Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs?
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  Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs?
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Author Topic: Will the 2024 GOP candidate do better than Trump in suburbs?  (Read 6877 times)
Scottholes 2.0
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« on: February 01, 2019, 08:10:38 PM »
« edited: February 01, 2019, 08:20:10 PM by Scottholes 2.0 »

Particularly middle-income to upper-income white suburbs? I can't determine if the current GOP problem among white suburbanites is reactionary to the era of Trumpism, or if this is really a geographical realignment. Romney did better than McCain did in the suburbs. There seems to be a ton of "never-Trump" Republicans living in suburbs.

EDIT: Can the moderator move this question? I posted it in the wrong category.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2019, 08:41:30 PM »

1) Did Trump really do better in lower income suburbs (as opposed to middle or upper)?  Not talking countries here, deeper inspection than that metric.  His vote share was directly tied with a higher income, so that would surprise me.  Obviously, he lost uncharacteristic ground in the higher income ones, but was his vote share actually higher in low income ones (as I believe your post assumes)?  I’m genuinely curious.

2) It will depend.  I think the 2024 GOPer will ABSOLUTELY do better with, say, *Romney-Clinton voters*, but we’ll have a different voter pool by then.  Younger voters will likely remain pretty Democratic and they’ll constitute a larger share of this group by then.  Same with minoroties.  So, IMO it’s the answer to a simple math equation that I don’t feel I can predict yet.
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2019, 11:14:46 PM »

If 2/3 of these things happen almost certainly:

1. Trump is defeated in 2020
2. A Recession Happens in the early 20s(say early 90s style) under a Democratic President
3. Establishment Republican is the nominee


If all 3 happens they would do a better in the Suburbs than they have in any election since 2004
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2019, 01:57:14 AM »

Depends entirely on the performance of the Democratic president.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2019, 11:41:53 AM »

More than likely better. It'll boil down to whoever the Democrat is and who the Republican is. If its Sanders vs. Haley or Baker (or Haley/Baker), then I think the Republican would do about as good as Bush '04 or better. If its Gillibrand vs. Cotton, then the Democrat does about the same as 2016 or better.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2019, 03:17:34 PM »

Not of Trump is still president,

But if a Democrat is President and it is a moderate (not Cotton or Pence) then about 5-10 pp better
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2019, 05:15:40 AM »

Depends on which party is the incumbent. If Trump/Pence is still the President/VP no, if it's the Dems, probably yes (with the significant caveat of an economic crash in the next 18 months)
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2019, 12:24:46 PM »

Will the 2016 Democratic candidate do better than Obama in Coal Country?

If it's someone like #populist Clinton, of course. #populist WWC Clinton wins back Mingo County with 70% of the vote, tbh imo tbh.
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2019, 01:15:48 PM »

Will the 2016 Democratic candidate do better than Obama in Coal Country?

If it's someone like #populist Clinton, of course. #populist WWC Clinton wins back Mingo County with 70% of the vote, tbh imo tbh.


If Obama lost in 2012 the answer would have been yes unless of course, Romney was winning in a big in 2016.

Also The Democrats dont need Coal Country while Republicans need the suburbs
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2019, 01:44:32 PM »

If 2024 is an open election with Trump at the end of his second term, no (eight-year itch will mean Democrats will be poised to win big)

If 2024 is the reelection campaign for an incumbent Democratic president, yes
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2019, 01:31:05 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2019, 10:02:22 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.
There is absolutely no empirical evidence to suggest this is the case.
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2019, 10:09:54 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.

Umm no, I am also of Gen Z, and most of the friends at school are hardcore liberals. Young people are always extremely liberal and change as they get older, for the next 10 years, Gen Z will vote 80-20 Dem, once they get settled, people tend to trend conservative, and as seniors, most people are conservative, but there are liberal seniors
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Xeuma
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2019, 10:52:58 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.

Umm no, I am also of Gen Z, and most of the friends at school are hardcore liberals. Young people are always extremely liberal and change as they get older, for the next 10 years, Gen Z will vote 80-20 Dem, once they get settled, people tend to trend conservative, and as seniors, most people are conservative, but there are liberal seniors

This theory has been mostly discredited. However you vote at 25 is generally how you'll vote for the rest of your life. Some people may switch, but they are the exception. What my happen is that the political center of the country moves left or right and then people are judged relative to that center, but there's little chance that a given liberal will become a conservative in their old age or vice versa.

As for Gen Z being liberal, however, you are most certainly correct.
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Spark
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2019, 08:16:12 PM »

Absolutely
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2019, 07:11:35 AM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.

LOL. The “Conservative Gen Z” theory has been proven to be nothing but bull. Conservatives are too arrogant to admit it.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2019, 09:48:10 AM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.

LOL. The “Conservative Gen Z” theory has been proven to be nothing but bull. Conservatives are too arrogant to admit it.

Besides you, though, right?

Also, just to clarify to the red avatars (and Tekken_Guy, who is doing his best to be the heir apparent to Badger when he FINALLY registers as a Democrat) ... will Republicans ever get any voters again?  Once White Boomers die off, will they get 20-30% of the vote in all national elections?  There is a strange paradox present on Atlas that holds two truths:

1) People do NOT get more conservative as they age, as a rule (which I agree with), AND younger voters (i.e., younger than Millennials) do not appear to be significantly more conservative than Millennials (I again agree).

2) 2016/2018 trends will continue into the foreseeable future (here is where I disagree).

You all do realize that if both of these things are true, the GOP will be down to ~35% of the popular vote by the 2030s, right?
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2019, 05:26:36 PM »

The reason the suburbs (especially in the sunbelt) are trending so fast is because of generational turnover so no

This would be true if Gen Z was a liberal generation like Millenials, but they aren't. High Schoolers nowadays are much more conservative on social and fiscal issues, and protectionist on economic issues, in contrast to millenials.

*But muh March For Our Lives!*

Gun control is one issue and doesn't really correlate to any other issues. Gen Z generally supports background checks and raising major weapon ownership legality from 18 to 21+. Assault weapon bans are viewed favorably by a slim majority of high and middle schoolers, but they aren't going to vote dem on one issue. The data is already showing the trends.

Overall Gen Z is pretty pessimistic about politics, but the generation is lean R and this is coming from a Gen Z person.

LOL. The “Conservative Gen Z” theory has been proven to be nothing but bull. Conservatives are too arrogant to admit it.

Besides you, though, right?

Also, just to clarify to the red avatars (and Tekken_Guy, who is doing his best to be the heir apparent to Badger when he FINALLY registers as a Democrat) ... will Republicans ever get any voters again?  Once White Boomers die off, will they get 20-30% of the vote in all national elections?  There is a strange paradox present on Atlas that holds two truths:

1) People do NOT get more conservative as they age, as a rule (which I agree with), AND younger voters (i.e., younger than Millennials) do not appear to be significantly more conservative than Millennials (I again agree).

2) 2016/2018 trends will continue into the foreseeable future (here is where I disagree).

You all do realize that if both of these things are true, the GOP will be down to ~35% of the popular vote by the 2030s, right?
The trends will continue until the GOP gets desperate enough to drop the reactionary Boomer shtick and move to the center. This will take a while given the aggressive propaganda campaign that Fox News is waging, but I expect that by the late 30s they will nominate an actual moderate (i.e an Eisenhower or Clinton type).
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2019, 02:02:57 AM »

Also, just to clarify to the red avatars (and Tekken_Guy, who is doing his best to be the heir apparent to Badger when he FINALLY registers as a Democrat) ... will Republicans ever get any voters again?  Once White Boomers die off, will they get 20-30% of the vote in all national elections?  There is a strange paradox present on Atlas that holds two truths:

1) People do NOT get more conservative as they age, as a rule (which I agree with), AND younger voters (i.e., younger than Millennials) do not appear to be significantly more conservative than Millennials (I again agree).

2) 2016/2018 trends will continue into the foreseeable future (here is where I disagree).

You all do realize that if both of these things are true, the GOP will be down to ~35% of the popular vote by the 2030s, right?

This actually wouldn't be unprecedented. Just look at 1920 and 1924. GOP dominance was so extreme by that point that the Dems only got 34.1% and 28.8% respectively in those elections.

It will require the GOP change drastically, just as the Democrats did with FDR, for them to win again if and when it reaches that point.

I don't see our current state of polarization lasting forever, nor do I see Millennials/younger becoming diehard conservatives. So something's gotta give, and it will probably force the GOP to either adapt or die and be replaced by a new party. That also wouldn't be unprecedented -- the GOP itself was formed out of the ashes of the Whigs, which was formed out of the ashes of the Federalists. Only the Democratic Party has endured in one form or another since (almost) the founding of the nation.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2019, 02:14:17 PM »

It could be Trump himself if he runs again after losing 2020. I'm not kidding.
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TML
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2019, 03:22:11 AM »

If the candidate decides to mimic Trump, then no way.

If the candidate decides to mimic establishment Republican candidates (e.g. McCain, Romney, etc.), then it could be possible.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2019, 04:25:30 PM »

It could be Trump himself if he runs again after losing 2020. I'm not kidding.

If he loses in 2020 (and is forced to step down), he'll be in prison by then.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2019, 10:12:09 PM »

It could be Trump himself if he runs again after losing 2020. I'm not kidding.
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Grassroots
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2019, 08:21:21 PM »

It could be Trump himself if he runs again after losing 2020. I'm not kidding.

If he loses in 2020 (and is forced to step down), he'll be in prison by then.

Trump refusing to step down is the biggest boogeyman event atlas dems have ever pushed. Seriously, he's not going to do that.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2019, 09:53:14 PM »

It could be Trump himself if he runs again after losing 2020. I'm not kidding.

He'd be too old IMO.
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