UK local by-elections, 2019

[ObserverIE]

Who knows, but there are two potential explanations: one is that he did better than expected because of Brexit Party hype (name seems Brexity) in leave-voting Gosport, or that he is well known enough locally. The latter seems more likely on paper.

Said candidate stood for the Tories in this ward last year, so mostly the latter.

The Tory candidate was Fijian, which may or may not have made a difference to the more Brexity-inclined voter.

[ObserverIE]

A Peterborough-dominated Holy Word here.

Herefordshire, Ross North

Lib Dem 75.1 (+27.9)
Con 18.7 (-34.1)
Lab 6.2 (+6.2)

South Staffordshire, Wombourne South West

Con 61.5 (359, 325)
Green 16.2 (90)
Lib Dem 14.2 (79)
Lab 8.1 (47, 43)

Lib Dem gain Ross North from Con
Con hold Wombourne South West (previously held unopposed)

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word from Borisovia-to-be is here.

North Kesteven, Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme

Con 48.4 (+4.2)
Lincs Ind 24.2 (+1.3)
Ind Greetham 10.9 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 8.6 (+8.6)
Lab 6.5 (-11.1)
Ind Shanahan-Kluth 1.4

Broxtowe, Stapleford South East

Lib Dem 46.7 (+21.6) (559, 538)
Con 30.3 (-1.0) (380, 331)
Lab 23.0 (-3.5) (322, 219)

North Devon, Chittlehampton

Con 40.0 (+6.9)
Green 30.7 (+20.0)
Lib Dem 27.4 (+27.4)
Lab 2.0 (+2.0)

Con gain Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme from Lincs Ind
Lib Dem gain two in Stapleford South East from Con
Con gain Chittlehampton from Ind

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word for Thursday's by-elections here.

Isle of Wight, Whippingham and Osborne

Con 35.1 (+9.3)
Lib Dem 19.8 (+14.7)
Ind 18.4
Lab 15.6 (+3.6)
Island Ind 6.6 (+6.6)
UKIP 4.5 (+4.5)

Neath Port Talbot, Pelenna

Ind Hurley 47.8
PC 22.9 (-5.2)
Ind Hughes 20.0 (-4.3)
Lab 8.2 (-11.0)
Lib Dem 1.1 (+1.1)

Wandsworth, Furzedown

Lab 49.0 (-15.4)
Lib Dem 24.0 (+19.7)
Con 18.4 (-2.8)
Green 8.6 (-1.5)

Salford, Walkden South

Lab 39.5 (-11.0)
Con 32.2 (-7.8)
Green 12.5 (+7.0)
Lib Dem 8.5 (+4.6)
UKIP 7.3 (+7.3)

South Ribble, Farington West

Con 62.4 (+7.9) (536, 497)
Lab 25.2 (-9.5) (246, 171)
Lib Dem 12.4 (+1.6) (114, 91)

Merton, Cannon Hill

Lib Dem 35.0 (+25.5)
Lab 28.9 (-14.9)
Con 28.6 (-14.2)
Green 5.2 (+5.2)
UKIP 2.2 (+1.7)

Forest of Dean, Newent and Taynton

Lib Dem 27.2 (462, 423, 266)
Con 24.0 (404, 392, 217)
Ind 21.2 (551, 175, 170)
Green 19.8 (306, 282, 251)
Lab 7.8 (110)

Con gain Whippingham and Osborne from Lab elected as Ind
Ind hold Pelenna
Lab gain Walkden South from Con
Lib Dem gain Cannon Hill from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Tonight's Holy Word comes from one of the heartlands of Brexit and can be found here

Mansfield, Sandhurst

Mansfield Ind 42.7 (+9.0)
Lab 33.3 (-8.3)
Con 13.4 (-8.9)
UKIP 10.5 (+10.5)

Mansfield Ind gain Sandhurst from Lab

[ObserverIE]

July 4th's Holy Word is here.

Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda

PC 42.1 (+18.4)
Lab 27.7 (-16.7)
Con 15.1 (+0.8)
Lib Dem 13.2 (-4.5)
Comm 1.9 (+1.9)

Middlesbrough, Park End and Beckfield

Ind Hill 53.0 (-31.2)
Ind James 31.4
Lab 11.9 (+0.1)
Con 2.4 (+2.4)
Lib Dem 1.3 (+1.3)

Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham

Lib Dem 41.6 (+28.4)
Con 30.5 (-35.8)
Ind 23.7
Lab 4.2 (-16.4)

Chorley, Eccleston and Mawdesley

Con 63.2 (+9.0)
Lab 36.8 (+3.8)

PC gain Rhondda from Lab
Ind hold Park End and Beckfield
Lib Dem gain Trowbridge Drynham from Con

[ObserverIE]

Just two contests tonight for which the Holy Word is here.

Herefordshire, Whitecross

It's Our County 60.7 (+13.0)
Lib Dem 28.1 (+10.5)
Con 11.2 (-3.3)

East Riding of Yorkshire, Bridlington North

Lib Dem 42.7 (+42.7)
Con 26.6 (-43.7)
Yorks 11.4 (+11.4)
UKIP 6.4 (+6.4)
Lab 4.4 (-25.3)
Ind Dixon 4.1
Ind Robson 2.5
Ind Milne 1.9

Lib Dem gain Bridlington North from Con

[beesley]

Just two contests tonight for which the Holy Word is here.

Herefordshire, Whitecross

It's Our County 60.7 (+13.0)
Lib Dem 28.1 (+10.5)
Con 11.2 (-3.3)

East Riding of Yorkshire, Bridlington North

Lib Dem 42.7 (+42.7)
Con 26.6 (-43.7)
UKIP 11.4 (+11.4)
Yorks 6.4 (+6.4)
Lab 4.4 (-25.3)
Ind Dixon 4.1
Ind Robson 2.5
Ind Milne 1.9

Lib Dem gain Bridlington North from Con

That Bridlington performance is standout great for the lib Dems. I wonder how it happened?

[IceAgeComing]

you're talking about very low turnout elections that are even more so than normal since both major parties are as popular as the plague right now so even the partisans that'd vote in a local by-election at the start of summer are reconsidering that and that's when you get weird results.  Factor in the possibility for the candidate being a strong candidate and its hardly shocking - this sort of thing is what the Libs used to do all the time.

[beesley]

you're talking about very low turnout elections that are even more so than normal since both major parties are as popular as the plague right now so even the partisans that'd vote in a local by-election at the start of summer are reconsidering that and that's when you get weird results.  Factor in the possibility for the candidate being a strong candidate and its hardly shocking - this sort of thing is what the Libs used to do all the time.

Agreed. I was more interested in what actually happened as opposed to how, just out of curiosity, but you're right.

[ObserverIE]

A midweek trip to Wales here

Cardiff, Cyncoed

Lib Dem 55.3 (+18.0)
Con 24.1 (-12.9)
Lab 16.1 (-1.0)
PC 4.4 (+4.4)

[ObserverIE]

Another trip to a very Welsh part of Wales, followed by a perambulation around England here

Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr (Sulien)

PC 63.3 (-7.3)
Lib Dem 31.6 (+16.3)
Lab 5.1 (-3.6)

Wiltshire, Westbury North

Lib Dem 52.4 (-5.5)
Ind Cunningham 24.8
Con 15.0 (-14.1)
Lab 6.1 (-6.9)
Ind Morland 1.7

Richmond-upon-Thames, East Sheen

Lib Dem 58.9 (+13.0)
Con 35.5 (-12.9)
WEP 2.9 (+2.9)
Lab 2.7 (-3.0)

Daventry, Brixworth

Lib Dem 49.5 (+38.6)
Con 37.3 (-28.1)
Lab 13.2 (-10.5)

Ashford, Downs North

Con 37.4 (-10.0)
Green 31.0 (+7.5)
Lib Dem 11.4 (-7.3)
Ashford Ind 10.9 (+10.9)
UKIP 3.6 (+3.6)
Lab 2.8 (-7.6)
Ind 2.8

Lib Dem hold East Sheen
Lib Dem gain Brixworth from Con

[CumbrianLefty]

Ashford DC is the only council in the country where the LibDems lost their existing representation this May (as opposed to many others where the opposite was the case) The result above fits in with that, and is of course a bit of a contrast to their other showings yesterday.

[Tintrlvr]

Perhaps running a 19-year-old as their candidate was not the smartest move for the Daventry Conservatives, even in what had historically been an ultra-safe seat.

Also a really bad sign for the Tories in Richmond; while it's a Lib Dem hold rather than a gain, that seat was 2 Con, 1 LD in 2018, despite the Tories overall getting wiped out across Richmond, so a big LD majority is ominous.

[CumbrianLefty]

Women's Equality getting a bit excited about outpolling Labour by a few votes in that one

[DaWN]

Women's Equality getting a bit excited about outpolling Labour by a few votes in that one

I mean, if I was an irrelevant single issue minor party and I outpolled the country's main 'opposition' party, I'd probably be fairly pleased about it, even if it is one utterly irrelevant local by-election with very little national significance. Small victories and all that.

[ObserverIE]

The first set of by-elections from the Era of Emperor BozoBoris also features the debut of the Brexit Party and has a Holy Word here

Hartlepool, Hart

Lab 30.5 (-2.3)
Ind Union 29.8 (-37.4)
Green 16.3 (+16.3)
FB 13.8 (+13.8)
UKIP 9.5 (+9.5)

Gloucester, Podsmead

Lib Dem 30.0 (+30.0)
Con 29.6 (-18.4)
Lab 18.0 (-34.0)
Brx 16.4 (+16.4)
Green 4.3 (+4.3)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)

Gloucester, Barnwood

Lib Dem 46.5 (+14.9)
Con 34.1 (-4.3)
Brx 10.5 (+10.5)
Lab 4.4 (-7.2)
Green 4.1 (-1.7)
UKIP 0.4 (-12.2)

Lab win Hart held by Ind elected as Lab
Lib Dem gain Podsmead from Lab
Lib Dem gain Barnwood from Con

[Tintrlvr]

There was also a by-election in the City of London. Typical Ind gain from Ind, though.

[DINGO Joe]

I don't always have time to read the writeups done for these elections, but they are always fascinating and well written.  Kudos to the author.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here

Stockport, Hazel Grove

Lib Dem 45.7 (-2.0)
Con 38.9 (+9.6)
Lab 10.7 (-0.2)
Green 4.6 (+0.2)

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbots

Lib Dem 48.2 (-3.5)
Con 34.5 (+2.8)
Ind 17.3

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Cambridge, Newnham

Lib Dem 59.5 (+9.4)
Lab 18.1 (-9.5)
Green 11.5 (-2.3)
Con 11.0 (+2.5)

East Northamptonshire, Irthlingborough Waterloo

Con 53.1 (-2.3)
Lab 46.9 (+11.7)

Worcester, Claines

Lib Dem 47.6 (+8.2)
Con 45.6 (+3.0)
Green 4.6 (-3.7)
Lab 2.2 (-2.7)

Lib Dem gain Claines from Con

[ObserverIE]

A quick hop in the DeLorean for this week's Holy Word in Sibboleth Country here

Shropshire, Meole

Con 37.6 (-17.8)
Lib Dem 26.5 (+14.4)
Lab 24.6 (-2.9)
Green 11.3 (+6.3)

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word is here

Rugby, Rokeby and Overslade

Lib Dem 56.1 (-8.3)
Con 20.2 (+3.5)
Lab 9.6 (-9.2)
Brx 9.5 (+9.5)
Green 4.6 (+4.6)

[ObserverIE]

Cross-border Holy Word here

Bury, Radcliffe West

Radcliffe First 41.7 (+6.0)
Lab 35.8 (-3.4)
Con 14.3 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 5.7 (+2.8)
UKIP 2.5 (+2.5)

South Lanarkshire, East Kilbride Central North

SNP 46.5 (+4.3)
Lab 20.3 (-11.3)
Con 14.6 (-4.2)
Lib Dem 12.4 (+9.9)
Green 4.5 (+0.6)
UKIP 1.4 (+1.4)
Lbt 0.4 (+0.4)

SNP	1582	1582	1588	1650	1743
Lab	690	692	695	715	837
Con	498	499	513	519	606
Lib Dem	422	424	428	456
Green	153	154	159
UKIP	48	50
Lbt	12

Radcliffe First gain Radcliffe West from Lab
SNP win East Kilbride Central North held by Ind elected as SNP

[Coldstream]

I wonder whether the independent rise in Bury is linked to anger about the football club at all.