Calling it now: Trump wins re-election

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Bernie wins the nomination, the #NeverBernie crowd will stay home or write someone in costing him the election. If Bernie doesn't win, the #BernieOrBust crowd will stay home or write someone in costing Harris, Biden, or whoever other than Bernie, to lose the election.

I'm not trolling. I'm just saying I don't have much hope for 2020. The party is too divided to energetically unite under one candidate.

Democrats might as well begin preparing for 2024.

[TML]

What are you going to do if a Democrat does win?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are you going to do if a Democrat does win?

I will happily eat crow. But right now, I'm not very optimistic.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

It'd be a very Democratic Party-thing for us to do.

I agree that a major issue is the BernieBro crowd. I, personally, would be willing to stretch far-left and vote for Sanders. Can't say I have confidence that a BernieBro would get out the house for Kirsten or Kamala.

[adrac]

All of these things are just as true as they were in 2016. Hillary Clinton was less than 100k votes from winning the presidency. This is basically Trump's ceiling. Trump has done nothing to win over people's approval during his presidency, and that won't be changing, bar something catastrophic. The people who voted for Trump because he was the unknown evil, or because they thought he was the change candidate aren't going to do so again. People who voted third party because they thought Hillary was a shoe-in aren't going to do so again. The particularly loud voices of people yelling on the internet aren't going to change that.

[TML]

The problem with the premise of the NeverBernie crowd costing Bernie the election is as follows:

-Sanders has been consistently fighting for most of his core policy positions from the moment he got involved in federal politics, which means that more people would be attracted to him by his consistency than turned off by his actual policy positions.
-Sanders is anti-establishment, and we are still in an anti-establishment atmosphere (i.e. people don't like pro-establishment figures that much). Remember that many people voted for Trump simply because he portrayed himself as anti-establishment, even though they felt he was unqualified and/or atrocious. Sanders would be able to portray himself as an actual anti-establishment candidate as opposed to Trump's phony anti-establishmentism.
-Sanders' policy positions are actually more popular than people may think, even among people who identify with the Republican party and/or the moderate/conservative political ideologies (case in point: Missouri, which is a deeply Republican/conservative state, overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure increasing the minimum wage, even as it voted against its incumbent Democratic Senator).

Thus, while it may very well be true that there are some NeverBernie voters out there, I don't think this group will be significant enough to tip the election to Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah, it's the #NeverBernie camp that decide Trump is reasonable when he says one thing semi-lucid that are more dangerous.

But that's not what's gonna help Trump. Trump rallying to the max and convincing undecideds again via "both sides do-it" and "well at least I admit I'm a crook" is more likely. Maybe he'll have a "you forgot Poland" moment that lets the media decide to go easy on him.

[dw93]

I think it'll be close no matter who wins, unless sh*t really hits the fan over the next year and a half.

[Tender Branson]

Based on the evidence on the ground, it is more likely that Trump will lose re-election.

WI, MI and PA (maybe IA too) won't vote for him again, handing the Democrat the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren or Harris will win, they are creating so much energy with female voters in NH, a swing state. Va a govt state had been hit hard by shutdown

[Arnaud]

what a ridiculous thing to say. The party is not as much divided . it's not because jimy dore and some people with roses on twitter say so than it's the reality.

I expect than the nominee will have much more energy behind him or her than Clinton, thats for sure.

And anyway Sanders will not win the nomination.

[Arnaud]

And reminder to everyone, Clinton was short of only 80k votes in 3 states to be president. Trump is not magic and in 2018 the results closely matched his approval rating.

He's weak.

If we believe Democrats have no chance to beat Incumbent Trump, we will NEVER see another president loose re-election in the next 50 years.

[MABA 2020]

Democrats might as well begin preparing for 2024.

I understand being pessimistic but hey lets at least TRY to win next year

Even if Democrats are somewhat divided Trump isn't doing to well either and like plenty of people have said its not going to take many votes in PA, WI AND MI to turn things around.

[forgotten manatee]

I'll vote for Bernie Sanders if it means defeating Trump. I imagine many Clinton supporters who feel burned by the BernieBros stonewalling her in the general feel the same way. Defeating Trump is my biggest priority.

[Inmate Trump]

I would vote for a toothbrush before I’d vote for Trump.

Literally anyone the Democrats nominate will have my vote.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'm not trolling. I'm just saying I don't have much hope for 2020. The party is too divided to energetically unite under one candidate.

Lou (can I call you Lou?), this is nuts.  There are clearly some important differences of opinion in the Democratic party, but they are nothing compared to the divisions of the past.  And not even the distant past--I'm talking 2008, 2004, 1992, 1988, etc.  The party is probably more ideologically unified now than it's ever been, and the individuals competing for leadership are more cordial and cooperative than they've ever been.  A common enemy (Trump) does wonders to bring people together.

[Comrade Funk]

Let's hope jfern doesn't represent the majority of Bernie supporters. I have a feeling we'll be fine, disregarding a few of the hardcore Bernie diehards. This election is too important.

[Virginiá]

If Bernie wins the nomination, the #NeverBernie crowd will stay home or write someone in costing him the election. If Bernie doesn't win, the #BernieOrBust crowd will stay home or write someone in costing Harris, Biden, or whoever other than Bernie, to lose the election.

I'm not trolling. I'm just saying I don't have much hope for 2020. The party is too divided to energetically unite under one candidate.

Democrats might as well begin preparing for 2024.

The latter was the fear in 2016 and it didn't pan out. Why would it now? If anything, it's even less likely to be a problem, given that 4 years of a Trump presidency will have proven how much of a disaster he is.

[Joey1996]

Good thing those never Bernie and Bernie or bust people are just loud minorities, just like the never Obama people in 08 and the never Trump people in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its gonna be a similar election to 2012, which Obama won.  There is enough discontent out there

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I want to believe that the shutdown hurt him, or that not having the wall built by election day will hurt him, or that economic forecasts being kinda shxtty will hurt him, but he's the cockroach of American politics; absolutely nothing kills him.

So yeah, I'm pretty convinced that Trump gets re-elected.

[LabourJersey]

I want to believe that the shutdown hurt him, or that not having the wall built by election day will hurt him, or that economic forecasts being kinda shxtty will hurt him, but he's the cockroach of American politics; absolutely nothing kills him.

So yeah, I'm pretty convinced that Trump gets re-elected.

What exactly do you mean "nothing kills him"? He's the weakest president in history, his party lost by a sizable margin in the House this midterm, and he caved on the most crucial issue of his presidency.

I guess he can still get re-elected since we don't know what things will be like in November 2020, but the idea that he's invincible or something is wrong

[here2view]

I would vote for a toothbrush before I’d vote for Trump.

Literally anyone the Democrats nominate will have my vote.

[Zaybay]

Not only is this thread based off of an easily disprovable notion, but its also incredibly stupid. There isnt going to be some big split in the D party because, and this might shock you, Democrats seem to have some sort of greater enemy(cough Trump Cough. There will be defectors, there are always defectors, but I sincerely, really, really doubt that there will be such a mass defection to cause a Trump victory.

If he wins, it wont be because of that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The only way Donald Trump wins re-election is if Democrats are stupid enough to nominate Kamala Harris.