The Presidential Republic - 1938 Chilean Presidential Election
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  The Presidential Republic - 1938 Chilean Presidential Election
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Poll
Question: Who will be elected President?
#1
Pedro Aguirre Cerda (PR)
#2
Gustavo Ross Santa María (PL)
#3
Carlos Ibañez del Campo (APL)
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Partisan results


Author Topic: The Presidential Republic - 1938 Chilean Presidential Election  (Read 743 times)
Lumine
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« on: January 14, 2019, 10:37:26 PM »
« edited: January 14, 2019, 10:42:46 PM by Lumine »


From left to right: Gustavo Ross, Pedro Aguirre Cerda and Carlos Ibañez del Campo
October 1938 - Who will prevail in a three-way race?

Electoral Rules: In 1938 Chile is a Presidential Republic in which the President holds a lot of power, elected for a six-year term (cannot run for re-election until after another term has passed) on a single round election, Congress choosing the President from the top-two candidates if no one recieves more than 50% of the vote. An unwritten rule has Congress award the Presidency to whoever came in first regardless of the size of plurality, a "gentleman's agreement" which may very well be tested in the future.

Prelude: After six years of energetic government, President Arturo Alessandri has managed to repair some of the harsh damage of the Great Depression and restore democracy and constitutional order in Chile during his second term following a dictatorship (1927-1931) and a brief socialist republic (1932). However, this has come at a great cost due to harsh repressive measures to restore order, Alessandri evolving from a center-left reformer to a center-right constitutionalist President and losing much of the popular fervor he once inspired. With extremist forces on the rise, what's next for Chilean democracy?

The Presidential Candidates:

Pedro Aguirre Cerda (PR) - Following a series of internal debates a majority of the Chilean left (Radicals, Communists and most Socialists) has united in the center-lefti to leftist Frente Popular, inspired by the similar experiences in France and Spain. Highly critical of Alessandri's law and order stance and of Ross's economic record (whom they constantly disparage as El Ministro del Hambre[1]), the Frente Popular has nominated the 59-year old Pedro Aguirre Cerda, an eloquent and distinguished politician from the Radical Party as their candidate, seeking to expand towards the center to defeat the right. Aguirre Cerda runs on a platform of substantial educational reform and expansion, an economic agenda of industrialization, protectionism and developmentalism, international support for the Spanish Republic and opposition to fascism.

Gustavo Ross Santa María (PL) - Having served as Alessandri's Minister of Finance for five years, the technocratic and ocassionally tactless Ross is directly responsible for the economic recovery under Alessandri and is nicknamed by his supporters as El mago de las finanzas[2]. A Manchesterian Liberal, Ross is the candidate of the Chilean center-right (represented by the Liberals and the Conservatives) and of continuity towards Alessandri despite the cool relationship between both men. Denuncing Ibañez as a demagogue and the Frente Popular as revolutionaries, Ross portrays himself as the candidate of constitutional law and order as well as economic progress, advocating for an agenda of promotion of national values, modernization of the state, a liberal economic policy focused on exports and staunch anti-communism.

Carlos Ibañez del Campo (APL) - Having ruled Chile as an authoritarian dictator from 1927 to 1931 and presiding over an enormous expansion of public works, state intervention and a nationalist agenda before being forced to stand down after the Great Depression, General Ibañez is back. The most bitter enemy of President Alessandri, Ibañez has reinvented himself as the candidate of both nationalism and the hard-left, charging against Ross as a "corrupt capitalist" and Aguirre Cerda as a "weak moderate" breaking the unity of the true left. Supported by the Alianza Popular Libertadora; a coalition including dissident Socialists, nationalists, independents, Ibañistas and the National Socialist Movement [3], Ibañez is running on a populist and nationalist left platform, advocating for limited nationalization, a social agenda to combat poverty, the end of economic austerity and, despite the support of the Nacistas, an "anti-imperalist and anti-fascist" foreign policy.

Two days.
___________________________________________________

[1] "The Hunger Minister".
[2] "The Wizard of Finances".
[3] The Chilean Nazis, who saw themselves as left-wing.
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Intell
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« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2019, 11:12:47 PM »

Cerda.
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F. Joe Haydn
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2019, 11:40:46 PM »

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PSOL
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2019, 11:43:19 PM »

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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2019, 05:03:56 AM »

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 10:35:50 AM »

Gustavo Ross Santa María. Liberalism or bust (especially in the 1930s)

Also; I'm looking forwards to this TL!
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seb_pard
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 11:20:57 AM »

Pedro Aguirre Cerda!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfUvTP-frY

What a beautiful speech Smiley
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Lumine
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2019, 12:11:15 AM »

Almost a day left, currently a strong Ross lead over the tied Aguirre Cerda and Ibañez.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2019, 03:47:52 PM »

Easy vote for Ross but I'm surprised Aguirre isn't doing better.
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Lumine
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2019, 08:01:30 PM »

1938 Presidential Election


December 1938 - Alessandri and Ross celebrate an unprecedented triumph for the center-right

Presidential Vote:
Gustavo Ross Santa Maria: 58.6%
Pedro Aguirre Cerda: 24.1%
Carlos Ibañez del Campo: 17.2%

Whilst many in La Moneda[1] believed victory to be likely in the coming election due to the accomplishments of the Government - which they believed would outweigh the social backlash -, the campaign entered into full swing around mid-year, with four months to go. All of the three candidates who contested the election had both strengths and challenges of their own to overcome: Ross had the entire government machine behind him, but remained abrasive when campaigning and was extremely divisive when it came to the Liberal and the Conservative youth (the latter of which threatened to bolt); Aguirre Cerda was charismatic and had popular appeal, yet had to move around plenty of rivals within the Radicals and was threatened by Ibañez's campaign; and Ibañez, who had the advantage of energy, appeal across the board and the enthusiasm of the Nacistas was nonetheless dragged down by the memory of his repressive government.

Indeed the months of June to August were spent by all three candidates trying both to expand their bases of support while addressing the internal issues that plagued them. Against expectations it was Ross who proved the more successful on the task after being swayed by Alessandri and other conciliatory members of the right [2] to court the disaffected elements within the right, which the former Minister did by promising limited social action during a future administration and constantly bringing up the dangers of an Ibañez or Popular-Front government. Ibañez also experienced some success, exploiting his new left-wing appeal to essentially have most of the Socialists slowly defect to his candidacy. It was Aguirre Cerda who was to decisively stumble, a disastrous tour of the South heavily compromising his health (and thus ability to campaign) as the Popular-Front began to fall apart in light of Ibañez's unmatched promises and the harsh infighting within the Radicals jockeying for the future cabinet-to-be.

The decisive factors that changed the course of the election could be placed around the first week of September, General Ibañez and his supporters holding a massive Victory March across the capital of Santiago and having thousands of Ibañistas march across the streets demanding the return of the General to power. Such a massive demonstration of popular appeal was to heavily undercut Aguirre Cerda's argument that the Popular Front was the best placed candidacy to bring down the right, and attempts to turn into the left only succeeded in making Ross look more moderate by comparison. And when a ludicrous coup attempt by overeager members of the MNS youth was defused [3] Ibañez faced new questions about his democratic credentials as well, hampering any possible growth.

By October it became clear that Ross and the government held the advantage, successfully promoting both the economic success as well as being the "safe" alternative for order against the disorganized Popular Front and the dangerous General Ibañez, and this was reflected once the results came in. Gustavo Ross had been elected President with an enormous mandate that surpassed Alessandri's own 55% of the vote during the 1932 Election. The Popular Front collapsed amidst much recrimination as Aguirre Cerda failed to break 25% - thus ending his political career -, and while General Ibañez underperformed thanks to the fear and backlash caused by the support of the Chilean nazis, he still achieved a respectable 17% of the vote which made his continued participation in politics a safe bet.

The Chilean center-right had triumphed and extended its mandate for six years. Would Ross prove to be a successful President?
________________________________________

[1] The Presidential Palace.
[2] In OTL Ross took a more hardline attitude, essentially driving the Conservative Youth away from the right.
[3] In OTL a group of young Nacistas (college students) undertook a ridiculous coup attempt after the Victory March, which an infuriated President Alessandri brutally put down as most of the students were gunned down by the Army and the Police. The subsequent backlash for the harsh repression of the coup was to contribute to the left-wing victory that took place in our world.
 
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