PPP-CO/NC/AZ/GA/IA/AK/ME(January 7th-9th, 2019): Approvals

[Zaybay]

This was posted a couple weeks ago, but it is the most recent information we have on these races.

Colorado: Gardner 30% approve, 47% disapprove (-17)

North Carolina: Tillis 34% approve, 40% disapprove (-6)

Arizona: McSally 37% approve, 41% disapprove (-4)

Georgia: Perdue 40% approve, 39% disapprove (+1)

Iowa: Ernst 45% approve, 42% disapprove (+3)

Alaska: Sullivan 41% approve, 41% disapprove (0)

Maine: Collins 45% approve, 43% disapprove (+2)

[MT Treasurer]

I love how Ernst has better numbers than Perdue and Sullivan even though everyone thinks IA is more likely to flip than AK/GA, lol.

[DaWN]

A few observations:

Looks like we can add '30% approval rating' to the 'Reasons why Gardner is DOA' list

Not great for Tillis, but not abysmal either.

Also not great for McSally, but not exactly unsurprising.

Mixed for Perdue. Being above water is a good sign but being at 40% not so much.

Not bad for Ernst, but she's not unbeatable.

Sullivan will probably be fine

Dems need to go to work on Collins now. Not as the election season hots up, not after the primary, not after Labor day - start destroying her image now. I think we can all guess whether this'll happen or not.

[UncleSam]

A few observations:

Looks like we can add '30% approval rating' to the 'Reasons why Gardner is DOA' list

Not great for Tillis, but not abysmal either.

Also not great for McSally, but not exactly unsurprising.

Mixed for Perdue. Being above water is a good sign but being at 40% not so much.

Not bad for Ernst, but she's not unbeatable.

Sullivan will probably be fine

Dems need to go to work on Collins now. Not as the election season hots up, not after the primary, not after Labor day - start destroying her image now. I think we can all guess whether this'll happen or not.

Has it occurred to you that maybe a political party can’t just snap its’ fingers and destroy someone’s image? I’m sure if the Dems were spending millions in Maine they could boost her unfavorables a bit but they’d probably also boost her favorables a bit, and there’s a definitely voter backlash to excessive negative ads anyway, particularly during non-election season.

Like it could work, but the notion that Dems spending millions right now is absolutely necessary or effective is highly questionable. You need some subject matter for ads generally, and Collins has not given them a ton to work with. Her unfavorables are already at 43% - fairly high, and indicates that there is a large disaffected left-leaning voter base ready to vote for pretty much any Dem against her. I kind of doubt that the 12% or so in the middle on her would be highly persuadable by ads at this point in time.

[Xing]

I love how Ernst has better numbers than Perdue and Sullivan even though everyone thinks IA is more likely to flip than AK/GA, lol.

It's not unreasonable to think that Trump will do significantly better in AK than IA, and in the case of GA, Democrats need to crack 50%. I'd say that Perdue is a bit more vulnerable than Ernst, but who are Democrats even going to run in AK?

[Zaybay]

I love how Ernst has better numbers than Perdue and Sullivan even though everyone thinks IA is more likely to flip than AK/GA, lol.

It's not unreasonable to think that Trump will do significantly better in AK than IA, and in the case of GA, Democrats need to crack 50%. I'd say that Perdue is a bit more vulnerable than Ernst, but who are Democrats even going to run in AK?

Actually, Dems have a pretty obvious candidate for that seat. Ethan Berkowitz, Mayor of AK.

Also, I seriously dont get how you can see Perdue as more vulnerable than Ernst, considering she is only at +3 to Perdue's +1, and GA has more inelastic voters who will come home, while IA is more elastic and willing to swing against incumbents and parties.

[Xing]

I love how Ernst has better numbers than Perdue and Sullivan even though everyone thinks IA is more likely to flip than AK/GA, lol.

It's not unreasonable to think that Trump will do significantly better in AK than IA, and in the case of GA, Democrats need to crack 50%. I'd say that Perdue is a bit more vulnerable than Ernst, but who are Democrats even going to run in AK?

Actually, Dems have a pretty obvious candidate for that seat. Ethan Berkowitz, Mayor of AK.

Also, I seriously dont get how you can see Perdue as more vulnerable than Ernst, considering she is only at +3 to Perdue's +1, and GA has more inelastic voters who will come home, while IA is more elastic and willing to swing against incumbents and parties.

But could Berkowitz really overperform the Democratic ticket enough to really have a shot at winning? Unlike 95% of this forum, I don't think it's impossible for IA to vote to the left of GA, but I would say it's unlikely. Georgia might be inelastic, but it's getting to the point where the persuadable voters are enough for Democrats to win, though they'll need some wind at their back. I think both Ernst and Perdue are going to perform similarly to Trump in the two states.

[MAINEiac4434]

HOLY CRAP FINALLY A LEGIT POLE SHOWING COLLINS TREADING WATER

A few observations:

Dems need to go to work on Collins now. Not as the election season hots up, not after the primary, not after Labor day - start destroying her image now. I think we can all guess whether this'll happen or not.

Some PAC is already running ads saying she “pretends to be independent” but that she “does Steve Mitch McConnell tells her.”