International COVID-19 Megathread

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Step it up:

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1241063920296775681

Things are still quite lax across a lot of the developed western world.

[Velasco]

Yes, and possibly the Chinese expert is right. We lack the Chinese social discipline (and thankfully the authoritarian regime) in Italy and Spain. We could pay a high price for being too lax on confinement. On the other hand, I see a positive aspect in the coronavirus crisis. We are recovering the sense of community and now the heroes are real people (health ancleaning workers, cashiers, truck drivers, farmers...) instead of stupid celebrities

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I've been putting my rudimentary italian to use and reading some of the coverage there, so there are a couple of articles worth sharing which go into a bit more depth about the numbers we've been seeing:

1. Firstly, this chart (which in fairness I got from the cesspool that is Vote UK):

Hell, if that place is a "cesspool" what does that make Facebook and Twitter?

The contents?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

800 cases in Switzerland today, the number of cases per day is jumping around all over the place, which is apparently down to the cantons reporting individually and the fact that the OFSP (public health authority) is doing it's reporting using ... a fax machine... in 2020... in one of the richest countries on the planet...

I just don't understand where the stereotype that the Swiss are slow comes from.

At least here in the U.S., the medical and financial industries are the major users because they both deal with private data and it's a lot harder to hack fax machines than computers.

[parochial boy]

800 cases in Switzerland today, the number of cases per day is jumping around all over the place, which is apparently down to the cantons reporting individually and the fact that the OFSP (public health authority) is doing it's reporting using ... a fax machine... in 2020... in one of the richest countries on the planet...

I just don't understand where the stereotype that the Swiss are slow comes from.

At least here in the U.S., the medical and financial industries are the major users because they both deal with private data and it's a lot harder to hack fax machines than computers.

A planned upgrade had been shelved after the Swine flu crisis exposed similar flaws, and at one point this week they were apparently weighing test results to estimate case numbers as the fax machine wasn’t able to keep up. I’m pretty sure is was complacency about the pre-existing system rather than worries about privacy in this case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we keep CCP propaganda out of this thread, maybe?

[Pericles]

For New Zealand, an alert system has been announced for coronavirus. This link shows in more detail how the alert system works. There are alert levels for both nationwide and regionally, so it's possible that certain regions of New Zealand could end up being locked down. New Zealand is currently at Alert Level 2 (the levels go from 1-4). Also, New Zealand has 52 coronavirus cases with almost all being directly from overseas arrivals and no clear community transmission so far.

So for Alert Level 2, these are the measures that take place with it "Entry border measures maximised, Further restrictions on mass gatherings, Physical distancing on public transport (e.g. leave the seat next to you empty if you can), Limit non-essential travel around New Zealand, Employers start alternative ways of working if possible (e.g. remote working, shift-based working, physical distancing within the workplace, staggering meal breaks, flexible leave arrangements), Business continuity plans activated, High-risk people advised to remain at home (e.g. those over 70 or those with other existing medical conditions)"

This seems like an interesting idea and a good way to inform the public about where things are at-I heard on the radio that a business owner was saying this provides more certainty and there had been a lot of worry with rumours of a nationwide lockdown (which so far is not happening in New Zealand).  Have other countries adopted similar systems?

[Tender Branson]

Nice chart.

Could also be a ranking of how good a country’s healthcare system is.

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699

[Tender Branson]

Austria:

2.664 positive cases as of 8am today.

That's an increase of 21% compared with 8am yesterday - which is a bit higher than the 19.5% increase the day before, but yesterday was a sunny warm day as well.

The weekend will be cold, the increase should be smaller under normal circumstances.

7 dead (+1).

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/philippenarval/status/1241123025292050434

[politicallefty]

Unfortunately, it looks like Spain is following Italy.

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241341087735783425

324 dead in the last 24 hours and another nearly 5k confirmed cases. I'm afraid New York isn't far behind.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Cases increase to 1,280, but the increase is bellow 30% for a 3rd day in a row. However, the number of deaths increased to 12 unfortunately.

Only 12% of cases are hospitalized, and 2% in the ICU. The rest is quarantined at home.

The number of tests has been growing by the day, as many city halls are putting up "drive through" testing centers, in which people leave their samples without leaving their cars and get a response via text message.

[parochial boy]

Nice chart.

Could also be a ranking of how good a country’s healthcare system is.

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699

I don't think so. The differing death rates at the moment is something that really stands out. On the one hand, you have the likes of the Nordic countries, the Germanic countries or Switzerland where the death rate is hovering around 1% or below. And on the other, you have (forgetting Italy) the Spain, France, UK, the Netherlands a bit; where it is more lie 3% or higher. I mean for sure, the countries in the first groups are generally richer than the second group, but I don't think "healthcare systems" even comes close to making a difference of a factor of 4-5 in terms of death rates. The French system in particular, has always had a very good reputation. So there is clearly more going on here.

And for case numbers, there are obviously other factors at work. Ticino is part of Lombardy, geographically speaking - and hugely economically dependent on it. So Switzerland was always going to walloped from the moment it became obvious what was going on in Italy.

[Tender Branson]

Nice chart.

Could also be a ranking of how good a country’s healthcare system is.

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699

I don't think so. The differing death rates at the moment is something that really stands out. On the one hand, you have the likes of the Nordic countries, the Germanic countries or Switzerland where the death rate is hovering around 1% or below. And on the other, you have (forgetting Italy) the Spain, France, UK, the Netherlands a bit; where it is more lie 3% or higher. I mean for sure, the countries in the first groups are generally richer than the second group, but I don't think "healthcare systems" even comes close to making a difference of a factor of 4-5 in terms of death rates. The French system in particular, has always had a very good reputation. So there is clearly more going on here.

And for case numbers, there are obviously other factors at work. Ticino is part of Lombardy, geographically speaking - and hugely economically dependent on it. So Switzerland was always going to walloped from the moment it became obvious what was going on in Italy.

True, but:

What about autopsies ?

There might be differences in how countries conduct autopsies on the dead to obtain causes of death.

In countries such as Austria or Germany, the number of autopsies performed in recent decades has fallen significantly.

How many patients dying of the common „flu“ are just buried without being tested for Corona here ?

🧐

I guess a lot here are being hidden as „flu deaths“, whereas other countries are testing and perform autopsies more thoroughly.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing with Covid-19 is that it isn't generally killing on its own, it's often doing it in combination with other conditions. If your lung function is already severely damaged, then any form of viral pneumonia could kill you.

[CumbrianLefty]

It won't kill many people (certainly those of non-pensionable age) on its own, but can cause serious long term effects in previously healthy individuals including permanent lung damage.

Another reason why trying to control it ASAP is the best policy.

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed. Although control is going to be difficult, considering how much the government advice is being ignored in some places.

[Tender Branson]

The Medical Science Lab at the University of Salzburg has created a medication that can reduce the most troubling symptoms of the Coronavirus by 90%:

According to a report by the Salzburg ORF, the Salzburg State Clinics have a new drug. This is said to reduce the effects of Covid 19 disease by up to 90 percent, says Primary Richard Greil.

According to Greil, the drug is used in the specialist and research department against cancer that he heads. That is why they have access to the drug: "The drug can slow down the so-called inflammatory storm. The corresponding data have not yet been published, but will be soon.

They show that a reduction in the severity of the disease by 90 percent can be achieved" , the primary is quoted by ORF. According to ORF Salzburg, a second drug is also available in the Salzburg clinic, which could even have a direct effect on the virus.

Link

Would be good if such helpful medication to prevent mass deaths would come here from Salzburg.

[Silent Hunter]

That will likely be the best solution in the medium-term. Short-term we will need social distancing.

If we can keep the global death toll below 1 million, it will be a success.

[President Johnson]

It won't kill many people (certainly those of non-pensionable age) on its own, but can cause serious long term effects in previously healthy individuals including permanent lung damage.

Another reason why trying to control it ASAP is the best policy.

I haven't read anything that covid-19 causes long term health damage among recovered patients. In mild cases, lungs aren't even affected by the disease since the virus primarily replicates in the throat.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1241412207516233734

The daily Italian numbers are a gut punch everyday. This is legit f-cking nightmarish.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, and several other countries including my own are a matter of weeks "behind" them

[President Johnson]

German state of Baden-Württemberg is now actively looking for capabilities to take French patients into our hospitals. French Alsace is severely affected by coronavirus and their hospitals are on the brink of collapse.

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1241412207516233734

The daily Italian numbers are a gut punch everyday. This is legit f-cking nightmarish.

This is a tragedy I don't even find any words for. What's the actual number of infected people in Italy? A million? I wouldn't be shocked if this was the case. The virus has probably spread since mid-January.

[Silent Hunter]

It won't kill many people (certainly those of non-pensionable age) on its own, but can cause serious long term effects in previously healthy individuals including permanent lung damage.

Another reason why trying to control it ASAP is the best policy.

I haven't read anything that covid-19 causes long term health damage among recovered patients. In mild cases, lungs aren't even affected by the disease since the virus primarily replicates in the throat.

It's too early to tell.

[Velasco]

Nice chart.

Could also be a ranking of how good a country’s healthcare system is.

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699

I don't think so. The differing death rates at the moment is something that really stands out. On the one hand, you have the likes of the Nordic countries, the Germanic countries or Switzerland where the death rate is hovering around 1% or below. And on the other, you have (forgetting Italy) the Spain, France, UK, the Netherlands a bit; where it is more lie 3% or higher. I mean for sure, the countries in the first groups are generally richer than the second group, but I don't think "healthcare systems" even comes close to making a difference of a factor of 4-5 in terms of death rates. The French system in particular, has always had a very good reputation. So there is clearly more going on here.

And for case numbers, there are obviously other factors at work. Ticino is part of Lombardy, geographically speaking - and hugely economically dependent on it. So Switzerland was always going to walloped from the moment it became obvious what was going on in Italy.

The low mortality rate in Germany is still a mistery. The factors in play could be:

1. It's possible the local virus outbreak is still in the first stages in Germany, while the outbreak in Italy was detected in an advanced stage. In case that's true, mortality rate is likely to increase in Germany, but it seems unlikely it reaches the Southern European levels

2. The average age of people infected in Germany is lower (46) than in Italy (fairly above 60). Mortality rate increases with age

3. Massive test availability in Germany compared to other countries. More tests imply lower mortality rate

Still, these factors only explain partially the German case

On a side note: Lombardy and Madrid are the richest regions in Italy and Spain, respectively