Senate. Back in the Zapatero era, PSOE, ICV and ERC used to run together for Senate in Catalonia as the "Catalan Alliance for Progress" (Entesa Catalana de Progrés).

During the 2015 and 2019 elections (interestingly not 2016 though), Podemos, IU, Bildu and GBai ran together for Senate in Navarra as "Cambio-Aldaketa". The alliance's results were mixed though. In 2015 they beat out PSOE for the last Senator and came really close to beating UPN. However, in 2019 they didn't get any.

And if you care to go that back, it wouldn't even be the first alliance for Congress. Back in the massive PSOE wave of 1982, AP and UCD ran together in the Basque Country.

[Velasco]

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.

Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.

At best you could get a partial deal for the Senate.

There is some precedent for this last option. Back in 2000, PSOE and IU did a deal where IU would drop out in several Spanish provinces for Senate and endorse PSOE. In practice, it didn't work because Aznar won a massive majority.
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Don't take for granted that PP and Cs won't make alliances. The Spanish Right has experienced already the consequences of fragmentation under our electoral system. It's possible that Rivera has realized that Cs can't replace PP and is more open to take steps towards the re-foundation of the Big Common House. This is the wet dream of Aznar: reuniting the Spanish nationalist right currently splitted between PP, Cs and Vox is a mid-term strategic goal. While reunification won't happen tomorrow, Cs is already tied to PP and Vox. I think electoral alliances in Senate or small-sized provinces are feasible. They would help to pave the way for the final strategic goal. Also, as Entic Juliana writes today, the right will not let to happen a repetition of elections in Madrid. Vox is asserting its importance, while showing the hypocrisy of Cs. Rocio Monasterio is more clever than Ortega Smith, who was fooled by the promises of the new PP mayor of Madrid. Monasterio will get some concessions from PP and Cs. The astonishing Isabel Diaz Ayuso will likely be elected premier by September

While I understand to some extent the reluctance of Sánchez to have Pablo Iglesias in the government (I've read socialists fear a"Salvini effect", which may be exaggerated but it's not entirely baseless), PSOE has gone too far. Forcing the situation to the point that a new election seems inevitable may end in disaster. Also, making nods to Cs has revealed worthless. Despite the big pressure he's been facing, Rivera has gone too far in his strategy and will never leave the Colón Triumvirate. Cs has never been "liberal" or "progressive", it has been always a modernized version of the Spanish nationalist right. I hope that PSOE and UP find a way; although I don't feel very optimistic