VA-Gov polls

[ian]

VA-Gov: More stretch-run polls

Mason-Dixon. 11/2-3. MoE 4%. Likely Voters. (10/18-20 results)
Kaine (D) 45
Kilgore (R) 44
Rasmussen. 11/2. MoE 3%. Likely Voters. (10/27 results)
Kaine (D) 49 (46)
Kilgore (R) 46 (44)

from Daily Kos

[Flying Dog]

Kaine seems to have a consistent 1-4% lead in all the latest polls. Uh Oh I'm getting my hopes up again.

[Ben.]

Kaine seems to have a consistent 1-4% lead in all the latest polls. Uh Oh I'm getting my hopes up again.

Same here... I hope it doesn’t all end in tears as per usual

But I always maintained that Kaine would get a second wind towards the end of the campaign, much as Carl dismissed the idea, though I never said it would mean Kaine would win, the signs are encouraging that this “second wind” has come just at the right time for Kaine. 

[Flying Dog]

Kaine's odds on tradesports is increasing. Kilgore's are decreasing

[Ben.]

Kaine's odds on tradesports is increasing. Kilgore's are decreasing

Please let us win somthing, just this once please! Is that too much to ask?

[Alcon]

Mason-Dixon has only Kaine +1?

I'm worried.  If the GOP GOTV is as it usually is, even if Mason-Dixon is dead-on (which it usually is), Election Day could be something different.

[Ben.]

Mason-Dixon has only Kaine +1?

I'm worried.  If the GOP GOTV is as it usually is, even if Mason-Dixon is dead-on (which it usually is), Election Day could be something different.

Very True.

[Platypus]

How organised is the GOP in Virginia? I thought they were only realy strong in the swing states.

[Alcon]

How organised is the GOP in Virginia? I thought they were only realy strong in the swing states.

I believe, prior to Virginia's last gubernatoral election, polls were showing a range of the Democrat up about 5-7 points than they actually won by.  Mason-Dixon, I believe, had it up by 2 than they actually won by a few days before the election.  Of course, in this case, that result would matter.  I get the impression that was thanks in part to the GOP GOTV in the state.  I doubt they did as much for the 2004 Presidential election as they will for Tuesday.  It depends on what their internal polls are showing.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I have friends who drove 650 miles from Memphis to Roanoke to volunteer for Kilgore.  I got an e-mail from one of them today and he said their GOTV operation is amazing.

[Ben.]

I have friends who drove 650 miles from Memphis to Roanoke to volunteer for Kilgore.  I got an e-mail from one of them today and he said their GOTV operation is amazing.

Here we go

[Moooooo]

I havent heard much about Kaines GOTV except that he's pouring most if not all of his resources in to NOVA.  The plan is to come out of NOVA with a such an insurmountable lead that Kilgore will never be able to catch up.  I like this idea and I dont like this idea.  Too me it sounds good up paper, but it also sounds an awful lot like 'putting your eggs in one basket'.

And yes the GOP's 72 to hour plan is excellent.  Its pretty much the Democrats Grass Roots campaign from 2000 on steroids.

[Moooooo]

Here is a great analysis put together by a friend of mine at another blog regarding both campaigns GOTV efforts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Moooooo]

My schedule this week blows, so Im not going to be able to make it to VA.  I wanted to get at least one full days worth of work in down there.  Work Today and Tomorrow.  Accounting on Monday and Tuesday Lab.  Im not going to make it. 

[© tweed]

Too me it sounds good up paper, but it also sounds an awful lot like 'putting your eggs in one basket'.

I like it...NOVA is Kaine's only basket.  That's the only region that he can count on winning; spending time in the coal towns of SWVA is a waste of time as they aren't solidly Dem anymore are aren't heavily populated.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm quietly optimistic about Kaine's chances

Dave

[Ben.]

I'm quietly optimistic about Kaine's chances

Dave

Shhh!!! You’ll jinx it  

Personally i think it's just too close to call, the GOP has a darn good ground game and have for the past few years... remains to be seen if Kaine, much as i hope for him to, can overcome it... but i have faith.

[Moooooo]

The fact that Kilgore is bringing people in from out of state could mean one of two things..

1.  He's not getting the support he needs from his base in VA.  Remember that only 80% or so of Republicans are supporting Kilgore while Kaine has the Democratic vote locked up.

2.  People are so motivated by the Kilgore campaign that they're pouring in from all over the country to help out.  I seriously doubt this because Kilgore isnt exactly the most exciting candidate in the country.  I received an email the other day fromt he MD GOP asking for volunteers to help out in NOVA.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm quietly optimistic about Kaine's chances

Dave

Shhh!!! You’ll jinx it  

Personally i think it's just too close to call, the GOP has a darn good ground game and have for the past few years... remains to be seen if Kaine, much as i hope for him to, can overcome it... but i have faith.

You're right it will boil down to whichever candidate best mobilises their support on the ground. Kaine has a small, but steady lead and the last thing Democrats can afford to be is complacent

Kilgore is such a God darn awful candidate, if he wins I'm not sure whether it would be a Greek tragedy or a Roman farce

Why the Virginia Consitution does not allow an incumbent governor to succeed himself, I don't know (Has it always been that way?) because Warner would win re-election big. It would also have improved his presidential aspirations

Dave

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The fact that Kilgore is bringing people in from out of state could mean one of two things..

1.  He's not getting the support he needs from his base in VA.  Remember that only 80% or so of Republicans are supporting Kilgore while Kaine has the Democratic vote locked up.

2.  People are so motivated by the Kilgore campaign that they're pouring in from all over the country to help out.  I seriously doubt this because Kilgore isnt exactly the most exciting candidate in the country.  I received an email the other day fromt he MD GOP asking for volunteers to help out in NOVA.

Actually its:

3.  Because he's a Republican candidate    That's why my friends are going anyway.

I really wanted to go help as well but couldn't as I had some work-related stuff to take care of.

[Moooooo]

Ok, that too. 

[memphis]

Too me it sounds good up paper, but it also sounds an awful lot like 'putting your eggs in one basket'.

I like it...NOVA is Kaine's only basket.  That's the only region that he can count on winning; spending time in the coal towns of SWVA is a waste of time as they aren't solidly Dem anymore are aren't heavily populated.

Kaine will also do well in heavily black areas like Richmond and SE VA. He'd be wise to focus on the Norfolk/Virginia Beach metro area.

[AuH2O]

I'm quietly optimistic about Kaine's chances

Dave

Shhh!!! You’ll jinx it  

Personally i think it's just too close to call, the GOP has a darn good ground game and have for the past few years... remains to be seen if Kaine, much as i hope for him to, can overcome it... but i have faith.

You're right it will boil down to whichever candidate best mobilises their support on the ground. Kaine has a small, but steady lead and the last thing Democrats can afford to be is complacent

Kilgore is such a God darn awful candidate, if he wins I'm not sure whether it would be a Greek tragedy or a Roman farce

Why the Virginia Consitution does not allow an incumbent governor to succeed himself, I don't know (Has it always been that way?) because Warner would win re-election big. It would also have improved his presidential aspirations

Dave

Or, Virginia can maintain a widely praised level of government efficiency, and non-Virginians (and non-Americans for that matter) can not advise Virginians on how to run things.

[Ben.]

I'm quietly optimistic about Kaine's chances

Dave

Shhh!!! You’ll jinx it  

Personally i think it's just too close to call, the GOP has a darn good ground game and have for the past few years... remains to be seen if Kaine, much as i hope for him to, can overcome it... but i have faith.

You're right it will boil down to whichever candidate best mobilises their support on the ground. Kaine has a small, but steady lead and the last thing Democrats can afford to be is complacent

Kilgore is such a God darn awful candidate, if he wins I'm not sure whether it would be a Greek tragedy or a Roman farce

Why the Virginia Consitution does not allow an incumbent governor to succeed himself, I don't know (Has it always been that way?) because Warner would win re-election big. It would also have improved his presidential aspirations

Dave

Or, Virginia can maintain a widely praised level of government efficiency, and non-Virginians (and non-Americans for that matter) can not advise Virginians on how to run things.

People are entitled to have opinions on things that won't directly affect them... witness my championing of David Cameron for the British Conservative Party leadership

And it’s a bit rich when both the GOP and the Dems are shipping activists into Virginia by the lorry load, to try and eek out a win… If that's not  “non-Virginians advising Virginians on how to run things” I don’t know what is.

[jokerman]

I'm still worried about the race, namely:
1. Russel Potts taking away votes from Kaine
2. A very high turnout among social conservatives swinging it to Kilgore.  You can never underestimate their power.