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  China's Population to Peak at 1.44 Billion by 2029
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Author Topic: China's Population to Peak at 1.44 Billion by 2029  (Read 821 times)
Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
Frodo
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« on: February 03, 2019, 09:36:39 pm »

And that's according to their own government:

China's population set to peak at 1.44 billion in 2029: government report
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2019, 10:40:53 pm »

I know, my Politics of China college class was discussing the "demographic time bomb" back in 2009. It's not breaking news.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2019, 06:04:29 am »

I know, my Politics of China college class was discussing the "demographic time bomb" back in 2009. It's not breaking news.

It doesn't have to be for us to discuss it.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2019, 10:58:03 pm »

The "China will take over the world" meme will fizzle out in the 2020s for many combined factors, and this is another one.
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Storr
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2019, 11:39:09 pm »

Now we only need to make sure the US population continues to grow.
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Blairite
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2019, 11:41:01 pm »

Now we only need to make sure the US population continues to grow.
This is correct. This is also how we beat China. Right now, our QOL is objectively better. Literally advertise living in the USA to China's upper-middle class, and 1 million+/year move here. Once they start losing their new consumer base, China might start to change some of their ways.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2019, 11:42:14 pm »

Now we only need to make sure the US population continues to grow.

And for now, that is dependent on the immigrants coming into this country.  Unless of course, we see a baby boom that rivals the post-war original in the next couple of decades...  
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exnaderite
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2019, 12:13:18 am »

This is correct. This is also how we beat China. Right now, our QOL is objectively better. Literally advertise living in the USA to China's upper-middle class, and 1 million+/year move here. Once they start losing their new consumer base, China might start to change some of their ways.
There's absolutely no need to do any advertising. Virtually everyone in China with any significant amount of wealth is buying real estate in the U.S., or Canada, Australia, or other western countries. So many, in fact, that many governments have restricted real estate sales to foreigners. And yes, these buyers include Politburo members, including the family of Xi Jinping himself.

And believe me, many of these Chinese nouveau riche, who obtained their wealth through less than decent ways, are people these countries are better off without.
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Blairite
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2019, 12:15:33 am »

This is correct. This is also how we beat China. Right now, our QOL is objectively better. Literally advertise living in the USA to China's upper-middle class, and 1 million+/year move here. Once they start losing their new consumer base, China might start to change some of their ways.
There's absolutely no need to do any advertising. Virtually everyone in China with any significant amount of wealth is buying real estate in the U.S., or Canada, Australia, or other western countries. So many, in fact, that many governments have restricted real estate sales to foreigners. And yes, these buyers include Politburo members, including the family of Xi Jinping himself.

And believe me, many of these Chinese nouveau riche, who obtained their wealth through less than decent ways, are people these countries are better off without.
I'm not talking about the nouveau riche buying second homes. I'm talking about the millions of Chinese with 100-500k in assets becoming permanent Americans.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2019, 12:56:52 am »

They're all bringing their offspring to western countries specifically to receive an education that (if they have the money) is much more fulfilling than what is available at home. That in itself is already an ideological threat to the Party.

I doubt there's the political appetite in the U.S. to accept 1 million Chinese immigrants per year, even if they're skilled and well-to-do. There already is a shortage of top-quality public schools and affordable housing, the two issues they will obsess about. The constant mass shootings in the U.S. also make the news in China and serve to dissuade some would-be emigrants.

Opening the floodgates without resolving these issues will cause tensions down the road. But if somehow there's a concerted national effort to solve these issues, then the U.S. will have made tremendous progress with or without additional immigration.
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Annatar
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2019, 10:49:43 am »

The US on current trends will enter natural decrease itself by around 2030 on current trends although immigration will keep up population growth for a while. One of the most important changes in the long term strategic competition between America and China is one of the long term advantages that America enjoyed over China in the 2000's, namely higher fertility is gone. In 2007, the US TFR was around 2.1 vs 1.5 for China, 40% higher, Chinese TFR in 2018 was around 1.55 while US TFR looks like it fell to 1.72, a 10% advantage.

The fact that the American fertility advantage has gone from 40% in the 2000's to 10% today seems to be ignored by the so called analysts who can't stop talking about how America has a demographic advantage over China. In terms of natural population growth, America is closer to hitting negative growth then China is.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2019, 02:25:29 pm »

In 2018, the US birth rate has hit a new low of 11.6 per 1000 people, while the death rate was 8.7 per 1000, so the natural increase was down to 2.9 per 1000 people.

That is actually lower than China's in 2018, which had a birth rate of 10.9 and a death rate of just 7.1 - for a natural growth rate of 3.8 per 1000.

The US on the other hand still has considerable immigration of the same size as the natural increase, while China has virtually no immigration surplus (or doesn't even track it, neither does the US really).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2019, 01:56:44 am »

China‘s new stamp called „A family of happy pigs“ might indicate a 3-child policy this year (IMO they could scrap their „policy“ altogether, because families can hardly afford more than 2 kids anyway in China):

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