Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[OBD]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?

2020 with quintupled trends lol

I see. Judging by your map, Biden wins by the margin which we would have expected. He probably carries North Carolina here, in addition to all of the states which he actually did win. Trump certainly wins Florida (and by more than he did in reality), and Texas would be a pure tossup. I'm assuming Alaska would be a tossup as well, given the extent to which Biden improved there over Clinton.

Wait, sorry, I meant quintupled swings. Slip in verbage

[Calthrina950]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?

2020 with quintupled trends lol

I see. Judging by your map, Biden wins by the margin which we would have expected. He probably carries North Carolina here, in addition to all of the states which he actually did win. Trump certainly wins Florida (and by more than he did in reality), and Texas would be a pure tossup. I'm assuming Alaska would be a tossup as well, given the extent to which Biden improved there over Clinton.

Wait, sorry, I meant quintupled swings. Slip in verbage

That's fine. But are my guesses correct? Except that I see the North Carolina Black Belt is more Republican, so that could complicate matters there.

[OBD]

Enjoy.

What does this depict?

2020 with quintupled trends lol

I see. Judging by your map, Biden wins by the margin which we would have expected. He probably carries North Carolina here, in addition to all of the states which he actually did win. Trump certainly wins Florida (and by more than he did in reality), and Texas would be a pure tossup. I'm assuming Alaska would be a tossup as well, given the extent to which Biden improved there over Clinton.

Wait, sorry, I meant quintupled swings. Slip in verbage

That's fine. But are my guesses correct? Except that I see the North Carolina Black Belt is more Republican, so that could complicate matters there.

As swings are quintipled, this is actually a Biden landslide - by my mental math, he wins the popular vote by over 14. Your guesses are correct though - Texas goes to Biden by 4-5 points, Alaska definitely goes to Biden (though I'm a little unsure how that map looks), and Trump obliterates Biden in Florida. The Black Belt shifting right ultimately doesn't do anything, as Biden improves by enough in the burbs to completely offset that.

[SingingAnalyst]

1948 with CA, NY, OH flipped


Truman 301, Dewey 192, Thurmond 38

1952 with KY and TN flipped:


Eisenhower 441, Stevenson 90

1956 with MO, TN flipped:


Eisenhower 459, Stevenson 72

1960: CA, HI, IL flipped:


Kennedy 317, Nixon 212

[SingingAnalyst]

1964, AZ and ID flipped:


Johnson 487, Goldwater 51

1976 with IA, ME, OH, OR flipped:


Carter 290, Ford 248

[SingingAnalyst]

2000: flip FL, IA, NH, NM, OR, WI:


Bush 272, Gore 266

Under the alternative scenario in my last 3 posts to this thread:
1. There would have been no Eisenhower - Stevenson states and only two Stevenson - Eisenhower states, LA and WV.
2. TN would have been a Stevenson 1952 and 1956 - Nixon 1960 state.
3. Idaho would have a Republican streak going back to 1952.
4. Iowa, Oregon and Wisconsin would have been Carter 1976 - Bush 2000 states outside the South.
5. New Hampshire would have a Democratic streak going back to 1992 after being tied for the 2nd most Republican state in 1988.

[CookieDamage]

2001 Gen. Election

[CookieDamage]

1986 General Election

[CookieDamage]

1988 United States Presidential Election: Fmr. Pres. Carter vs. VP Bush

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the presidential election results by congressional district in the Ferguson Scenario. I recently calculated the results for the redrawn districts in North Carolina used this year. Thus, this map depicts the districts as they were used this year. As noted before, it very much resembles the 1964 presidential results map. Ferguson wins 370 districts and Pryor 65.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

PRIME MINISTERS of the UNITED STATES
Albert Arnold Gore (Democratic, Tennessee | Democratic minority) 2000–2004
George Walker Bush (Republican, Texas | Republican majority) 2004–2008
Barack Hussein Obama (Democratic, Illinois | Democratic majority) 2008–2016
Hillary Dianne Rodham Clinton (Democratic, New York | Democratic minority) 2016–2019
Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware | Democratic minority) 2019–2020
Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware | Democratic majority) 2020–present

2020 United States general election
All 436 seats in the House of Commons
219 seats needed for a majority


Democratic (Joseph Robinette Biden) 226 seats (+11), 51.4% votes (+3.2%)
Republican (Donald John Trump) 209 seats (-4), 46.9% votes (+0.8%)
Libertarian (Jo Jorgenson) 1 seat (-5), 1.2% votes (-2.1%)
Green (Howard Gresham Hawkins) 0 seats (-1), 0.3% votes (-0.8%)
Others (Various) 0 seats (-1), 0.2% votes (-1.1%)

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont

LOL Ohio.

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont

LOL Ohio.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

How would things look if things swung like Utah?

[CookieDamage]

1988 Election

1992 Election

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

How would things look if things swung like Utah?

Same state map as Hawaii. It's a difference of only 0.36 points in favor of Democrats, which isn't enough to overturn a very narrow Trump PV win of 0.27 points.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

What about Henry County, Georgia?

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

What about Henry County, Georgia?

Enough to not only flip OH/IA but also AK and a real surprise in SC.

[Chips]

If the country swung like Miami-Dade:

[bagelman]

Here's how all the states effect 2020:

1. Hawaii, Utah, and Florida. The Terrible Trio. Trump flips Nevada and holds all other states. Democrats manage to flip NE-02 so Trump only gains 5 EV from 2016. 311-227 R. However, Trump wins the popular vote. In the case of Florida it's by a margin of 0.07 points.

2. Arkansas and California: Same as above but Democrats win the popular vote yet again. 2016 redux.

3. Nevada (and DC): Democrats flip Michigan but Trump holds every else that matters. Nevada stays with Democrats by 8 individual votes; there is a Trumpist protest in the state as a result, just to add insult to injury. 289-249 R.

4. Ohio, Illinois, New York, Idaho, Louisiana: Democrats flip Michigan but Trump holds every else that matters. Trump comes close to flipping Nevada but fails for OH/IL. Democrats come close to flipping Pennsylvania, to hang the electoral college, but fail for ID/LA. Same EV total.

5. Iowa, Mississippi, Wisconsin: Democrats flip Pennsylvania (and NE-02) but lose Wisconsin, hanging the electoral college. Their come from behind victory in the state, especially in the IA scenario, keeps the result unknown for weeks. Big protesting on both sides. Democrats are livid about Wisconsin's very narrow margin and at the prospect of Pelosi personally having to reelect Trump.

6. New Jersey, Pennsylvania: Democrats flip Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and win 279-259. Bare minimum victory.

7. 15 other states, including Michigan, the Carolinas, and Texas: the 306-232 result of OTL.

8. 9 other states, including Arizona and Georgia: Democrats flip North Carolina, gaining a 321-217 EC victory.

9. Kansas: Florida gives Trump the 2000 treatment, giving Democrats a 350-188 EC win. Lots of Gore/Trump voters in Carbon County PA and northeast Ohio are furious, but Florida's counts and recounts are generally ignored due to the decided nature of the election.

10: 7 other states, including Nebraska, Maine, and Delaware: Same map as #9 but no drama in Florida.

11. Colorado and Vermont: Texas flips, Democrats win 388-150. Ohio and Iowa are stubbornly out of reach, sadly, as is ME-02. Elsewhere Democrats treat this as an Obama '08 style victory.

[bagelman]

If each state swung like the strongest D swing for Biden. Added lots of extra data for hovering over.

[bagelman]

Same for largest R swing

[bagelman]

Most recent gubernatorial results with flips since 2018. KY flipped in 2019 and is neutralized by WV/MT in 2020.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1972