GA-07: Rep. Rob Woodall will not seek reelection

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Solid D Georgia is returning!

[Del Tachi]

this is GOOD for GOP chances. It is laughable to imply otherwise. The GOP are the people who were pressuring him to retire.

Unless the incumbent is unpopular(*cough* Tenney *cough*), its always better to have an incumbent than run in an open race, especially in a rather even seat.

Woodall wasnt unpopular.

Not when that incumbent isn't keen on fundraising or actually running a campaign.  The NRCC spent $0 in GA-07 while spending close to $1 million on Handel.  That wasn't because GA-07 was noncompetitive, but because Woodall had only $529k in his war chest in August and the NRCC has a history of not bailing-out candidates unwilling to do their own fundraising.

A better Republican candidate will be an improvement over Woodall's 2018 fundraising/campaign operation.

[Young Conservative]

this is GOOD for GOP chances. It is laughable to imply otherwise. The GOP are the people who were pressuring him to retire.

Abrams beat Kemp by 2 here

The Democrat beat the Republican by 2 points in the most Democrat leaning year in decades? *pretends to be concerned*

[Del Tachi]

From the NYT in October 2018:

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A big, competitive GOP primary in 2020 will ensure that the Republican nominee will have the fundraising and campaign chops to keep the seat.  Woodall's retiring simply because he doesn't like to campaign, folks.

[OneJ]

Bourdeaux is running again. She's going to make an official announcement next week

Wonderful!

[Technocracy Timmy]

this is GOOD for GOP chances. It is laughable to imply otherwise. The GOP are the people who were pressuring him to retire.

Abrams beat Kemp by 2 here

The Democrat beat the Republican by 2 points in the most Democrat leaning year in decades? *pretends to be concerned*

A liberal black woman Democrat in a deep southern state in a strongly D trending and rapidly diversifying suburban district.

Solid D Georgia is returning!

[Nyvin]

this is GOOD for GOP chances. It is laughable to imply otherwise. The GOP are the people who were pressuring him to retire.

Abrams beat Kemp by 2 here

The Democrat beat the Republican by 2 points in the most Democrat leaning year in decades? *pretends to be concerned*

In a district that's trending left rapidly and only 45% white.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This district voted two points for a black liberal woman Democrat. Safe R

[Brittain33]

Is there any example from 2018 where a Republican stepping down made it easier to hold the seat with a replacement nominee? Let’s rule out the heavily scandalous which Woodall was not.

[Skunk]

Is there any example from 2018 where a Republican stepping down made it easier to hold the seat with a replacement nominee? Let’s rule out the heavily scandalous which Woodall was not.

Congresswoman Young Kim proves that Republicans can win in diverse affluent areas after an incumbent retires.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably slight tilt D. Woodall did win, even if it was only 400 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

I'd like to think I'm usually a fairly realistic person when it comes to the performance of the GOP in the South, and what chances both they and Democrats have in various places.

With that being said, I see no viable, realistic path for the GOP to hold onto this seat. Gwinnett is one of those places where even somebody like me can turn their head for a few months and already be out of touch with how much demographic shift and growth has occurred in a broader area. It's changing faster than SoCal. It's changing faster than NoVA. I'm not sure there's even a place anywhere in the country that is comparable to it in this regard (maybe another area within the broader metro).

Democrats won't need it to be a good year for them to win. Hell, the GOP could probably win the House PV and this district would still have a decent chance of flipping. Besides the huge rate of demographic turnover and growth, this is also ground zero in GA for Latino and Asian voters (who, while turning out in big numbers in 2018 like everybody else, still lagged the electorate as a whole - their turnout will be higher in 2020, with or without Abrams).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

[136or142]

It's debatable Woodall even really won in 2018. There were some odd election night shenanigans on the Secretary of State website.  At one point Carolyn Bordeaux was ahead, then, even though no new votes came in, Woodall was back ahead by around 1,000 votes, and then, the final certified results had him winning by around 400.

[Adam Griffin]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

Hell, not just part: like 75% of the county's population, lol.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

Hell, not just part: like 75% of the county's population, lol.

The map drawers in 2011 were idiots more concerned about bastions of primary rivals than partisan security.

[beesley]

Louis Tseng should be the GOP candidate.

[QAnonKelly]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

Hell, not just part: like 75% of the county's population, lol.

Wasn’t Forsyth one of the counties with the biggest swing between 2012 and 16?

[Politician]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

Hell, not just part: like 75% of the county's population, lol.

Wasn’t Forsyth one of the counties with the biggest swing between 2012 and 16?

It went from 80% R to 70% R for the best Democratic performance since 1996.

[Brittain33]

Is there any example from 2018 where a Republican stepping down made it easier to hold the seat with a replacement nominee? Let’s rule out the heavily scandalous which Woodall was not.

Congresswoman Young Kim proves that Republicans can win in diverse affluent areas after an incumbent retires.

Oh right! I remember when the media ignored her win as the first Korean-American congresswoman just because she's a Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

Part of Forsyth County is going to have a Democratic Representative. Holy sh!t.

Hell, not just part: like 75% of the county's population, lol.

Wasn’t Forsyth one of the counties with the biggest swing between 2012 and 16?

It definitely had the biggest swing of any GA county in 2016 (15.81 points). Throughout the Old Confederacy, there's only one other jurisdiction I eyeball that swung more to Clinton (Arlington, VA; 19.4 points).

[Del Tachi]

I'd like to think I'm usually a fairly realistic person when it comes to the performance of the GOP in the South, and what chances both they and Democrats have in various places.

With that being said, I see no viable, realistic path for the GOP to hold onto this seat. Gwinnett is one of those places where even somebody like me can turn their head for a few months and already be out of touch with how much demographic shift and growth has occurred in a broader area. It's changing faster than SoCal. It's changing faster than NoVA. I'm not sure there's even a place anywhere in the country that is comparable to it in this regard (maybe another area within the broader metro).

Democrats won't need it to be a good year for them to win. Hell, the GOP could probably win the House PV and this district would still have a decent chance of flipping. Besides the huge rate of demographic turnover and growth, this is also ground zero in GA for Latino and Asian voters (who, while turning out in big numbers in 2018 like everybody else, still lagged the electorate as a whole - their turnout will be higher in 2020, with or without Abrams).

Just because I consider you a fairly neutral and informed observer of Georgia politics, I'll ask: how would you rate Woodall's 2018 campaign operation?  A lot of GA Republicans didn't think he put forth much effort and I think that's a major reason why Woodall is retiring.


As for GA-07, yes it's an increasingly diverse district but let's not conflate Gwinnett County trends with GA-07 trends.  The most Democratic parts of Gwinnett  aren't even in GA-07, and Buford and Sugar Hill are still rabid pro-Trump exurbia that will be turning out for him big time in 2020.

[Doimper]

Is there any example from 2018 where a Republican stepping down made it easier to hold the seat with a replacement nominee? Let’s rule out the heavily scandalous which Woodall was not.

Congresswoman Young Kim proves that Republicans can win in diverse affluent areas after an incumbent retires.

Oh right! I remember when the media ignored her win as the first Korean-American congresswoman just because she's a Republican.

I remember that big Reddit post hailing her victory the night of the election, lol

[lfromnj]

Is there any example from 2018 where a Republican stepping down made it easier to hold the seat with a replacement nominee? Let’s rule out the heavily scandalous which Woodall was not.

Young Kim probably came closer than Royce would have  and Crenshaw definetely did better than the incumbent would have done.

[MT Treasurer]

D+1 obviously, but it’s not like Woodall would have been able to hold this for Rs either.