Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1832


1836


1840


1844


1848


1852

[Calthrina950]

Here is the final revised version of the Ferguson Scenario map by county:

Again, all counties are won by absolute majority, emulating the 1868 election, which is the last election to date in OTL where no counties were won with a plurality. The county breakdown is the same: 2,326 counties for Ferguson and 817 for Pryor.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Inspired by Calthrina's Ferguson scenario, I decided to make the most reasonably insane landslide I could. I made an OC tailor-made for politics, and put the GOP in the weakest position possible.

James Roberts Smith (b. 1965)

USAF Pilot & Officer: 1986-1992 (reserves 1992-2011), top rank of Major General
-1 Medal of Honor for actions in the Gulf War
-17 other awards

B.S.c. USAF Academy
M.A. from Harvard

U.S. Representative: January 3, 1993-January 3, 1997
U.S. Senator: January 3, 1997-January 3, 2009
-Chair of the Armed Forces Committee: 2001-2003, 2007-2009

2008:

PV: Edwards +2.9%

2012:

PV: Smith +11.2

SMITH FIRST TERM:
Unemployment: 11.1% -> 3.5%
Uninsured: 19.2% -> 0.5%
Debt: $18B -> $19B (down much more in GDP% terms)
Deficit: $1.4 Trillion -> $400 Billion
GDP Growth Rate: 0.9% -> 4.9%
Average Tax Rate: 12.2% -> 12.5%
Top Tax Rate: 35% on $500,000+ -> 55% on $15,000,000+
Corporate Tax: 22% -> 22.5% but enforced
Estate Tax: N/A -> 5% on $5,000,000+, 10% on $15,000,000+, 15% on $73,500,000+
Health Care/Capita: $11,000 -> $6,500
Job Approvals: 59% -> 80%

2016 ELECTION:

PV: Smith +24.1%

County Maps incoming.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised version of the results by congressional district map in the Ferguson Scenario:

I had to go through and recalculate the districts, as I found that many of my prior calculations were erroneous. They are all correct now, and I have them available in a Google spreadsheet, which can be found here. Ferguson wins 367 congressional districts (84.36%), while Pryor carries 68 congressional districts (15.64%). Ferguson wins every congressional district in 34 states, including in every New England state. The majority of Pryor's districts (52) are in the South. Outside of the South, Pryor carries 9 districts in California, two districts in Arizona and Indiana each, and one district each in Idaho and Nebraska, for a total of 15 non-southern districts. Pryor's best district outside of the South is CA-50 in the suburbs and exurbs of San Diego County, where he wins 60.25%-39.68%.

Ferguson carries the majority of congressional districts in every state that he wins except for Florida and Idaho. In Florida, he wins 13 congressional districts to Pryor's 14. In Idaho, Ferguson and Pryor each carry one congressional district. All seven at-large congressional districts vote for Ferguson, corresponding with their state votes. 434 of the 435 congressional districts are won with an absolute majority, resembling how every county and every state is won with an absolute majority. The sole exception to this is VA-05, where Ferguson beats Pryor by a mere 88 votes (49.84-49.82%). That is the closest congressional district in the country and Ferguson's closest win. Pryor's closest victory is in CA-45 (Orange County), where he beats Ferguson by 860 votes (50.10% to 49.84%).

Ferguson's four best districts are MI-13 (97.50%), NY-15 (96.70%), PA-03 (93.85%), and MI-14 (92.64%), all of which are majority-minority districts in Detroit, Philadelphia, and New York City. Pryor's four best districts are GA-09 (77.59%), AL-06 (72.50%), GA-14 (71.78%), and AL-04 (71.53%), all of which are predominantly rural or exurban districts in the Deep South. Comparing to the OTL 2016 election, Pryor wins five districts carried by Hillary Clinton (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, and VA-10), while Ferguson wins 168 districts carried by Donald Trump. All of the Clinton-won districts elected Republicans at the House level in 2016 and flipped to the Democrats in 2018.

[BigVic]

2012

Romney wins CO by a tight margin but the Senate is as it is OTL as well as a narrow popular vote win.



Fmr Gov. W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) 275 (49.4%)
President Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/VP Joseph R. Biden, Jr (D-DE) 263 (48.8%)



Fmr Sec of State Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Governor John W. Hickenlooper(D-CO) 373 (46.1%)
President W. Mitt Romney (R-UT)/Vice Pres Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) 144 (32.5%)
Mr. Donald J. Trump (IR-NY)/Fmr Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (IR-GA) 20 (16.3%)

2016

Trump runs as 3rd party splitting the GOP vote. Romney registers as a Utah voter during his term and returns to his home state.

Due to Republican vote splitting, Romney suffers the same fate as George H W Bush losing to a Clinton with a Businessman as third party Independent.

[WPADEM]

2012

Romney wins CO by a tight margin but the Senate is as it is OTL.





2016 with President Romney

Trump runs as 3rd party splitting the GOP vote. Clinton picks Vilsack as running mate allowing her to do well in the rust belt.

With a Republican split, is Hillary elected with a majority in he PV or not?

[BigVic]

2012

Romney wins CO by a tight margin but the Senate is as it is OTL.





2016 with President Romney

Trump runs as 3rd party splitting the GOP vote. Clinton picks Vilsack as running mate allowing her to do well in the rust belt.

With a Republican split, is Hillary elected with a majority in he PV or not?

Just a plurality as what happened to her husband in 1992

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

37. Barry Goldwater (R): January 20, 1969-January 20, 1977
38. John Ashbrook (R): January 20, 1977-August 10, 1980
39. Paul Laxalt (R): August 10, 1980-January 20, 1985
40. Ronald Reagan (R): January 20, 1985-December 31, 1991
41. Dan Quayle (R): December 31, 1991-January 20, 1997
42. William Cohen (D): January 20, 1997-January 20, 2005
43. George W. Bush (R): January 20, 2005-January 20, 2009
44. Barack Obama (D): January 20, 2009-January 20, 2017
45. Joe Biden (D): January 20, 2017-Present

1968:

Goldwater/Ashbrook (R): 276 EV/ 39.4% PV
Humphrey/Muskie (D): 218 EV/ 42.2% PV
McGovern/McCarthy (L): 44 EV/ 16.6% PV

1972:

Goldwater/Ashbrook (R): 270 EV/ 45.9% PV
McGovern/Chisholm (D): 268 EV/ 50.2% PV

1976:

Ashbrook/Laxalt (R): 271 EV/ 47.0% PV
Chisholm/McCarthy (D): 267 EV/ 50.5% PV

1980:

Laxalt/Reagan (R): 274 EV/ 46.2% PV
McCarthy/Muskie (D): 264 EV/ 52.9% PV

1984:

Reagan/Scott (R): 270 EV/ 45.5% PV
Muskie/Ferraro (D): 268 EV/ 53.0% PV

1988:

Reagan/Quayle (R): 274 EV/ 43.3% PV
Ferraro/Lee Ray (D): 254 EV/ 50.0% PV
Brown/Nader (H): 10 EV/ 6.4% PV

1992:

Quayle/Bush (R): 278 EV/ 35.8% PV
Clinton/Carey (D): 260 EV/ 42.0% PV
Perot/Wilder (L): 0 EV/ 22.0% PV

1996:

Cohen/Gore (D): 520 EV/ 62.1% PV
Bush/Dole (R): 18 EV/ 36.6% PV

2000:

Cohen/Gore (D): 533 EV/ 68.5% PV
Buchanan/Duke (R): 5 EV/ 29.8% PV

2004:

Bush/Danforth (R): 270 EV/ 44.4% PV
Gore/Kerry (D): 268 EV/ 53.0% PV

2008:

Obama/Bayh (D): 459 EV/ 56.6% PV
Bush/Danforth (R): 79 EV/ 42.2% PV

2012:

Obama/Bayh (D): 426 EV/ 54.9% PV
Romney/Ryan (R): 112 EV/ 43.0% PV

2016:

Biden/Harris (D): 335 EV/ 53.0% PV
Cruz/Walker (R): 203 EV/ 43.4% PV

2020:

Biden/Harris (D): 413 EV (NUT)/ 53.3% PV
Pence/Walker (R): 125 EV/ 42.0% PV

[Calthrina950]

Pushing on, here's a map of the Presidential-House Winner by District, in the Ferguson Scenario:



As can be seen, 283 districts (65.05%) voted for both President Ferguson and a Democratic Representative. 84 districts (19.31%) split between President Ferguson and a Republican Representative. 55 districts (12.64%) voted for both Senator Pryor and a Republican Representative, while 13 districts (3.00%) split between Senator Pryor and a Democratic Representative. Ferguson thus won 96% of the Democratic-held House seats and 60% of the Republican-held House seats, while Pryor won 40% of the Republican-held House seats and 4% of the Democratic-held House Seats.

The most Democratic Republican congressional district carried by Ferguson is IL-10 (Lake County, northern suburbs of Cook County), which Ferguson won 64.85% to 35.15%. This was the district represented by Bob Dold in OTL at intervals between 2011 and 2017. The most Republican Democratic congressional district carried by Pryor is FL-02 in the Florida Panhandle, which Pryor wins 64.04% to 35.96%. In the Ferguson Scenario, as I've noted above, Republicans continue to do well in the suburbs and Blue or Yellow Dog Democrats still do well in rural areas.

There are fourteen congressional districts where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote that are won by Republicans at the House level. These are (in addition to IL-10), AZ-02 (Tuscon suburbs), CA-03 (Sacramento Valley), CA-09 (Stockton), CA-24 (Santa Barbara), CA-26 (Ventura), MD-06 (Western Maryland), MI-11 (Detroit suburbs), MO-02 (St. Louis suburbs), NY-21 (Northern New York), NY-24 (Rochester), PA-01 (Bucks), PA-07 (Allentown), and TX-21 (San Antonio-Austin suburbs).

Pryor receives more than 60% of the vote in two congressional districts won by Democrats-FL-02 (Florida Panhandle) and MS-04 (Gulf Coast). Again, these two districts would be held down by Blue Dog Democrats, congressmen who lost in the 2010 Tea Party wave in OTL but remain entrenched in TTL.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1828

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

2022 Midterms:

SENATE:

R: 52 (+2)
D: 48 (-2)

HOUSE:
R: 232 (+20)
D: 203 (-20)

2024:

DeSantis/Noem (R): 278 EV/ 47.7% PV
Biden/Harris (D-inc): 260 EV/ 51.0% PV (+6.3M votes)

SENATE:

R: 55 (+3)
D: 45 (-3)

HOUSE:
R: 224 (-8)
D: 211 (+8)

2026:

SENATE:

D: 51 (+6)
R: 49 (-6)

HOUSE:
D: 241 (+30)
R: 194 (-30)

2028:

Abrams/Pappas (D): 377 EV/ 53.4% PV (+15.4M votes)
DeSantis/Noem (R-inc): 161 EV/ 44.9% PV

SENATE:

D: 57 (+6)
R: 43 (-6)

HOUSE:
D: 244 (+3)
R: 191 (-3)

LIST OF PRESIDENTS:
46. Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D): January 20, 2021-January 20, 2025
2020: def. Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R-inc)
47. Ron DeSantis/Kirsti Noem (R): January 20, 2025-January 20, 2029
2024: def. Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D-inc)
48. Stacey Abrams/Chris Pappas (D): January 20, 2029-Present (2030)
2028: def. Ron DeSantis/Kirsti Noem (R-inc)

LIST OF HOUSE SPEAKERS:
Nancy Pelosi (D): January 3, 2019-January 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy (R): January 3, 2023-January 3, 2027
Joaquin Castro (D): January 3, 2027-Present (2030)

LIST OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADERS:
Chuck Schumer (D): January 20, 2021-January 3, 2023
Mitch McConnell (R): January 3, 2023-January 3, 2027
Chuck Schumer (D): January 3, 2027-Present (2030)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1836 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Vice President Martin Van Buren (Democratic Republican, New York) Representative Richard Mentor Johnson (Democratic Republican, Kentucky)		125		48.8
Former Senator William Henry Harrison (Whig, Ohio) Representative Francis Granger (Whig, New York)		103		38.1
Senator Hugh Lawson White (State Rights, Tennessee) Senator John Tyler (State Rights, Virginia)		41		10.2
Senator Daniel Webster (Whig, Massachusetts) Representative Francis Granger (Whig, New York)		14		2.7
Senator Willie Person Magnum (State Rights, North Carolina) Senator John Tyler (State Rights, Virginia)		11		—

1837 U.S. contingent election (21st ballot)

[LabourJersey]

1940 Presidential Election in a world where Hitler doesn't invade France until spring 1941:

[BigVic]

2022 Midterms:

SENATE:

R: 52 (+2)
D: 48 (-2)

HOUSE:
R: 232 (+20)
D: 203 (-20)

2024:

DeSantis/Noem (R): 278 EV/ 47.7% PV
Biden/Harris (D-inc): 260 EV/ 51.0% PV (+6.3M votes)

SENATE:

R: 55 (+3)
D: 45 (-3)

HOUSE:
R: 224 (-8)
D: 211 (+8)

2026:

SENATE:

D: 51 (+6)
R: 49 (-6)

HOUSE:
D: 241 (+30)
R: 194 (-30)

2028:

Abrams/Pappas (D): 377 EV/ 53.4% PV (+15.4M votes)
DeSantis/Noem (R-inc): 161 EV/ 44.9% PV

SENATE:

D: 57 (+6)
R: 43 (-6)

HOUSE:
D: 244 (+3)
R: 191 (-3)

LIST OF PRESIDENTS:
46. Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D): January 20, 2021-January 20, 2025
2020: def. Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R-inc)
47. Ron DeSantis/Kirsti Noem (R): January 20, 2025-January 20, 2029
2024: def. Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D-inc)
48. Stacey Abrams/Chris Pappas (D): January 20, 2029-Present (2030)
2028: def. Ron DeSantis/Kirsti Noem (R-inc)

LIST OF HOUSE SPEAKERS:
Nancy Pelosi (D): January 3, 2019-January 3, 2023
Kevin McCarthy (R): January 3, 2023-January 3, 2027
Joaquin Castro (D): January 3, 2027-Present (2030)

LIST OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADERS:
Chuck Schumer (D): January 20, 2021-January 3, 2023
Mitch McConnell (R): January 3, 2023-January 3, 2027
Chuck Schumer (D): January 3, 2027-Present (2030)

I can see this happening. When was the last time there were 3 straight one-term Presidents

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1848 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Senator Lewis Cass (Democratic, Michigan) General William Orlando Butler (Democratic, Ohio)		115		38.3
General Zachary Taylor (Whig, Louisiana) State Comptroller Millard Fillmore (Whig, New York)		88		35.1
Former President Martin Van Buren (Free Soil, New York) Representative Abraham Lincoln (Free Soil, Illinois)		87		26.6

1849 U.S. contingent election (53rd ballot)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1892 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Former President Stephen Grover Cleveland (Democratic, New York) Representative Adlai Ewing Stevenson I (Democratic, Illinois)		244		48.8%
President Benjamin Harrison (Republican–People's, Indiana) Governor Horace Boies (Republican–People's, Iowa)		200		48.7%
Representative William McKinley (National Republican, Ohio) Senator Matthew Stanley Quay (National Republican, Pennsylvania		0		1.9%

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1912 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Former President Theodore Roosevelt (Republican, New York) Governor Herbert Spencer Hadley (Republican, Missouri)		351		50.4
Governor Thomas Woodrow Wilson (Democratic, New Jersey) Governor Thomas Riley Marshall (Democratic, Indiana)		180		42.0
Former State Senator Eugene Victor Debs (Socialist, Indiana) Mayor Emil Seidel (Socialist, Wisconsin)		0		6.0

[Agonized-Statism]

Snip

Really wish the US would use this color scheme (blue = conservative, yellow/gold = liberal, red = socialist) like the rest of the world, lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

1. Jefferson Davis (D): 1861-1868
2. Alexander Stephens (D): 1868-1874
3. John Breckenridge (D): 1874-1880
4. Nathan Forrest (D): 1880-1886
5. Thomas Jackson (N): 1886-1892
6. James Seddon (N): 1892-1893
7. Benjamin Tillman (N): 1893-1910
8. Woodrow Wilson (D): 1910-1916
9. William McAdoo (D): 1916-1922
10. James Vardaman (N): 1922-1928
11. Alfred Hampton (N): 1928-1934
12. Huey Long (D): 1934-1946

1867:

✓Stephens/Breckenridge (D): 85 EV
Toombs/Randolph (D): 35 EV

1873:

✓Breckenridge/Forrest (D): 98 EV
Randolph/Benjamin (D): 22 EV

1879:

✓Forrest/Longstreet (D): 113 EV
Benjamin/Randolph (D): 7 EV

1885:

✓Jackson/Seddon (N): 100 EV
Longstreet/James (D): 36 EV

1891:

✓Seddon/Tillman (N): 71 EV
James/Johnson (D): 65 EV

1897:

✓Tillman/Vardaman (N): 73 EV
Adams/King (D): 69 EV

1903:

✓Tillman/Vardaman (N): UNOPPOSED

1909:

✓Wilson/James (D): 94 EV
Tillman/Vardaman (N): 39 EV

1915:

✓McAdoo/Glass (D): 142 EV/ 64.9% PV
Tillman/Hampton (N): 31 EV/ 31.9% PV

1921:

✓Vardaman/Hampton (N): 91 EV/ 45.9% PV
Glass/Johnson (D): 82 EV/ 53.3% PV

1927:

✓Hampton/Byrd (N): 88 EV/ 47.1% PV
Johnson/Long (D): 85 EV/ 50.9% PV

1933:

✓Long/Daniels (D): 159 EV/ 74.5% PV
Hampton/Byrd (N): 8 EV/ 21.1% PV

1939:

✓Long/Daniels (D): 167 EV/ 82.9% PV
Byrd/Rockwell (N): 0 EV/ 13.5% PV

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1824 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Governor DeWitt Clinton (Republican, New York)		71		30.4
Secretary of State John Quincy Adams (Republican, Massachusetts)		55		23.7
Speaker of the House of Representatives Henry Clay (Republican, Kentucky)		42		15.0
Secretary of the Treasury William Harris Crawford (Republican, Georgia)		41		9.2
Senator Andrew Jackson (Republican, Tennessee)		38		13.2
Secretary of War John Caldwell Calhoun (Republican, South Carolina)		14		2.0

1825 U.S. contingent election

[Chips]

Jimmy Carter (1976) vs. George H.W Bush (1988) by state.



Wisconsin is the closest state, with Bush edging it out by 7,267 votes. Pennsylvania is the closest state on the Carter side, with him netting 28,610 more votes than Bush.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

1800 United States presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
President John Adams (Whig, Massachusetts)		99		70.4
Vice President Thomas Jefferson (Whig, Virginia)		97		—
Former Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton (Ultra-federalist, New York)		39		29.6
Former U.S. Minister to France Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Ultra-federalist, South Carolina)		38		—
Others		3		—

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

snip

1852 U.S. presidential election

		E.V.		Pop. %
Senator Thomas Hart Benton (Free Soil, Missouri) Senator Salmon Portland Chase (Free Soil, Ohio)		128		36.1
Secretary of State James Buchanan (Democratic, Pennsylvania Senator William Rufus King (Democratic, Alabama)		127		31.4
Senator Daniel Webster (Whig, Massachusetts) Senator William Alexander Graham (Whig, Georgia)		41		28.8
Mr. Lysander Spooner (Liberty Union, Massachusetts) Rev. Charles C. Foote (Liberty Union, Michigan)		0		2.0

1853 U.S. contingent election (60th ballot)

[BigVic]

2004 - Kerry scrapes in. Wins OH by a hair after a few recounts as well as holding onto NM and IA



Sen. John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Sen. John Edwards (D-SC) 284 (49.8%)
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/VP Richard B. Cheney (R-WY) 254 (48.7%)


How 2008 would look after 4 years of Kerry. Pawlenty was one of McCain's shortlists for Veep in OTL and helped McCain win MN for the first time since 1972 and WI For the first time since 1984. Also John Edwards declines to be running mate after a scandal broke out just before the DNC



Sen. John S. McCain III (R-AZ)/Gov Timothy J Pawlenty (R-MN) 326 (52.8%)
Pres John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Senator Blanche Linchol (D-AR) 212 (47.1%)

2012 - incumbent President John McCain faces a GOP split with the Tea Party faction causing Obama to win the biggest Democratic landslide since LBJ in 1964. Also Kathleen Sebelius becomes the first female VP



Sen. Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/Gov Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) 463 (43.6%)
Pres John S. McCain III (R-AZ) /VP Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) 43 (28.34%)
Rep. Michele Bachman (T-MN) /Sen. Jim DeMint (T-SC) 32 (22.7%)
Rep. Ronald E. Paul (L-TX)/Fmr Gov. Mark Sanford (L-SC) 0 (5.9%)

[Sir Mohamed]

No term limits, Bill Clinton keeps running for reelection.

2000



✓ President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 338 EVs.; 50.7%
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Def. Sec. Dick Cheney (R-WY): 200 EVs.; 47.3%


2004



✓ President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 285 EVs.; 49.8%
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Def. Sec. Dick Cheney (R-WY): 253 EVs.; 49.2%


2008



✓ Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Former Senator Bill Frist (R-TN): 285 EVs.; 50.4%
President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 253 EVs.; 47.9%