Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs? (user search)
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  Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs?  (Read 7007 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: May 14, 2019, 02:02:57 AM »

Also, just to clarify to the red avatars (and Tekken_Guy, who is doing his best to be the heir apparent to Badger when he FINALLY registers as a Democrat) ... will Republicans ever get any voters again?  Once White Boomers die off, will they get 20-30% of the vote in all national elections?  There is a strange paradox present on Atlas that holds two truths:

1) People do NOT get more conservative as they age, as a rule (which I agree with), AND younger voters (i.e., younger than Millennials) do not appear to be significantly more conservative than Millennials (I again agree).

2) 2016/2018 trends will continue into the foreseeable future (here is where I disagree).

You all do realize that if both of these things are true, the GOP will be down to ~35% of the popular vote by the 2030s, right?

This actually wouldn't be unprecedented. Just look at 1920 and 1924. GOP dominance was so extreme by that point that the Dems only got 34.1% and 28.8% respectively in those elections.

It will require the GOP change drastically, just as the Democrats did with FDR, for them to win again if and when it reaches that point.

I don't see our current state of polarization lasting forever, nor do I see Millennials/younger becoming diehard conservatives. So something's gotta give, and it will probably force the GOP to either adapt or die and be replaced by a new party. That also wouldn't be unprecedented -- the GOP itself was formed out of the ashes of the Whigs, which was formed out of the ashes of the Federalists. Only the Democratic Party has endured in one form or another since (almost) the founding of the nation.
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