One of the most intriguing presidential match-up possibilities in history to me was Reagan vs. Hart. Hart being a much younger and more moderate alternative to Walter Mondale would have allowed him to connect to the younger and historically Democratic parts of the electorate (Allowing him to re-engage many southern Democrats, but not at '76 levels). His status as a western Democrat would have endeared him with many independents across the nation. I envision he would still lose to the incredibly popular Ronald Reagan, but the margin would have been significantly smaller than the actual election.
Reagan/Bush: 322 EVs (51%)Hart/Murtha: 216 EVs (48%)You begin to see the formation of the modern Democratic coalition, Western and Northeastern states plus the Great Lakes region. Hart is able to win back enough southern Democrats to carry Arkansas and Tennessee (Arkansas by around 5% and Tennessee by less than a point), and dominates Reagan in urban centers allowing him to carry NY, PA, IL, MD, WI, MA and MO. His status as a western Democratic senator wins him CO (his home state), NM, MT and that plus the evolving social views of the Pacific Northwest wins him OR and WA.
New England begins its leftward lurch with Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut being amongst the closest states all won by Reagan by under 5%.
I would imagine the closest states being IL, CA, VT, MT, MO and LA.
