GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Pollster]

The significant news out of this story is that the campaign is being taken over by Lou Elrod, a big get with a lot of wins under his belt in GA.

[Adam Griffin]

So much I might say if I were somebody else, but I'm not, so I won't!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

[QAnonKelly]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

[Pollster]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

Agreed, I assume many Dems here are more interested in running statewide on a ticket with Abrams even under a Dem President than with a potentially damaged Presidential nominee and Trump on the ballot.

[QAnonKelly]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

Agreed, I assume many Dems here are more interested in running statewide on a ticket with Abrams even under a Dem President than with a potentially damaged Presidential nominee and Trump on the ballot.

Also seems like it’s gonna be the year the damn finally breaks unless Kemp finds a way to drop a nuke only on Gwinnett County or something.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

[QAnonKelly]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

Yeah that doesn’t mean jack in a racially polarized, ineleastic state. Nothing is going to sop GA on its leftward March, once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.

[Adam Griffin]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I have a theory.

There's a certain level of difficulty/handicaps to factor in that is possibly causing this.

While having a ton of candidates in one race means that your chances of winning the nomination are much lower in that race (assuming they're credible ones), there is no nomination to be had in the other race. Isakson's race will be akin to the LA jungle primary: any and all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with the runoff occurring in January.

The odds of at least 1 or 2 rando Dems jumping in and siphoning off like 0.5-1% each is high (and at least with the former, practically guaranteed; the Ossoff race is probably the best recent example in GA, as is the 2019 LA jungle primary in general). It's very unlikely that there will end up being just 1 Democrat on the ballot for the Isakson jungle primary, even if Lieberman dropped out and one of the credible challengers from the Perdue race jumped ship to this one. It gets exponentially more difficult to win a race in GA as a Democrat with each percentage point you siphon off to either a fellow Democrat or independent in these jungle primary/runoff situations, for obvious reasons (50% +1).

So while in theory it might be nominally harder to knock off Perdue as an incumbent when compared to running in an open race, there's also the fact that you have no way to nail down your party's total endorsement or nomination in said open race - and you'll likely be running against a few random Democrats (and/or independents) who siphon off a few points. That virtually guarantees no outcome other than a runoff, which we would almost certainly lose.

If you want a Senate seat in GA as a Democrat, then you need to win on Election Night in November. I believe there's a better chance of that happening in the Perdue race, and that this is why everybody is clustering to challenge Perdue.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

Yeah that doesn’t mean jack in a racially polarized, ineleastic state. Nothing is going to sop GA on its leftward March, once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.

If Dems can’t win it in 2020 with Trump in the WH and in a Dem year they certainly won’t be able to win it in 2022 .

Their best case scenario would be a repeat of 2020 result but all that would do is hurt the career of a good candidate.

[OneJ]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

All you have to do is look back at 2018 Senate results and see that this isn't a sure a bet by any means. 2018 was a D+8 year and yet it didn't stop McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp from getting the boot. All three of those states were trending away from the Democrats and Georgia is doing the opposite. If anything, 2022 is likely Democrats' best chance considering how polarized this current climate is and Dems just have more realistic pickup opportunities that year even with a Democratic president.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

All you have to do is look back at 2018 Senate results and see that this isn't a sure a bet by any means. 2018 was a D+8 year and yet it didn't stop McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp from getting the boot. All three of those states were trending away from the Democrats and Georgia is doing the opposite. If anything, 2022 is likely Democrats' best chance considering how polarized this current climate is and Dems just have more realistic pickup opportunities that year even with a Democratic president.

That’s is a horrible comparison given how far MO , IN , and ND were already solid R states by then . GA won’t even be where OH was in 2018 by 2022 let alone those 3 states . A better comparison is where MO was in 2006 , for IN was only in Dems hands due to GOP throwing away that seat in 2012 and ND they won it in 2012 due to luck .

[QAnonKelly]

Two years is a long time in a rapidly diversifying state. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take and all...

[ON Progressive]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I have a theory.

There's a certain level of difficulty/handicaps to factor in that is possibly causing this.

While having a ton of candidates in one race means that your chances of winning the nomination are much lower in that race (assuming they're credible ones), there is no nomination to be had in the other race. Isakson's race will be akin to the LA jungle primary: any and all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with the runoff occurring in January.

The odds of at least 1 or 2 rando Dems jumping in and siphoning off like 0.5-1% each is high (and at least with the former, practically guaranteed; the Ossoff race is probably the best recent example in GA, as is the 2019 LA jungle primary in general). It's very unlikely that there will end up being just 1 Democrat on the ballot for the Isakson jungle primary, even if Lieberman dropped out and one of the credible challengers from the Perdue race jumped ship to this one. It gets exponentially more difficult to win a race in GA as a Democrat with each percentage point you siphon off to either a fellow Democrat or independent in these jungle primary/runoff situations, for obvious reasons (50% +1).

So while in theory it might be nominally harder to knock off Perdue as an incumbent when compared to running in an open race, there's also the fact that you have no way to nail down your party's total endorsement or nomination in said open race - and you'll likely be running against a few random Democrats (and/or independents) who siphon off a few points. That virtually guarantees no outcome other than a runoff, which we would almost certainly lose.

If you want a Senate seat in GA as a Democrat, then you need to win on Election Night in November. I believe there's a better chance of that happening in the Perdue race, and that this is why everybody is clustering to challenge Perdue.

That explains the special election, but doesn't explain the terrible recruiting in the Perdue race when the question was about both the special and the Perdue race.

[Adam Griffin]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I have a theory.

There's a certain level of difficulty/handicaps to factor in that is possibly causing this.

While having a ton of candidates in one race means that your chances of winning the nomination are much lower in that race (assuming they're credible ones), there is no nomination to be had in the other race. Isakson's race will be akin to the LA jungle primary: any and all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with the runoff occurring in January.

The odds of at least 1 or 2 rando Dems jumping in and siphoning off like 0.5-1% each is high (and at least with the former, practically guaranteed; the Ossoff race is probably the best recent example in GA, as is the 2019 LA jungle primary in general). It's very unlikely that there will end up being just 1 Democrat on the ballot for the Isakson jungle primary, even if Lieberman dropped out and one of the credible challengers from the Perdue race jumped ship to this one. It gets exponentially more difficult to win a race in GA as a Democrat with each percentage point you siphon off to either a fellow Democrat or independent in these jungle primary/runoff situations, for obvious reasons (50% +1).

So while in theory it might be nominally harder to knock off Perdue as an incumbent when compared to running in an open race, there's also the fact that you have no way to nail down your party's total endorsement or nomination in said open race - and you'll likely be running against a few random Democrats (and/or independents) who siphon off a few points. That virtually guarantees no outcome other than a runoff, which we would almost certainly lose.

If you want a Senate seat in GA as a Democrat, then you need to win on Election Night in November. I believe there's a better chance of that happening in the Perdue race, and that this is why everybody is clustering to challenge Perdue.

That explains the special election, but doesn't explain the terrible recruiting in the Perdue race when the question was about both the special and the Perdue race.

For the other seat, it's pretty simple: there is no tangible bench in Georgia. Virtually every elected Democrat - from city council to State Senate to US House - represents an area that is utterly noncompetitive in general elections. The vast, vast majority of elected Democrats in Georgia represent districts and jurisdictions that are >60% Democratic; the majority represent areas that are >75-80% Democratic. Barring the occasional and random out-county Dixiecrat who's been in office for 20+ years, there is nobody who knows how to win an actually competitive D v R general election in office - and this lack of experience shows in real campaigns.

[Frenchrepublican]

GA-Sen AJC Poll : Perdue has a 51/28 approval rate

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-oppose-ousting-trump-impeachment-trial/0EL17qnjh9HAQfmHNPZ3jM/

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1219254894974119936

[Pericles]

"Charlie Baker is really popular, clearly MA is a safe R state." That poll has impeachment only down 5% (so the state is just over 5% to the right of the nation). The funniest thing is that it also says 47% of Georgians will definitely vote against Trump (while only 44% are definitely for him, with 2% not voting and 8% undecided). Trump's net approval is 4% while his net favorability is -3%. So the results are a bit weird but consistently with a Lean R state.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1219254894974119936

Kemp is not getting 60 percent of the vote but go off. Y'all will believe what you want until it happens and then you'll either pretend you saw it coming or blame the candidate like Trump does.

Abrams is going to raise a sh**t-ton of money in 2022 and huge press that will draw out loads of low propensity POC. The only faction of her coalition she has to worry about is keeping college ed whites in the suburbs as D as they are now. Non-white voters are going to be more of the electorate than they were in 2018, period.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1221583477491019778

Terry's exit likely benefits Ossoff.

[MT Treasurer]

If Dems can’t win it in 2020 with Trump in the WH and in a Dem year they certainly won’t be able to win it in 2022 .

You do realize that GA Democrats did better in 2014 than in 2012?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

[Bidenworth2020]

Terry probably have sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1223343643811106816

Anyway, here's everyones cash. Ossoff leads.

[Skill and Chance]

Terry probably have sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

Yeah, Warnock looks really strong for the other seat, but I still can't imagine Ossoff accomplishing much of anything outside of Atlanta in the GE.